Here’s a 2,800 word scouting report on the potential of Danilo
Looking into the playing style, positioning, passing, dribbling, defending, aggression, work-rate, and form of the Palmeiras midfielder who may join Arsenal in January
In the waning days of the summer transfer window, conjecture swirled about the possibility of Danilo from Palmeiras moving to Arsenal. It made sense on the surface: he is cool, young, dynamic, plays in arguably the team’s biggest position of need, and even got a brief call-up to Brazil’s national team.
A move never materialized, and in the months since, Fabrizio Romano has reported that a deal was never ultimately close, as Arsenal was put off by the €35m ask, and Palmeiras was not motivated to sell at the time. After all, they were in the throes of competing for a league title. Danilo was a key part of that run, and their finances didn’t seem to necessitate a move.
That didn’t stop me from writing a “brief brief” on Danilo back then, which was put together after watching him play in the Club World Cup and a few other games. I assured myself (and those reading) that this exercise was probably a waste of time, as anything related to transfer speculation is usually proven to be.
As signs continue to point to the possibility of Danilo joining the team in January — most recently in an ESPN report that Arsenal may face competition in the form of Ajax and Monaco—I also realized last week that I have access to game tape of every Brasileirão game this year. You mean, another chance to stay up late and nerd out on things I have no impact over? Game on.
What follows is a more fulsome report based on more fulsome information: the Club World Cup against Chelsea, as well as games throughout the campaign against Corinthians, Internacional, Coritiba, Juventude, and the second leg of the Paulistão final against São Paulo. I’m still no expert on the Brazilian pyramid—I’m no expert on much, really—so please fill in the blanks which are undoubtedly present.
Another way of saying this: while you clowns have been watching the “World Cup,” I’ve been watching recordings of Brasileirão games from April, like an adult.
Let’s get into it.
I thought I’d try out a different format than a typical scouting report this time. Let’s see how it works in the form of a Frequently Asked Questions.
🍖 What’s the TL;DR on Danilo?
Danilo is a direct, aggressive, talented 21-year-old defensive midfielder who has shined as a locked-in starter for a title-winning side. He’s athletic, has a high work-rate, and displays a wide array of passing capabilities. He has logged over 10,000 minutes of senior club experience already, and has a mature understanding of positioning for his age. That said, he’s still young, can be overeager when dribbling and challenging, leading to clumsiness, and has never been a truly dominant hub of possession, notching ~20 fewer passes per match than what he may be expected to do at Arsenal. Overall, he has a high ceiling and seems to fit the profile that Arsenal is targeting of late.
🤔 How might the Palmeiras playing style prepare him for life at Arsenal?
Palmeiras sets up in a base 4–2–3–1. Here’s an example of their shape, next to Danilo’s heatmap for league games in 2022:
Coached by the brilliant Abel Ferreira (not to be confused with Abel Ferrara, director of King of New York, a BBQ-endorsed film 🙌), the team plays attractive, well-drilled football, which has stepped up in intensity from last year while maintaining a lot of its defensive solidity.
Here’s a quick look at how their 2022 campaign compares to Arsenal’s current charge, in terms of play style:
The teams possess many similarities, with Palmeiras not committing players forward quite as aggressively: their line and tempo is a little lower, the pressure isn’t quite as high, and they possess the ball a little less. Ultimately, the teams are schematic cousins.
Palmeiras nominally forms a double-pivot, with Danilo working in tandem with batterymate Zé Rafael. It can take different forms, and is pretty flexible and “all-of-the-above” in build-up, often moving up the right, with various players dropping deep to help things along. His pitch location is surrounded by stable talent: Rocha up the right, Gómez behind, and Scarpa as a top playmaking CAM ahead (who is leaving for Nottingham Forest in January).
In almost every case, though, Danilo is the deepest midfielder, and his positional responsibilities are often indistinguishable from those of a typical single pivot in a 4–3–3. Here’s an example of the team building up against Internacional, with Zé Rafael fully out of the picture upfield:
From there, he still has the engine to get upfield in settled possession, but can place himself a little further from the net than Partey might.
The team used these tactics to dominate the league, win their 24th Campeonato Paulista, notch the Recopa Sudamericana, and finish as runners-up in the Club World Cup.
To give you a sense of his senior-level experience: while Palmeiras lost in the semi-finals in this year’s edition of the Copa Libertadores—the highest competition across club football in South America—Danilo had already started and won that prize twice. He’s got quite the trophy case for a 21-year-old. Something, something, Tottenham.
In all, Danilo played in 57 games across competitions for Palmeiras in 2022, starting in 55 of them. He’s been resting since his season wrapped up on the 13th of November.
🤔 How does he compare to Partey?
Interesting question, self. I’m glad you asked.
I pulled league data from the entire Palmeiras league campaign of 2022, and the season-to-date for Arsenal. Big caveats apply, and here are three: these are not league-adjusted, and the Brasileirão falls around eighth in world rankings, similar to Portugal; Partey’s team has the ball a lot more; Danilo is 21, Partey is 29.
