Introducing PWR

I'm back on my bullshit to help us sift through 289 potential midfield targets for Arsenal, using a new method called "Pair With Rice" (or PWR for short)

It's a different Arsenal this year.

Much digital ink has been spilled on this topic, not least of which here.

Here are the broadstrokes: The Arsenal braintrust eschewed the impulse to make minor tweaks to a squad that nearly won the title. This was perhaps an acknowledgment of a few factors. For one, variance may have been on Arsenal's side; other teams would adjust to this newly dominant form, as they did down the stretch; change and churn were inevitable; and finally, depth was needed. To use a phrase that is Profoundly Internet, usually in regard to 3D-printing 3D-printers or something: “Modern problems require modern solutions.”

And so, Arteta and Company conducted a bold series of moves, even when more incremental, safer options were there for the taking.

Declan Rice was to be the bulwark of this strategy. I'm not sure there's an intellectually honest soul who is questioning that investment right now. Jurriën Timber was to be another aggressive selection. His early usage would prove to be expansive and untethered.

They are not the points of contention; those are found elsewhere. In this humble writer’s opinion, David Raya shouldn't really be too controversial, at least for purely footballing reasons, and I'll just leave it there for now. We all know who I'm getting to.

Instead of finding a more prototypical #8 to replace Granit Xhaka — and there were a few on the market — the club opted instead to spend £65m on Kai Havertz. In my value-based model, Havertz would fare well, hovering around second (behind Szoboszlai) in the hybrid attacking rankings, so long as his transfer value stayed in the £35-55m range. With every successive million, things got much more … complicated … and other options looked more appealing. Xhaka, meanwhile, leads all of Europe in passes to the final third while playing for Kai’s old team, Leverkusen, and we are all left feeling things.

This gamble was multifaceted. The central question was this: could Arsenal successfully offset the loss of Xhaka in key areas (mostly in control, build-up, and defensive nous) in order to fling a bonus striker forward, reaping the attacking benefits that such a change would offer?

That transaction has gone a little differently than many would expect. For one, Arsenal have cemented their position as a bonafide defensive giant. Calling upon his inner Moyes, Arteta has led a side with as much claim as anyone as the “best defensive team in Europe.” In the increasingly-funded (and difficult) Premier League, they have conceded the fewest expected goals (9.2), the fewest shots on target (2.17/90), and the fewest goals overall. They've also beaten Manchester City twice.

Moreover, the new additions haven't just made up for the loss of Xhaka. They've increased the team's overall physicality. Competitors have noticed.

“Ødegaard, Havertz, and Rice — they are very good off the ball, in the duels, in the second balls," said Andoni Iraola after a 4-0 drubbing at Vitality Stadium. “It gives them strength in midfield to recover high and attack from there.”

One of the knock-on effects has been relative dominance in set pieces. Arsenal leads the league in set piece goals (with 8) and is conceding the fewest shots and xG on set pieces on the other side.

What about progression and control? This, on first glance, also seems to be going just fine. Arsenal notch 60.7% possession, an improvement over last year. They have the most touches in the attacking third (220.5/90) and the fewest miscontrols in the league (11.3/90). They are 0.8 progressive passes per 90 behind the league lead there.

So what problem are we trying to solve here, again?

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👉 Defining the problem

The “cost” of that Havertz transaction — no, not the money, I’m talking about the whole “build-up and defensive experience in exchange for goals” trade-off — has been much lower than one may expect. Havertz has directly contributed to the creation of an out-of-possession buzzsaw.

Meanwhile, progression has continued to take place, just elsewhere on the pitch, and with different characteristics. Saliba is attempting 20+ more passes per 90 in 22-23, and Raya is attempting 10+ more than Ramsdale did last year. With lower defensive looks — Arsenal face the lowest average height of defensive actions in the league — and improving work further back, Arteta has successfully proven a major point. The team can still dominate possession without a ball-dominant “left-8.”

While the cost is light, though, the return — extra attacking power — hasn’t come. Our impressions may be different if a few bounces went another way, or if a run was tracked, or if a header went into the back of the net. Still, it is fair to judge the role on output, and that hasn’t come yet.

