5 things to look for in today’s fascinating matchup against Newcastle
Including the tactical battles, springing Saka, defending Almirón, and much more
I’ve had a few days off, and writing is a happy place for me, so I thought I’d fire up another BBQ into the void—albeit one with a shorter shelf life.
Before we begin, I’d like some credit for not titling this “Howe do you beat Newcastle?,” which was my initial impulse.
With that business out of the way, let’s get into it.
Newcastle have been on a tear thanks to a big bag of money, a big gang of dudes, and the brilliant work of manager Eddie Howe. While many forecasted them to still be a year or two away from earnestly challenging for a Champions League place, the signings lifted the levels of the squad immediately, and the disciplined, tireless efforts of their coordinated scheme has compensated for midtable technical quality in a couple positions. Put simply, they’re not coming—they’re here.
Last the two met, Arsenal’s unfortunate lethargy and Newcastle’s impatient ascendancy combined to put a nail in the Gunners’ own Champions League hopes. This time, it’s a pivotal top-of-the-table showdown between two teams who haven’t lost in any of their last 20 combined league matches.
To prepare, let’s dive into my bullshit, starting with some high-level notes on Newcastle’s shape and personnel.
Quick tactical overview
Shape:
Out of possession, they play in a compact, high-pressing 4-3-3 reminiscent of Klopp’s Liverpool, or what Leeds did in the second half against Arsenal. Closer to their net, it transforms into a disciplined mid-block. They are enormous and don’t stop running.
In possession, they often play with Burn tucking into a 3 at the back, and a lot of dynamism and flexibility everywhere else — almost a 3-4-3, but the specific nomenclature doesn’t really matter.
Personnel:
Backline: Sven Botman has been one of the most pivotal signings anywhere in the world. His solidity, and partnership with Fabian Schär, has enabled Howe to play with the boldness he seeks up front. Man Mountain Burn has swung out to the left-back position, and as a CB-hybrid, plays a bit like a B-spec, reverse Ben White (though a little more center-backy, and with less technicality). On the right, Kieran Tripper has been one of the best full-backs in the world in league play: crossing, running, free kicking, and generating endless chances.
Midfield: Bruno Guimarães plays as a smart, flexible iteration of a 6 — impressively passing and aggressively defending while finding opportunities to pounce up front, with the certainty that he’ll be covered. Joelinton covers the LW in ASM’s absence, but is most disruptive these days as a bullying box-to-box midfielder. He’s been immense. Longstaff and/or Willock will likely start otherwise. They both have their qualities, but both may be targets for dispossession.
Attack: Almirón’s been a man possessed, with 9 goals to Grealish’s 2 shots on target (it’s Internet Law that they appear in the same sentence). He is genuinely this fast and skilled, and has been goin’ Bangers Only. There may be some areas Arsenal can focus on to limit his opportunities, however: he’s extremely one-footed, and has notched only 4 assists in his five years at Newcastle. Wilson’s been a great facilitator and scorer at the 9, and there’s a solid drop-off to Wood in my eyes. Saint-Maximin has been easing back from injury, and may not be ready—but is still one of the most fascinating, absurd players to watch anywhere, and was amazing against City. If he’s still a sub, it’ll probably be Joelinton at LW and Willock in midfield.
Keeper: It’s Pope, who leads the league in clean sheets with 9. Newcastle has allowed only two goals in the last 10 games. Opponents may be underperforming, and/or Pope’s 80.1% save percentage (97th percentile) may be due for some regression. Their PSxG/SoT is lowest in the league (0.23 per 90); their opponent’s goals per shot on target are also lowest in the league. They face (and force) low-quality shots. Pope is bold with out-of-box clearances, plays it long, and isn’t on Ramsdale’s level in press-resistance. Nketiah may pester him a bit.
In all, there are effective partnerships throughout the pitch—Wilson and Almirón, Schär and Botman, Bruno and Joelinton, Trippier and whoever he feels like crossing to—and they are then linked up by smart, aggressive players who know their roles. Together, they are third in xG differential (+.77 per 90), behind only City and Arsenal.
Next, here are five things to look out for come game-time.
Thing #1: Who imposes their style?
Like any good City/Liverpool clash in the last few years, the game features two front-foot, aggressive, pressing sides who can’t coexist peacefully:
Two things usually happen in these scenarios:
They both play forward, and it’s a freewheeling, high scoring affair. This happened in the 3-3 Newcastle/City game, which was one of the games of the year.
