Using analytics, tape, and Klopp’s evolving tactics to understand what is troubling Liverpool and how Arsenal might exploit it on Sunday
Liverpool are forever intertwined with a song about walking. Despite momentary bursts of hope like Tuesday's game against Rangers, this year's performances have called to mind a different tune about a stroll — a hungover Kris Kristofferson greeting the day in "Sunday Mornin' Comin' Down":
Well, I woke up Sunday morning
With no way to hold my head that didn't hurt
And the beer I had for breakfast wasn't bad
So I had one more for dessert
Then I fumbled through my closet for my clothes
And found my cleanest dirty shirt
And I washed my face and combed my hair
And stumbled down the stairs to meet the day
A hangover would be entirely understandable from their perspective.
On the way to a potential quadruple, they played the maximum amount of games (54), kept up their own blend of high-intensity pressing the entire time, lost only four times, and left with precious little silverware. In the end, it wasn't the dream night out, but they did feel it the next day.
Sunday morning is indeed coming down. And in their next match, there's an unfamiliar sight. From their own spot down in ninth, they are set to face a top-of-the-table Arsenal.
What are the reasons behind Liverpool's dip in results? Will those reasons persist on Sunday? How can Arsenal attack and exploit their new weaknesses? Was Tuesday a legitimate reason for hope, or a false horizon?
Come join a dunce in his quest to answer those questions and more.
Matchup overview
A note on counting stats: Liverpool have played one less match than Arsenal.
Liverpool and Arsenal want to play a broadly similar, modern, high-possession, high-pressing brand of football — with important differences. Liverpool can be even higher in pressing and intensity, more active on the counter attack, more risky with the ball, and bang in more crosses and long balls. Arsenal makes more runs, shoots from deep at a higher rate, and has been less prone to defensive lapses.
Tactics
Before the game against Rangers, Liverpool's tactics haven't been too different from the ones you've observed over the years, but there have been tweaks:
Some notes:
Their base is a 4-3-3 with a single-pivot 6 (Fabinho), bombing fullbacks (often overlapping, but with more nuance this year), two stretched do-it-all midfielders, and three forwards.
In possession, they have a dominant, ever-changing shape. It can generally come in the form of a 2-1-4-3, but adapts to the situation (sometimes to 6 upfront). On the ball side, there are constant rotations to achieve overloads. Fabinho gets high, a midfielder can join the frontline, the fullbacks overlap, Salah can cut inside or stay super wide, etc. Occasionally (and more frequently to my eye), TAA drops back as part of a back-3 to ping crosses from a shallower position.
In mid-block or transition is when they're especially vulnerable. If the initial swarm of counterpress doesn't get home, the aggressive positioning of the fullbacks far upfield often leaves them exposed to balls behind them, and the players behind are struggling to compensate. As we'll cover, this is devastatingly true on the TAA side.
A new look against Rangers
Much to the delight of the crowd at Anfield, Klopp finally offered a tactical change in the midweek Champions League 2-0 win against Rangers, to better results:
In the post-match interview, Klopp called this a 4-4-2 which is a 4-6 in defense "because everybody has to defend." It's not important to get too precious with what to call a base formation these days. Ultimately, this was about a few things: supporting TAA in defense; getting Henderson and Thiago in more comfortable, less exposed positions; and maximizing their strength (4 dynamic forwards).
This new approach did well against Rangers. They missed chances but dominated across the board. Henderson looked like a new player, and the team notched 23 shots to Rangers' 6. They just straight-up looked more natural, and when they switched back to 4-3-3 in the waning minutes, some old problems reared their heads.
The findings aren't conclusive, however. There were no open play goals, and this is the same Rangers side that lost their last two Champions League clashes by a combined score of 7-0. They lost 4-0 to Celtic before that.
Klopp stressed that they only had one session with the new formation, and it's unclear if the plan is to use it in their upcoming Premier League games. In the mind of one schmuck with YouTube and a keyboard, four forwards sounds risky at the Emirates, particularly against a team that inverts and does a 2-3-5 in possession. One could say that Klopp is looking to cure a stretched, exposed midfield by having one fewer midfielder. But I digress.
Will we see the new formation against Arsenal? I'd lean no (I think?), but there's a saying about desperate times.
What's eating Liverpool?
The heart of it is that they look tired. But there are other reasons.
1. Quality of possession and line
Playing the highest line in the league is not a problem in itself, and helps them dominate possession like always, but they’re an outlier from top teams in one way: they are losing the ball a lot more (119.14 times per 90, or 10 more times than last year). This creates a lot of variance and opportunity for the opposition.
