Anatomy of a missed chance

Looking at Jesus and co's missed chances to see what's due to luck, what's due to finishing quality, what's due to getting suplexed in the box, and what can improve from here

When Gabriel Jesus was asked how the team was feeling after Sunday’s draw at Southampton, he called his own number.

“Everyone was a little bit upset because we know we could win the game. We created a lot but we were not finishing good. I put me in that of course. I could have scored one or two — and then we win.”

When asked about the reasons behind his recent goal drought, he had this to say:

“I don’t know, I really don’t know. If I know I can tell you! But the only thing I can do is keep trying, keep fighting, keep improving. Like I said, I am here to score goals, I am here to help the team with the goals. I understand that. Of course, the goals are coming back soon.”

After an initial run of form that saw 28 goals in 11 matches, it’s fair to say things have slowed down for Arsenal a bit.

In the last four contests, Arsenal players have ripped 50 total shots. Of those, 17 have been on target (34% — which would put them about 12th in the league). Those shots have resulted in one goal per match, and that finishing ratio — 0.08 goals per shot—would put them below, say, Leeds in the table.

This was especially acute in the PSV match, in which 23 shots and dominant possession resulted in only one goal.

Arsenal vs. PSV shot map

The story continued into the first half at Southampton.

Questions abound. How much of this is simple variance? How much is a genuine dip in finishing quality, and if so, what can be improved? How much is opposing defenders being allowed to go WWE with impunity?

Most importantly: if Gabriel Jesus, one of the world’s best players, can’t explain why the goals haven’t come, isn’t it safe to assume that some idiot in his basement won’t be able to, either?

Fair point, voice in my head. But that’s never stopped us before. 

Let’s dive in.

How much of a concern are the missed chances, really?

As I hinted in the intro, it’s very easy to pump the brakes on this whole thing. It’s a sport that ebbs and flows in terms of luck and variance, and Arsenal may just be in one of those periods where it’s ebbing rather than flowing. 

There’s support in the data. In terms of overall shots on target, they’re still tied for second in the league at 37.1% — which puts them exactly level with Manchester City.

Using Statbomb’s version of xG, Arsenal have overperformed their expectation across competitions, banging in 31 total goals compared to an xG of 27.2. This can point to a number of factors, among them: above-average finishing quality, luck, bad goalkeeping, etc. 

But xG is like any football metric: useful but not all-encompassing. What context should we add here?

First, I’d posit that xG may not paint the full picture of Arsenal’s particular brand of performance in certain ways. This is because it’s a shot-based metric: it does not judge a team’s overall attacking threat, but rather the likelihood of the shots they do take going in. 

An extreme way of looking at this is if a player has created a chance where he is safely dribbling towards an empty net, then trips on his shoelace and falls on his ass without getting a shot off, that’s an xG of 0.0.

In Arsenal’s case, let’s use an example in the first half at Southampton to describe what I’m talking about.

Bukayo Saka was doing one of his unplayable cross-zonal runs, and left his defender in the dust. Man, he looks good. There are ancillary defenders, but Arsenal basically has Southampton in a 2v1, with Jesus as an open cutter in the box…

…and instead of picking out the pass, Saka slows down a bit, dribbles into traffic, and then tries to fire a shot off. Blocked. 

We’ll get into more of this later, but Arsenal fans may find the above opportunity familiar: a cocktail of unbelievable chance creation paired with occasional hesitancy or inconsistency in the final action. 

Because the final shot was from distance and in a crowded box, the resulting xG of this chance was “<.01”. It’s probably fair to say that Arsenal should be converting such an opportunity into a goal at a rate greater than 1%.

The second bit of context is that performance relative to xG has been dipping in the last few weeks; also, as it accumulates on a player-by-player basis, the season is young enough for outliers: Xhaka is at +1.8 goals over expectation, Saliba has two goals on two shots on target, Vieira and Partey have those bangers, Holdini is 1 for 1, etc. 

The record of the more likely scorers is a little bit more fulsome, a little bit more mixed, and will be our focus for the day. As we’ll see, Martinelli, Saka, and Ødegaard have met or exceeded overall expectations (per xG), but have room to grow. On the other side, the two strikers (Jesus and Nketiah) have left some goals on the pitch. Let’s examine how. 

No whining on the yacht

We’re going to talk about ways he can do better, but we must first acknowledge the obvious: Gabriel Jesus has been one of the best players in the world, and absolutely transformative to the team that sits atop the Premier League. 

His dribbling skill, work rate, intensity, leadership, flexibility, and savvy have been contagious to a young club. Almost everybody has found a new gear, and the reason we’re even talking about missed chances is largely because of the chances he regularly creates out of thin air. 

Your honor, I enter the following fb-ref table into evidence:

If you take the fifth letter of every third word in this chart, and read it backwards twice in the mirror, it spells “relax.”

Prettaay, prettaaaaaay, good.

A lot has been made about his performance relative to xG at City, but while those claims carry truth, there are levels to the assertion. When looking at all competitions, he had -5.4 goals below xG in a total of 5 seasons, or about a goal a year. We’ll dive into why in a second.

