On building chemistry under pressure, Madueke’s fresh legs, Gyökeres and the Pinnock Test, Hincapié’s trial by fire, and the ripple effects of Saliba’s absence
“All lies and jest Still, a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest” — Simon and Garfunkel
The first three questions of Mikel Arteta’s pre-Everton press conference were seeking injury updates. It felt apt. If there’s anything that unifies this period, it’s a) the overlapping factors of fatigue, injuries, and absences, and b) the new connections that must be nurtured as a result.
I’d already written about Column A at length, so I spent this period reading and thinking about these new connections: how they form and strengthen and evolve.
I started the winger report with the syrupy tale of Bruce Springsteen meeting Clarence Clemons. It involved thunder, lightning, a nor’easter, and a hulking colossus of a man ripping a door off its handle.
“Bruce and I looked at each other and didn’t say anything. We just knew,” Clemons said. “We knew we were the missing links in each other’s lives.”
But it’s not always so easy or cinematic, and creative relationships are not always love at first sight. One example happened in 1995, when two budding computer scientists “clashed incessantly” upon meeting, finding each other “obnoxious.” Then, they started Google together.
Forming: At the beginning, teams are optimistic but uncertain. As Judith Stein writes in her summary of Tuckman’s work on MIT’s site (where I found it, in truth), members feel a sense of excitement tinged with anxiety. The work here is all about laying out structure.
Storming: Reality bites. Like anybody in month three of a new job, teams shift from early enthusiasm to something weightier and more complicated. Per Stein: “As the team begins to move towards its goals, members discover that the team can’t live up to all of their early excitement and expectations.” Some natural conflict is inevitable, so the team has to navigate whether it can confront it without breaking apart.
Norming: Here, “team members begin to resolve the discrepancy they felt between their individual expectations and the reality of the team's experience.” Norms start to solidify and leadership shifts from one loud voice to a more shared idea. Everybody starts to feel more comfortable surfacing their “real” selves.
Performing: The team begins to function at a high level. Stein describes a group that feels “greater than the sum of its parts.” But, and this is important: she stresses this isn’t permanent. Changes in people or context can push teams back into earlier stages.
Arteta has stressed the importance of these relationships time and time again. One press conference, from the early Havertz days, springs to mind.
“We are seeing a lot of things, I think the team gives you a lot of information every day and some connections and some relationships that you didn’t expect and you feel and look at what is happening there and it’s natural. We have to have the eyes open to that and don’t just close the door to something because sometimes it’s not the best thing to do.”
You don’t know how these relationships are going to go until you see them in action, and even then, it often takes time.
That’s what can be hard to capture when we talk about “rotation” or “injury crises” in the abstract. There are minutes lost, sure, but there’s something else. Even if it’s only in particular sections of the pitch, every new absence can shove you back down the ladder: back to forming, back to storming, back to the possibility of slightly late jumps, slightly mistimed cues, back to players pointing at each other mid-phase.
This piece is really about that ladder: the new entrants, the little partnerships that are forming, the habits that have to be learned in the most public way possible, and where we go from here.
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👉 Madueke: fresh legs and healthy delusion
Let us cast away the complications of Wolves for the moment and revel in simpler times: the Club Brugge game three days prior.
“You’re not gonna go on the pitch and play Messi, and in your head be like, ‘Oh, this guy’s so much better than me.’ You have to have a little bit of healthy delusion,” Noni Madueke toldGQ. “When that delusion comes in, we’re calling it healthy delusion, but it’s probably extreme faith in your ability, I feel like that’s when you can really reach new heights.”
The idea of signing him was reinforced by his statistical profile:
He had the most progressive carries out of anyone with 20+ 90s in Europe.
He took 3.54 shots per 90, which was the highest out of all wingers in the league.
His pure take-on stats were in the 75th-84th percentile of wingers.
In short: carries, shots, and potentially a few other intriguing possibilities. He was a telling avatar into the beginning of the Berta era, in which public opinion was ignored, the concept of a Best XI felt antiquated, and depth (and performance pressure) came from all angles.
The Berta profile started with a different quote, this one from Moneyball:
“It’s a problem you think we need to explain ourselves. Don’t. To anyone.”
His absence was felt in the second half against Sunderland, in which a thin squad was outright gassed, no subs were made in the first 88 minutes, and the team desperately needed some outlet, any outlet.
The flipside was seen against Bayern. The Bavarians were missing their legs after Luis Díaz was suspended, and Musiala and Davies were recovering from long-term injuries. I wrote before the game that Arsenal could expect to push the advantage late.
In general, test recovery pace (and agility) in wide areas. This will compound over the game: because of their injuries/suspensions, our late legs are better than theirs’ (Martinelli, Madueke, etc).
Those extra legs, that unified theory of the summer, paid off.
Martinelli, Madueke, and Calafiori immediately helped create the second goal.
Then, a spry, onrushing Martinelli dispatched the third on a ball from Eze.
The subs also paid off momentarily against Villa, in which Arsenal’s initial thrust was overwhelming, and Trossard scored within seven minutes of coming on. Many questioned subbing off Saka at 79’ in that one, as Saka seemed our best chance at a goal. This idea was reinforced when he single-footedly saved the result against Wolves. We can acknowledge that reality, while carrying the scars of studies like this in the back of our heads.
