A look-see into RCB
What we learned from Kiwior playing at right-CB, plus: diving deeper on 5 players Arsenal may consider signing at the position in the summer
There’s an Instagram-ready, coachspeak phrase that goes something like this: “We don’t lose. We either win, or we learn.”
Whenever I hear that — or, more likely, whenever I see it etched in papyrus across a stock photo of the Andes Mountains or whatever — I always think of a third option, which my simple brain considers superior: what if we can learn without having to lose?
That’s what Arsenal did on Tuesday, beating Chelsea in a game that featured three key changes. After a conclusively disappointing performance against Manchester City, it was Jorginho in for Partey, Trossard in for Martinelli, and, notably, Jakub Kiwior in for Holding.
Let’s talk about that last one. After all, Arsenal won. But what did we learn?
Amidst an injury crisis in back, new signing Jakub Kiwior was largely held on standby for two reasons.
First, he was brand new. Arriving in a £17.5million transfer with ready-apparent athletic gifts and a slightly uneven CV that was nonetheless trending up and to the right, he made his debut in the U21’s against Chelsea. He looked, well, pretty sick. (The good kind of sick, not the Xhaka-vs-Soton kind of sick). He showed composure in back and had some eye-popping, effortless changes of play that cooly displayed that little extra something that popped from his Spezia tape.
It’s been less linear since then, with a performance on debut against Sporting CP in the Europa League that is probably disproportionately remembered for him failing to jump on a corner ball (that Matt Turner may have called for). He nonetheless went 46-for-48 passing, and showed some glimmers, if not imposition, at LCB. From there, he joined for 5 solid minutes at Crystal Palace, and got 11 minutes of bewildering time at Liverpool, playing lungy and direct in the middle of a 5-back that unsuccessfully tried to seal a frenetic game.
So his newness is the first reason he’s been slow-cooked. The second? His left foot. The injury crisis has disproportionately impacted the right side, and Arteta has been understandably hesitant to deploy two left-footed CB’s, opting instead for ‘ole stalwart Rob Holding. At long last, the Man City shellacking forced him to try something new.
It was a cushy landing spot for Kiwior, it must be said. Chelsea have been a catastrophe. On their fourth manager, they are somehow continuing to regress, and for most of the game on Tuesday, they method-acted their roles as jaded footballers to perfection. The stars aligned for Kiwior: the Blues’ lazy, disorganized press has recently transformed into a non-existent one; and their lethargic attack scored one (1) goal in April. Those two factors gave Kiwior plenty of room for error.
He got pretty involved early.
At 12’, he (correctly) stepped up to win a header over Aubameyang. He tapped it to Jorginho, who was drifting away from the play, and Chelsea picked it up with the opportunity to counter with Kiwior out of the picture.
Kovačić plays it out to Sterling, with Kanté and Auba sprinting up the middle. They have numbers, and Kanté has ~4 steps on Kiwior. You’ll also notice that Kiwior is even with Madueke laterally:
…by our next frame, Kiwior has nearly closed the gap on Kanté, and also pulled ahead of Madueke, a blazing winger, despite also bending his run horizontally:
By the time the ball rolls in, Kiwior is able to calmly dispatch it — not clear it. On the first touch, he taps it into space for Jorginho, who starts a counter the other way:
There’s plenty of speculation about the potential of Kiwior, but this is one way in which that potential is already humming. I can only think of 3 or 4 CB’s anywhere with his kind of recovery speed. It’s world-class.
Kiwior has Brembo brakes, too.
A little later, he’s sprinting with Chilwell as Sterling tries to ship a cheeky pass in behind them both:
Kiwior is able to read it first, and stop about ~5 yards faster than Chilwell, which helps him pick up the ball off a frustrated Sterling:
Meanwhile, his passing radius was efficient, if somewhat conservative:
As one would expect, he did have a left lean. In all, he exchanged 28 passes with Gabriel and 17 with Benjamin White. Last time against Chelsea, for example, Saliba passed 17 times to Gabriel, and 21 times to White.
His game was not without any youthful moments of inexactitude. He probably got sucked too far in the middle during a Chilwell break and shot on target. In the late stages, he got caught off balance and shoved down by Kai Havertz.
But it was hard to expect much more. He even almost scored on one. Said Arteta:
“He looked ready, he looked fresh, he looked really determined. He’s been getting better and better every single day, not only in training but his interaction and his language. He’s more settled and he’s a player that I really like, that’s why I signed him. He has the potential at his age to be great and he had a big task against the players he had to face today, and I think he did really well.”
So what did we learn?
