Life without Timber

In a cruel twist, Arsenal must navigate a critical season sans Jurriën Timber. Here's a look at what options are on the table, including 17 possible additions to the backline

Aug 19, 2023

Jurriën Timber is, in all likelihood, out for the year. This is a brutal thing to type, especially after seeing all he brought to this Arsenal squad so early, from his brain to his feet. You may have noticed the underscore of hopeful pleading in that first sentence: “in all likelihood.”

I liked him a whole lot, as you’ve read, and am actively trying to deny reality — you know, like an adult.

Here’s what Arteta had to say:

“It’s a huge blow, especially for him having just joined the club to have the injury that he has is a huge disappointment for him. Obviously for the team it’s a big blow because we recruited him with clear intentions and what he was bringing to the team was evident and he’s not going to be in this season for us. We have to adapt, these things happen unfortunately, and we have to move on.”

The question, naturally, veers to whether or not Arsenal will look for an addition to the defensive line to offset his absence during a particularly ambitious campaign. The answer, from my perspective, is a non-answer. Of course, but it depends.

Outgoings are crucial at the moment. Edu’s office is seemingly working hard on finding new homes for the likes of Balogun, Tierney, Cedric, Holding, Tavares, Lokonga, Balogun, and Pepe. I’m supportive of all that.

This is important not only for the incoming funds, but also for the squad size. If the team maintains an element of bloat, and an addition or two come in, there is a probability of a player like Tierney simply missing the matchday squad for long stretches; right now, he’s already probably 22nd in the pecking order of the healthy, non-Timber list (so two past the arbitrary cutoff). Worse in my mind, if the team isn’t properly tuned to the task at hand, it could put players like Fábio Vieira, Jakub Kiwior, or Emile Smith Rowe at increasing risk of the same during pivotal moments in their careers. That’s a bit of a non-starter for me.

In other words, the squad has to get cut down to open up the room for a move. From there, we want to understand whether a move is even necessary.

Do we need somebody? If so, where?

As we’ve discussed squad building in the previous months, we sloppily borrowed some terms from the world of engineering. The first was this:

Fault tolerance is the property that enables a system to continue operating properly in the event of the failure of one or more faults within some of its components. If its operating quality decreases at all, the decrease is proportional to the severity of the failure, as compared to a naively designed system, in which even a small failure can cause total breakdown.

The next framework we covered was “redundancy,” and, more specifically — triple modular redundancy:

In engineering, redundancy is the intentional duplication of critical components or functions of a system with the goal of increasing reliability of the system, usually in the form of a backup or fail-safe, or to improve actual system performance.
In many safety-critical systems, such as fly-by-wire and hydraulic systems in aircraft, some parts of the control system may be triplicated, which is formally termed triple modular redundancy (TMR).

The injury has decreased our fault tolerance, and removed some layers of redundancy from the system.

Pardon my bullshit. The simpler way of looking at it is this: in the event of an injury to two options at a general profile/position — as happened last year with Saliba and Tomiyasu — is the team fucked?

In our post-Timber future, it looks like this:

👍 At LB, if Zinchenko and Tomiyasu go out, there is still Kiwior, Gabriel, and even Rice available.
👍 At LCB, if Gabriel and Kiwior go out, there is still Tomiyasu — as well as the option to shift Saliba and/or White over.
😬 At RCB, if Saliba and White go out, there is still Tomiyasu — but things look a little thin after that. Kiwior/Gabriel can slide over in a pinch, but may not be ideal CCB’s in build-up, where there is still a lack of depth.
😬 At RB, if White and Tomiyasu go out, there is Partey — but things look a little thin after that, and a Partey inversion doesn’t suit every matchup (especially in a pairing with Zinchenko), and may not suit any showdown with a top side.

Perhaps Rice could be additional cover at RCB/RB, who knows, and there is also the possibility of call-ups from the youth system, which we’ll discuss in a moment.

Now, when you combine that with the Asian Cup and AFCON in the winter, which could impact both Tomiyasu and Partey — and you also factor in the injury histories of those two and Zinchenko, plus the possibility of more yellow-card suspensions this year — things start to feel a little precarious.

There is, especially, a huge reliance on not only William Saliba, but Benjamin White. As we learned all-too-well last year, we want to get rid of these:

Is there an internal solution?