The overall drop in confidence in possession, and success in the high press, has impacted the quality of that high line. They only have 13 offside drawn (1.86 per 90) so far. They are usually off the charts here, with 134 last year (3.5 per 90). Always so mechanistic, they're moving as less of a coordinated masse.
2. Bad starts
These problems show up early, where they are worst team in the Premier League. They are dead last in points won in the first half, with a record of 1-1-5.
3. Simple dips in intensity and form
Overall, the Klopp system was created in an evil lab to make the job as hard as possible for the other team. That's not happening quite as much up high: pressures per 90 and balls won in the attacking third are both down.
But similarly, the Klopp system can be devilishly unforgiving for his own players, with particular consideration to CB’s and single-pivots. They have to cover for everyone, offside trap, disrupt top strikers with little help, pass a ton and accurately, and head in goals. If they’re playing at a world-class level, not a problem. If they’re merely pretty good, it can get ugly.
The difficulty of these roles is why the additions of VVD and Fabinho were so central to their trophy runs. Other players have gotten more shit because the mistakes are more noticeable, but Fabinho isn’t having anywhere near his usual impact, and it's reverberating throughout the pitch. This is at least part of the explanation for Klopp experimenting with formations without the role.
4. Trent Alexander-Arnold + tweaked tactics
You’ve heard that Trent Alexander-Arnold is looking low-effort on defense, and while that's been a bit of an overused pundit trope in previous years, it carries truth this year.
Watching, though, there seems to have been intentionality behind his positioning. It can be even higher and more up the middle than years past.
Alexander-Arnold runs up the middle to accept a ball from Elliott on a quick-turn possession. He immediately turns it into a beautiful ball for Salah, who almost scores. That said: if the pass was intercepted, look how exposed the right back is.
If I had to guess what Klopp has been trying to do, it’s this:
Move Salah out wider on the playmakery wing to make space in the box for the long-term plan of Núñez, who is more of a traditional striker than a false 9.
With Salah out there in a playmaker role, he's occupying a lot of the spaces TAA likes, so TAA has been asked to be more active in midfield (instead of just banging in crosses from the wing).
This is OK in theory and bonkers in practice, because covering TAA is either a 19-year-old attacker (Elliott, who is usually on the right) or a series of olds and slows: some combination of Henderson, Milner, and Fabinho. It gets sillier when Henderson joins a front 5 (or 6) instead of Trent.
In these shapes, there is simply always space for the other team to explore.
5. The midfield, the midfield, the midfield
The midfield is thin, injured, aging, and their current form in a 4-3-3 just showcases how impossible their roles have always been.
You, Henderson! Simply press with Salah, hold the midfield, join the line with the forwards in attack, and cover the deep RB. How hard is that?
Above is a small example of the difficulty of being a Liverpool midfielder. Henderson high-presses himself, then Alexander-Arnold runs up the wing, so Henderson has to sprint back to cover him. This is the system working as intended. Still, the midfield is often misshapen as a result of these rotations.
As a result, they are often stretched so wide, and unable to move quickly to cover other stuff in the build-up. That space behind TAA is where goals almost always originate from.
Reasons for opponents to temper their confidence
While pulling underlying numbers to compare last year's Liverpool side to this year's, I expected to find some interesting nuggets that point to the problems they've had.
My main reaction was to notice how similar they've been to last year:
Some differences highlighted in red: they're letting in more goals, more quality shots, and are losing the ball more. Interestingly, their high press (as measured by PPDA, where lower number = higher intensity press) is even higher than last year. Might be a sample size thing, as they haven't faced other high line teams yet.
On top of that, there are a couple reasons not to feel overconfident:
They're allowing the lowest pass % in the league, by far (69.2%).
Their pressure success rate is still highest in the league (38.6%).
On the other side, Núñez' npxG is 1 per 90. Albeit in limited time, he's getting into dangerous positions, Salah is good at finding him, and he's either been on the wrong end of luck or finishing quality. Unfortunately, I expect the goals to come.
Arsenal hasn't faced a throughball threat like them, because there isn't one. They average 15.28 per 90, which is 50% higher than the next highest team (City at 10.3).
They've still got a ridiculous front line, TAA is a generational passer, Thiago is one of the better on-ball players of the time, and they're still Liverpool.
Tactical changes look to be on the way.
But enough of all that expectation management. How will Arsenal score?