Kiwior is indeed capable of playing in the Premier League with some of the composure and assertiveness that we saw at Spezia.
He is also capable of providing emergency depth at RCB. Though he is good with both feet, his bodyshape and demeanor naturally (and understandably) leans left, which may make him a press trigger in future weeks.
He is easing in, and yet to show his full potential as a passer — which is a high ceiling to reach. He’s also gaining comfort with anticipating the moves of his teammates, and vice versa. There were a couple minor miscommunications.
While this game offers ample reason for hope moving forward, I’d caution against extrapolating this result backwards. As an opponent, Chelsea offered less pressure, less offensive tempo, and less clinicism than recent games — and literally 0 “smart passes.” They were no Liverpool or Man City, sure; but they were no West Ham or Soton, either. They had no coherent vision for securing a victory.
That first clip was an early reinforcement of what a player like Kiwior can offer. By having the recovery speed to play backwards when needed, he can have the confidence to play forward. It may go belly-up, but I’m comfortable with him playing at Newcastle.
But he is not the long-term solution as a backup RCB.
Neither, it feels fair to say, is Holding. Who might be on that list?
An initial shortlist at RCB
Analyzing centre-backs through statistics is a famously aimless endeavor. A stat that may seem like it shows quality — like, say, “successful defensive actions per 90” — probably is more tightly correlated with a player’s team sucking than anything else.
But that shouldn’t stop us from trying. So here’s what I did:
Pulled a worldwide list of 83 right-footed players who had played RCB this year and were under the age of 30.
Grabbed age, transfermarkt value, minutes played, and the like.
Incorporated about 20 statistics that were more in a player’s control (dueling efficiency, aerial duels, possession-adjusted interceptions, progressive passing, short passing percentage, etc).
Included some baseline FotMob ratings to help normalize.
I then took those numbers and ran a Pearson correlation coefficient to see how a player’s performance matches up against that of the gold standard: William Saliba.
From there, it’s a narrow corridor. The team must find a player who meets a few criteria:
Ability: Superlative technical and athletic attributes to win duels, maintain a high line, and break that of the opponent via passes
Readiness: Can faithfully start Champions League games next year, as needed
Timing: Current career stage belies comfort in being a rotational option behind (or alongside) two locked-in starters
Value: The team will be well-served being somewhat thrifty here, as big spending is more likely to be directed at other positions
Without those last two bullets, here would be my choice:
He’d be a wonderful addition in a pretty uncomplicated way, but he’s probably too pricey for such a search. The same probably goes for the likes of Kim Min-Jae, Mohamed Simakan, and Fikayo Tomori; though they may each have stylistic concerns in any case — what am I saying, Kim stands above those other two at RCB, and any team should take him in a heartbeat — they are unlikely to leave for a supporting role and under 50m.
The same is likely true for Armel Bella-Kotchap. Only 21, he is a star going to command a hefty fee, and rightfully so — but his passing game is still a work-in-progress, which changes the risk assessment for a fee like that from Arsenal. I’d be overjoyed about him joining, but see better fits elsewhere.
So who fits the bill? Here are my choices, which are subject to change in the months to come.
1. Josip Šutalo, Dinamo Zagreb
Remember how I was talking about how I built a statistical measure to judge a player’s “Salibaness,” using measures like dueling, recoveries, and progressive passing? Before league-adjusting, Saliba himself didn’t finish first in the measure — Šutalo did. It was in Croatia, not the Premier League, but still: this motherfucker out-Saliba’d Saliba.
I pulled these numbers a couple weeks back; at that point, I had seen him here and there, but never studied his game. As the numbers piqued my interest, I started going through a few of his old games, and around that time, some reported links to the Croatian defender started surfacing. It’s fairly clear that my statistical browsing history moves markets.
In any case, on tape, it’s easy to see what the team may find appealing here. There’s a passing cadence that looks warmly familiar: probe, recycle, probe, recycle, line-break. Šutalo has a tremendous judgement for dictating pace, showing both patience and directness when the time is right. It results in a truly efficient game: check out that 94.2% passing rate, including 96.91% in the short/medium range.
When it’s time for the line-breakers, he often adjusts his body-shape to manipulate defenders and open up desired lanes. (Saliba does this well, but Ødegaard is the king). He’s big, strong, and fast, and is experienced in different types of play. He plays as a modern, possessional RCB with Croatia alongside Gvardiol, with Modrić and Brozovic often serving as direct links. In Champions League Group E (with Milan, Chelsea, and Salzburg), he often helmed the middle CB of a back-3 — I’ve only rewatched his game against Chelsea, and he looked pretty great. In the HNL (Croatian Football League), he’s a RCB in a back-4: playing dominant, possessional football with a high line and tons of touches.
