How to counter the Spurs counter
Sometimes, I’ll give these a title like “a short look at [x player]” and then write thousands of words like a jackass. This time, I’m going to do my best to actually stay somewhat brief.
45 minutes on the clock, go!
Keys to defending with a high line
I decided to focus on attacking the Spurs defense earlier this week because I felt like most of what I had to say on the other end was said in this post: An exploration of Arsenal's high line, what went wrong against United on the counter, and how Arteta might fix it.
For all the good vibes the performances have merited in the season thus far, one thing was made clear in the responses: there's still some serious anxiety about defending the counter. This is rational, given the height of the Arsenal line, the United contest, and the last NLD.
As you'll see above, Tottenham has more than 2x as many counter attacks as Arsenal on the year, and those counters are 2x as likely to result in a shot. Per 90, that's 1.86 counter-shots to .42.
Previously, we listed eight keys to maintaining a high line when facing a team that likes to counter:
Keep possession
Immediate, effective counter-pressing
Bold, smart CB’s willing to risk it and hold the line
Speed and work rate
Tactical fouls
Active sweeper keeper
1v1 keeper
Stubborn manager
Today, we’ll largely focus on the pressing, counter and otherwise.
Why? The midfield. That last piece did a lot of referencing of Liverpool's tactics last year, and it's no surprise they have fared worse this year, given their midfield's struggle for control. Likewise, the midfield is where a lot of the delta lies in this match.
There's an outside chance Conte pulls in an extra midfielder and plays a 3-5-2, which paid dividends in the Leicester game. The temptation might be stronger if Kulusevski is out, as Moura already is. If that does happen, it just makes the midfield battle even more pivotal to the fate of the derby.
As Klopp says: “It’s not about the last line, it’s about what you do in front of that.”
What kind of line will Arsenal run?
I'd wager against Arteta dropping the line significantly in situations other than protecting a lead. (A fun mental image is the possibility of a Tomi/Tierney/Holding 78’ triple sub into a back-5, with Holding giving Son a “how ya like me now?” with a lead and his new squad behind him.)
There are three reasons for the probable line height:
This is how Arsenal plays.
High-pressing teams don’t actually allow more counter-attacks.
Tottenham themselves don’t necessarily always fare better against a high line. They struggled against Wolves/West Ham who engaged in a bus-parking competition, and they over-perform against Liverpool/City, but they got largely dominated against Chelsea in the highest-pressure line they’ve faced in a year, for example.
The real variable to their performances is whether or not they get rekked in the midfield. The teams that have caused them pain have ample support there: Wolves had 5 midfielders, Sporting 4, Chelsea had 4 or 5, West Ham cluttered the middle of the pitch.
This is in comparison to the stylings of YOLO Pep, who often ran a 2-2-6 in possession, and left Rodri on an island to defend everything himself.
When Spurs struggle, their pass-map looks something like this:
My apologies if you're eating lunch.
There are a few reasons they get so bogged down.
Højbjerg and Bentancur are playing well but are just all alone. If they get any kind of pressure, they have nowhere to go but back.
Players are hesitant to give it up the right flank (to Emerson) because they assume (rightly) he's probably just gonna give it right back.
Up the left, Davies can do some good LB-style progression (but may not play). Perisic didn't play in the above match, and even though he's been deadly with the cross and good overall, his style hasn't clicked with Son yet. He's more demonstrative, Son just wants to go, and Perisic occupies a lot of spaces where Son likes to play. This forces Son to cut inside and play more aerially, which isn't his strength.
With all that in mind, let's look at some of the ways to defend Spurs' particular blend of snap attacks.
Specific ways to defend Spurs' quick-attacks
I'm calling these quick-attacks because it feels a little bit more accurate. Conte himself, pride in tow, pushes back on the idea of this being a countering team (and uses troll-y Instagram posts to do it). He has some support for the claim. Two notes in his favor:
In the last NLD, which I needn't remind you was 3-0, zero of the goals were scored on the counter. One big moment that sure felt like one was Holding tackling Son, but that was just a run-of-the-mill possession by Spurs.
In their 3-2 win against City, likewise: 0 goals were scored via counter (though they were plenty dangerous). Two of the goals felt like counters but were actually just rapid build-ups after a goal-kick.
Here are three ways to defend these situations.
1. Get home on the press
When you press relatively high but don't actively challenge, you often get the worst of both worlds: a stretched defensive line, little chance of winning possession or disrupting play, and opponents with the space to pick out more dangerous passes.
Here's what happened before Holding got sent off.
Eddie is running at Sánchez as he passes, but the rest of the pressure is passive. The commentators have been talking for ~2 minutes about how Arteta is screaming at the team to move up, move up, move up — but they all feel afraid of being caught out...
...Saka listens to Arteta's pleas and starts running upfield. But unfortunately, Eddie drops back to cut off passes to their midfield, often their most conservative area...
...with the extra space afforded to him, Dier surveys the pitch. Eddie starts a challenge too late, and Dier picks out a long pass to a running Son. Holding gives him the shoulder and is sent off.
Time and time again, you'll see this pop up in their matches: half-hearted challenges upfield, or safe/positional/lane-cutting defense, resulting in chances for Spurs seconds later.
In the big early goal at the Etihad that's been analyzed to death, Silva and his cohort are surrounding Romero instead of actively challenging him. He is nonetheless comfortable and pings one over to Davies ...