🔥 5 keys to scoring against Liverpool 🔥
You'll hear that Liverpool have given up many goals this year. It's not true. They've given up the same goal, many times.
Ultimately, this is a case where the simpleton and the 200 IQ'd will come to the same, correct conclusion: attack on the left.
But it's one thing to say that, and it's another to devise how to get there. Let's do it.
1. Break the press by inducing midfield gaps
This is by far the highest-pressing and highest-possession team Arsenal has faced to date. As such, breaking the press is the first order of business.
Among other strategies, Liverpool often allows balls to be played to midfielders, and then swarms them. Below is a good example of how to use their aggression against them.
Webster plays it to Caicedo in the middle, under no illusions about what's going to happen next. Henderson runs up, and Firmino closes down. Caicedo recycles it in one touch back to his CBs...
I don't want to over-emphasize it because it's so minor, but almost every player on Liverpool takes at least a passive half-step towards Caicedo in a situation like this.
...with Firmino and midfielders recovering from their lean towards Caicedo, there are now more lanes to infiltrate. Dunk dunks a pass through a gap to Groß. Thiago isn't always the best at covering these lateral balls...
...and bam, press is broken, off to the races.
When playing a team who reliably harasses the ball like Liverpool, it's possible (though difficult) to flip that into an advantage — particularly against a stretched midfield.
Teams can use passes to get Liverpool's players where they want them to be, recycle it quickly, shift play, and let physics to the rest: a passed ball travels faster than a recovering runner ever could.
2. Test the resolve of their offside trap
Liverpool's offside trap has been one of their silent killers over the years.
It reveals itself in multiple ways. They usually lead the league in opponent offsides by a wide margin. They also provoke a good deal of low-efficiency long balls; teams try to hit it over a disciplined high line and the ball is either offside, too deep (gathered by Alisson), or imprecise (gathered by a defender).
That number of opponent long balls has dipped this year, from 91 to 80 per match. I'd hypothesize that this is because a) teams are smartening up to Liverpool's tricks; b) a lot of "long balls" are actually clearances from the high press, which isn't quite as effective this year; and c) simpler passes have been all that was needed in many cases.
But there's still opportunity. Let's look at one screenshot of an offside trap not being quite as foolproof as its been in years past.
Zambo Anguissa pings a pass to a cutting Simeone.
You'll notice a couple things in the above moment. One is that the line is OK. Another is that every Liverpool player is visible in this shot, leaning to the ball side (look where Trent is as a right-back). The final point is that the high line — so sturdy in years past — is visibly more lethargic this year. Where they used to lunge forward in unison and make their bodies small, they are more likely to just stand there.
The ball results in a goal up the middle for Napoli to put them up 4-0.
Testing them over the top is not a fool's errand.
3. Flood their left with 1-2's
If ever there were a goal that typifies Liverpool's struggles this year, it's Jadon Sancho's score from August.
Out wide, Elanga and Eriksen treat TAA like a training cone. Elanga dishes it to Eriksen, who one-touches it into space...
...Gomez goes to cover but is a little late, and the cross nutmegs him...
...and Sancho takes his sweet time against a defense that is either geriatrically challenging (Milner), not moving (VVD), or walking over (TAA). Goal.
This play has happened over and over again, most damningly against Napoli.
Zambo Anguissa passes it off and immediately cuts towards goal...
...the ball is delivered, and none of the four defenders around can be bothered to run with him. Clear shot. Goal.
There were similar opportunities against Ajax and even Rangers.
One thing you'll notice is that tactical changes won't necessarily solve the above opportunities. There are plenty of players around, and they outnumber their opponents in the box by a large margin. They're just not doing the job.
So whatever the tweaks, the Martinelli-Xhaka-Zinchenko triangle, with Jesus rotating and joining in on the fun, has all the potential in the world on Sunday. On that...
4. Isolate defenders and dribble 1v1 on the left
This is a rough matchup for Liverpool. The team that is particularly vulnerable on the left (second in the league in % of attempts from that side), and has given up the most goals off the dribble in the Premier League (4), now has to face the two most successful dribblers in the Premier League, both often found on the left: Martinelli (20 completed) and Jesus (19).
The reason we've focused so much on the Napoli game, and will continue to, is because it was a bloodbath. Napoli went up 4-0 in the 47th minute, and even that scoreline flattered Liverpool. Out of 18 shots, Napoli missed 5 big opportunities — including a missed penalty and a shot off the post.