While a good athlete, he’s not quite in the Saliba tier, and doesn’t always feel huge; he sometimes doesn’t show the bullying characteristics of a demoralizing CB (I saw some turning on shot-blocks, which is always a pet peeve of mine). But I just love how he approaches the passing game. As far as his passing bag, trajectory, potential star quality, age, experience, comfort in scheme, and value — he checks every single box.
2. Anel Ahmedhodžić, Sheffield United
May I confess my priors? Second is a compromise here. Ahmedhodžić may appear fourth or fifth on this list if I were purely going with my head; but he’s first in my heart. He’s one of the most enjoyable defenders to watch anywhere.
Joining from a relegated Bordeaux, the 24-year-old is a pivotal reason for Sheffield United’s rise in fortunes, including a promotion to the Premier League (with three games to spare) and a FA Cup run that took them to the semi-finals through Wrexham, Tottenham, and Blackburn, only getting bounced by Man City. He has a reasonable (if disputed) claim as the best player in the Championship this year.
His star qualities showed up immediately. He’s giant (probably 6-5), fast, and a frontline-quality dribbler, with some Declan Rice in his game there. As the rightmost CB in a back-3, he plays the role of “overlapping CB,” which is almost a hybrid inverted RB role that sees him carry the ball forward and create overloads in the box. His nose for goal has resulted in 8 G+A, including expected set piece headers, and some real highlight reel bangers in pivotal moments. Behold this cut and 1-2 against Wrexham.
But his most likable quality may be his defensive activity. His closing speed allows him all kinds of opportunities to be aggressive, and I’ve never seen him anything but switched on. I saw him match every step with Julián Álvarez; I saw Haaland do those give-and-go’s where he bursts into space, and Ahmedhodžić kept up every time. I saw him lock down Son Heung-min, and was probably the best player on the pitch for that one, winning 8/9 duels, 4/6 aerial duels, and making 19 recoveries. He directly faced off the likes of Messi and Mbappé in France, though I haven’t watched those in full, but the highlights are nice. He’s lanky but still leans into people, and his last-ditch challenges seem to result in a block every time.
So what’s the catch? The single quality that Arteta and Co may prize the most in this position — progressive passing — is one of the only bits of “insufficient data” he carries. At United, he plays a very forward-leaning role in attack, and is not the dominant hub of possession like others on this list, but is more likely to receive progressive passes. As a result, his touches in the attacking third trounce the other players in the sample, but his passing quantity and accuracy are lower.
The situation requires some sleuthing. For example, here was his performance in Ligue 1 at Bordeaux, where he often lined up as a high-quantity, possessional LCB:
Wyscout has him passing at 91.2% in Ligue 1 last year. Playing for Malmö in Sweden before that, he showed every kind of pass as a more typical RCB in a back-4. Likewise, his work for Bosnia and Herzegovina shows accurate, voluminous progressive passing in different roles — sometimes with 3 CB’s, sometimes with 2.
Moreover, his touch and technique seem to meaningfully project a player who would be comfortable with a lot of touches, though he can be impatient to move it forward at times.
With the right vision and support, he’s a potential superstar, and one I’d be more than comfortable sliding into the White role as well. There is some risk that is unique attributes don’t ultimately translate, but it feels like one worth taking to me.
3. Marc Guéhi, Crystal Palace
I’m of two minds with Guéhi. On one hand, he is the highest-floor player in this set: he is already an excellent Premier League defender; he is a leader who has captained England’s U21’s and Crystal Palace alike; he is probably the best ground-dueler as well; and he can capably play RCB and LCB, and you’d have zero worries about seeing him in the teamsheet. Given how he acts and how he plays, it’s a miracle he’s still 22 — he looks every part the seasoned veteran.
It’s ultimately about price here, because on the other hand, Crystal Palace would be well within their rights to ask for the moon, given his early, durable production. My problem, given that? I see so many good and thoughtful moments, but few spectacular ones. He’s a capable, accurate passer, and I like his switches in particular. Against Newcastle, he rushed touches and almost got himself sent off in the first half. He’s not tall for a CB and is 13th percentile at aerials won; I worry that’s a sensitive equilibrium, given the aerial shortages on much of the Arsenal roster, and the underperformance (relative to height and athletic ability) of current Arsenal CB’s on aerial duels to date.
In all, I love him as a player — particularly in the 20-35m range. Once it starts going past that, I start asking myself if there are better ways to distribute that money, and wondering whether Guéhi would take a role as a third CB. It’s hard to project.