To mine eyes, there are two problems to be solved.

🌤 Problem #1: Arsenal are not scoring enough goals

The projected attacking benefits of adding Havertz to the lineup have not shown their fruit. Granted, the team’s ability to generate penalties and set pieces shouldn’t be discounted completely. But neither should this.

With more of a settled opposition, Arsenal have needed to be more pinpoint with their killer passes and final actions. This certainly hasn’t happened yet. Watch a replay and you’ll see plenty of promising, unnoticed runs in the box. Liverpool have 31 more key passes and 45 more shots. Ødegaard, last year's Player of the Season, has been battling injury — and also found things increasingly claustrophobic through the middle as teams have often committed a shadow-marker to him. All of his creative stats are down.

Arsenal are also reliant on passing and wide carrying to move the ball forward. They’re 13th in the league in successful take-ons (with 8 per 90) and 9th in the league in carries into the final third (13.3 per 90). Declan Rice is dribbling less, Jorginho doesn’t offer much, and the Havertz/Ødegaard duo are not additive in that sphere.

It should be said that Xhaka wasn’t a stand-out performer on this, and many of these questions started being asked late last year. Nonethehless, central dribbling is important because it helps drag defenders out of place, especially as opponent blocks look increasingly stationary; you may have noticed Pep loading up on central dribblers of late for this reason. Arsenal look set here on the wings and with Gabriel Jesus in the lineup; otherwise, they look a little light, particularly through the middle.

🌤 Problem #2: The current and future make-up of the midfield

The second problem has more to do with depth and squad-planning. Arsenal’s current depth has been stress-tested to its core thus far, and largely answered the question. The squad list felt oddly strong while entering a Champions League matchup without Ødegaard, Jesus, Partey, Timber, or ESR; many of those individual absences would have spelled doom as recently as a year ago. Nice work, club.

Saliba and White are pivotal to the prospects of the season, and while backing them up is always going to be hard, the situation behind them still feels a bit precarious. This was especially notable in the waning, exhausted moments against Sevilla. Tomiyasu’s deployment to the starting lineup is going well, but deprives the bench of a do-it-all defensive sub, which has the secondary effect of making things feel thinner, and makes deploying Zinchenko in the midfield feel more risky.

Meanwhile, the big one in the midfield — the “single point of failure” — is Rice. Here’s what we wrote after the draw against Spurs.

There’s an issue with Arsenal depth, and the issue is that the very things that make Rice worth £105m — among them, his rare ability to serve as a stable platform for five attackers of any kind, pinning the ball over and over — make him a difficult player to cover. Make no mistake, Arsenal may have the best “six” depth in the world. The problem is that the squad has been remade with Rice as the fulcrum, and every midfielder Arsenal can offer looks better when partnered with him, and worse without.

I think that, by this point, Arteta has proven that Rice is so good that he can pair with a couple of goal-hounds and still have control and field-tilt; it’s now up to that shadow striker to turn that into goals. I have some questions about what happens if and when Rice can’t play during these more open games. It’s a difficult job for Partey, and it may require Jorginho to bend the laws of physics.

Ideally, you’d have the ability to cover Rice in aggregate — pairing a Jorginho with more of box-to-box threat. Perhaps the existing players can provide that to a surprising degree. For now, though, it’s just a lot of ground to cover, and Maddison took advantage.

Jorginho can stay as long as he wants in my book. But he’s getting old and I’m not certain, say, a Jorginho/Havertz/Ødegaard midfield can take us to the promised land. Meanwhile, if we’re looking to be responsible in our squad-planning, I think we’re past the point of hinging seasons on reliable contributions from Thomas Partey which, let’s face it, is as much of an issue as anything Havertz-related.

So the team needs actual Rice depth here, which equates to two things: a player who can partner with Jorginho (or a future #6) in solidifying the midfield, and some longer-term succession planning in the holding midfield spot.

Fabrizio Romano has reported that “Arsenal are gonna look again into the midfielders market in January after Thomas injury,” and he has said that Douglas Luiz is the prime target (and though Martín Zubimendi is appreciated, he is not expected to leave La Real). Other names have been floated in the meantime.