Any conversation should really begin with an honest evaluation of Reuell Walters. The 18-year-old hybrid CB/RB is a thoroughly modern player, more advanced in both technical know-how and physicality than his age would indicate.

Originally signed by Tottenham, he took a couple years off before joining the Arsenal system as a U16. He's been capped by England in the 18s and u19s, and has played a virtually perfect smattering of roles for the current need: a lot of RB, a good amount of RCB, and comfortable work in spots at LB as well.

My impressions still feel a bit incomplete, but I tend to think he’s ready to face some big boys as both a defender and a dribbler, and think his positional understanding has been well-honed in the system. That said, I haven’t personally seen enough Saliba/White-style range or incision from his passing yet to feel comfortable with him getting the minutes of real import, and his first touches don’t always feel glued-on to me. Let’s not forget that White’s role can get in the 80-, 90-, or even 100-pass range at times, all while pushing up the pitch and then tracking Premier League wingers back. It’s a tough gig.

I’m generally bullish (though slightly tempered) on him as a player, want to default to Hale End for situations like these, and caveat my impressions with a sample size warning, but can’t fight the feeling that he’s about a loan away. I’m not sure it’d be fair to his development to put him two knocks away from potential Champions League starts, but I’d still greatly prefer him over a non-ideal fit. There’s a reasonable case towards leaning on him through January and seeing what happens.

What kind of profile should be targeted?

From there, we deal with the confusing reality of a wonderful, versatile player being signed (Timber), but unavailable for a year.

As such, here are some principles I’d embed in this decision:

Perhaps accelerate the vision, but don’t undercut it: You don’t want to get caught in the trap of assigning long-term investment towards short-term problems. (Something, something, Chelsea.) As such, any player signed for multiple years has to fit into the long-term vision of the club, and provide enough additive qualities to carve their own path in a future where Timber is back.
Max-potential for a long-term signing: The role on offer is one of real minutes, but reasonable expectations. The starters still look to be in good shape, and the minutes can grow if a player overperforms; it is not disastrous otherwise. As such, I would generally lean towards the players of maximum (rather than “mean”) potential. I am risk-tolerant here.
Otherwise: If a player can’t be found to meet bullets 1 and 2, it should be a perfectly constrained, short-term solution. Ideally, a one-year loan.
Otherwise, part II: If a player can’t be found to meet any of the first three bullets, or we flop on outgoings, then discipline must reign, and the internal route should be chosen.

I’d lean to the right side (RB/RCB) with the options, but ultimately, just seek the best possible player profiles.

A dubious, incomplete list of my targets

In the winter and early spring, we did an extensive look at possible additions at full-back and RCB, capping the budget in the €40m range (based on transfermarkt), going through hundreds of options, and leaning towards players that we’d generally be confident could contribute immediately.

Since then, we’ve gained some clarity. Tomiyasu and Saliba have both returned from injury, looking good. Kiwior contributed some solid performances near the end of the season, showing versatility along the way. Partey has been used at right-back, and the roll-out of Timber points to a desire to invert from both sides.

We’ve also been able to watch the players some more. As such, we’re going to lean on some previous insights while adding some notes based on new information; what follows is a bit of a compilation episode of the BBQ.

Josip Šutalo would factor in highly here — he was actually our top choice at RCB last time — but seems to be off to Ajax. If that changes, I think it’s worth looking into, as he screams “Arteta passer.”

With that, here are some players to consider.

Group I: Bigger Swings

In our first group, we target the most exciting profiles, period. In the back of my mind, I may admittedly be leaning towards fortifying the giant-slaying 4-back (White/Saliba/Gabriel/Timber) that we saw against Man City. I also can lean towards CB’s because the good ones can be FB’s, but not vice versa.

Here goes. Let’s start with the most fun, not necessarily because he outranks the couple to follow, but because this is my newsletter, and I can do what I want.