One decides to sit back a bit and spring on the counter.
It will be interesting to see how the possessional battle unfolds. Based on simple numbers to date, Newcastle have the ball 50.3% of the time, while Arsenal tends to have the ball much more, and for longer sequences.
However disciplined their mid-block, Newcastle looks most dangerous when playing upfield — their “rest defense” is muscular and can immediately win balls back, they are skilled aerially and on second balls, and teams have a lot of trouble getting out of their own third. They’re first in generating high turnovers, with 169.
Gabriel and Saliba will be in a high-pressure situations throughout: maintaining the line, gathering a lot of balls hit behind them, tracking cuts by the wingers, battling it out aerially, and passing through the press. Those reading this are probably hoping that Saliba’s performance has more in common with his dominant pre-World Cup form than the last two games.
Otherwise, Newcastle is solid but less elite in standard build-up, with a few players who can be harried into losing the ball. Bruno’s been a beast, but Pope, Burn, Joelinton, Willock, and Longstaff can all carry potential for miscontrols and dispossessions. As we’ll cover later, they can prefer to skip phases and just drill the ball forward.
For that reason (and others), I don’t expect Arteta to play conservatively, though anything can happen. He may seek tactical tweaks to solidify the left-side defense, but while the game is even, I expect his side to play high and try to impose their will on proceedings, maintaining the ball and keeping Newcastle out of their high-press game, risks and all.
Thing #2: Little Chilli vs. Big Dan Burn
Logic would imply that this is a favorable matchup for Arsenal: the league’s best right-winger on form (IMO) against a 6’7” converted center-back.
It’s a good matchup on tape, too, as you may recall in a Brighton game in late-2020.
Saka receives the ball and Burn floats up from his LCB spot in a back-three to bully him off of it…
…but he’s unsuccessful, and Saka gets away on the turn, as Burn tries to bother him with contact…
…Saka eventually gets all the way to the box, and finds Lacazette for the only goal in the 1-0 win:
Burn is deceptively agile, and now has the luxury of being backed up by Botman, but I’d still expect him to be tested with through-balls and 1v1’s on Tuesday. I’d imagine some tactical fouls in the offing, so here’s to hoping the state of refereeing-on-Saka turns a new page. I’m not all that hopeful.
Thing #3: The Arsenal defensive left vs. the Newcastle attacking right
The Newcastle right-wing poses a similar problem for Arsenal. Almirón leads all Premier League wingers in goals, Wilson likes swinging to the right, and Tripper has been one of the most dangerous playmakers in the league (with 4.67 shot-creating actions per 90 — good for 99th percentile). There’s a good chance the game is decided over here.
Almirón’s last league goal is a good example of what they can do.
Tripper picks it over the top into space for Almirón to dash into (it seems like every Newcastle player has this pass in their repertoire)…
…after cutting in with the ball, Almirón gives it to Bruno — and words can’t describe how immediate and explosive his cut inside is…
…Bruno simply one touches it through a packed line, and Almirón blasts it home:
Tracking these 1-2 runs, and making them immediately as Almirón does, will require the joint efforts of Gabriel, Zinchenko, and a dropping Xhaka. The assignment is simple if devastatingly hard: force him to his right to the bitter end, ignore his passes and keep running with him, and if he beats you outside the box again, so be it.
Also a problem over there: Trippier’s crosses. He knocks in 9.45 crosses a game, also good for 99th percentile. Arsenal should be on-guard for second-sequences on corners. Many of the other crosses are simple overlaps executed well.
Trippier plays it to Longstaff, sees the opening, and sprints for an overlap…
…and pops it far-post for a good chance.
Again, nothing surprising schematically — just perfectly placed, voluminous crosses.
Thing #4: Ødegaard’s incisive balls against a mid-block
I’m a fan of modern mid-blocks in general: it compresses the play area for the opponent, keeps them further away from the goal, and forces them to place perfect passes between the back-line and the keeper.
There’s a reason why so few players have been able to break Newcastle’s down, and why opponent highlights are so hard to find. And there’s a reason why, when incisive passes do happen, they’re by recognizable names. They require a bit of skill.
Enter Mr. Silva, crossing against the mid-block for a Gündoğan goal:
Enter KDB, who nutmegged ‘em to find Mr. Silva doing a cheeky cut:
Ødegaard has proven himself to be on anyone’s level as a passer, and in the last two, there have been several similar line-breaking opportunities to Xhaka and Martinelli. There are fine margins for a reason. Take advantage, and you win.