I believe a January move for a midfielder is the preferable course, but it’s a move that’ll require a lot of discipline; I am also incredibly patient with Havertz as he works things out. In any case, though, the midfield will need to be addressed before the next season kicks off, at very least.

Why don’t we start digging in now?

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👉 What profile should be targeted?

In January, I ran D.U.E.L.S., which raised Declan Rice as the clear #1 defensive midfielder option worldwide. In the post-Rice future, we must adjust our parameters.

With all that in mind, here are the questions I would ask of a player.

1. Positioning

   1. Can the player work alongside Rice and in his stead?

   2. Do they have potential as an every-week starter in the Premier League and Champions League?

   3. Are they more defensively sound than a typical 10? (Context: When paired with Rice and/or another #6 — say, Jorginho — they are likely to face some Big Boy Contests.)

   4. If thrust into the #6 position as a second-to-third choice, do they have enough skill to lead deep runs in major competitions?

2. Skill

   1. Does the player offer precise and direct creative passing to unlock play in the final third?

   2. Can they serve as a primary or secondary “controller,” bailing out progression and/or steadying play when needed?

   3. Do they offer the ability to receive and progress the ball under pressure?

   4. Can they drive and carry into space?

Who are we looking for? The team may be crying out for a “Young Gündoğan” — a true all-phases midfielder who can be a steadying controller and defensive presence as needed, a creative box threat as needed, and even a depth #6 as needed.

I’d suggest that the search should be wide, but the bar should be high: it is a rare profile that could do all this and tangibly improve the Arsenal squad, and with such midfield quality coming through the ranks in Charlie Patino, Ethan Nwaneri, and Myles Lewis-Skelly, only an advanced profile should do.

In the tradition of goofily-named rankings like BLANCO, Sakanelli, and D.U.E.L.S., we’ll call this one PWR, or “Pair With Rice” score. You can go a step further and call it “Maybe Acquiring a fleXible midfielder to Pair With Rice,” or MAXPWR.

Fine, I’ll post the video.

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👉 How to structure the search

I recently penned a long screed for SCOUTED Notebook called Mind Games, which looked at many of the reasons we may misjudge and misunderstand players. Some of that informed this work.

If this is your first time: when identifying transfer targets, I like to run a structured process to combine quantitative (data) and qualitative (“eye test”) factors, and rank potential matches along those lines. This isn’t a full-time job for me so there are some corners cut, and I’ll assuredly miss some players.

Here’s how I surfaced potential matches.

• ✅ Run a wide search: I pulled a list of 289 midfielders worldwide between the ages of 18-30 and worth more than €10m on Transfermarkt (though I manually added a few). I ultimately removed players who had already moved this summer, which includes our namesake.

• ✅ Pull attributes: I grabbed 26 different relevant attributes for this list of players, mostly from Wyscout.

• ✅ Group attributes:

  1. Passing/Receiving: Progressive passing, creative passing, passes to penalty area, volume, and more. This would have the heaviest weight.

  2. Dribbling/Carrying: Dribbling, carrying, progressive runs, efficiency, etc.

  3. Defensive Output: Total duels, defensive duels, duel efficiency, aerial duels, etc.

• ✅ Add my bullshit: From there, I add personal attributes based on some of the questions posed in the previous section — whether I think they are UCL-starter level, how well they could cover the 6, how high their overall potential is, etc. I certainly haven’t studied every player in the sample. Some I’ve watched closely, others I watched more closely because they were flagged in this search, others I just made an estimation based on their other numbers. Whatever.

• ✅ Add modifiers: Next, I add in an age adjustment, basic league adjustment, and valuation adjustment.

• ✅ Wrap it up: Build percentile rankings for each attribute, weigh them, and see what happens next.

Everything is subject to my own understanding and biases, and again, entire players are probably missed. That said, let’s get into it.

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👉 Alas, the leaders in PWR

So, who are the leaders in PWR?

Now, let’s go through some quick notes on relevant players — starting with a longer spotlights on a couple of the more important names.

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👉 Spotlight: Douglas Luiz

Why are links to Luiz so persistent? How can he possibly outrank Bruno G. here?