Anel Ahmedhodžić, Sheffield United (CB)

From last time:

May I confess my priors? Second is a compromise here. Ahmedhodžić may appear fourth or fifth on this list if I were purely going with my head; but he’s first in my heart. He’s one of the most enjoyable defenders to watch anywhere.
Joining from a relegated Bordeaux, the 24-year-old is a pivotal reason for Sheffield United’s rise in fortunes, including a promotion to the Premier League (with three games to spare) and a FA Cup run that took them to the semi-finals through Wrexham, Tottenham, and Blackburn, only getting bounced by Man City. He has a reasonable (if disputed) claim as the best player in the Championship this year.
His star qualities showed up immediately. He’s giant (probably 6-5), fast, and a frontline-quality dribbler, with some Declan Rice in his game there. As the rightmost CB in a back-3, he plays the role of “overlapping CB,” which is almost a hybrid inverted RB role that sees him carry the ball forward and create overloads in the box. His nose for goal has resulted in 8 G+A, including expected set piece headers, and some real highlight reel bangers in pivotal moments. Behold this cut and 1-2 against Wrexham.
But his most likable quality may be his defensive activity. His closing speed allows him all kinds of opportunities to be aggressive, and I’ve never seen him anything but switched on. I saw him match every step with Julián Álvarez; I saw Haaland do those give-and-go’s where he bursts into space, and Ahmedhodžić kept up every time. I saw him lock down Son Heung-min, and was probably the best player on the pitch for that one, winning 8/9 duels, 4/6 aerial duels, and making 19 recoveries. He directly faced off the likes of Messi and Mbappé in France, though I haven’t watched those in full, but the highlights are nice. He’s lanky but still leans into people, and his last-ditch challenges seem to result in a block every time.
So what’s the catch? The single quality that Arteta and Co may prize the most in this position — progressive passing — is one of the only bits of “insufficient data” he carries. At United, he plays a very forward-leaning role in attack, and is not the dominant hub of possession like others on this list, but is more likely to receive progressive passes. As a result, his touches in the attacking third trounce the other players in the sample, but his passing quantity and accuracy are lower.
The situation requires some sleuthing. For example, here was his performance in Ligue 1 at Bordeaux, where he often lined up as a high-quantity, possessional LCB.
Wyscout has him passing at 91.2% in Ligue 1 last year. Playing for Malmö in Sweden before that, he showed every kind of pass as a more typical RCB in a back-4. Likewise, his work for Bosnia and Herzegovina shows accurate, voluminous progressive passing in different roles — sometimes with 3 CB’s, sometimes with 2.
Moreover, his touch and technique seem to meaningfully project a player who would be comfortable with a lot of touches, though he can be impatient to move it forward at times.
With the right vision and support, he’s a potential superstar, and one I’d be more than comfortable sliding into the White role as well. There is some risk that is unique attributes don’t ultimately translate, but it feels like one worth taking to me.

Why? He’s got a unique blend of skills, and I’m naturally looking for fundamental advantages over top rivals; Ahmedhodžić’s peak, though not assured, would be almost impossible to replicate by others. The more I saw Timber doing work as a wide, roaming CB on the left and right, and playing against Man City in a sturdy 4-4-2 shape, the more I believed that signing Ahmedhodžić wouldn’t be forcing-in a Billy fave, but a genuine match. He could, of course, slot into the White role and also offer ample RCB cover; but otherwise, the team could potentially start an enormous, athletic backline of Ahmedhodžić/Gabriel/Saliba/White against top sides, go long and dominate set pieces, all while using his carrying ability to unlock all kinds of shit, as we saw with Timber. Fun, fun.

Why not? He may be a little loose with possession, may struggle if/when tucking into the central midfield, and would likely be expensive, as well. After losing many key players, Sheffield United may be hesitant to lose one of their best remaining.

Ousmane Diomandé, Sporting CP (CB)

Here’s what we wrote last time:

Diomandé is enjoying a meteoric rise. This is justified, as he has a rare profile. He’s huge, technical, ambipedal, fast, clever, aggressive, and still only 19. In so many words, he is already a grown-ass man.
He’s had a brief, winding, somewhat confusing development path, with Midtjylland loaning him to Mafra, then transferring him to Sporting CP for €7.50m before ever making his debut in Denmark (and amidst reported interest by Man City and Arsenal).
Coming up, he played plenty of LCB, and started out across the backline for Mafra, including games at LB. He’s settled in at Sporting CP; you’ll remember a solid all-around performance against Arsenal. He followed that up with an 118-pass game against Santa Clara in a 3-0 win, and starts across competitions, mostly in the RCB role in a back three. He was recently 68-of-71 passing against Vitória Guimarães.
It’s very early days, and he still has under 1000 senior minutes under his belt. Despite being spoiled with the likes of Gabriel and Saliba, centre-back is a slow-cooked position that tends to peak around 27. He’s got abundant talent, but he’s still prone to some loose touches and impatience as he feels out the game, and will have to learn the patterns of a back-4.
Just about my only concern here is the third factor we mentioned here, timing: Arsenal need an immediate option, and that may be putting too much on Diomandé, too soon. If the immediate burden can be lifted — either though a true rotation option at RB that allows White to gain meaningful time back at CB again, or otherwise (like a loan) — then I’m all-in on this one.

Why? He slides into this tier for a straightforward reason. He is perhaps the highest-peak profile available. He’s on the rise for a few other reasons: he continued to put good, increasingly assured, play on tape for Sporting CP, and whereas he could be considered pure Saliba depth at RCB (CCB in practical, possessional usage), I went and watched back some of his games at left-back, and found his associations and angles to be promising there, too — he also swung out to right-back in the last one I watched. This is to say he could also coexist with Saliba; he could swing out wide; and could even, potentially, invert. He is complementary to Timber, but wouldn’t double up his profile upon return. His pure-technicality passes with both feet are wild, man, and he oozes dominance.

Why not? He should be very expensive, and the summer has already been costly. Also, he may not lend help in a key area: “inversion depth.” He’s also got some youthy imperfections, as would be expected. His comps look like God’s Perfect Football Prospect, but if you watch entire games, there are lapses in concentration and effort; I just saw a highlight package going around on Twitter where he couldn’t have looked any better, but then I actually cycled through the game and saw he was semi-responsible for both goals his team surrendered. It’s almost like he’s 19-years-old or something!

Iván Fresneda, Valladolid (RB)

Fresneda was our top choice at full-back last time around:

Take everything we wrote about Livramento above, and combine it with the profile of a player who is younger, rawer, less proven, more athletic (or at least close to it with Livramento), and without the injury history. That’s Fresneda.
Playing for a 16th-placed Valladolid that doesn’t dominate possession, Fresneda is regularly challenged on the flank by LaLiga wingers. Broadly speaking, he apprises himself well. He’s balanced, strong, and his bursts of speed help compensate for any momentary misreads: he tackles 70% of would-be challengers. He started to make a real name for himself by zeroing out Vinicius.
I’ve watched a few Valladolid games this year. For two of them, I kept my eye on Fresneda the whole time. There are three areas where he pops the most: work-rate (he’s always running, and fast); basic attention to technique (if you watch small moments, like how he situates himself when blocking a shot, you get the sense of a player who cares about details); and close-control dribbling (which has all the makings of a dynamic, press-resistant force throughout phases of play). He looks comfortable taking up inverted positions and is active off-the-ball, making interior cuts you wouldn’t usually see from a full-back.
Passing-wise, he’s more of a work-in-progress, but it’s not because of how the ball comes off his foot — it’s more about timing. When he gets a little space, he’s pretty excellent at finding targets in the medium-to-long range, pounding in some tidy crosses, and interestingly has a high accuracy when playing the ball into the final third. In short passing, he can be Miles Teller in that Whiplash scene, being asked politely whether he is RUSHING OR DRAGGING OR ON MY FUCKING TIME!!!! He is ambitious in his work, but can take a split-second too long in some cases, and can be too anxious in others.
Progressive passes are defined differently across services. If you’re using Opta (fb-ref) data, which is probably a bit more indicative, Arsenal would be looking for him to roughly double (or even triple) his progressive passes per 90, which isn’t impossible given increased touches and developing talent, but it’s still a big ask. Outside of that, he hasn’t quite learned to establish position against savvier players for aerial duels. In other words, he occasionally looks like a really talented guy who started the season as a 17-year-old … which is exactly what he is.
There’s some wagering here with regard to shared trajectory. Like Kiwior, there’s a chance he falls into the category of being good enough to make the team but not quite polished enough to earn the minutes he needs to develop. What’s nice is that I wouldn’t expect that he’d embarrass himself defensively, but this feeling of being “in-between” may have factored into his decision to stay put in January.
Regardless, he possesses some rare qualities, looks very very close to being Arsenal-ready (if he’s not already), holds a top two-way profile, and screams “Arteta player.”