In two-match congestion cycles, incidence rate ratios (IRR) showed that there was a higher risk of injury in the final 15 min of play in the second match in comparison to match-play outside the cycles (IRR: 3.1 (95% CI 1.1 to 9.3), p=0.0400)
As the Villa game progressed, though, the fresh legs of Trossard and Gyökeres looked less fresh, and Madueke was never able to impose himself on proceedings. The characteristics were different from Sunderland: Saliba and Gabriel played until the end in that one, but the patchwork backline facing Villa resorted to hoofball, and Gyökeres couldn’t make it stick. (We’ll regroup on that as you scroll.) For Madueke, Arteta has hinted at “consistency” being the big focus moving forward.
“We need to have those standards and play consistently. It’s not a game, it’s two games, three games. Can you do it ten games in a row, every three days and that’s the level that we have to hit.”
With so many games piled up in short succession, key players needed a rest against Club Brugge. (Remember what we said about two-match congestion cycles.)
This was the basic setup, with Madueke out on the chalk.
The opening stanza was fairly quiet. It became preposterously loud in an instant, as Madueke nailed one of the goals of the season.
I showed you that in full, but let’s zoom in on the inciting incident (the initial duel) to see what we can find.
There’s a lot to glean there. We’ll call back on these themes later.
His body isn’t square. His hips are side-on to the defender, creating a barrier between the defender and the ball. I’ve heard that be called “padlocking.” Really, it’s just shielding.
The really key thing to watch is the hand movement. A lot of players fail to use their hands much at all. Others devolve into clumsy shoving matches. This is the perfect use: first, his hands are like antennae. They’re feeling out what the opponent is doing so that nothing will surprise him. Then, they’re simply a way to create leverage and separation.
His knees are bent, and he’s using all kinds of tidy little control touches.
The result is that during the entire battle, Noni is the alpha. He has the high ground and controls the distance. Without much force, the defender winds up on his backside, and Madueke is sprinting off to score.
His quick acceleration is awfully helpful.
Within 20 seconds of the second half whistle, Madueke scored again, this time on a back-post run that wasn’t all that different from the one against Bayern. He responded quickly to the prospect of a left-footed Zubimendi cross, and the defender got sucked into an embarrassing moment.
The week before, he’d started quite strong against Brentford, gobbling up yards and threatening 1v1 before slowing down as the game wore on. He was still plenty fresh when delivering the cheeky ball for White’s overlap.
It sadly looks like White will be out for a month-plus. I think it’s right to question whether he should have started again against Wolves.
The theme, after all, of this period is a) injuries and b) new connections. I think White is one of the most helpful players imaginable for a new entrant to associate with: he’s crisp, technical, tireless, predictable, and helpful. He’s just an easy player to play with. What a shame.
“Unbelievable goal. When you talk about individual quality, individual action, a magic moment, that’s it. A player that is able to pick the ball that far, dribble past people and finish with the quality and the power that he’s done.”
There’s just something really interesting about him. (As an aside: the Salah situation came up in the #groupchat, so I said my position is that Salah is someone who has shown himself to carry an almost psychotic level of self-belief over and over, even when his career wasn’t going well, and he managed to make all those weird delusions real. There’s something absurd about thinking you can be a historically-great player and then doing it, and you can’t expect that level of belief to just magically evaporate overnight. I’m not defending his reaction to anything, but if you bench a player like Salah (or Ronaldo, or Jordan, or whoever), there is a roughly 100% chance he was going to react like that. To paraphrase Chris Rock: the tiger didn’t go crazy. The tiger went tiger.)
I’m not sure how Madueke’s career turns out. His injury history is reason for pause. He’ll still have some quizzical ideas and inconsistencies that may never iron out. But he’s clearly dynamic and ready on the right, can switch with Saka in interesting ways, and while he has some limitations on the left, he basically can not be stopped from getting to the byline.
When I see him play and hear him speak, I do notice some of that final, absurd level of belief and ambition. And I think he has some of the skills and physical capabilities to back it up. Healthy delusion, you know.
👉 Gyökeres: The Pinnock Test and other details
“There are Field Marshals who would not have shone at the head of a cavalry regiment, and vice versa.” — Clausewitz (43: “THE KNOWLEDGE MUST BE MADE SUITABLE TO THE POSITION”)
The big striker newsletter introduced a silly thing called The Pinnock Test. The claim was not that Ethan Pinnock was a perfect player. The claim was that (a) he was an imposing, smart one, (b) when he plays top teams, he camps in the box with plenty of help, and (c) he is a third-to-fourth choice centre-back for a midtable team. The Premier League has a ridiculous depth of quality in the centre-back position, and a top team has to figure out how to beat such a player on his own terms. In other words…
When Arsenal play a Brentford, they don’t get to stretch (Pinnock) vertically. In fact, the only time Arsenal strikers really get to run into space is against sides like Liverpool — facing the likes of Van Dijk and Konaté. But against most mid-table and lower-half teams, it’s about occupying space on the shoulder of a giant. Generally speaking, that giant is quick, smart, doesn’t make many mistakes, and can win in the air.
Can Kai Havertz beat James Tarkowski to a long diagonal? Yes. How often are we going to see it? Not very. Everton make sure of it.
Here, Nico Jackson shows the reality of being a possession-dominant striker in the Premier League:
An Arsenal striker, then, must present some compelling reason to win in this kind of scenario. That might involve having even freakier tools: jumping higher, being stronger, or just being more intense (Haaland). Or it might mean being quick enough, or so technically sharp, or so clean of a ball-striker, that you can carve out the small gaps and punish them (Alvarez, Dembélé, Jesus, Firmino). Otherwise, you’re likely to get lost in Pinnock’s long pockets.
As it turns out, Arsenal did find a striker who could pass The Pinnock Test. He signed as a midfielder last year.