Take a look at this from Scott at CannonStats, and do remember to subscribe:

Prettayyyy, prettaaaaay good.

The simplest way to look at the Luiz profile is this: he does virtually everything well. Two summers ago, using my more rudimentary “BBQ” models — if you can call them that — he came in fourth as a DM target, and second as a more advanced 8 target. His stock has only gone up since then.

He looks so calm, crisp, and unbothered in the middle of the park, doing little twists and turns and using his body well to shield and receive. He flashes some genuinely special ability as a ball-striker. Untethered and playing further forward in the Emery system, he has been unleashed — linking up play, finding the killer pass, and blasting in some great finishes of his own (5 goals so far, though that includes a 3/3 on penalty kicks).

He’s passing more than ever (68 passes per 90) and also finding more creative little box actions too; he has a healthy impatience, and whips in a lot of good crosses from the half-space. His profile as an advanced eight seems to be improving by the week, and I think he’s still discovering levels there. And make no mistake, if (knock, knock) Rice is ever out, or needs a breather — Luiz is fully capable of playing the lone 6, and/or partnering with Jorginho, compensating for some of the latter’s athletic deficiencies. It creates a rare mix.

That said, there can be worthwhile concern about whether he’d be able to fully shield a backline if he’s placed behind a midfield like Ødegaard/Vieira. I also wonder if the eye test (and dead-ball statistics) may overvalue some of his advanced passing; it looks so good, but he’s only 56th percentile in shot creation on live-ball passes (2.02 per 90).

…and no, I can’t see Aston Villa parting ways with him this January. With everything he’s shown in the last year, he’s fully worthy of a Nunes-style bag (£53m), but if I’m Villa, I’m not sure how tempted I’d be by that. It would take additional factors. But one can hope.

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👉 Spotlight: Youssouf Fofana

In preparation for this article, Fofana is the player I watched most. I’d seen him plenty but never really studied him; in my lexicon, that means speed-running 3-5 full-90’s of games that have dramatically different characteristics. This included a Europa League tie against Leverkusen, some older in-league games, that game against us, and a couple World Cup appearances — including a start in the semi-final and a substitution in the final against Argentina. The fact that he starts on an absurdly-talented French squad should give you some sense of his abilities.

I described Luiz as doing “virtually everything well.” Fofana is the other potential signing who does. He is an entertainingly complete, intelligent midfield profile, often playing in a midfield two in all the major shapes — a 4-2-3-1, a 4-4-2, and a 4-3-3. He’s been the deepest midfielder and the more advanced one. His partnership with Tchouaméni (for club and country) can give us a template for what it might look like with Rice, and the results are good. When he’s a #6 he looks like a #6, when he’s an #8 he looks like a #8.

He’s good at positioning himself and recovering the ball, using his 6’1 frame to muscle off opponents and push it the other way:

Source: WyScout

He’s good at doing that in more advanced areas:

Source: WyScout

He’s good at passing in key areas, whether in build-up or further up:

Source: WyScout

He’s 99th percentile in goal-creating actions right now (0.6 per 90) but that may be a little bit of variance; in any case, he creates a lot of shots for his club.

He progresses the ball a lot, even though he’s often found further up:

Source: WyScout

As a dribbler and carrier, he is 99th percentile when sampled alongside more “DM” type midfielders. His work in tight spaces has a little in common with Partey: he likes a tiny, confident turn to get a little space, then blasting off a line-breaker.

Source: fb-ref

He also shoots from distance a lot (~2 shots per 90) and is excellent in the air.

So what’s the catch? Really, there is not much of one. Fofana himself rejected possible moves to Nottingham Forest and Fulham in the summer, believing that his opportunity at Monaco was superior.

“Sincerely, I was between staying and leaving. I’ve always said I have no problem with staying, especially at a club like Monaco, who are always competing at the top. I have personal expectations and objectives. Maybe a departure wasn’t the best thing for me. I am very, very happy to have stayed and to have this status in this team,” he said. 