As you’ll see above, there are some real similarities in their respective games, with Danilo being a shade lower across most categories. The biggest gap is in volume: Partey receives and passes the ball at much higher rates. Looking at the tape, acquiring this volume feels like more about systems than effort: there isn’t much cause for alarm in terms of Danilo’s off-ball work rate. In fact, that’s one of his strengths.
But can he stand up to the pressure of securely delivering the ball 15–20 more times per game in the Premier League? You can’t always assume that efficiency will stay the same with an increase in volume. We’ll see. Maybe.
🤔 What’s he like in attack?
1. Passing
Danilo has a wide array of passes at his disposal, and had adjusted well to a slightly more advanced role this year. This comes through in some of his passing dials and percentiles below:
Source: Wyscout
As you’ll see, he’s very secure when passing to his most likely targets: short balls to the RCB and the right-back, which is where much of their possession flows. He’s comfortable doing so under pressure, and doesn’t lose the ball an inordinate amount. He’s also great at delivering up to the right-wing. From his own half, he can be ambitious at looping change-of-play balls to the LW, with (understandably) less accuracy.
May I interest you in a fairly sicko long-ball in the game against Chelsea?
Immediately after a ball recovery (you can see the ref calling advantage), Danilo spots Dudu at the edge of the defensive line…
…and delivers it directly in his breadbasket in the penalty box. The timing was perfect and this was onside.
When pulling StatsBomb data for reference, which differs slightly from the above from Wyscout and may be marginally more accurate, he and Partey have similar short-passing efficiency (89% to 90%) and medium-passing efficiency (88.2% to 89.8%); the only real deviance in accuracy is on the long-balls (64.4% to 69.4%). My guess as to the “why” would be that Partey hits those immediate, grounded line-breaking passes up to forwards at a higher frequency, while Danilo picks it up off the ground a bit more.
Which brings up another way he differs from Partey: he’s left-footed. He’s not ambipedal like Tomi, but not totally foot-dominant either, and comfortable enough with his right. Presumably this might make some of the looping balls up the right wing more difficult to deliver, but I haven’t seen much evidence of that in the games I’ve watched.
2. Dribbling
This is where he has the widest range of outcomes. High peak, low valley type stuff.
In terms of taking on a player in open space, he can still carry some of the hallmarks of someone who got used to beating players with pure athleticism, and is still adjusting to facing players on his level (or near it). Here’s one example.
In the opening moments against Coritiba, Danilo is carrying the ball up the pitch in space, and is looking forward to attacking mismatches against a team they’ll eventually cover off 4–0…
…but instead of taking the passes available to him, he tries a little highlight reel juke, but Bruno Gomes just stands his ground and easily picks his pocket, kicking off an attack the other way.
But there can be reasons for this confidence. When he’s not taking on a disciplined stationary player, and instead in a tight-space situation where he has to lean on his strength and body control, he really shines.
Late in a São Paulo matchup, he picks up a loose ball in traffic and is immediately sandwiched by two players, who are leaning on him…
…but he leans back at them, and gets away, carrying the ball all the way to the edge of the attacking third, while attracting an overload, before delivering it into space for a cutting runner from behind.
It could go either way here.
3. Set pieces
In league, one out of every three Palmeiras goals were on set pieces: 22 in all. Danilo actively contributes to this total and is extremely scrappy in the box, leaning and pulling and often finding his way towards headers or, more likely, second balls. Many of his career goals have been scored this way.
4. Shooting
He shoots a fair amount, racking up the 16th most shots among midfielders in the league, while being compared to players in more advanced positions. Most of them are of the Partey variety: long, hopeful missiles. Sadly, he hasn’t netted one yet, and his career goals have come on closer chances. Here’s a shot chart:
The one exception was late in the Recopa Sudamericana, when legs were tired and Palmeiras recovered the ball on a high press. Danilo still had his full engine and went sprinting into the box from midfield…
…and one-touch passed it into the corner of the net for the goal to end it.
🤔 What’s he like defensively?
Danilo is a lot of fun to watch defensively. He’s imposing, decisive, feisty, and direct. If you’re in his area, and have the ball, he’s coming right at you, and he’s generally doing so in a pretty controlled way.
These numbers show up in his recovery stats, including 4.44 counterpressing recoveries per 90, and 1.33 recoveries in the final third:
Many of these turn into dangerous opportunities, with 48 recoveries happening in the famed “Zone 14” (which is central area outside the box, the control of which can dictate the game), and 20 of those recoveries turning into shots.
This showed up late in a well-fought Club World Cup against a first-team Chelsea side, where Danilo was squared up against Kanté a good amount. While everybody’s legs are wavering, Danilo puts in a hard challenge on Kanté and leaves him on the ground…
…and he dribbled up to the halfline and fired in a throughball.