Merino hung out at the penalty spot, preserved the space ahead of him, and then started his dart (and momentum) right before White was going to contact the ball. He then placed the header in his typically assured way.
The bigger money striker signing, Viktor Gyökeres, hasn’t yet passed the test with the same clarity. I’ve been writing and taking notes on this for a couple of weeks, and the thinkpieces have been flying in since, and it’s probably all a bit overblown. I suppose it’s time for my turn to join the pile. Sorry.
There’s been an understandable debate as to how much is individual performance versus “service.” Arteta himself chimed in.
“It’s a collaboration between the two. He was in a lot of really good positions and the ball didn’t get into the area quick enough, sharp enough or just with the precision that is required for a No.9 to score the goal.”
More than diving into the more obvious things, I wanted to investigate some specific details of his game that might be causing some underperformance, and what can be done about them.
Starting with priors, here’s what I wrote this summer, around six weeks before he signed.
In attack, that extreme level of physical engagement never drops. His most endearing quality, by far, is what happens when he confirms that he has a physical advantage on a defender: he will cash it in, every time, without exception. There’s something deeply likable about how clear that dynamic is: when the matchup is uneven, goals are coming. Many players — like, say, Havertz — are superior overall Premier League players to Gyökeres in my eyes, but would put up lower goal totals in Portugal.
It’s also part of the problem. Until you really watch at length, it’s hard to fathom just how overmatched the lower-half Primera Liga centre-backs are.
I mean.
Where he thrives:
His game thrives in instability: broken sequences, rebounds, errant touches, spilled saves. But also, the channels. It’s hard to overstate just how many of his goals are this: a tireless run over the shoulder, endless long-ball service, and simply outrunning the defender to the ball before blasting it in.
This is used to write him off, but the truth is that Arsenal do struggle against mid-blocks like Villa, and also are weak at scoring from high ball-wins. In a league getting more-end-to-end every year, these opportunities will still present themselves, just not at the levels he’s used to.
Something I’d add there: this season, it’s more difficult to score on press-wins in the Premier League, as more teams are just sending it long, over the press.
Continuing:
Still, Arsenal generally face lower blocks than that. When the block is higher, that is specifically because the team’s CBs are trusted to run and stay with players like Gyökeres. That running rhythm, the service could dry up at Arsenal, and in more crowded, structured games, his tools look blunter. The Pinnock Test.
As such, I think the ceiling might be lower than some hope. He’s not dominant in the air. Of his 39 league goals this year, against those overmatched centre-backs, exactly zero (0) of them were with his head. That’s #bad, and relevant because he’d start in place of Havertz, he won’t start on the wing, and those lineups would generally also be without Merino. In a team that has often relied on set plays and high launches, that kind of loss isn’t small. Gyökeres doesn’t replace that presence.
His ball-striking is impressive. He generates power off both feet, hits hard and early, and brings real danger with any shooting window. But there’s not much disguise. Some shots are too predetermined, and some of his best strikes require an extra setup touch. In the Premier League, that extra beat might close the window and limit his shot volume.
His link-up play is fine but has some rough edges. He can find a teammate, but doesn’t dramatically draw defenders out or shape space for others. He plays the pass in front of him. When the game slows down, he can sometimes feel mechanical: shoved off balance because he didn’t prepare for contact, too rigid, or clunky on the turn. I’d simplify it to say: he has extra-strong shoulders, but a weaker back.
I mentioned a few weeks ago that he has started his tenure at the 50th percentile of these expectations, which were already fairly measured. Since then, we’ve seen the concerns amp up. I’d posit this is because:
People are always dramatic and impatient about new signings, which usually says more about their own expectations than the player himself.
There’s been a trio of games we hoped he could specifically impact: Villa (higher line mid-block, with space to run); Brugge (flat-track bully), and Wolves (flat-track bully).
He hasn’t looked good since his return.
To start, I’m not too concerned about the pure volume of touches or received passes. He should play a different role than Jesus, Havertz, or Merino.
👉 Primary topics
There are two categories where the flags are harder to ignore:
Challenges:Gradient Sports ranks him 49th out of 56 central forwards in challenge rating, which includes aerials, 50-50 duels, tackles, and dribbles faced. Aerial duel win rate isn’t everything, but he’s currently won 17 of 44 of those (38.6%), per fbref/Opta.
(A semi-interesting side note is that some of the other new signings have had low aerial win rates. Eze is 5-for-18 (27.8%), and Mosquera is 7-for-21 (33.3%).)
Shot volume: Gyökeres is averaging 1.89 shots per game. That’s roughly on par with Calafiori, and fewer than midfielders like Enzo, Casemiro, Anton Stach, and Yasin Ayari. He didn’t manage a shot against Man United, Liverpool, or Manchester City. He got two or fewer shots against Leeds, West Ham, Wolves, Palace, and Burnley.
From the eye, there is some truth to the idea that he’s been fairly helpful in pushing some space for a trailer like Eze. I also believe his teammates are gaining comfort in delivering him the ball, as can be expected. It also can’t be denied that he’s overperformed expectations as a presser, and the team certainly hasn’t fallen apart in his presence:
Arsenal with Gyökeres (952 minutes): 20 goals for, 4 goals against (+16), 2.20 points per match.
Arsenal without Gyökeres (488 minutes): 10 goals for, 6 goals against (+4).
But on the shots, goals, and challenges side of things, I see no reason to deny his agency in all of this. He’s 27 and wasn’t meant to be a developmental signing.
What hasn’t been going well? What can change?
👉 Leverage and contact habits
We can start with a trip down memory lane.
