Timber!

Where the Dutch defender shines, where he's still a work-in-progress, and what makes him such a unique fit for Arsenal

Jun 22, 2023

As always, I like to confess my priors upfront.

When I saw the initial #OrnBomb that the club was working to sign Ajax defender Jurriën Timber, I sat in the parking lot, maniacally scrolling, a trio of thoughts pulsing through my cranium:

“Wait, what? Holy fuck. How is he in our budget?”
“Timber is a dream profile.”
“He was a bit uneven when I saw him this year for Ajax, though. I should go check that out.”

But mostly, #1 and #2.

Indeed, when I pull lists of potential targets, I have to draw the budget line somewhere — or else you’ll be reading my #analysis on the potential fits of Vinicius and Pedri at Arsenal. (I don’t care what anybody says — I think they’re pretty good).

In this case, RCB/RB was expected to be in a lower tier than the big midfield splurge, and as such, I didn’t do much writing on players with a Transfermarkt valuation of €35 million or greater, unless they were explicitly linked.

As of this writing, Timber’s is €42 million — putting him on par with the likes of Nathan Aké and John Stones, and making him the highest-valued player in the Eredivisie (and 113th in the world).

I guess I should adjust my expectations.

Timber? In this economy?

After a fairly linear and highly-promising start to his career, the 2021-22 campaign was a dream for Timber. Winning the Eredivisie Player of the Year, he bossed many of his performances in the Champions League, forming a Short King partnership with Lisandro Martínez that conceded only 19 in-league goals all year — helping pave the way for a 36th title.

Timber had already long been on the radars of top-5 clubs, and was apparently Erik Ten Hag’s priority call over Martínez, interestingly, which leads to a whole Zinchenko Butterfly Effect situation. Still only 21 when the season started, he ultimately opted to sign an extension and stay put for another year. This seemed prudent.

There’s no whining on the yacht, but sometimes it’s tough to be Ajax. In one year, you lose your manager, Licha, Ryan Gravenberch, Antony (watch it), Noussair Mazraoui, André Onana (who also had that doping thing), Daley Blind (in January) … plus Schuurs, Tagliafico, I can keep going, 21 departures in all … and the full expectation is just to regroup, mush a bunch of new pieces together, and win the league again. It only looks hard now because they’ve made it look so easy in the past.

Meanwhile, Timber’s underlying stats, particularly on the passing and carrying side, have been astounding. When I tried to create a napkin stat that would judge a player’s “Saliba-ness” in possession, four players stood ahead of the others: Josip Šutalo, Lutsharel Geertruida, Edmond Tapsoba, annnd…. Timberrrrr.

But despite all that, Timber has had a more complicated year than he may have expected going in — and, indeed, more mixed performances than the stats may suggest. This was typified by the disappointing and brief managerial reign of Alfred Schreuder, who ultimately helped guide a third-place Eredivisie campaign that saw the perennial champions miss out on Champions League qualification.

Which brings us to today. I felt a solid amount of familiarity with his overall game, but wanted to try to get a representative body of work, and understand some of the “meh-ness” that I noticed at times earlier this year, and see if it was cause for concern. So in the interest of showing work: over the last couple nights, I speed-ran matches against Benfica, FC Twente, Vitesse, NEC Nijmegen, AZ, Sporting CP, and Napoli — as well as World Cup matchups against the USA and Argentina.

This covers some of his work as a two-back CB, a three-back CB, and a RB. I also watched some clips from his (rare) time as a defensive midfielder, and a bunch of other clips overall.

Let’s get into what I saw.

In possession

We are now several weeks into focusing these pieces on “triple modular redundancy,” and how to achieve maximum optionality across the pitch. Arteta and Edu saw the weaknesses of last year’s team and are accepting no half-measures. Whenever you feel a slight lack of clarity about where a signing will slot in, remember: that’s the point.

Timber, of course, offers flexibility. At all levels (going back to his Ajax II days), I track 14,996 minutes at CB, 2,096 at RB, 159 as a defensive midfielder, and 512 at LB. The enormous bulk his high-profile senior career, however, has been at CB — including every appearance this year.