The offer was for €35m + add-ons, which feels well within reason. It’s just a question of whether Monaco would let him go in the middle of a trophy chase. Apparently, his contract runs to 2025, not 2024, as I’ve read elsewhere.

The question around him is just his final level. He may stay in the “very good” tier: an all-action player you are happy to see start or come off the bench in equal measures. Perhaps Arsenal should be aiming a touch higher at this stage in the project. If you squint your eyes, you can see a potential world-beater in Luiz. I saw Fofana lose a couple runners in the box over time, and have a couple dangerous losses, as one does in a high-responsibility role.

But when you factor in his completeness, intelligence, readiness, versatility, value, age, and all that — there’s a good chance I’d be recommending Fofana if I worked for the club.

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👉 Notes on everybody else

Here are some quick notes on everybody else in that list:

• First, there’s Frenkie de Jong. His profile was unmatchable thanks to his creative passing, dribbling, and relative defensive solidity. We’ve seen a decent amount of unclocked free runners in the box of late, and FDJ would probably solve those problems overnight. He has 5.01 shot-creating actions per 90 thus far. There are big “buts,” though, and I cannot lie. Very few of them are about him as a player — his complete unwillingness to leave, his absurd wages, and the fact that he’d probably not serve as more than emergency depth behind Rice at the #6. He can look a little leggy and overmatched when defending great athletes in huge spaces.

• I did not expect Aurélien Tchouaméni so high, considering this is a search that weighs more heavily towards qualities of a more advanced midfielder. He just offers too much as a player. Imagine he and Rice together taking everybody’s lunch money.

• Eduardo Camavinga could probably be described as my personal dream candidate. He’s got ideas, he’s got destructive defensive instincts, he’s got work-rate, he’s got superlative gifts. His bursty, winding dribbles would unlock so much, his versatility would help him stay on the pitch, and I think he’s got a lock of untapped potential as a more advanced presence.

• Fuck Bruno Guimarães.

• Martín Zubimendi ranked #4 in D.U.E.L.S., after only Rice, Caicedo, Enzo and Camavinga, and more prestigiously, I listed him in my “Turn on the Television XI” as the defensive midfielder I like watching the most. He might be the best current embodiment of the whole “Watch Busquets, see the whole game” thing. Every time something happens, he’s already taken three steps in that direction. His feel for the game can border on creepy. Xavi agrees: “Zubimendi is an extraordinary pivot. He dominates the game, the moments with and without the ball. He wins duels, he is an extraordinary player in that position. He understands the model we like at Barça.” He’s a little lower than the others here because of their numbers up the pitch (passes into the penalty area, key passes, etc). Zubimendi is brilliant at driving tempo and pinging balls throughout, and I think a Rice/Zubimendi partnership would go brilliantly, but he’s also not necessarily the unsettling dribbler or final-passer that the team feels light on right now, and I find his temperament on the pitch (which can always change) to be that of a true pivot. Put better: I reckon he’s more Partey’s replacement than Xhaka’s. As such, a Zubimendi signing may commit Rice’s future to the #8, and there would be risks of more 1-0 and 1-1 type games if the final action never comes. That, and he doesn’t seem to want to leave San Sebastián — which, fair. Slim chance normally, almost-zero chance during a promising UCL campaign.

• Imagine trying to score against a team with Rice and Amadou Onana in midfield, and Saliba/Gabriel/White behind. There are few players whose development has impressed me more than Onana. In addition to the best set of base characteristics imaginable, he is adding all kinds of subtle little details to his game, honestly looking more Rice-like by the day: a bit of carrying and box crashing, a bit of turning and line-cutting, and a whole lot of pure destruction. You look for unicorn profiles at this level — stuff that a top club can’t easily match with money — and a Rice/Onana pivot would be almost impossible to replicate. He should also be very expensive.

• I am probably lower than most on Mats Wieffer for this role, but the numbers (and value — he’s €15m on transfermarkt) disagreed. At 24, he’s one of the better players in the league at Feyenoord, and like Luiz/Fofana above, is pretty much good at everything. His underlying numbers are #nice and a Wieffer/Rice pivot would be heavy metal. That said, when I watch him, I can’t help but think he’ll be most at home in a true double-pivot (4-2-3-1 type system), because I don’t see the last layer of polish in his final actions as an advanced midfielder, or the more “sitting and dictating” qualities of a #6. It’s not to say he can’t develop that, but I find some of the other players a little more additive.

