In advance of the North London Derby, a deep-dive into a question. How do you score against Spurs?
This week, I was interested in exploring the Spurs defense to better understand how Arsenal might try to flip a parked bus at the Emirates on Saturday.
This sounded like a sparkling idea until I realized this assignment included, among other things, watching a bunch of their first halves back again. After putting on another pot of coffee, and asking myself some hard questions along the way, I'm here to share what I've learned!
Some caveats before we begin:
🚩 I'll try and keep this focused on what factors Arsenal may exploit when attacking.
🚩 On defense, most of my thoughts are in this piece: An exploration of Arsenal's high line, what went wrong against United on the counter, and how Arteta might fix it.
🚩 This is largely a look at this year's iteration of the Conte Spurs, including most matches, all shot-creating actions and good opportunities, two of the more competitive friendlies, and a few games from last year (particularly the City match).
🚩 As always, I've hung up a blinking sign that says "I don't know what I'm doing." Believe any of this at your own peril.
First, to the tactics!
Tactical overview of the Spurs defense
Base Formation
Spurs play in a 3-4-3 (or a 3-4-2-1) with three center-backs, 2 wing-backs, a pair of DM's in a double-pivot, and 3 forwards up front. The overall system is more similar to Conte’s Chelsea than to his Inter (where he ran a 3-5-2 with Brozovic in a single-pivot). In his words, the Spurs tweaks are designed to "exploit the characteristics of their players," particularly Kane's ability in hold-up play and Son's ability in space.
Many fans have been calling for that extra midfielder to help with often-stagnant progression, and got their wish in the 70th minute of the last match against Leicester. Bissouma came on for Kulusevski, and Son scored three minutes later. Then again. Then again.
So a 3-5-2 might be a possibility, but it's probably unlikely. It’s hard to keep two of those forwards on the bench, and Conte built this team with a specific vision.
Defensive Shapes
Their shapes are a story of increasing compactness:
Out of possession in the opponent’s third, it’s a very passive 3-4-2-1 press, so not a press at all. It’s usually Harry Kane jogging between center-backs and keeping them somewhat honest, with occasional bursts of increased activity later in games (or when trailing).
Out of possession in the middle third, it starts getting more compact, with the wide forwards joining the midfield. The team stays close to invite balls to the wing, where they then look to lean and apply pressure.
The final third is where they’re most set and comfortable. It’s a disciplined, compact 5-4-1 that is zonal, meaning as opponents cut across zones they’re just calmly ushered to the next defender. They can occasionally do a 5-3-2 as well. Conte says that on defense, he never wants more than 35 meters of distance between Kane and his deepest CB.
Play Style
Using PPDA (Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action), they are 13th in the Premier League in pressure. It's not completely absent. In transition, they look to slow down the carrier, and occasionally, particularly in the second half, they turn up the pressure a little bit — not necessarily trying to “get home” but trying to rush actions. Richarlison in particular seems to be fighting his impulses in a passive press and wants to turn up the heat.
They are 17th in the league at challenge intensity. With a few notable exceptions (Romero and Bentancur come to mind), they are not especially fouly, tackley, or interceptiony. They play more in the style of their central CB, Eric Dier: solid, positional, noninterventionalist, zonal defense.
The ball is in the middle or defensive third 77% of the time. They’re 9th in possession (51.9%).
Despite their low block, their xGA is higher than Arsenal through seven matches (7.1 to 5.4).
They are generally more conservative in the first half than the second. Thanks to fatigue and a host of other factors, a rule in any match is that goals are usually more likely to be found later in the game. Their game against Nottingham Forest had an ideal xG timeline from their perspective:
🔥 5 ways to consider attacking Spurs 🔥
Without further ado, let's look into 5 ways Arsenal might score against Spurs, including:
💥 Mind thy shot quality
💥 Counter through the middle
💥 Identify when they're crunching the pitch
💥 Put the ball in play quickly
💥 Beat them on the dribble
OK, that's one hell of a verbose prologue. Let's get on with it, Billy.
1. Mind thy shot quality
Good teams often dominate possession and give up the fewest shots as a result.
To that end, here are the shots against per 90 leaders so far:
Not present? Tottenham. They are 16th in the league — giving up 15 shots per game.
All shots are not created equal, however, and this is a big part of Tottenham's philosophy. Against such a parked bus, it's human nature for an opponent to probe, dink it around, probe again, find nothing, eventually lose their patience, and rip a long shot into a wall of defenders.
While this can be an acceptable strategy against a typical low block, it doesn't find much success against them.
The stats are extreme:
They give up the lowest % of shots in their 6 yard box (4%)
They give up the lowest % of shots in their 18 yard box (50%)
They give up the highest % of shots outside of the box (47%)
Their opponents' shots average the furthest distance from goal (18.5 yards)
They are tops in shots blocked (5.57/90); [Arsenal is lowest at this on defense (1.86/90) and near the top at getting their own shots blocked (5.57/90)]
With as many as 9 men in or near the box, you can imagine how those shots go.