Let’s dive into some of his specific skills.

👉 Passing

Hey you. Look at this:

I’m not very smart with numbers. Is that good?

His passing game deserves a nuanced discussion, but the first thing to know about Timber, by far, is the fucking wild level of press-resistance. He is already a finished article here, and would look fully in league with Arsenal’s best. If he’s got more trajectory to unlock, he’ll place himself in rarefied air.

Some stats I pulled from fb-ref to help prove that case:

He had the most touches in the league (3050)
He completed the most short and medium passes in the league (1014 and 1343, respectively)
He had the highest passing % in the league (91.6%)
He passed in the medium-length at 95.3% (!)
He had the most carries in the league (2121) and for the longest distance (11,689 yards)
He was dispossessed a total of 19 times in 3,029 minutes

This press-resistance proves itself every week in the Eredivisie. And before you ask, his underlying numbers improve in the Champions and Europa.

Let’s see how his numbers compare to some other options, both internal and external.

Of all the players I’ve checked out this year at every position, there are four that stand apart as the most “Arsenally” of passers: Šutalo, Zubimendi, Caicedo, and Timber. Šutalo is, indeed, a Budget Saliba: using feints, carries, body-shape twists, and all number of tricks to safely possess the ball until there’s an opportunity for a line-breaker. His in-possession style is spookily similar at times.

Timber, on the other hand, may have more in common with the midfielders (Zubimendi and Caicedo). In fact, as a passer, he often reminds me of what Caicedo would look like if he was facing the opponent goal more often in early build-up. There’s a la pausa temperament that just seems similar: full composure, unbothered confidence, endless scanning, correct decisions, and short, crisp passes. If other transfer targets are dying for a coach like Arteta to help take them to the next step, Timber has been well-served in this regard, this year notwithstanding. He has fully reaped the rewards of the Ajax Academy.

Here was his passing map in the 4-0 win against Rangers in the Champions League. He went 127/133 passing:

Everything always seems to be played at the exact tempo of his choice:

To say he’s a perfect passer is a little simplistic, however. Despite his remarkably press-resistant ways, he may not have quite enough of a risk tolerance to break the lines at sufficient volume, and I didn’t see him disguising his hips to open up lanes quite at the levels of a Saliba or Šutalo. This still leads to progression at Ajax, as his sheer volume undoubtedly will, but perhaps not at the speed and directness of previous years (with Licha, more Blind, etc). It may lead to moments of slowness in the Premier League.

Despite leading the league in nearly every important passing metric, he was 81st in long passing (126/196 - 64.3%). There is not an enormous variety of options on offer, as he likes keeping it on the ground: fb-ref credits him with 1 switch of play, 4 crosses, and 4 through-balls on the year. It should be said that numbers for through-balls and crosses are typically low for CB’s, but it shows a bit of his intention. It doesn’t seem beyond his capabilities to play it long, but it also doesn’t seem like he’s aching to do it.

But things don’t tend to get stuck because of him. That’s for the next reason.

👉 Carrying

As a ball-carrier, he also has elite potential, and much of it is already realized.

You are reading that right: 63 carries per 90.

For some of his safety and comfort in the passing game, he is a bold and adventurous dribbler who nonetheless doesn’t often get caught out. Because Edson Álvarez regularly drops back to guard the backline, and because Ten Hag’s system was built for constant rotations, Timber has largely been able to carry at will. For all the consternation about Rob Holding’s ability to play out the back or hold the high line, it was perhaps Saliba’s carry-to-provoke abilities that went underappreciated as a reason for our late-season demise.

Timber has three top-level tricks in his bag.

The first is a muscular, bursty, low-gravity dribble through traffic. Like Saliba, he always does this with intention. Look at the before-and-after of the below gif:

At the start, Gravenberch had three players around. At the end, five seconds later, Timber had taken four (4!) players out of the play, and Gravenberch had a clear path forward.

