How does Jorginho fare in D.U.E.L.S.?
A brief look at the potential impact of Arsenal's newest signing
Last week, we introduced D.U.E.L.S., which stood for Depth Upgrades for the Elusive Lone Six, because I’m a word genius. It was a meaningless new stat to help us sift through defensive midfield targets and find the best fits for Arsenal.
We went through about 80 targets worldwide, so naturally, Arsenal prayerfully swung-and-missed at a few guys in the top 5 of the list (Caicedo, Zubimendi, and possibly Camavinga-on-loan, depending on who you believe) and went with a polarizing 31-year-old dude who wasn’t part of the evaluation set. I told you it was going to be a waste of time.
Here were the scenarios we laid out that Arsenal may have pursued:
High preference, low likelihood: Find the perfect, high-level, long-term fit for the team (Rice, Enzo, Caicedo etc) at a cost you can live with — now
High preference, mid likelihood: Find a long-term Elneny upgrade with trajectory
Mid preference, mid likelihood: Find a savvy short-term solution via loan or expiring
Low preference, mid likelihood: Roll with current situation and 🤞
From my perspective, it looks like they pursued scenario #1 as hard as they could, skipped over #2 (fuck off, Sangaré!), and went right to #3.
Jorginho can be classified as a short-term solution, but can he be classified as a “savvy” one?
Let’s investigate.
How does Jorginho fare in D.U.E.L.S.?
Here goes:
As an overall permanent signing — including underlying defensive midfield analytics, creativity, technicality, league-adjusted game scores, age, readiness/trajectory, and value — Jorginho ranks #24 in D.U.E.L.S.
He’s in a tier with the likes of Alan Varela (better age/value but not better PL-projected production), Koopmeiners (excellent player and profile, but imperfect DM fit, plus a league switch), and Edson Álvarez (better on age, worse on creativity).
He’s behind the entire top tier, as well as the likes of Onana, Thuram, and Tielemans (who are judged to be a better long-term values).
He scores well on underlying passing metrics, and is 9th for underlying base metrics as a DM, and 6th for some of the underlying creativity/technicality stats that align with a Rodri-type, while racking up plenty of defensive activity.
He still gets dinged for age and aerial duels, and is 22nd percentile at getting dribbled past (but with a lot of challenges and tackles).
He also admittedly gets knocked by me for more qualitative factors like trajectory — I'm particularly feeling not-great about the Xhaka/Jorginho pairing. He did well on “readiness,” however.
A reminder that age and value were less weighted than usual because there was less target clarity before a title run.
If we adjust things based on a shorter-term move, things change:
Removing age: When I remove the age modifier from the calculation, Jorginho jumps up to #13: behind Rice, Enzo, Zubimendi, Sangaré, Neves, Camavinga, Caicedo, Luís, Locatelli, SMS (who I’ve since added), Locatelli, and Koné.
Immediate impact: Next, I tried to update the calculation to be more about impact for the title run. Removing the age modifier, and adding the real cost (£10m plus £2m), and dimming some of the longer-term qualitative factors, he jumps up to #4. Really, he is solidly in a tier of players after Rice with Enzo, Caicedo, Neves, and Camavinga (and SMS, who I added later).
What do we make of all this?
As with anything, our appraisal of this move is informed by our expectations. Jorginho himself has always been a player who has provoked #takes, and I was among those disappointed that the Caicedo negotiations were revealed to not really be negotiations at all.
Last night, I wrote out some thoughts, but ultimately shelved them because of how quickly a post would be outdated as soon as I went to sleep. But here are the unposted ramblings from last night’s Evernote after the Jorginho news surfaced:
He wouldn't be my choice, but I'd be 100% game for something that is miraculously short-term. I struggle to see how that's possible, as I'm fairly certain that the overlap in "what would I be willing to offer Jorginho contractually" and "what would Jorginho accept" is a shrug emoji. Anything that involves multiple years and a sizable transfer fee doesn't seem to coincide with the direction of the club, and unlike what would happen in a Caicedo doomsday case, he wouldn’t be movable.
From there, I outlined the scenarios:
If the choice is between ~10m extra for Caicedo and this, that's an easy choice to me. I think Caicedo is already marginally superior, and will be next year, and the year after that, and the year after that — and if he isn’t, the ages/wages mean there are options.
If the choice is between no one and Jorginho (somehow) short-term, I do the latter. He will absolutely improve the roster for a title run, and I'm generally in support of the team going past the pure age model to try and find value elsewhere in all this ridiculousness.
If the choice is between no one and a Jorginho ~3 year deal, I do the former and pray.
My issue was never with Jorginho the immediate player, but with Jorginho as a depreciating long-term asset.
I genuinely love the idea of Jorginho being capable depth for the title push—few players are more likely to provide that better at this position, and they may all be unavailable. But I hated the idea of his wages being on the books in 2+ years, and I was concerned that this was an LA Rams, YOLO, fuck-the-hangover, let’s-try-and-get-a-title move that jeopardizes the long-term vision—the first such move in years. (For those unfamiliar, the Rams did get a title last year, and were 5-12 in this campaign. Analyze as you wish.)
As it turns out, a short-term deal was possible, and that dramatically changes things. The cost and length of the deal indicates he really is just a short-term Elneny upgrade, which is mandatory after his long-term injury was confirmed.
As such, we shouldn’t understate things: Jorginho is a big upgrade on Elneny, and an enormous upgrade on whatever was behind him. This isn’t just true in pure production, but in minutes, as Jorginho is much more likely to gather meaningful game time from Partey and help keep him fresh and active.
For comparison, I pulled the Premier League data of Xhaka, Partey, Sambi, and Elneny — as well as Caicedo and Jorginho below:
🔥 In conclusion
Many things about Jorginho can be true at the same time. He’s slow. He’s active and reliable. He’s an excellent controller, turner, and varied passer, with just about the best skills on the market there. He can get worked around, but dives into challenges at 5 times more per game than Sambi, and like Tielemans, his slowness leads to a couple memorable moments that are then given disproportionate focus compared to his overall defensive contribution (and he’s more 6y than Tielemans). He’s still misunderstood, and impressions of him are often guided by emotions (which is fine, it’s football). He’s not as fun as Caicedo. He’s lackluster aerially. His leadership and coach-on-the-pitch communication skills are likely to be a big boon for a young team, just as they were with Zinchenko and Jesus.
But overall, I can’t shake the feeling that Jorginho playing in a first-place team that dominates settled possession, and is supported by a 2-3 (or 3-2) “rest defence” with White, Saliba, and Gabriel all marauding around him, may have serious potential.
I’m frustrated after the Mudryk and Caicedo pursuits, but the additions of Trossard and Jorginho undoubtedly increase the trophy odds: not just for Premier League, but for the Europa.
Whatever the noise, when we go back to the phrasing of the stat—Depth Upgrades for the Elusive Lone Six—I'd say this concluded pretty well.
18 months? I’m good. The name of the blog stays. 👍
Another fascinating insight Billy! Was iffy when the rumours first came out, but I guess you can't understate the experience Jorginho has, especially given our cover in midfield. I'm still hopeful that there is a player in Lokonga, despite all the hiccups. Hope Vieira can make a player out of him yet!
Thanks for the great post Billy. It's not the dream signing but I'm relieved we made it considering the lack of depth in midfield. Relatively low-risk in terms of price and contract length and we sign a proven PL player.
We may not have gotten our dream signings on the wing or in midfield but we've gotten depth at relatively low cost. Excited for the future and what Edu will be grilling up.