• I’m not the most up-to-date with the latest dynamics at Bayern, and I’m not fully sure why I think this, but every time I watch Joshua Kimmich for club and country, I feel like he could benefit from a change of scenery. This usually pops up when I see him playing as the deepest midfielder, or pounding in another corner (when better corner-takers are on offer). Throwing him in the #8 next to Rice and Ødegaard would offer the power to rejuvenate. It would also cost a ridiculous sum of money, and has next-to-no chance of happening in January.

• Manuel Locatelli is higher in my personal stuff than he is here, but his underlying numbers aren’t shining in Allegriball. Another player who could use a change of scenery; I would have loved to have seen him reuinted with De Zerbi at Brighton.

• Manu Koné is a brilliant dribbler who always wants to be in the action and make things happen; he’s also a defensive beast who could add to the “Thou Shalt Not Pass” feeling of the squad, and would do a great job of covering space if somebody other than Rice were to start alongside him.

• As you’ve read in these parts, I think Teun Koopmeiners could be a stellar match for this club. As far as additive qualities, what I like about him is his risk tolerance as a passer: he’s perfectly secure in short build-up, but he interprets his advanced passing like Kevin de Bruyne — i.e., “fuck completion percentage, let’s score goals.” If he had a little bit more burst to cover bigger spaces, he might be incredibly high on my list. Here’s what I wrote last time: “As one of the better players in Serie A this year, he strikes me as the exact kind of player you want when entering Champions League. He just turned 25 and is technical, press-resistant, experienced in being a hub of possession, extraordinarily positionally aware, and has every pass in his bag. The Atalanta style of play means he does a lot of long passes and switches, but he’s comfortable in more grounded build-up. He could play as an advanced 10, picking out smart passes like SMS in the Xhaka channel, but his career heatmap looks like Zinchenko’s — he’s comfortable building play from deep, and even played plenty as a central defender back in the day. Dead ball specialist, to boot.”

• It struck me at some point that Pascal Groß is nearly the exact player I’d like to have for the run-in. That sound you hear is a mob from Brighton coming for my head. He could playing as an attacking #10, he could spell White at right-back, he could control things from deep, and he’s got the exact little turns and final passes that are lacking. He’s 32, so this would be a Jorginho-style signing, and highly unlikely in any case. At €8m transfermarkt value, he overcomes his age to be a highly-rated option here.

• Angel Gomes hadn’t crossed my mind until doing this. I vastly prefer him in the deeper orchestrator role, and a famously-diminutive frame doesn’t exactly pair well with Jorginho if Rice were to go out. But a Rice/Gomes pairing … kind of rips?

• Rúben Neves makes an enormous amount of sense as a short-term acquisition. Beyond that, I’d have some questions.

• The more I watch Ivan Ilić, the more I like him. He feels like a thoroughly modern player, big and technical, just wanding the ball all over the pitch. He’d strike me more as a Kiwior, kind-of-ready-but-kind-of-developing type player, but his trajectory has been steady and steep, and if we’re missing those thoughtful balls that play Martinelli into space, Ilić offers a lot to like. He’s also got some nice rips in him, and is looking stronger as he gets more primary defensive responsibilities. Want another vote of confidence? In January, Brighton tried to get him.

• The next three, Ismaël Bennacer, André and Maxence Caqueret, would be higher on my list for signings at other clubs. Here, I think they may have trouble finding an ideal role, as they’re not quite threatening enough in final actions, and not quite “holding” enough to run the show from deep. There were times I was on the fence about Caqueret but I like what I’ve seen from him this year, despite everything going on at Lyon. André’s style may face some growing pains depending on the league and situation.

• Florentino Luís, also, would be a nice choice for some other club vacancies (I thought Liverpool should have gotten him instead of investing in their 24th left-8) but I don’t really think he fits here anymore.