The second move in his arsenal (ahem) is a simple one. These unflustered, subtle dekes seem to work every time:

And finally, his turns. I just watched back this Napoli game — (side note, this was a fun reminder that early-season Napoli gotta be one of the baddest sides imaginable, apart from us, of course) — and this spin on Zambo Anguissa almost made me stand out of my chair:

Nothing aberrational about these moves, either. He does little things like this every single game, and never seems particularly impressed with himself.

Playing in back-three for Oranje, Timber’s ball-playing allowed him to unseat Matthijs de Ligt for most of the World Cup. He played alongside VVD and Nathan Aké in a fairly fluid backline, and his ball skills showed up in spades. (There’s more measured discussion to be had about some of his fouling, etc, but we’ll get to that in a bit).

That said, in touchline-fullback positions, with fewer angles available to him, he’s looked less comfortable — perhaps yearning for the full stockpile of dribbles and passes to be at his beck and call.

👉 Availability

Not much to say here. He’s got a great record on this front:

👉 Defending

Timber is an anticipatory, communicative, direct, aggressive defender — roaming around the pitch freely, occasionally calling to mind a Puyol — but is not without his warts as a newly-minted 22-year-old.

It’s mostly quite positive. Here are some of his stats, according to Wyscout:

The underlying numbers look fairly ideal for a CB in a max-possession side, where we shouldn’t expect high counting stats:

To my eyes, he seems best when the assignment is clear, direct, and even difficult — which shows up in such a high dueling percentage. I’ve seen him face down the likes of Haaland, Núñez, Alvarez, Messi, etc — and he has little moments, but never looked too overmatched. He did a good job of containing Alvarez at the World Cup, which puts him in rare company.

As the 120-minute affair wore on, he looked a little leggy while carrying a yellow, and had numerous tired (and/or tactical) fouls that could have seen him sent off. As we saw in the comparison graphic, he fouls more than any other defender in the sample — and with the likelihood of him getting beat a little more in the Premier League, one worries about the fouls piling up.

He is not a low-key psycho physical beast like Licha, but not a pushover either. When an attacker like Brendan Aaronson doesn’t have a physical advantage to exploit, Timber becomes the bully — using his stocky frame to muscle players off the ball:

Otherwise, he looks fairly purpose-built for high-line defending. He’s good at assessing situations and stepping up, is comfortable high, has the speed to track speedy wingers and strikers, and the overall awareness to block lanes and coordinate with other members of the backline. I sometimes have trouble discerning exactly how fast he is (i.e. does he fall into the technical category of “solidly above average for a CB” or “fast as fuck”?). Without the ball, his stop-start accelerations can sometimes look fairly pedestrian. He was the clear loser in one moment that was akin to a “lateral agility contest” against Haaland.

He’s short for a CB, and does not really outperform his height in an aerial duel:

From my viewing, he seems to do a little better in corner duels than open play ones (which are about leverage instead of bullying and savvy), but it still leaves a lot to be desired. I’m not overly concerned with aerial prowess on a player-by-player basis but think the team makeup (and ratio) is generally important, and Arsenal is on a knife’s edge currently. Havertz will help!

From there, Timber can make two kinds of mistakes: mistakes of trying (good) and mistakes of randomly flipping off or losing a man (bad).

Here’s the more likely kind of mistake. He steps up to take on Weston McKennie for a loose ball, going to ground to get his foot on it. He gets there, but vacates a space in doing so, which leaves Pulisic to run in behind:

The second kind of mistake is a little tougher to fairly evaluate. He has so much responsibility these days, and the Ajax team around him can oscillate between occasional brilliance, lethargy, and mistake-proneness. As such, there are some plays where he floats up the pitch, and then loses a runner when tracking back — or “turns off” a run at the wrong time. He had a huge task against a late-subbed Osimhen, but nonetheless was holding his own and not getting shoved off. Still, on one incisive run to the goal, he asked his teammates to cover. There are some games where his energy levels seemed lower than others. I’d speculate why, but that’d be silly.