...Sterling then doesn't challenge Davies hard enough; Walker probably gives Sessegnon too much respect on the wing; and Rodri cuts off a tough pass to Son instead of an easier pass to Kane. Davies whips it to him...
...who doesn't think for a moment before ripping it to Son, who could have scored but passed it to Kulusevski for the goal.
While I'd never tell City how to press, I'd much prefer Arsenal to run at the carrier and actually pester them instead of just trying to cut off passes to midfielders — and if they are to cut off lanes, it should be the ones leading to Kane.
From there, it's about showing commitment in those challenges and disrupting play.
2. Maintain composure on long balls
One might think that long balls are a natural advantage against a high pressing team, but it's often the opposite. While being pressured and offside-trapped, passing over a high line and into space is often a low-percentage endeavor, and a cheap way for the pressing team to regain possession. By my count — okay, by fb-ref's — Liverpool's opponents missed 1,736 long balls last year.
A few options here:
The first thing to do is to pressure the passer and disrupt the opportunity in the first place. Spurs have the highest long ball completion in the league at 67.6%, but their players aren't nearly as comfortable nailing these in traffic, and will backpass it when given the opportunity.
The second thing is to intercept (if you're in the midfield) or consider an offside trap (if you're in back). I'll admit it's an intimidating ask (particularly when thinking of Rodri's experience above), but occasionally a necessary one to unsettle Son and negate chances. In the second goal by United, White/Saliba sprinted with Rashford when they could have held a line:
From there, it's about Gabriel/White/Saliba calmly running with the attacker, leaning into them enough to slow them down, and everybody getting the fuck back. They can likely stick with Richarlison/Kane, but not Son. So...
If you're truly beat, you have to consider a tactical foul. I understand any reservations about this, but it can't be off the table completely. Rob Holding screwed up on multiple counts: he did it too early, he did it too often, he did it without subtlety, and he did it when he wasn't even beat.
To that end: when Holding was sent off, here's where Dier's longball to Son actually bounced:
That day, fear of the counter hurt more than any counter itself.
Fear is the mind-killer.
3. Flow possession where they’re least dangerous
Spurs' struggles usually boil down to a single factor: stagnant progression, particularly in midfield.
As noted above, Højbjerg and Bentancur have both been playing well, but they have few options progressively. Most of their highlights occur when they are given space.
They're both top-10 in the PL in backpasses. Wyscout has Højbjerg winning 43.8% of his offensive duels, and Bentancur winning 39.1%. (Caveat, btw: I find that dueling and dribbling can be messy data). Fb-ref has Højbjerg high in miscontrols (0.86 per 90) and dispossessions (1.29/90).
Because of that, here's one man's bullshitty, ill-informed tactical opinions:
When pressing, the front-three should attack the Spurs defenders directly, not positionally. If they manage to get the ball to the midfielders, who cares.
In the battle of the badass letter, Ødegaard (and his friends) harassing Højbjerg (after receiving the ball) is gonna be big. As you know, Øde is second in the PL in possessions won in the final 3rd, with 2 per 90. The Spurs midfielders need a body on them the second they get the ball, every time.
Flowing play to the right (Emerson's side) instead of the left (Perisic) is always gonna be beneficial. Almost every team has done this so far because it works.
Partey front-following Kane to disrupt any hold-up passes to him is paramount. Their left-side wing connection isn't fully developed (though why do I have the feeling it will be this game?), and Perisic can be caught speed-wise, so White/Partey taking a few steps to the middle is less risky, and can start to replicate some of the tactics of the heavier-midfield teams that make Tottenham struggle.
When holding the back line, Gabriel should "stay home" and leave some of the midfield disruption to players higher up the pitch, particularly if he's in partnership with Zinchenko on the left.
🔥 In conclusion, reasons for fear and hope 🔥
If I leave with you with anything today, it's this: often times, our mental image of "breaking up the counter" is VVD bodying a sprinting striker in the defensive half.
Much more regularly, it happens far away: a simple defensive move that slows things down a little and stops a dangerous advance from happening in the first place. There were good examples of this against Palace.
After a corner, a ball pings to Zaha, who is looking to turn and run or find Eze...
...Zinchenko steps up to delay his progress, and Xhaka, Martinelli, and Gabriel cut off angles. Zaha is Good at The Game and still able to get it away to start a counter, but thanks to those two extra seconds, the entirety of the Arsenal defense is back in time.
Overall, any big pre-match can feel like your own personal Rorschach test.
See what you will:
Reasons for fear: White/Saliba/Gabriel are occasionally still feeling each other out on offside traps and transition plays, Zinchenko will be up the pitch, and Kane/Son can take your best laid plans and still fuck 'em up. White may simply get outrun by Son; Gabriel lunges are extra-risky this match. There the normal concerns about penalties, Perisic crosses, and corners.
Reasons for hope: this time, Arsenal will be defending the scariest part of the grass with White-Saliba-Partey instead of Cedric-Holding-Elneny. On top of that, with up-field challenges so important, the front line's pressing is a different gravy this year — not just the addition of Jesus, but Martinelli and Odegaard turning it up a notch. They could dominate play in the middle of the field. Plus, it's at the Emirates.
I choose hope.
But I did not choose brevity. Two and a half hours later. Fuck.
Happy grilling everybody.