• I don’t know about Kalvin Phillips, man. I also don’t think he should come here; he should be finding a lower-midtable club where he can start a lot and get back on his feet.

OK, that’s the initial list of 22 players. What else should we cover?

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🤨 Who are some more attacking profiles who could be targeted?

From a squad-building perspective, I really like the jigsaw of a player who can fill in across all three spots, which offers rotations, gametime, and situation-specific adjustments across the pitch; in other words, genuine Declan Rice depth. If you get, say, Douglas Luiz, I think that depth at the #6 has a clear vision: in the short-term, Rice/Jorginho/Luiz, plus whatever happens with Partey — then, in the future, Rice/[a young #6 like Moscardo]/Luiz. And don’t forget Elneny! For that reason, I am partial to a profile like that.

There’s also a good argument to just get a purer #8, once and for all. After an initial tier (Wirtz, Musiala, Barella, Paquetá, Kökçü), here are a few that come to mind:

• Enzo Le Fée, Rennes — Small and mighty and ball-dominant.

• Khéphren Thuram, Nice — A nice, do-it-all box-to-box midfielder who already offers brilliant skill as a carrier, and rare potential across the board.

• Désiré Doué, Rennes — My fave attacking midfield prospect, bar none. Actually it might be Arda Güler. Whatever.

• Isaac Babadi, PSV — My second or third fave in this role long-term. He is definitely more of a longer-term option, though.

• Julian Brandt, Borussia Dortmund — At long last. He had 17 G+A in each of the last two years and would be really comfortable in that left channel.

• Eberechi Eze, Crystal Palace — Hello. I heard you would like to unsettle a low-block.

• Aleix García, Girona — Has as good a claim as anybody as the best midfielder in the world on form right now. He’s small, dictating play from low, and isn’t a perfect fit for Arsenal, but I feel confident he’d figure it out.

• Curtis Jones, Liverpool — Can’t help but think there will be fallout from Liverpool’s plan to stack like 10 midfielders with similar profiles. For my money, Jones’ carrying, progression, and ball-striking would look best in the spot.

• Álex Baena, Villarreal — My understanding of him as a player is a little surface-level. But the numbers look good!

• Jacob Ramsey, Aston Villa — 13 G+A last year and with an arrow pointing up. Has been battling injury this year.

• Pedro Gonçalves, Sporting CP — He always shows up really high in my models. I’m surprised he hasn’t moved yet. You may remember him ruining our night in the Competition Which Shalt Not Be Named.

• Matt O'Riley, Celtic — Speaking of moves, I’d expect O’Riley back in England post haste (he had one appearance for Fulham in the Championship back in the day, then 49 for MK Dons in League One before going to Celtic). He’s got 26 G+A since the start of last year, and is a slick-pass machine. I’m not sure he’s totally Arsenal level but some mid-table club is going to be very happy with him.

• Lazar Samardžić, Udinese — I keep praising players who have ideas. Samardžić is definitely one of those.

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🤨 Who does your model flag as the best values, Billy?

If you’re looking for a Brighton-style signing, here are a few players that perform well when looking at potential, profile, current production, and their transfermarkt value. I like Keita a whole lot:

• Mandela Keita, Antwerp

• Youssouf Ndayishimiye, Nice

• Matt O'Riley, Celtic

• Nicolò Rovella, Lazio (Juventus)

• Ethan Ampadu, Leeds

• Santi Comesaña, Villarreal

• Samuele Ricci, Torino

• Daniel Boloca, Sassuolo

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🤪 What are your worst ideas, Billy?

OK, now let’s do a speed round of quick, potentially bad ideas for addressing the issue. Every once in a while that process can spring something decent. Here goes…