Ivan Toney gave our CB pairing a few long days in the air. He straight-up uncle’d Saliba on more than one occasion. It was that kind of clear-cut demolition performance that forces you to change your ways, the football equivalent of waking up with a hangover and saying, “It’s time to get my shit together.” Gabriel and Saliba haven’t looked quite so overmatched since.
The battle was almost always won before the battle. Toney would stagger his steps, situate himself a bit side-on, initiate contact with an arm-bar, and always win the space before trying to win the ball. The Arsenal duo always seemed perfectly unbalanced. He always seemed perfectly in control.
Toney won 12/14 aerial duels on this day.
Another example of how physical battles are won? Look no further than Bukayo Saka, one of the very best balance-and-leverage players in the world.
Against West Ham in 2022, there was a high clearance, and Declan Rice tried to win the ball twice, but Bukayo Saka won the space twice.
You can see the difference in the freeze-frame below. Saka waits to deliver the armbar/shoulder-barge right when Rice’s base is lightest and easiest to unsettle, while Rice simply jumps for the ball.
Real ones remember that this resulted in the go-ahead goal.
I was watching Juventus/Bologna last weekend, and Loïs Openda did something similar. He waited for Torbjørn Heggem to get on his heels, and right when he was least “planted,” he shoulder-barged him out of the way and took off. It led to a free run at the goal and a red card.
We can also remember what Madueke did so well in the opening segment. Side-on. Slappy, slappy.
It’s a little more nuanced (and varied) in the air, but if a player is receiving it to feet, this is typically what you’d expect to see: side-on, arm-bar (to sense the opponent, to gain information, and to create separation), and a striker on their toes.
With Gyökeres, we’ve seen too many situations like this.
I’m not the first to note this, and won’t be the last.
If you pause at the original point of contact, his body is square, he hasn’t initiated contact with his hands (he’s trying to hook-and-hold, and is late doing so), and he’s often back on his heels. The defender has all the leverage in this situation, and Gyökeres can never regain the high ground.
The other thing is that when you’re square, a defender can just kick through your legs to access the ball.
We see it again here: second to contact, not enough hand/shoulder usage (it’s all back), so we can just be held down while the defender jumps.
The Villa defenders were easily dispatching him as he tried to overuse his back, and was often surprised by the moment of impact.
It’s OK to straighten yourself out right before contacting the ball or jumping, but if you line up that way too early, especially without scanning or using your hands, it’s hard to get leverage, and you give a savvy, strong CB too much time to adjust, and a big target to push over.
In more transitional situations, the strength and fundamentals of Premier League defenders make the difference. The following clip may turn into a spill in weaker leagues, but if somebody like Botman gets in a stance like this, there is essentially no moving him from the spot.
Botman won the spot.
One way some players, like Toney, address these situations is with a high, daredevil one-footed leap, while trying to avoid the primary point of contact. It can lead to big falls, though, and requires a Toney-like vertical.
When players like Havertz know they’re going to try and “high-point” the ball, they like jogging to the spot, often from a diagonal run, so that they arrive and jump at the same time, which gives the opponent a moving target to battle.
To the eye, Gyökeres fiercely competed against Newcastle, and had one of his better performances. But even though win rates aren’t always indicative of much, this is not what you’d like to see.
Gyökeres duels v Newcastle: 4/33 (12%)
It’s easy to say that Arsenal should just keep it on the ground more, but if you look at some of the situations above, they’re not all Arsenal-instigated launches: a lot of them come from bouncy situations that can pop up at any time, especially in England, given today’s game models. These kinds of duels and second-ball situations are only gaining prominence in an increasingly direct, long-ball, launchy league.
One team long-balls it, the other has a headed clearance, the other team heads it back, and so on.
For Gyökeres, the result of these situations is that he’s often surprised by the moment of contact and too easily knocked off-balance.
To improve, he can get more side-on, scan more to preserve more space in the drop-zone, and most importantly, use his hands and arms more.
👉 Downstream impact: passing under pressure
This is important to sort out, because we’re talking about more than contesting aerial duels (which may never be a strength), but getting himself set when he receives the ball against monsters. The struggles in this regard have had the highest impact on his passing, which has untapped potential. Case in point: while his duel (“challenge”) stats are low, his pure miscontrols are at 13.5%, which isn’t terribly high for a striker. Haaland, for example, is at 18.7%.
But his passing can be interesting and hasn’t had time to shine. He had 10 assists in his final year in Coventry, and 20 across comps in his two seasons in Lisbon. While the touches should probably stay low, the quality can tick up.
What’s the culprit? Premier League pressure.
I pulled more numbers from Gradient Sports, and his pass completion under pressure sits at 60% currently, which is 26th out of 28 qualifiers (>500 minutes) at CF, ahead of only Strand Larsen and Calvert-Lewin. For reference, Cunha is 83.5%, Woltemade is 75.6%, Ekitike is 71%, and Haaland is 64.7%.
These quick ones are about touch, sure, but mostly just about feeling somewhat uncomfortable in these moments, and not predicting the pressure of opponents or movements of his teammates.
This, again, is the kind of pass where he didn’t feel out the pressure before delivering.
But when there’s not somebody directly on his back, he can do things like this.
His first touch can wobble a bit, but if he has some space, the ball-striking applies to his passes. We remember some legitimately slick shit against Burnley, and not just because of the opponent. It’s all about generating space, time, and balance for himself.
👉 Service, movement, and separation
What about his service?
Trossard’s passing has been one of the shining lights of the season. His passing grade (via Gradient) is the highest of any Arsenal player, and one of the highest in the league. This is the kind of pass that is, in fact, on offer with a little more frequency.