Chelsea ultimately won the game on a late handball on a corner, but Palmeiras apprised themselves well — and Danilo was awarded the Bronze Ball, which went to the third-best player in the tournament.
One knock: outside of corners, he struggles a bit aerially, winning 38.3% of those duels.
🤬 Is his aggression a problem?
The overall stats don’t look concerning, but there’s a big but. Across his 57 games in 2022, he wound up with 1.36 fouls per 90, 7 total yellows … and 2 reds in the span of about a month. We’ll get to that last bit in a second.
If you’re looking for an apples-to-apples comparison, his foul rate isn’t even in the top 20 of players under 21 in his league, which is physical and fouly—there are dozens of players committing 2 or 3 a game. If you’re looking for apples-to-oranges, his foul rate is less than, say, Martinelli this year.
But that doesn’t tell the whole story. The reds, the first in his career, were both pretty bad, and they were during a mid-season drop in form that risked painting a familiar picture to those reading this. A Palmeiras friend said the following:
“There was a lot of talk about how he going to the national team had messed with his emotional side a bit. I tend to agree with this. In the Libertadores match in particular, Tite, the Brazilian national coach, was in the stadium, and I can’t help but to think that made Danilo try too hard.”
This friend also noted that he’s not a violent player, and I’d agree from what I’ve seen. Both of his fouls weren’t the result of losing his temper, but of being too eager to prove himself in a particular moment, and that sense of urgency showing itself in clumsy ways. His concern immediately turned to the players both times.
After his red against Santos, he got one yellow in the next 10 matches.
🤔 I heard he’s struggled this year. How has his form been?
It’s a long, grueling season and I wasn’t able to watch every game. That said, my impression is that it could be split into thirds: in the first third, he looked better than ever, marrying all his athleticism and talents with a sense of maturity and control. The slight updates to the system suited him well. The second third of the season coincided with his call-up to a Brazilian squad. My sense was not that he looked tired but that he looked overeager and a little sloppy. While he unable to impose himself on the game, he wasn’t disastrous, apart from the reds. The final third of the season was a return to form. He had some great performances down the stretch.
👈 🎱 Could he play at the left 8?
He could, and his motor and athleticism seem to portend some natural box-to-box proclivities. He often fulfills some of those responsibilities already, and there are some hints of a Conor Gallagher-esque maniac in there. But he’s not always a precise technician or box dribbler, and thrives on some destroyer instincts, benefiting from the chaos he creates in similar ways to Partey. To park him into the left half-space may play to his footedness, but not necessarily to all his unique strengths.
🤔 What kind of adjustment period should be expected?
For simplicity’s sake, let’s use recent signings as a guide and imply that there are three tiers in terms of game-readiness: (1) Jesus/Zinchenko, (2) Vieira, and (3) Marquinhos.
I’d peg Danilo in the Vieira tier, if not slightly more advanced: he’s played serious minutes, for years now, as a pivotal player, in a high-stress environment, in a role pretty similar to the one he’d be asked to play at Arsenal, and can likely meet the physical demands of the league. But like with Vieira, it’s likely to get a little messy at times, and will require patience to work itself out, and the work ethic is there to do so. It's a harder job, however.
In terms of a combination of tactical fit, high-trajectory, youth, game-readiness, and value, Danilo is as strong of a wager as any, but a wager nonetheless.
🐻 What’s the bear case for Danilo?
Here’s the downer scenario: he comes into the lineup and runs into defenders, losing the ball too much, or runs into attackers, and steps on too many legs. His percentiles don't necessarily pop off the page when compared to other Série A players currently, and we learn why. His passing qualities aren’t able to shine under Premier League pressure, and he’s not able to shoulder the burden of being a hub for so much progression. He becomes hard to trust in important moments.
📈 What’s the bull case for Danilo?
He’s brimming with star qualities. He’s fun, high-energy, athletic, works really hard, and looks to be a strong teammate. He can immediately slide in as a capable energy guy off the bench, and if he were to fill in alongside the starting lineup, he can do what Vieira did against Brentford. From there, his confidence grows, and he combines some of the destroyer challenging qualities of the top 6’s with an athleticism not often seen in that position. He becomes a "1 of 1" option at the 6.
🔥 Final thoughts
I think I prefaced this by saying this was ultimately a chance to waste time on something I had no control over. That remains the case. Thankfully for the club and us, it’s Edu, Arteta and Co. making that decision.
As with the possibility of a Mudryk signing, if Danilo passes muster with them, that’s been a worthwhile endorsement of late. And like Mudryk, Danilo is exciting and fun and cool, and has a chance, however slim, of being a true superstar. When such players progress the long-term vision, and have the opportunity to readily impact the short-term vision as well, it's never a bad idea to add them to the squad.
Thus concludes this edition of Edu’s BBQ.
One love.
And happy grilling everybody.
🔥
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(I want to thank Palmeiras fan u/SofNascimento for help pointing me in the right directions here.)
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