Last year in the Champions League, he had 4 goals on 9 total shots. (As I was finishing up writing this, I was googling and found this piece by Scott over at CrabStats from April, diving into his performances at City. Good read.)

This year, the claims are worthy of checking out more.

Is Jesus struggling?

Jesus came out of the gates hot — with 7 goals in 5 friendly games, then 8 G+A in his first 10 games from there. 

Since then, his production has cooled down considerably, with 0 G+A in his last four. This may or may not coincide with the dings he weathered against Liverpool.

He’s second the Premier League in big chances missed, with 8. (Incredibly, he’s behind only the 9 missed big chances of Patrick Bamford, who has played limited minutes and hasn’t scored yet). Jesus’ number itself isn’t too surprising, as good players often generate and miss chances. Fellow members of the top 10 include Haaland, Toney, Mitrovic, and Salah. 

That said, in league play, he’s currently at -1.9 Shooting Goals Added (SGA), which is the difference between xGOT (expected goals on target) and xG. Per The Analyst:

A player whose xGOT is exceeding their xG is executing better quality shots than the quality of the chances he has attempted shots from … while it still useful context to understand, shooting goals added is rather a measure of on-target execution than purely being indicative of a player’s finishing ability.

Below is a look at his shot selection over the entire calendar year. You’ll notice a couple things: no goals outside the box (even though he’s got some real power there, to be fair), and strong clusters close to the net. Jesus routinely takes among the closest shots in the league.

This shot selection makes analytical sense, and helps explain why his xG is so high. Close shots = high xG. Globally, a big change in the game has been how teams trade out more frequent, longer shots for fewer, higher-quality chances. (“You see, the thing about Arsenal is…”)

As you’ll see below, that’s the best chance at goal:

Caveat: this is an older graphic.

And here’s a look at Jesus’ shot locations over the last year-plus, across competitions. You’ll notice the number of low-percentage chances fired directly, and lowly, into the middle of the net. Conversely, you’ll see how many of his goals are in the corners (as is usually the case).

Looking back at his goals on the year, there was the memorable, beautiful chip against Leicester. Other than that, the goals have come via poaching: two headers, two rebounds. 

A quick recap:

• Tottenham — Rebound from Saka shot (left foot)

• Brentford — Header from Xhaka cross (head)

• Villa — Rebound from Xhaka cross (left foot)

• Leicester — 1–2 on the left, ending in a surprise chip (right foot)

• Leicester — back-post header on a corner (head)

Is he struggling to create chances? Fuck no. Is he struggling to finish them at a high level so far? Eh, probably. 

A look at what can be improved

So what can Jesus, and the Arsenal team writ large, do to improve their finishing quality? 

Here are three possible ways, suggested by somebody who has no business telling them what to do.

🍗 1. Generating momentum for the shot

A quintessential Jesus opportunity came at the 51st minute against PSV. We’ll be focusing on finishing, but this chance simply never happens without him up front.

After disrupting play, Holding steps up into open space and fires in a threaded pass to Jesus (who is onside, as there’s a CB still back)…

…Jesus gets it near the wing, and holds up play until he is joined by his friends. He plays a 1–2 with Saka and sprints off into the box…

…and here’s the critical moment, and the one I want to focus on the most. After some characteristically beautiful, rugged tight-space dribbling, he loads up a shot — but is unable to generate power, and fires it right at the keeper. 

Look at the screenshot above, and let's get ahead of our own (intellectual) skis together. As he winds up to shoot with his left—which is his off foot but nonetheless one he’s plenty comfortable with—pay particular attention to where the ball is relative to his plant foot. 

Now, in the mirror image, compare it to a free kick by James Ward-Prowse:

Call it the Curse of the World Class Tight-Space Dribbler. Because the ball is absolutely glued to Jesus’ foot, and he excels in dribbling in traffic, he is usually directly on top of the ball — shielding it with his body. 

That makes him the special player he is, and leaning over the ball is fine, but if your body is faster than the ball, it’s also a difficult position from which to start generating power+touch with either foot, because the ball often drags a little behind where JWP neatly has it above. (Somehow, Jesus often generates power anyway.) For a visual, imagine taking a penalty by standing a foot ahead of the ball.

The other elite dribbler on the team (Martinelli) can sometimes be seen shooting from similar body positions; there are shades of the ever-dribbly young Ronaldo in the 04–06 era right before the goal avalanche came. 

The ways to improve here? I’ll offer three, all of which are easier said than done: 

• Find the exact right moment for the ball to trickle forward another six inches, get it nearer to the plant foot, and shoot. This increases the power and control of the shot, the likelihood of a goal, and the likelihood of being dispossessed in equal measure (but that’s fine).

• If that’s not possible, then unlock your inner B-Spec Messi, because it’s all about placement and creativity. Chips, flicks, and passes into the corners of the net are all likely preferable to ill-attempted power right at the keeper. In the words of Thierry Henry’s criticisms of Rashford, which may be a haiku: “Place it, why hard? Side foot, goal. See you later.”