If you’ll allow a moment of flagrant coachspeak, I do think there is justifiable concern as to whether he can be Top Dog in a back-two, defensively. Like we covered with Havertz as an attacker, he works better in interplay. In Timber’s case, that means seeking out a reliable wrecker next to him, allowing him some flexibility, and offering to clean up any mess. These little mistakes showed up less frequently (to my eye) when he was supported by Licha instead of a rotating cast of characters. He mostly gets that with VVD on the national level, and he’d likely always have that at Arsenal, but it’s something to monitor.

🔥 TL;DR: Profile and Future

Timber is a picture-perfect profile for Arsenal, and already carries so many qualities that Arteta treasures in a player. If he had followed up his barnstorming, League-Player-of-the-Year-at-20-years-old campaign with another big step up, he’d be in for a huge-money transfer. After all, the man he benched at the World Cup went for £68m after his own disappointing campaign, though he might be a profile with more suitors.

Instead, it’s been a winding season that nonetheless showcased why he garnered so much attention coming up. He thus presents Arteta with another post-hype semi-value of a talent in the highest tier. (Sorry, I couldn’t figure out how to word that better.)

On the ball, Timber is as experienced and composed as one could possibly hope for at his age. The task, then, is largely not about unlocking potential, but continuing to hone a potential that is already on display. He is special there; I have few notes.

Off the ball, I marginally like him most in a high-line back-three, where he is more isolated on individual attackers and freer to be aggressive (with a bigger CCB covering behind). One hopes that some of his mistakes or switch-offs will buffer out with age, as he is still many years off the “peak” window of a big-time defender.

In terms of roles, it’s a bit of a Catch-22. In theory, he has 100% of the things you’d want in a modern inverted full-back: scanning, defending, dueling, quick-passing, tactical clarity, comfort in midfield, tight-space carrying, 360° feel, speed, composure, I can go on. In practice, he… looks better as a centre-back right now. This may be down to temperament (I don’t know, he seems to like being a CB) or just sample size (since he’s become fully-formed, he hasn’t played as a FB much; though those two things may relate).

These numbers would seem to point us in the direction of pure RCB, but again, given the sample (more development years = more RB, more advanced years = more RCB), I’m not certain we should take it as gospel:

With that, some final, scattered thoughts:

Timber can provide high-skilled, press-resistant CB depth as needed, though he has a few areas where he needs to increase his consistency, and is likely to have a few mistakes in the PL.
I happen to believe that White’s current rendition of full-backing (a back-three CB in build-up, that tucks in a bit in advanced areas, then interplays up top occasionally) is largely a good immediate use of his abilities, because of its similarities to a back-3 job. He’s great through the middle, but this view isn’t fully supported by his full-back tape to date when high and wide, so it requires some vision and/or optimism. He’s good in space, but may not prove to be quite expansive enough when limited to the touchline; the role can be better tailored to his skills, and I did see him turn a MoTM performance in there once.
If Saliba were to take a breather, I’d personally feel more comfortable seeing White at RCB and Timber at RB, at this stage. But either could work and I’m not too passionate about it before I see it.
Then, we dream. I think he’s got sky-high potential through the middle as a true inverted partner (from CB or, more likely, RB), and think the current squad — particularly with the addition of Havertz — is crying out for the option of a Right Zinchenko as a base. (That was going to be my next article, in fact). He is comfortable and ticks every box, and this is probably where his potential is most exciting. But we must be realistic about what can reasonably be expected of a player who just turned 22 and is making a big leap. He may take off immediately; he may require a bit to ease in; it may never really happen. (I may be more rosy about his immediate potential here than I am letting on; I just think some patience is probably healthy).
Finally: I think this is an ideal situation for Timber to step into, for his own sake. There is a right-sized opportunity for significant minutes at a top side, without the crushing expectations that typically accompany them. I wouldn’t fully discount his ability to earn those significant minutes right away, but no matter how it shakes out, he just feels very Arsenal.

In any case, I don’t feel much like being in the “recommendation” game here. I’m just happy to see the real possibility of a player like Timber joining, and delighted to see how it turns out.

Happy grilling, indeed.

🔥

Edu's BBQ

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