Why? The price and opportunity is right; he slides in perfectly to the “long-term profile + immediate need” quadrant, and the fees surrounding him look extremely reasonable. Since we last spoke about him, Fresneda bounced around a bit at left-back as well, and I’ve watched a lot more of him. Earlier suspicions are confirmed: his physical baseline is about as high as you could possibly fathom, and he has the effort to match. He is unpolished, getting turned at times, and losing the ball with impatience, but there feels like a clearer place for him now: with White bouncing between RCB/RB, Tomiyasu healthy, others providing more depth as needed, and Timber offering stability in the future. Whereas I’d previously be concerned about him being caught in an “almost” tier, I’m less concerned now. He could earn the right amount of minutes to develop, without the crushing responsibility of an immediate, regular starter. Basically, a Kiwior-quality player who is developing more quickly. Furthermore, the reason to target a full-back is simple: White and Tomiyasu are better than anything you’re going to get on the CB market under 50m.

Why not? A lot of rough edges. There are also questions as to whether this is the right fit for him; he may be best going to Germany or Portugal and starting every game. His desire and work-rate is tremendous.

OK, that’s it for my first tier. Based on price, talent, and availability, there’s a very good chance that Fresneda is the best (and most likely) overall option. Next…

Noussair Mazraoui, Bayern (RB)

There was a short time that Mazraoui looked like he could be on the move this summer. That window may have passed, but even when he looked most locked-in to the Bayern future, here’s what we said last time:

The now-25-year-old full-back had no shortage of suitors after being available on a free transfer from Ajax last summer, and in the months to follow, he did everything to prove why. He’s been pretty much good at All The Things: I have him completing the second-most passes of all full-backs in my sample (after Zinchenko), and the most progressive passes of any non-Arsenal player.
He looks best when inverting, would be natural doing three-back build-up in the first phase, and is an active and intelligent defender (though he doesn’t quite possess centre-back quality physicality like White). He’s also capable of playing on both sides, as he did for Morocco at the World Cup. I’m not overly concerned about his injury record, which leans towards the unfortunate rather than the chronic: lingering effects from getting drilled in the eye with a ball, or from COVID-19. He looked truly special coming on for Pavard late against Barcelona — so smart and technical.

Why? I’m a big fan of the player, and think he suffers from the “aesthetic tax” — his gangly nature and gait can serve to mask some of his athleticism and technicality. When I ask myself the question “Who could do what Benjamin White did last year?,” there are few players I’d trust more with that responsibility than Mazraoui.

Why not? He may be expensive, overlaps with some skills already on offer, and is unlikely to be available.

Group II: The Highly Logical Tier

There are two players whom I’d put in the category of thoughtfully checking boxes, if offering a touch less long-term excitement than the others.

Kyle Walker-Peters

I’d love to say that my opinion didn’t get updated based on a single performance, but that wouldn’t be the whole truth. Watching KWP in the opener against Sheffield Wednesday, inverting into the midfield in new manager Russell Martin’s updated look, one couldn’t escape the following conclusion: it’s a little fucked up, and borderline cruel and unusual, to have this guy playing in the Championship. He had 153 total actions, including going 113/124 passing. It looked like a pro-am:

He found a happy place in this little area, moving defenders around with feints and ball manipulations, and using a variety of passes into the box:

I’d previously admired him as a player, but found him to be a little bit too traditional of a full-back for the Arsenal shape, bombing and carrying; that view is evolving. If a season-long thing could work, and he’s OK as a depth/roleplaying guy, it’s a tempting proposition for a player this skilled, invertible, smart, talented, versatile, and proven on both flanks.

On an actual transfer-and-contract deal, I’d retain concerns about his long-term fit over multiple years.

Benjamin Henrichs (RB Leipzig)

I’m not sure there is a player who makes so much pragmatic sense for the current situation as Henrichs. He may be a bit too pragmatic.