This nice one from Trossard showing Gyökeres looking like a clone of his Lisbon self. I’d temper some expectation of how often this kind of ball is actually on offer, as these are just tough to complete.
…and this, again, is another example of him looking like his Lisbon self. The difference is that he’d get four of these a game and inevitably get a step on the defender.
I do fully believe in these one-touch passes from the wing to the channel. This is something that Trossard can deliver, Eze can deliver, and Saka can deliver. This one goes to Rice, but I think Gyökeres can get out of the middle a little more and have other players (Eze, Saka, Merino, etc) backfill the striker zone.
This is the ticket. I think he can float into the full-back’s blindside and then sprint away, and interesting things can happen. I think this can result in late-arrivals into the Ø-zone by others. Cutbacks, both to Gyök and from Gyök, are the big miss so far.
And it’s something I think can change. He can float left instead of staying so central.
According to Gradient, he’s only successfully received 6 attacking line-breaking passes this year, which is 24th of 28 qualified strikers (with >500 minutes). That’s not all on “service.” From this great Sky piece by Nick Wright:
According to GeniusIQ, Gyokeres has averaged the least space when available to receive passes of any Premier League player this season, at 3.14m, a statistic which reflects his struggle to create separation from his markers through his movement.
When I watch back the footage, I don’t see a lot of runs that are clearly “on” that other players are missing. I see a striker who is staying incredibly central instead of drifting to the half-spaces and making his famous darting runs.
He’s also received it 43 times in dangerous positions, which isn’t too low.
As he gains comfort and regains fitness, he can do those sprinting wide runs with a little more regularity. I’ve likened him to one of those combat robots that take a moment to “spin up,” but are most vulnerable in the first few seconds of a match. Get him running longer distances so he can reach his top speed.
👉 Reacting versus anticipating
Finally, it’s time to discuss the moment that caused the biggest sense of ire from the fanbase. When seeking an out-and-out #9, this is the kind of goal-hunting goal that fans are clamoring for.
This one is hard to mythbust. According to Gradient, Gyökeres is responsible for the most incomplete receptions on crosses due to target error in the league, with 17. In so many words, it’s hard to cleanly blame “service” when you have Bukayo Saka (or Eze, or Ødegaard, or this new Trossard, or Zubimendi) playing with you.
So much of being a striker is snapping alive in the moment. You want to preserve space in front of you as best as you can (once you’re at the goal, there’s not much you can do), but I tried to pinpoint the moment when Gyökeres turned from jog to outright sprint. The ball was roughly ten yards away from Saka.
Now, look at the Madueke-headed goal from earlier. He snapped alive before the ball was struck.
You can see Merino doing the same thing for the goal against Brentford.
The master of this is obviously Erling Haaland.
(It’s funny, after that Gyökeres miss, I immediately went back and pulled a Haaland goal I’ve referenced before, and Bastian had the exact same impulse. It’s such a violent example of the ideal here.)
To start, a cutback is pretty predictable and can be easy to anticipate, especially if KDB is on the underlap. Here is Haaland preserving space for himself in the front:
But the second that ball is played in, Haaland smells blood and sprints with a ferocity few can match. KDB hasn’t even touched the ball yet:
We can’t expect Gyökeres to be Haaland. But on too many occasions, he has been reacting instead of anticipating. This should improve with more familiarity with his teammates. The question is: how much?
👉 What’s next for Gyökeres?
The Pinnock Test still looms over everything.
Aerials will increasingly be part of Premier League football in the short-term, but Arsenal probably need to be smarter about how often they invite those battles. Launching it to him by default doesn’t play to his strengths, and right now it exposes some of his weaker habits. His gathers can improve, because there is real pressure to do so: necessity breeds invention and all that.
Moving forward, he needs to show he can make a clearer difference against two types of opponents: good mid-blocks (where the runs have to be showier and invite more passes) and overmatched sides (where he has to dominate in a way that justifies the profile). If he can’t tilt those games, starts will be hard to come by as Jesus and Havertz come back and return to form.
Some of this is improvable, and we are so early into the tenure. As I keep saying, associations naturally build up over time. Some focus areas:
A different shape of engagement: Side-on, earlier contact, aggressive hand usage. His scanning and hands aren’t setting him up well, and that’s clearly bleeding into his passing under pressure.
Earlier sprint triggers: Given that he doesn’t change direction as quickly as most Premier League centre-backs, I’d like the box reads to be simpler: fewer hesitations or attempted double-moves, just pick the space and moment, trust it, and sprint violently, over and over again.
Lean into the half-spaces and run: Fewer static central battles, more blindside channel work. Keep him whirring.
All of this should lead to more shots, more runs, and more comfortable passes. One idea would be to send Merino up as a target man and have Gyökeres run off him.
He’s a stubborn motherfucker, an oddly single-minded machine who is capable of pushing through the claims of doubters. One way to look at his career is that he outworked Brighton’s famously good scouting apparatus, and doubting him has gone wrong before. The welcome news is that his pressing effort and detail will help him get late-game minutes in any case, so he has a path. There’s some statistical evidence that he may have added pace in Lisbon, and while he currently looks a half-step slower than he did there, that gap may close as the season goes on. And when his goals come, they do, fucking, feel different: violent and satisfying. Two or three could change the temperature fast. Why don’t we begin against Everton?
Still, the doubts are real, and my analyst brain still remains unconvinced he can lock down the starting #9 role at Arsenal, against the defenders and play-styles Arsenal face most often. The fan in me can back him along the way.