4. Robin Le Normand, Real Sociedad
At 26, Le Normand is a more advanced (if late-developing) prospect, starting most games for Real Sociedad over the past three years. In many ways, he looks like a prototype RCB: tall, jacked, and able to keep up with LaLiga attackers without much issue. He’s an engaged defender, and fairly dominant aerially: willing 69% of his duels (nice), including 3.14 per 90.
His passing is a little different than others. He handles a lot of touches for a lovable side, but is least impressive in the short game (89.6% completion isn’t high). When things open up, he can be truly progressive, completing 27/29 medium-length passes per 90 on average, which is impressive; he’s also 71.6% on long-balls, which puts him in the 90th percentile. His “level,” advanced passing, aerial win rate, and role experience all portend well for a potential fit. I have minor concerns about his short passing and whether his speed is quite enough in a faster league.
5. Ousmane Diomande, Sporting CP
Diomandé is enjoying a meteoric rise. This is justified, as he has a rare profile. He’s huge, technical, ambipedal, fast, clever, aggressive, and still only 19. In so many words, he is already a grown-ass man.
He’s had a brief, winding, somewhat confusing development path, with Midtjylland loaning him to Mafra, then transferring him to Sporting CP for €7.50m before ever making his debut in Denmark (and amidst reported interest by Man City and Arsenal).
Coming up, he played plenty of LCB, and started out across the backline for Mafra, including games at LB. He’s settled in at Sporting; you’ll remember a solid all-around performance against Arsenal. He followed that up with an 118-pass game against Santa Clara in a 3-0 win, and starts across competitions, mostly in the RCB role in a back three. He was recently 68-of-71 passing against Vitória Guimarães.
It’s very early days, and he still has under 1000 senior minutes under his belt. Despite being spoiled with the likes of Gabriel and Saliba, centre-back is a slow-cooked position that tends to peak around 27. He’s got abundant talent, but he’s still prone to some loose touches and impatience as he feels out the game, and will have to learn the patterns of a back-4.
Just about my only concern here is the third factor we mentioned here, timing: Arsenal need an immediate option, and that may be putting too much on Diomandé, too soon. If the immediate burden can be lifted — either though a true rotation option at RB that allows White to gain meaningful time back at CB again, or otherwise (like a loan) — then I’m all-in on this one.
Next: As I said, I’ve got about ~70 other players on this list I’ve been going through, and will probably do a full ranking in the early summer. Among those, here’s who have recently caught my eye:
I’ve watched a ton of Lutsharel Geertruida this year, who reminds me a lot of Mr. Blanco as he slid into RB for Feyenoord: ball-playing, smart, aggressive, active, and strong. I’ve heard he’s just as good at CB, but feel like I’ve gotta go back and watch some more tape before giving my endorsement. Two Benjamin Whites may be just what the doctor ordered … Axel Disasi is very close to the sweet spot when it comes to experience, size, and skill. He's an excellent dribbler but his short-passing numbers aren't great ... I’ve lost track of Jean-Clair Todibo, and gotta go back and watch how he’s progressing. Love him as a passer, and he may be perfect … At Burnley, Taylor Harwood-Bellis has been plenty dominant in a Kompany side that plays similarly to Arsenal … Likewise, Nathan Collins seems to have all the tools, and is in the right zone of development. I just haven’t been as impressed with him this year … Giorgio Scalvini should probably be higher on this list, but I naturally don’t get my hopes up about Italians leaving Italy. Like Diomandé, he looks like a lab creation. At 19, he’s already doing exceptional things in Serie A for Atalanta, and starting most games along the way. He feels, hm, expensive … Emmanuel Agbadou looked special against PSG and has every tool, and is developing nicely at 25 — with some progression left to go … André Amaro is already looking pretty beastly at Vitória SC, perhaps flying under the radar … Junior Mwanga is one for the future. He’s got a perfect profile for Arteta-ball … I love how Christopher Wooh is developing for Rennes … Oumar Solet is dominating in his third year at Salzburg, and has some real star qualities … Purely at RB, it’s a coinflip between Arnau Martínez and Iván Fresneda for me, but I feel Martínez offers legitimate CB depth. He plays big and is so mature … I mentioned my love for Ahmedhodžić. Caleb Okoli falls into that category, too. I love watching him play, but I’m not sure how logical it is … Ibrahima Bamba is developing nicely as an affordable, CB/DM hybrid that could offer depth at multiple positions … Some others I’m looking at: Loïc Badé, Nordi Mukiele, and Nicolò Casale.
That’s still an insufficient list. More on those players, and many others, later. For now, my family beckons me for a meal.
Be good out there.
And happy grilling. ❤️