He was an every-week starter in the Bundesliga eight years ago alongside a young starlet by the name of Kai Havertz. He’s still only 26. His signing would be a bit of a “Trossard of the deep” move: finding a capable, versatile, skilled player, who can fulfill immediate needs and then slot in flexible ways for the future. He’s developed everywhere, first as an attacker, then a full-back, then a midfielder, then as a full-back again. Here’s his career heatmap:

His strength may be his weakness: he’s solid at pretty much everything, but doesn’t regularly “pop” as a pure talent, as annoying as that is to say. Here’s an exception:

As a general rule, I stay away from role players and seat-fillers at this stage of the project; everybody should be a difference-maker or a youth product. I think Henrichs is a smidge above the “role player” category, but understand if others would pause and look for something more ambitious with squad spots at a premium.

He’s just a good player, and a price would seemingly be commensurate with his profile. His transfermarkt is at €15m.

Group III: Clone Benjamin White

There is a group of hybrids who are worth looking at. As pure players, they should probably be higher, but the problem is that they’re expensive, and not all of them are functionally additive in a long-term future with White, Timber, and others.

Let’s dive in.

Lutsharel Geertruida, Feyenoord (RB/CB)

I mentioned that Mazraoui could fulfill the responsibilities of the White role last year, but I’m not so sure there’s a player in the world who temperamentally reminds me so much of White as Geertruida. Like White, he’s fast enough, strong enough, tall enough, and plenty technical — but what really separates him is just an inherent solidness, intelligence, and craftiness to his craft. At 23, Geertruida plays like a 29-year-old.

White is still a more advanced profile who is proven at higher levels, but the Eredivisie winner looks more comfortable as a midfield inverter, which is why I think he deserves a genuine look. I see 936 minutes played as a true midfielder, and just watched some of his tape as a #6 against AZ last year, and liked everything I saw. He’d primarily be a RB in the Premier League, but is genuine CB depth. I’ve been studying him since last summer and haven’t found anything not to like; consider him another #BillyFave, though one who isn’t cheap, and may have too much overlap with White/Timber.

That said, he offers modularity: I’m not saying it’d be a first option, but you could start a Timber/Saliba/White/Geertruida back-four, for example, and either full-back could be capable of staying back as a CB or pushing forward as a pivot or overlapper. I can see him working into future plans; he’d be my choice from this group.

8. Mohamed Simakan, RB Leipzig (RB/CB)

In a vacuum, I like him so much. He’s at an excellent stage in his development, is pretty polished, and offers an intriguing template of a modern defender. Here’s what I’ve written previously:

Immediate pace (good for high-lining), very strong and balanced, good dribbler, aggressive, and genuinely profiles well at both RCB and RB -- though probably slightly better at RB for us; he looks a little better the wider and more 1v1 he is, IMO. Strong in progression and good in the air, can be a duel monster and a bully. Tall but not Saliba tall, I think 6-2. Haven't been blown away by his full passing range but haven't seen cause for concern either. Few crosses where he plays now. I've seen him be a little bit overaggressive at times with lunges.

That said, he should be expensive, and may be an awkward fit in a future with Timber, White, and Saliba; they all hold a trump card on him for one reason or another, while his only one may be his ability to patrol the wing against a top winger.

If he could invert, or Timber wasn’t signed, I’d feel a little stronger in his direction.

Benjamin Pavard, Bayern (CB/RB)

(As I hit publish, I saw some reports that Pavard may stay at Bayern. Not sure how true that is, but here’s what I think in any case…)

Much of what I said about Simakan is also true of Pavard, though they offer different skillsets. Pavard is a nice athlete who looks every bit the part of an Arsenal-style passer. In-possession, you could hardly hope for any better out of a target here. But like Simakan, he’s a great player with a pricetag to match, and a somewhat strained long-term fit to the Arsenal squad right now. Most reports suggest that he’d like to be a CB, and he’s a good one. Would he be content to be Saliba cover? I’m not so sure.