👉 Seeking total footballers
Nobody has been in the crucible quite like Piero Hincapié. He debuted for Arsenal in the Champions League at left-back, and that seemingly was one of the primary motivations for signing him. He was, stop me if you’ve heard this before, injured shortly after. Then Gabriel went down, Saliba went down, Mosquera went down, and now White has gone down.
This Sky piece covers how we have the most injuries in the league since last season.
For Hincapié’s sake, his re-entry has been a true trial-by-fire.
Here he is as an LCB with Saliba.
Then, in a pairing with Mosquera.
Next, with Timber.
Then Timber again.
He even had a showing alongside …. Christian Nørgaard?
And finally, he was to start at LB with Saliba and Timber as the CB pairing. This concept was short-lived as White got hurt and Hincapie had to transfer back to LCB.
While White should have rested for other reasons, I will say this: this backline setup looked awfully interesting as a block-killer on paper. The idea is that ball-players were everywhere, and you can send really aggressive overloads to either side, with Saliba essentially serving as a back-one, sweeping up by himself. Sadly, we didn’t get to see how it would play out, but the concept can still be executed with a backline of Hincapié (LB), Calafiori (LCB), Saliba (RCB), and Timber (RB).
For Hincapié, some of his work has looked harried-then-uneventful. The exception was Villa, where he largely played assuredly in a tough one, but his partnership with Timber was fully put to the test, wavering at moments.
I’ve said before that I’d be wary of any scouting profile on a centre-back that doesn’t begin with a long overview of the partnership they play in. So much of defending is done in tandem, covering and being covered, and it’s almost impossible to understand that without knowing who they defend with.
I recently shared a one-pager scouting report of Hincapié to buttress the longer version.
The key portion of all that is the complementary profiles, written before he debuted. It helps explain how Timber is a superior CB to Nørgaard, but Nørgaard (a more predictable, less aggressive, less roamy player at CB) may be a better partner for Hincapié.
I like defenders who have experience shoveling shit. I’m partial to those who have been in bottom-half Championship teams, for example, because that means they’re facing a lot of physicality and they’re getting a lot of opportunities to duel. Hincapié has unexpectedly faced that kind of chopping-and-changing and firefighting obstacle at one of the biggest clubs in the world.
For all the mess, I’ve actually found myself feeling better about his prospects, for much the same reason I feel measured about Gyökeres: Hincapié is simply beating people to the spot.
But I’m not here to talk about Hincapié. I’d rather talk about the wider impacts of modern defending, and the butterfly effect of losing our CBs.
👉 Man-marking and the problem of resets
I love Marcelo Bielsa. His interviews with Leeds, especially in that Championship year, were appointment viewing for me.
“Man-to-man marking is not a system I enjoy,” he admitted. “It requires pursuing an opponent that needs to be neutralised. This has a flaw in the sense that one player moves away from his position in order to hunt down their opposite man.”
His frustration comes from the resets.
“When the ball is regained, the team is set up in a defensive formation. Possession is then harder to manage as on the turnover, your players are breaking from a place of having been man-to-man marking. It’s harder to launch out into attacks from whatever formation that is formed as a result of chasing down opponents.
He expands:
“But clearly, pressurizing opponents and accelerating the recuperation of the ball is very important and we base our game on our opponents not being able to find players in space.
“Whether it is a man-to-man system or zonal marking, they are just different ways of trying to achieve the same thing. With zonal marking, passing on players always leaves scope for opponents to find space to determine games so there’s always the danger that the press breaks down.
“For me, the advantages of applying pressure sometimes justify the defensive resources that goes into man-to-man marking. But I always dream of achieving a system where pressure can still be maintained with every player in the right place to nullify the rival, without having to match our key players up.
“The man-to-man system is perhaps a shortcoming of my own teams,” Bielsa considered with a smile. “It’s something I’ve not been able to find the perfect solution to across 30 years as a manager so I doubt I’ll be able to resolve it now!”
It’s no surprise that Ben White developed as he did under Bielsa.
The Bayern match was one of the most extreme man-to-man matches imaginable. As one example, here’s Merino dragging a CB (Tah) into build-up, while Saliba is in the midfield pivot, and Rice is at RCB.
Defensively, Arsenal would occasionally vacillate between keeping a +1 on the backline and having Saliba track Kane everywhere. Here, you can see how dead-simple man-marking can look. Everybody… mark your man.
This was turned up in the second half, with Saliba again following Kane everywhere.
“I call them total players. A total team has to have total players. You have to dominate absolutely every aspect of the game.”
When one asks for the requirements of an aggressive press, especially one that leans man-to-man, the conversation usually turns to the physical: how intense you run, how fast you run, how far you run. But there are other requirements. Because possession changes can occur at any time, you need players who are comfortable all over the pitch. If Saliba wins the ball in one of the scenarios above, he is expected to act like a #10 or a striker, or the advantage wanes. The other requirement is ample communication and comfort across the pitch, which can be tough with so many new entrants.
In the 69th (nice) minute against Bayern, Merino (the striker) dropped down to form a cocoon around Madueke as he fought for an aerial duel. Eze came over to support the efforts.
The ball bounced back to Bayern, and they reset. This is an example of why resetting isn’t always a conservative action: it forces your opponent to splay out in their new positions, without the opportunity to switch. In this case, Eze has to go to the left side of the front two, pressing as the striker.
With the ball played out wide, four Arsenal people anticipate the line-breaker: Eze, Martinelli, Rice, and … Arteta himself, pointing at the bottom of the screen. Even though Eze is a “right-10” here, his comfort on the left is now being tested.