This was done with a lower-posession, countering 4-2-3-1, some excellent performances (including Zieliński, Osimhen, and the aforementioned Zambo Aguissa), and the dribbling stylings of one man: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. (Side note: Kvara might be my #1 appointment viewing in the world right now).
Let's look at how he broke down Liverpool in ways that can only be described as Martinellian.
Kvara accepts the ball on the wing, and very disrespectfully pops it over TAA and runs around the back of him...
...look how far TAA is behind now, with Kvara now isolated on Gomez. Kvara tries to pop it around him too, which doesn't go quite as smoothly...
...but he beats him to the endline anyway. He curls a pass around VVD for a goal. 3-0 Napoli.
This brings up another point. Any time a winger can pull the RCB out on the edge of the box (be it Gomez or Matip), the goal is wide open for the taking, even if the wider parts of the box are strewn with defenders.
Fun fact to wrap this section up: the two players in the world most similar to Kvara according to fb-ref? Martinelli and Saka.
5. Recover the ball and act immediately
There are more loose balls in a Liverpool match than virtually any other. Recovering these — whether through duels, interceptions, or gathering errant passes — unlocks everything, and might decide the game.
As Arsenal is likely to share possession at a higher rate than they have in any other game this season, the counter will be more important than ever.
Here are a couple ways it's been done so far.
Counter-pressing the middle
Arsenal has more midfield solidity than Liverpool and can afford to be more aggressive there.
In this instance, Liverpool has just won possession and VVD looks to pass it up to Núñez. With a lot of players walking, Tim Ream aggressively cuts the pass and dribbles forward, kicking off a great goal-scoring opportunity for Kebano, who hits the post.
Pop it into space immediately after getting the ball
Palhinha does Palhinha things and cuts a passing lane and immediately dumps it over the top to Mitrović, who is now isolated 1v1 on VVD, which resulted in a foul in the box and penalty kick.
Eze did something similar for the Palace goal, setting up a Zaha 1v1. I'd show it to you, but I've reached the 20-image Reddit maximum 😅.
This is the place where Klopp's tactical changes are likely to make the biggest impact, so it'll be interesting to see how it unfolds.
Other opportunities
Overlap on the right: The left-back spot is not impervious. Tsimikas has been filling in for an injured Robertson, and that may be the case on Sunday. To my eyes, this hasn't resulted in a massive dip in quality, with Tsimikas filling in OK — struggling a little at Brighton and doing well at Rangers. It's a tough ask for Ben White, but the overlap looks particularly dangerous in transition. Fulham pushed the ball with Kebano, attracted interest, and then overlapped with Tete — who banged in a cross to Mitrovic, who of course scored on the header.
Shot selection: Liverpool gives up the highest % of shots in the 18 yards box (68%), and the lowest outside of the box (21%). The remaining 11% of their shots are up close.
Set pieces: They're pretty elite. 5 goals scored, 0 given up. Overall, their aerial duel % is in the middle of the pack because of some players struggles in the air (Salah, Fabinho, Diaz, Thiago). If you can somehow isolate them, Alisson hasn't been coming out for crosses a lot.
Milner: Klopp put him in at LB against Brighton with the game on the line. If he does it against Saka, it's another shameful example of mistreatment of the elderly.
🔥 In Conclusion 🔥
It's going to be a fascinating match. To recap, here's what a great one might look like for Arsenal:
Break the press by inducing midfield gaps: The back four (and Ramsdale) invite press swarms and switch play quickly to break the line.
Test the resolve of their offside trap: The high line is actively challenged by our forwards and those who seek them out with progressive passes (Zinchenko, Partey, White come to mind).
Flood their left with 1-2's: The Martinelli-Xhaka-Zinchenko triangle, with Jesus joining in, is relentless at creating opportunities.
Isolate defenders and dribble 1v1 on the left: In space, Martinelli and Jesus try to go around TAA and the RCB, and if nothing else, force them into bad positions.
Recover the ball and act immediately: Loose ball duels are going to be massive, and Liverpool counterpresses quick. If Arsenal can be quicker about getting the ball away, there are chances in the offing.
For the first time, Arsenal are facing their match in terms of pressing and possession, but it's a team with elite players who are either struggling for form or in flux tactically. There's every reason for newfound confidence, and many of the old reasons for trepidation.
Ultimately, it may come down to the obvious: loose balls, finishing quality, and a battle for production between the two likely action zones: Arsenal on the left-wing and Liverpool on the right.
Gonna be a good one.
Happy grilling everybody.
🔥