• Finally, in Jesus’ case, consider shooting at an earlier step in the process. This is counter to a standard recommendation these days, but he’s already on the extreme end, and it’s hard to watch his shots in front of the keeper’s lap without thinking he might benefit from a little more room and angle.

🍗 2. One-touching like Xhaka

(I don’t have any stats to back this one up, so welcome to the arbitrary #TakeZone.)

Comparing Arsenal to Manchester City, it sure feels like one of the biggest differences is the degree to which City’s players are willing to let it ride on their first touch, whereas Arsenal’s players are more likely to want to gather and control it first.

Here’s an example.

Martinelli crosses it into the box, and Arsenal has numbers. It’s 4 on 3…

…but in the critical moment, Eddie doesn’t have his body in position to shoot, and gathers the ball instead…

…by the time he gets the shot off, two defenders had completely closed down, and he probably would have been better off dinking it to Marquinhos. Instead, it’s blocked.

A one-touch there is a clincher.

This is an area which Odegaard has been making improvements, even though the goals haven’t come of late.

As a starting point, here’s an example from the first match of the year against Palace. 

Odegaard receives a pass from Jesus and is wide open against a stretched defense. Instead of shooting, he gathers, slows down, and tries to pass it to a not-open-at-all Martinelli.

He passed this 😬

Fast-forward to this weekend. Against Southampton, he was offered two similar chances — and shot them both. 

One went slowly and narrowly wide…

…and the other went in the back of the net, but was called back because Tierney was marginally out-of-bounds on the cross.

Vieira also netted one this way on a ridiculous Jesus dribble in the first Bodø game.

But one need not look far for a shining example. Always ask oneself: What Would Xhaka Do?

🍗 3. Watching out for overdribbles

Arsenal features some of the best dribblers in the world, and their skill opens up so many opportunities for the team. In the final moments, though, they can hold the ball for a fraction of a second too long, rather than queueing up the quicker, more decisive action. 

As with the Saka example that we started with, this is something that can pop up a couple times a game. While aggression should be preferred over passivity in general, there can sometimes be better, earlier options with the final move.

Here’s an example.

In one of his best dribbles in a season filled with them, Martinelli busts out of the wing and somehow gets out of this jam, because of course he does…

…however, he keeps rolling and rolling, although he had a couple options in play: Jesus had stayed onside for a bit for a throughball; Odegaard was open earlier up the middle; and Saka is all alone on the wing.

Instead, he takes a shot into a wall — which is blocked.

Once you’ve dribbled yourself out of trouble, it’s important not to dribble yourself back into it. 

I’d consider this one minor, though, and if someone asked what I’d like to change about the dribbling of Martinelli and Jesus, my default answer would probably be “not a damn thing.”

OK, let’s bring this thing home.

Some random other points that didn’t make the piece above:

• Shot diversity: “Standard” shots haven’t resulted in many goals of late. Instead, as we’ve covered, the goals have largely come from one-touch crosses (Xhaka), Saka heroics (once off the roof of the net, once off his face), and shots in transition. Going through the tape, there are a lot of hard shots right at the keeper that are easily saved. Returning to more unpredictability — like Jesus’ pick-shot against Leicester—should return better results.

• Don’t look at the keeper: This may be leftover nonsense from a halcyon time, but I remember hearing that in the fraction of a second a player looks up before shooting, they’ll of course be spotting the keeper—who is drawing attention with their bright colors—and subconsciously, the body will consider that the target and aim at the thing that was just identified. It’s better to override that impulse and keep your eyes on the target instead: likely the corner of the net. So many recent shots have been directly up the middle, which are more likely to be saved and less likely to result in rebounds.

• Corners: Arsenal haven’t scored from a corner in a while, and this is the area that I have the most confidence is down to simple variance. The delivery has been good. Jover is still Jover. They just haven’t found the net of late. They will.

• There were other good chances here that I choose not to discuss because they weren’t indicative: mis-hits, great defensive plays, good saves. That’s the game.

🔥 In conclusion 🔥

I hope none of this sounds too negative. Not only are these great players on a hugely successful run, but looking back, there were numerous chances in the last two matches (particularly by Saka and Jesus) that were well-considered, well-struck, and … saved. 

There were also direct chances that were suplexed in the box, or possible counters that were suplexed upfield. 

Would I be writing this article if the following foul was called? Perhaps not.

In all, I would chalk most of this up to simple variance: solid keepers, a more packed schedule, and certain things not going Arsenal’s way (like the reffing in the above). 

In any case, with some improvements on the fringes—some technique changes on short shots, more one-hit bangers, and continuing to feel out the narrow difference between dribbling and overdribbling—I believe an increase in goals will come, variance be damned. 

I didn’t need a reminder, but looking through all the tape from his year while writing this, I’m properly reacquainted with the electricity of one Gabriel Jesus. Get ready for some phone calls.

In the meantime, may you experience the joy of a Xhaka redemption arc in your own life, if necessary; if not, may you believe in the eventual redemption arc of someone you currently doubt.

Be good out there. And happy grilling everybody.

🔥

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