Because Eze pressed well in this different position, Rice could jump into the pocket, and within seconds, the goal was earned.
👉 New players, new zones, and hesitant jumps
That’s an example of it working. Against Chelsea, we fielded a new CB duo, and we generally wanted them to be as supported as possible. Rice had the nearly impossible duty of tracking both James and Caicedo at the same time.
The Chelsea build-up was intent on having Gusto trail Martinelli. Once Martinelli jumped, that meant Gusto was free in the blindspot, and things could easily progress from there. In this case, Hincapié was supposed to support the Martinelli jump, but was late in doing so.
As he feels out the situation, Hincapié is late in closing down. Rice moves over to close down the space, and Eze should track Caicedo, but is similarly late in seeing that.
The result is that they can play through. Gusto can pass before Hincapié closes down, Caicedo can pass before Eze fully closes down, and then Zubimendi has to step up from the backline and foul James as he gets through. The early yellow card changed the feel of the game and was mostly the product of new-player jumps that were simply a half-second late.
We could see the demands of the modern player as the game wore on. In this one, Eze (who was again playing #10 on the right), went to track a contested ball, and wound up on the left side.
The byproduct of this is that his position, the Ødegaard role, was left open, which means another player was responsible for rotating out and filling it.
Instead, Martinelli continues to press as an LW, and Merino splits the difference. Eze is pointing out that those two should be filling the role he vacated, and pressing in a front-two, with Eze sliding into the LW pressing spot.
These build-up resets, again, are not inherently conservative: they test the opponent’s ability to regroup. In this case, the third man is missing, and both Merino and Rice have dual responsibilities, creating an easy 4v2 in the middle of the park.
It’s all easily played through. Rice is frustrated.
Maybe the cleanest example is this. Martinelli points out that Gusto is floating in the blind side, and Hincapié’s job is to mark that.
As Hincapié jumps, he can’t run full-tilt, as Gabriel would. He has to check to make sure that Mosquera (and others) are covering the back-line.
So much of that comes down to comfort, communication, and experience playing together. Ultimately, you want to create a press that is so sure of its corresponding jumps that no player ever has to look over their shoulder to make sure they’re covered.
The other thing: this puts pressure on players to be comfortable all over the pitch. If you’re man-marking in a strange area, you are expected to be able to attack and pick out teammates from there, and know how they like to receive a ball. That can be daunting for a new signing.
In the last couple of weeks, we haven’t been there.
👉 Open in the middle
There were defensive wobbles in the Villa game, too. Emery pulled some tricky moves to test the freshness of the Arsenal midfield, and it generally paid dividends. Here, you can see Villa emptying out that left side to try to overload and confuse the Arsenal middle.
As every player performs their jumps, Kamara remains on the blindside. This exploits some of Merino’s shortcomings: you can bet on him to move and throw in a leg, which can create space in other areas.
They easily play through. They had central access all day, which feels odd against this Arsenal side.
👉 Wolves: weird passivity and decision fatigue
These seemingly new issues popped up again late against Wolves. Per Opta:
They recorded fewer pressures (261) than in any other Premier League game this season, and a lower proportion of their opponents’ touches were made while under pressure (60.5%) than in any of their other games. Those stats suggest a side struggling with the demands of their schedule.
“But then we had a period of three minutes in deep – so passive, really poor defensive habits, not acceptable for our level, because we hadn’t conceded a single shot until that point. The first time they do it, they score a goal. And that’s the Premier League.”
“We need to be very, very much aware of that, and improve that because, at the end, you rely on an individual action, a very chaotic action to score the goal and win the game. The margins should have been bigger.”
Here’s what it looked like. In this situation, Rice wanted the outside players (Saka and Timber) to push up. Jesus and Ødegaard stayed put as well, either conserving their legs or trying to keep things compact. The result was a semi-stretched mid-block at odds with itself.
From there, the front-two were manipulated just like Villa, and a couple of chances came flowing through the Arsenal block.
In this regroup, you can see just how passive all of the engagement is. Honestly, just strange.
As much as I’d like to say it was one of the newer or younger players, in truth, the careless giveaways that triggered this pressure were from Jesus, Trossard, Ødegaard, and Merino. They were also some of the most passive pressers. Even after the concession, Rice uncharacteristically lost the ball deep.
The team looked physically and mentally wiped. Some good decision-makers were making weird decisions. I wound up going back to my thing about how this system, one where everybody shoulders maximum responsibility for everything, may induce decision fatigue.
“The more choices you have to make, the more it can wear on your brain, and it may cause your brain to look for short cuts,” said Dr. Lisa MacLean. “There are four main symptoms: procrastination, impulsivity, avoidance and indecision.”
[…]
“If your brain is worn down, it may cause you to become more reckless with your decision making or not think things through,” she added. It can also “cause you to simply do nothing, which can cause even more problems.”
👉 William Saliba is air
Saliba was back against Wolves, but the impact of his absence in many of the above clips can’t be overstated. The average Premier League game with Saliba results in 2.30 goals for and 0.50 goals against.
He helps you go man-to-man all over the pitch as needed. He can be the calm, sweeping “final boss” archetype while the other CB goes around and courts trouble. But perhaps most importantly, he is a deep controller, who averages more touches per 90 than any player in the Premier League, allowing everybody else to push up higher.
Saliba
Mosquera has mostly been excellent, outperforming his fee several times over. He’s offered several moments like this, in which his body angles open up the pitch.
But, in a hallmark for young players, he can over-rely on patterns instead of seeing the whole picture. A little while later, he went for the same pass, even though it wasn’t on.