Here's an example of the kind of low-percentage shot they entice regularly.
Pedro Neto accepts it on the wing, and wants to act fast before Tottenham fully settles into their 5-4-1...
...he probes, but they get more compact as he does, and their zonal coverage means they calmly just pass him along to the next defender (this time it's Son; yes, this is where the Golden Boot winner plays on a normal defensive set)...
...Neto is then passed along once more, to Bentancur, and tries in vain to rip a shot through a ton of compressed traffic. It's blocked by two separate Spurs players.
In all, they've given up zero goals on these long shots by my count. One of the reasons is because this is where Lloris is best. He is pretty elite at positioning and moving his feet on the long bois, and has the lowest % of reflex saves in the league. He doesn't get tested close.
This is OK for Arsenal: they generally like closer shots anyway, and however much we yell at the screen to the likes of Xhaka and Odegaard to launch more from deep, perhaps that should wait until next match. What is the alternative?
One option is a pick pass like the below:
These passes (like Xhaka did last week for the Jesus goal) carry a higher degree of danger against Spurs. They require a lot of technical skill and timing to execute in a crowded box, and Dier is good in the air, but the opportunities can be lethal. This was still a near-goal on a header by Nunes, and a better chance than the long shots:
Jorginho had a similar opportunity that should have been put away by Ruben Loftus-Cheek, and a Sterling ball (more crossy, tbf) was the source of City's only open play goal in the thriller in February.
Whatever their warts, there's a reason we're referencing players at the level of Neves, Jorginho, and Sterling here. There's a quality threshold to make these chances happen, and luckily, Arsenal has a couple players at the requisite level.
(Quick editor's note on the shooting stats (my editor is my dog): while in truth I wrote this all before I saw it, I saw Orbinho tweeting out similar stats before I ultimately hit publish. I'd say great minds think alike but I am a doofus. In any case, my conscience dictates that I must cite him and his regularly great work!)
2. Counter through the middle
One of the primary reasons Spurs are happy to give their opponent possession is because their defensive shape is extremely conducive to their attacking shape, but not necessarily vice versa.
While they're extremely dangerous in possession, with forwards... forward... and Perisic super high on the wing looking to bang elite crosses by the corner flag, their supporting midfield is barren when transitioning back: two double-pivot DM's roam the entire middle of the pitch for themselves. Even their wide CB's start stretched to fill space of bombing wing-backs (though Royal is a pretty conservative attacker).
Because of that, they're vulnerable to counters up the gut. Here's an example from their last match against Leicester.
Wout Faes steps up from the CB position to intercept a ball destined for Kane...
...he is then allowed to dribble all the way to the middle third without bother. There was a mile of distance between the double-pivot DM's and the front line. He plays it up to Maddison...
...who is aggressively tackled by Lenglet, pinging it back to Faes. And now Tottenham is completely exposed. Faes plays a good ball to a cutting Daka, who was all alone and should have netted the chance, but — wait for it — settled for a long shot.
It's a high-risk move that requires team rotations, but it's easy to see Arsenal's most progressive ballcarrier (Big Gabriel) doing something similar. Everything else held equal, my preference is for him to stay home and have the 6 and Odegaard progress the ball in similar ways.
3. Identify when they're crunching the pitch
To help limit changes-of-play and dangerous passes, Tottenham also tilts to the side of the ball, and sometimes quite aggressively. They can stay narrowish to entice play on the wings before then moving to smother the ballcarrier's side, using the touchline's assistance.
If they win it, this actually puts them in a spot of bother: they're immediately vulnerable to the counter-press, because their standard, compact 5-4-1 is crunched to one side, and players might already be floating up to their attacking positions.
To show this, let's use an example in the match against Chelsea, which was probably the most fascinating tactical battle of the year, period.
After winning possession on a throw-in, the Spurs shape is all on their right side. It's crowded, and Romero is trapped, so he gets rid of the ball over the top...
...Koulibaly and Kanté hound Kulu and immediately dispossess him...
...Kanté turns and starts the attack. Look how exposed Spurs are: there are 9 players in this frame, which means it's a rare opportunity to have numbers in their third...
...Reece is all alone, and Sterling finds him...
...calm finish, bang. Chelsea 2-1.
While Tottenham leans to one side specifically to limit changes-of-play, that's what makes them so compelling: it's one of the only ways to get numerical advantages in their third.
The best way to unlock this is to attract a defensive overload, then ping it across the field, and quickly attack from that side before help arrives. Again, Neves did this. Because of the high range of difficulty, you need someone elite to complete the pass. Who can do such a thing?
Zinchenko can do such a thing.
For extra style points, here's him doing it from the halfway line:
(BTW: I went into this process with the expectation of leaning towards Tierney at left-back to disrupt the counter. After diving through the tape, I'm more Team Zinny. The spot of vulnerability with him so far up isn’t the place of most malice for them — Kulusevski cuts centrally and Royal doesn’t get in deep a lot, and is not an active crosser in any case. In attack, what’s needed is exactly what Zinchenko offers … safe possession and these elite passes in a crowded third. If Arsenal are able to get a lead, Tierney makes a great defensive sub.)