Thing #5: Newcastle skipping the line
Newcastle aren’t the passingest team — they’re 14th in the table in passes completed with 354.1 per 90, and 14th in passing percentage (77%). For comparison, Arsenal passes over 100 times more than them per game, with the Magpies having the highest "direct speed" in the league, attacking forward at 1.55 meters per second.
Howe seeks to do this in three ways:
Winning the ball via pressing, as we’ve covered.
Using Pope and others to dump the ball over the top to the LW and RW spots, so that wingers can either get the ball or try to win it on the counter. These are mistake-generators.
Having Botman and Schär skip lines and pass directly to the striker spot, likely Wilson.
In a sleepy moment against Tottenham, Schär just played it over the top to Wilson, who forced Lloris into a mistake and slotted it home:
As we covered earlier, Saliba and Gabriel will be under pressure, and having composure while tracking these balls — heavily supported by Ramsdale — will be critical.
Some other areas of intrigue:
The press resistance of the back four and Partey: It’ll be interesting how much Arsenal looks to play out the back (vs. play it long with Ramsdale, etc). Playing out from Alisson, Firmino had a beautiful goal against Newcastle thanks to a line-breaker from Fabinho, which is something Partey could replicate. Zinchenko was deeply missed against Leeds, and as we saw in their scoreless draw this week, Newcastle can press like “Leeds with better players.”
The battle of the set pieces: Thanks to Trippier and his merry band of giants, they have the highest shot-creating actions per 90 based on dead balls like free kicks and corners (2.82 per 90). It’s a clash of titans here.
Who wins on the dribble? Newcastle’s very hugeness is vulnerable to the likes of Martinelli. They give up 1.29 shot-creating actions per 90 off the dribble, second-worst in the league (behind Leeds). They get dribbled past 7.29 times per 90, also second-worst. Oddly, they have the lowest dribbling success rate in the league (33.8%), but the highest rate of goals off the dribble (.29 per 90), thanks to Almirón (and, in limited time, Allan Saint-Maximin).
Aerial battles: It’s been mentioned in spurts throughout, but it deserves its own bullet. Aerial battles and clearances are a large part of any Newcastle matchup, and will be today.
OK, enough typing. Let’s bring this thing home.
🔥 My take 🔥
Finally, I’ll offer my bullshitty cosplay as Arsenal manager. Here are my impulses on a gameplan.
Newcastle is a rare opponent that can match Arsenal in terms of work-rate, positional fluidity, and tactical know-how. So where’s the advantage? I’d peg the talent differential in Arsenal’s favor. Because of this, I would consider embracing similarities with Newcastle in terms of broad tactical principles, and trust talent (and the home crowd) to make the difference.
In defense, that means seeking high possession in an active 4-4-2 press, with Ødegaard and Nketiah up top offering few moments of respite, and particularly keying in on hassling Pope, Burn, and Longstaff. I’d rely heavily on Xhaka’s work rate, asking him to skip build-up and essentially play way up (in attack), or way back (in defense), as he did against Liverpool.
In possession, I’d lean more towards a 3-2-5 (rather than always evolving into a 2-3-5 moving forward), with White staying home a little more often. Doing so enables a few things. First, it allows Zinchenko to be Zinchenko on the left: steadying possession, counterpressing, freelancing, and keeping Tripper pinned deep as he deals with wide triangles with Martinelli. Secondly, it allows better matchups than Zinchenko-on-Almirón: Gabriel can focus on him, Saliba on Wilson, and White on the right-winger (ASM or Joelinton). In transition, Xhaka and Zinchenko’s ability to get back and crowd the area will loom large.
From there, this seems like a good game for Nketiah to show off his new skills. In recent contests, he’s shown an ability to drop deep and field “up-back-through” balls directly from Ramsdale. For example, it’d be great to see him accept a ball from the back-line or keeper, tap it back to Partey, and have Partey hit a through-ball behind Burn to Saka. There also may be an opportunity to beat their back pair with tight-space agility or rebounds.
Scoring first will, as always, be great — particularly against this squad, who is proudly and annoyingly shameless in the time-wasting department.
This will be a big test for both squads, who are sizzling. Newcastle is high-energy, well-coached, excellent on crosses and in the air, and have been a vise grip defensively. Breaking that grip will go a long way in the forthcoming hunt.
OK, that’s probably the last BBQ for a week-plus. Off to nap.
Have a great one, all.
And happy grilling.
🔥