Saliba makes everything look so effortless that appreciating him can feel like appreciating fresh air. But there has to be something to offset his absence. You can’t just pray it away.
Enter Martin Ødegaard, who spent a few games dropping into the zones that Saliba often shepherds.
Against Brugge, that led to early passes like this.
Ødegaard didn’t look his best as a sub in the second half of Wolves, but in the three games prior, he offered a lot of solutions.
When looking at the direction of attacks, these three starts resulted in a central bias, a right-sided bias, and a balanced attack. This can leave you with the impression that Arsenal lean right not because of Ødegaard’s touchiness (he can lead the team in passes out to the LW, for example), but for a simpler reason: Bukayo Saka is really fucking good.
In more advanced areas, we’ve seen this…
…and this.
…and this, from deep.
Against Brugge, this freed up Zubimendi to play an all-action hybrid role, in which he leaned left and created six chances in all.
Zubimendi: Club Brugge
With Saliba back and Zubimendi/Rice playing, Ødegaard can drop opportunistically, instead of out of necessity. Rice and Zubimendi, as a lower base double-pivot is the right call in most games. Eze can certainly rotate in and play a lot. The advantage of a Rice/Zubimendi/Ødegaard midfield is that they can sense danger and pop in everywhere, low and high, and can swirl and rotate and push at will. The #10 can and should stay high in many of these games, but at its best, they can offer a more physical version of what PSG’s world-beating midfield did last year.
🔥 Final thoughts
Here’s one quote:
“Thus our vanity, our self-love, furthers the worship of the genius, for it does not hurt only if we think of it as very remote from ourselves, as a miracle … To call someone “divine” means “Here we do not have to compete.” Furthermore, everything that is complete and perfect is admired; everything evolving is underestimated.” ― Friedrich Nietzsche
Here’s another:
“Ending your little football newsletter with a Nietzsche quote is awfully pretentious, but that’s never stopped you before.” — The Voice in My Head
We’re all prisoners to the most recent performance. I’m no different; it’s fine and normal. The schedule isn’t going to let up from here.
For all those complications of this period, nothing has given me more straightforward joy than the return of Gabriel Jesus to the pitch. He’s one of the best connectors around. I hope you take time to read his letter in the Players’ Tribune.
I feel that I have unfinished business at Arsenal. I don’t want to leave. When I came here to join Mikel, my purpose was not only to score goals. My purpose was to win titles. When I came to the Premier League, I think most people’s reaction was, “Oh? Who is this kid?” They looked at me as a pure goalscorer. But that’s not how I see myself. My strongest trait is that I will do whatever it takes to help the team win titles.
The other simple joy is that Bukayo Saka is one of the best players in the world.
If Arsenal are to thrive in this next stretch, it will be about fitness and availability, and it will hopefully show in big moments. But the real building blocks are the smaller moments of connection between players: the angles, the pass deliveries, the subtle timing of jumps. If those new connections start to feel less new, the big moments will naturally follow.
Thank you for reading. ❤️
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Amazing as always! I’ve learned so much from reading these.
Do you think Victor can be coached into using his arms better or staying side-on when contesting duels? Is it something you can learn or is it one of those things where you have it or you don’t? Do you think he’s a “coachable” guy?
You mentioned that the system we play induces decision fatigue… do you think our system is more “complicated” than say, City’s or Liverpool’s or Chelsea’s? (I can understand that some games can be more complex than others)
Lastly, you’re such an exceptional writer. I’m not, so it’s hard for me to put it into words, but every single one of your articles I’ve read has been great. You’re wicked smart and so well-read and so knowledgeable about so many topics. Bit of a weird question but… who the hell are you?! Your bio doesn’t give much away, but I’m so curious about you. Like, what’s your background? Where are you from? How’d you get into all this? No need to answer of course, but I’m sure I’m not the only one wondering!
There’s only one Billy Carpenter! Thanks as always, wishing you and your loved ones all the best. Happy holidays! ♥️
Another banger Billy! I've only been playing pickup football for a year and only once a week, but I am really appreciating the connections you're able to make between Big Picture tactics and individual COACHABLE actions. Your points on things like body position, how to initiate contact, when to jump, etc. really get me thinking about my own practiced decisions and how I could better learn and train by watching what others do. Really makes me wonder what you'd be like as a coach...
Amazing as always! I’ve learned so much from reading these.
Do you think Victor can be coached into using his arms better or staying side-on when contesting duels? Is it something you can learn or is it one of those things where you have it or you don’t? Do you think he’s a “coachable” guy?
You mentioned that the system we play induces decision fatigue… do you think our system is more “complicated” than say, City’s or Liverpool’s or Chelsea’s? (I can understand that some games can be more complex than others)
Lastly, you’re such an exceptional writer. I’m not, so it’s hard for me to put it into words, but every single one of your articles I’ve read has been great. You’re wicked smart and so well-read and so knowledgeable about so many topics. Bit of a weird question but… who the hell are you?! Your bio doesn’t give much away, but I’m so curious about you. Like, what’s your background? Where are you from? How’d you get into all this? No need to answer of course, but I’m sure I’m not the only one wondering!
There’s only one Billy Carpenter! Thanks as always, wishing you and your loved ones all the best. Happy holidays! ♥️
Another banger Billy! I've only been playing pickup football for a year and only once a week, but I am really appreciating the connections you're able to make between Big Picture tactics and individual COACHABLE actions. Your points on things like body position, how to initiate contact, when to jump, etc. really get me thinking about my own practiced decisions and how I could better learn and train by watching what others do. Really makes me wonder what you'd be like as a coach...