4. Put the ball in play quickly
At West Ham, Lloris was shaky all match at distribution and press-resistant passing, creating a couple of opportunities for his opponents on some questionable decisions. Jesus hounding him into a mistake is one possible path to a goal.
But we'll look at a broader topic here, which is putting the ball in play quickly.
As Tottenham settles into its 3-4-3 progressive shape (which transitions to more of a 3-2-5 in full attack), Lloris has a bad pass aimed at Perisic on the wing which goes out of bounds...
...Coufal smells blood, as you always should against a Tottenham team not yet in their defensive shape. Look how open the field is compared to usual. He sprints to the ball and surveys his attackers...
...he throws it quickly and directly to Antonio, who is boxing out Dier. Soucek starts his cut while Højbjerg is complaining to the ref for unclear reasons. The back 3 is stretched...
...Antonio pops it to a cutting Soucek...
...who blasts it into the back of the net.
The other opportunity for this is on saved shots on the other side. After a shot, Tottenham's 3-2-5 is usually pretty advanced, and the forwards have not yet tucked in to the midfield.
There are opportunities in two places: the middle (where, as we covered up above, the midfielders don't have lot of support) and the attacking RW (or Perisic's LWB side). He's happiest in the very top corner in the attacking phase, and at 33, can take a quick second to get back into position.
Overall, Wolves had a good game plan against Spurs, they just didn't finish their chances. José Sá kicked off a few good attacks this way. Within seconds of gathering, he was often kicking off deep attacks to the wings. Spurs might have immediate numbers but also be in transition, where they're most attackable.
5. Beat them on the dribble
There are two opportunities on the dribble.
Tight space and 1-2 stuff in the crowded box
Gaps in crowded zones can get busted through the Barcelona method of elite in-the-box dribbling and quick 1-2's. It's happened a couple times against Spurs this year: Rangers did it to them in a competitive friendly, and Sporting manufactured a couple of chances this way, first through Marcus Edwards doing some Jesus-type stuff for a near-goal, and then Arthur Gomes going solo with some Martinelli-type stuff for a stoppage time sealer.
Dribbling around wingbacks
A standard move against a low-block is to stretch the defense wide and then cut it in via deep cross. Tottenham is a little less vulnerable here because of the 5 back and the 4 right in front of them.
That said, a big opportunity here seems to be Saka vs. Perisic. Perisic is very sound positionally, but the last two matches have shown Saka has his legs back — he's not cutting in every time, and blew around a very-fast Malacia on the outside for a cut-back cross.
Saka can sometimes be awkward with his right foot here, so I think it'd be interesting to see him and Martinelli interchange more than usual, beat their marks to the goal line, and cut back with crosses on their dominant foot. Saka set up some great opportunities this way last year, and once to Ben White this year.
As shared by markstats: when Arsenal is in possession against opponents’ low block and Bukayo Saka receives the ball, a chance that within next 3 actions Arsenal will make a shot or deep completion is equal to 11.5% (higher than Messi 20/21).
Exploring other options
Corners: Both teams are good here, with Spurs having a few players in the elite category aerially, but there are two particular weaknesses to exploit if you can isolate a matchup: Kulusevski and Son. Son only won 31% of his aerial duels last year, and Kulu is even worse at 27%. Kulu getting bulled on a corner is what led to Sporting's first goal.
Romero: He was quite good last year in addition to his shit-housing. Particularly in big matches, he tends to turn the shit-housing up a notch — ask Cucurella's barber. This year, he's battling knocks and playing a little rusty, so his form has been a little lower, and his chaos a little less controlled. I don't think Martinelli/Jesus inducing a card or a penalty is beyond the realm of possibilities.
Score early: Captain Obvious reporting for duty: Arsenal should score as fast as they can! 29% of Tottenham's goals conceded are between minute 11 and minute 20, when they're starting to settle into the shape of a bus and working the kinks out. Arsenal can strike early and make them play more advanced than they'd prefer.
Hit worldies: Koulibaly scissored that one corner home. Mitrovic had a ridiculous curling ball. Maddison had a slow motion one-touch bending shot. Simply score world-class goals in the box, how hard is that?
🔥 In conclusion 🔥
Reviewing the list of 5 ways Arsenal might score at Spurs, here's what to look out for on Saturday, dn what could make a successful NLD:
💥 Mind thy shot quality: be disciplined about not settling for low-quality shots; try some box-lobs and crosses instead
💥 Counter through the middle: expose their lack of midfielders by quickly attacking the gut
💥 Identify when they’re crunching the pitch: if there is a change-of-possession when they’re leaning, or they're leaning heavily in general, change the play and attack immediately
💥 Put the ball in play quickly: throw-ins and GK distributions should happen in haste (also: pester Lloris)
💥 Beat them on the dribble: cut through zone lines, or have wingers go around wing-backs and do cut-back crosses
OK, that's all.
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Side note: my eldest joined his first team this week. Their name? The Flames.
Happy grilling everybody.
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