You already heard me pitch the idea of doing a Jorginho-style deal for Pascal Groß. I can’t imagine them sanctioning it … Rúben Neves on a loan isn’t even too controversial of a concept, I don’t think … Speaking of the Saudi Pro League, could Franck Kessié be lured back? He’d fit most of the requirements … Youri Tielemans made a truly weird career decision by going to an upper-midtable, end-to-end club who are absolutely stacked in the midfield. He’s not playing a lot, and a Rice/Tielemans/Ødegaard midfield is actually pretty balanced on paper … I have supreme confidence in the ability of Xavi Simons to do almost anything on the football pitch, including even being a turny, controlly 8 and speedy wing depth. Two birds, one very expensive stone … Fuck it, just call up Ethan Nwaneri. I’m not rushing him, you’re rushing him … I can’t imagine Pierre-Emile Højbjerg is too happy with his current role. Could he be lured away? … I enjoy trying to shoehorn players I like a lot into any discussion, so I’ll do that now: you can solidify the backline and even get some defensive midfield help with Lutsharel Geertruida. You can also potentially play Ferdi Kadıoğlu all across the pitch.

Aren’t we glad we got that out of our system? Let’s pretend that never happened.

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🤨 The prospect list

The primary list had a priority on readiness, but after the top-10 or so, I’d default to a short-term solution … or I’d just move to a younger profile.

Which prospects, you ask? Here are those who have caught my eye — and they’re pretty much in order.

• Gabriel Moscardo, Corinthians — The most EPL-friendly #6 profile in the world, in my eyes. He ranked #4 on my Scouted50 list of breakout talents. He has everything you’d want as a starting point. Just turned 18.

• João Neves, Benfica — Neves did not make my top 10 in that list, and I already regret it, as I’ve watched him more since. He is Kanté and Gavi rolled into one, and might give Conor Gallagher a run for his money for the amount of psychotic energy he brings to the pitch; he’s short but has won every open-play aerial duel I’ve ever seen him contest (haha). He’s got a lot more in his bag, including absolutely slick ball control, and Benfica will rightfully ask for an astronomical bounty.

• Arthur Vermeeren, Antwerp — Belgium is continually proving itself as a challenging stomping ground for young talents; look at how, for example, Victor Boniface is finding Germany easier than the Jupiler. At 18, Vermeeren is almost oddly fully-formed, and is already captaining Champions League games for a title-winning side. Go check him out against Porto. I think he can play right away.

• Óscar Zambrano, LDU Quito — Only checked him out twice, but the hype seems warranted.

• Lucas Gourna-Douath, RB Salzburg — Lot of technicality, lot of tackling, lot of flexibility.

• Federico Redondo, Argentinos Jrs. — I’m a little lower than some on him, at least in his present carnation, as I think his play-style isn’t necessarily league-agnostic, but will keep an open mind. He’ll do well in Spain and/or Italy but he likes playing so demonstratively; I’d wonder about the speed and defensive violence in the EPL. Perhaps he just needs another year or two of cooking.

• Lucien Agoumé, Inter Milan — He’s gone as high as #2 in my defensive midfield rankings in the past, and has looked good whenever he plays, but Inter has him on the bench. Free this man.

• Hugo Sotelo, Celta de Vigo — I’ve only caught him in passing (and on his comps) but his on-ball stuff certainly looks on the level.

• Adam Wharton, Blackburn Rovers — Go check him out sometime. Great profile in The Athletic here.

• Lucas Bergvall, Djurgårdens IF — At 17, probably too much of an age/style overlap with some of our other starlets, but Bergvall looks comfortably around that level.

• Noah Lahmadi, Toulouse FC B — I like Toulouse’s scouting and in limited time, Lahmadi caught my eye.

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🔥 In conclusion

I hope that was the slightest bit interesting for you. With so many reports swirling about Arsenal targeting a midfielder, I want to start this conclusion by reinforcing my belief in the current options — while acknowledging the lack of a specific, necessary profile, particularly long-term. So much of that search is going to be determined by market opportunities, which is why I wanted to include so many players in this sample.

I’d be overjoyed by the top-two realistic(ish) options on the list: Douglas Luiz and Youssouf Fofana. From there, there is a long slate of interesting options, but some specific club mechanics (and outgoings) will rule the day.

The good news is that beyond that, there are still ways to work through this — whether that be a younger profile like Moscardo or Vermeeren, or a defensive signing that frees up other players to join the midfield more.

Or this list just serves as a starting point for the business next summer. Either way, here’s to hoping that this work (and your reading) wasn’t in vain.

Have a good one.

Billy loves you.

❤️🔥