Group IV: Monitor market opportunities

Here are the first players who come to mind as potential market opportunities:

Arnau Martinez, Girona (RB): Martinez is a roughly similar level prospect to Fresneda in LaLiga, and is a better player as of today. He’s started 81-of-82 games across levels for Girona as a 20-year-old, and already plays the part of a steady hand despite his age. That isn’t to say he’s not talented, as some of his little feints and close dribbles are fun and effective, but he doesn’t have near the physical peak of a Fresneda. He’s been fully inverting into the midfield more as time goes on, and looks good doing it — while matching this with his previous experience as a CB. He may be the clubhouse leader of how a modern FB can be developed; if he had more burst, he may be top of my list.
Sacha Boey, Galatasaray (RB): Here’s what I wrote last time: “Lovely player who at 22 is already one of the most complete full-backs in the world outside of the Top 5, and has been one of the best players at any position in the Süper Lig this year. Fast, tireless, smart, and a duel monster: I have him winning at the highest rate of my sample (58.5%), and doing excellent work in the air. He seems to be happiest near the touchline for now, so would still need some adaptation time, but I’ve seen a lot of good undercuts/overlaps at the winger level at Galatasaray, and they settle into similar mid-block shapes as Arsenal.” He’s still working out some kinks in his passing/crossing game.
Ridle Baku, Wolfsburg: From last time: “He came up through Mainz 05 as jack-of-all-trades player, playing mostly in the midfield but occasionally on the wings and as an attacker. Since joining Wolfsburg, he played in different attacking positions on the right before settling in as a dynamic right-back. His development hasn’t been a straight line, but he’s been durable (something like 100 straight appearances) and has been a total beast this year under new coach Niko Kovač, helping usher in a new period of form that has them seventh in the table. He’s comfortable cutting in, and has played both as an overlapper and with an overlapper (as an inverted winger). I still have a little lack of clarity about his defending, but I’m interested in finding out more.”

Group V: Wildcards

I don’t consider these players part of any ranking system; they’re either big brain stuff, or players with questions we’re not fully capable of answering. Let ‘er rip, Billy.

Teun Koopmeiners, Atalanta: This would be an ambitious, likely pretty expensive, and outside-of-the-box move to solidify two key Arsenal needs with limited squad space. With a pretty blistering 14 G+A campaign last year as one of the best players in Serie A, Koopmeiners is fully in line with the recent Arsenal lunge towards technical, positionless players. Here’s what we wrote last time: “He just turned 25 and is technical, press-resistant, experienced in being a hub of possession, extraordinarily positionally aware, and has every pass in his bag. The Atalanta style of play means he does a lot of long passes and switches, but he’s comfortable in more grounded build-up. He could play as an advanced 10, picking out smart passes like SMS in the Xhaka channel, but his career heatmap looks like Zinchenko’s — he’s comfortable building play from deep, and even played plenty as a central defender back in the day. Dead ball specialist, to boot.” What’s special is his ability to serve as primary Ødegaard/Havertz rotation, a second-phase 8, and Zinchenko rotation. If he can rotate with the latter, Tomiyasu can be preserved for pure right-sided rotation, and Walters can be just used if backup is needed. The “bear” case is that the role may feel too ancillary for his quality, and he may lack sufficient athleticism to track runners down the wing, Billy’s suggestions be damned.

João Cancelo, Man City: You have questions, I have questions. But to borrow from my treatise about mentality — “any discussion of their mentality must begin with an admission of how little you know. And even then, it may still be subject to certain shortcuts and personal biases.” We have a limited purview into the situation. We have a better view of how he performs on the pitch, and I think it’s easy to forget just how absolutely electric Cancelo is with the ball; he does things that maybe only 20 guys going can do, at any position. Don’t trust fb-ref for its own sake, but this is what a disappointing year looks like for him. Furthermore, he’s one of the rare full-backs worthy of a galaxy-brain: he has genuine winger quality, and may find a second career arc in the middle of the pitch. I also don’t think his out-of-possession work is a rough as it often seems; ever notice how every inverter other than Stones and Timber gets “exposed”? The ask is so hard. On the culture side, his presence may very well be detrimental to a team; I’m simply saying I don’t know that to be true, personally, and I don’t consider him off-the-table because of scattered reports in the press. As a pure player, especially on a loan-to-buy type thing, he’s thrilling.

Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Fenerbahçe (LB/RB): Last time: “Unquestionably the most fun player to research here, as you may have seen in the Europa. A converted attacking midfielder and winger, Kadioglu is an energetic madman in the Süper Lig, flashing genuinely special dribbling ability, positional fluidity, and work-rate. He winds inside and creates opportunities at will. Those aren’t his only tricks, as he’s also been a secure and dynamic passer, and can play both right-back and left-back with pretty much equal skill (he’s made the same amount of appearances at each this year), and covers other spots for Turkey as well — in terms of raw, non-league-adjusted attacking stats, he and Grimaldo are a cut above the rest. I don’t love tidy comparisons, but to address what you’re thinking: yes, he is budget Cancelo. Like Cancelo, he is an active if occasionally messy defender, and he may flame out in a top side … or be a superstar. If you dream of starting Two Zinchenkos, and depth-cover him with a Holding replacement who can play right-back (somebody like Lutsharel Geertruida), he would be a devilishly entertaining hype-man off the bench for a top side. Here’s a comp.”

Jeremie Frimpong, Leverkusen (RB): At present, Frimpong can make a case for being the best player on this whole list, so there’s all the reason you need. He doesn’t fully fit into a previous version of the system (with one full-back who is a bit of a wide-CB, and one who is an inverted midfielder), but as we’ve learned, there are new permutations. Frimpong and Saka on a wing together would require an ambulance, but not for us, and Frimpong, like Cancelo, is one of the rare full-backs who can disrupt the “wing-backs are just failed wingers” mantra; he has genuine winger speed, quality, and carrying ability.

Marc Cucurella, Chelsea (LCB/LB): I’m sorry, I’m sorry, I’m trying to delete it, I’m sorry. Perhaps my “I can fix it” inclinations are similar to Arteta’s, but as a general rule: when a player consistently displays A Thing across multiple years, then enters a toxic situation and suddenly stops displaying That Thing, I will question whether the variable caused the variance. The previous, Brighton version of Cucurella would have looked incredible doing what Timber did against Forest.

Other notes:

I like Marc Guéhi plenty as a player, and would happily push him on any number of clubs, but after the Timber investment, I have trouble seeing how he can prove out his likely-considerable price tag on this Arsenal side — he’d still be behind Saliba and Gabriel for me, jump Kiwior in the order, and I don’t see him swinging out to full-back much. If Gabriel moved on for whatever reason, he’d be near the top of the list for me — on top of all his skill, he’s a lovely human being, and a future manager type.
I’d be perfectly fine with Timothy Castagne on a one-year thing, so long as squad size is figured out elsewhere. Anything past that, and I’m probably out. I covered him here.
Two others who I like plenty: Oumar Solet (RB Salzburg) and Pierre Kalulu (AC Milan). In fact, I’m wondering why I didn’t include Kalulu more. I guess that’s from uncertainty: I’ve watched him plenty, but should study him more. Oh well.
I started to develop a few concerns about Le Normand’s ability to hold a high line, which is why he’s appeared higher in the past than now.
I’d also have to re-look into Jean-Clair Todibo’s work out wide a bit more to understand whether he offers backline flexibility or not.
My #1 prospect (Valentín Barco) seems to be off to Brighton, of course; perhaps my #2, Milos Kerkez, is now on AFC Bournemouth. Others I like, in no particular order: Amar Dedić, Bjorn Meijer, Agustín Giay, Yukinari Sugawara, Tom Rothe, Quentin Merlin, and Luca Netz.
I think Lino Sousa is talented enough to factor in a bit this year, as well, though probably in a limited capacity.
Could I talk myself into Trevoh Chalobah? I don’t know, probably.
This is all an incomplete list, as you’ll remind me, and I would encourage you to read the previous pieces for more. In any case, I haven’t watched everybody.

TL;DR

Above all, I think some move is likely necessary, and think the market is reasonably flush with achievable, attractive options, many of which I’ve failed to mention.

Ideally, they will fit into one of two categories: (a) accelerated, high-potential, long-term bets or (b) hyper-focused short-term options. The danger exists in the in-between, when you pay a considerable amount for a player who solves a short-term problem, but only marginally aligns with the sustainable vision of the club, and nonetheless clogs up squad space. I trust we’ll avoid that. If we can’t, go with Walters.

Timber’s loss still stings. With Man City having an uneven transfer window thus far, there’s blood in the water, and Arsenal should pounce. If you nail a trajectory signing, and add it to Timber’s return next year, there’s a lot to look forward to — both now, and in the future.

I hope this e-mail finds you well.

Happy grilling.

🔥