What would João Félix look like at Arsenal?
There have been increasing links to the Atleti starlet, however tenuous. Come waste your time with a long scouting report on his game.
Hello, you beauties. If you’re desperate enough for Arsenal content to be reading my bullshit, you likely already know: there have been some links to João Félix of late.
Due to his likely price, I hold a healthy amount of skepticism about the veracity of such reports, but hey: I’ll never pass up the opportunity to stay up late and nerd out on something that is unlikely to materialize, so long as you lot might be interested in it.
Shall we?
João Félix has been trailed by Kaká comparisons for much of his life. In an anecdote perfect for a buttery magazine profile, he grew up with Kaká’s poster on his wall, and wound up looking like he could be his son.
When you really peel back the levels to the comparisons, though, you’ll find them to be a little obvious, a little superficial, and … well, understandable, really. It’s hard not to think about his idol when watching him play.
As teams evaluate Félix’s talent, the conversation naturally flows to his optimal role, a question Atleti manager Diego Simeone doesn’t seem to have put to rest. Félix himself doesn’t dither: “My best position is as the second forward,” he says. “Playing like a No 10, with a guy in front of me.”
The game’s evolution has led to a few such “tweener” forwards underperforming in the modern game, when they may have thrived in eras past. Kai Havertz comes to mind; some of Paulo Dybala’s peaks-and-valleys do as well. All players are dependent on their system to varying degrees. These players, especially so.
Meanwhile, Kaká himself talked about his former position as a 10 in mournful terms:
“It is not that it is being lost, it is that it has already been completely lost, among other things, because with the defences so advanced there is hardly any space left in the center of the field … What's more, I don't know where I would play in this more physical football, if I would play it a little more open to the left or box-to-box.”
Arsenal does not have this problem. Depending on your definition, Captain Martin Ødegaard embodies a modern evolution of the 10. On the other side, the squad’s fullback inversion has allowed Granit Xhaka to push ahead from a classic box-to-box 8 to more of a “fake 10,” in his words, a move credited for his lift in form.
Hey, Kaká, fear not: the best team in the Premier League has two 10s!
Across world football, more positionless attackers have thrived, and you can argue with evidence that many of the best players in the world are adapted, flexible 10’s—albeit with more responsibilities.
Which brings us back to Félix. He’s played roaming 10, he’s played advanced striker, he’s played twin striker, he’s played both wings. Much has been made about Simeone seemingly purpose-building circumstances to squander his talents, while Félix has been good enough for Portugal to keep Rafael Leão on the bench.
With a formidable pricetag expected, what do we make of all this? Is Arsenal the perfect place for a “relationist” player like Félix to unlock his world-beating potential, with Arteta settling in as the anti-Simeone? Or should his inconsistency be chalked up to something wider than the Atleti system and his role within it?
Let’s dig in.
His role for Atleti
Félix arrived in 2019 from Benfica in a €126 million transfer after notching 22 G+A in 21 starts as an 18-year-old en route to a Premiera Liga title.
Only compared to those lofty expectations, the following years have been mixed, as they’ve resulted in a Golden Boy award, a La Liga title, and remarkable periods of form—as well as injuries, benchings, and persistent questions about his fit in a Simeone system.
Last season was a little less complicated. After starting slow, he caught fire for stretches and won the team’s Player of the Season award, finishing with 10 goals and 6 assists.
Here’s a look at his last 365 compared to all forwards in the Top 5 leagues:
This season, despite hopes for the long-awaited true breakout campaign, the uncertainty has returned, including sporadic time on the pitch, and more visible tension with his manager.
I won’t profess to be an expert on Simeoneball, which has certainly reached its heights over the years. Here’s what I know from watching this period: they alternate largely between a 4-4-2 and a 3-5-2; the system is still based on slow, rugged, all-team defending; the midfield creativity can lead much to be desired, and often feels very lethargic; since his return, they rely heavily on the heroics of one Antoine Griezmann; and finally, weird shit happens in seemingly every game, usually late.
Here’s a look at their shapes in the last year:
As far as tempo and style goes, their line is low: their PPDA (passes per defensive action) is 16th in the league. Their challenge intensity is 16th in the league. They notch only 46.6% possession in league, good for 13th. They still pass a lot.
Nominally, the front-two system shares much in common with the one employed by Benfica in the season when the world learned his name. But stylistically, much is different: they have the ball less, they press with less intensity, and they’re less creative. While watching them this year, I was surprised to see how much coverage is needed for the backline, and how much of it may not be due to identity, but necessity: help is needed to cover lapses back there.
Against Real Madrid, here’s a look at him accepting the ball on the edge of the box in a position that may typically present opportunities for 1-2’s or crosses. Instead, there are no real cuts happening, and zero players in the box. The attackers are easily outnumbered by their opponent:
Here’s another play.
When there are free runs to be made, like this one behind a Rodrigo de Paul dribble, there are so few players involved that Real Madrid can smother the carrier with four (five?) players.
This all presents a few problems for Félix. The main one is just that there isn’t enough possession, or enough interesting, creative play happening around him — particularly from the midfield. Griezmann is Griezmann but play can stall out otherwise.
In reality, he’s been more of a lonely wide playmaker than a second striker. This means Félix is unlikely to receive progressive passes, or incisive passes in the box, and when he does, there aren’t many dynamic rotations happening around him. He winds up playing most of the game in more isolated situations than he’d prefer.
Amidst an increasingly-fraught relationship with Simeone, he’s only started 5 out of 12 games in the league, and tallied 6 G+A along the way.
His role for Portugal
It’s been a different story with Portugal. Fernando Santos eventually adopted a pretty progressive attacking style, culminating in the 6-goal drubbing of Switzerland. The below is a longer quote from Santos, but an enlightening one about the changing state of football, especially when compared to the more static playing styles of yore:
“I want that variability. That’s why I’m also playing a much more hybrid system to allow those wider movements with the right compensations. I don’t care if Bernardo is on the right, in the middle, or further back, or if Félix comes inside and then goes outside, that doesn’t matter to me at all. What I want … is that you in this anarchy don’t lose the ball easily, that you have the ability to recover the ball and react to the loss, with the ability to quickly get into defensive organization and occupy the right spaces.”
In this free role based on the left-wing, he was able to express himself more completely. “Dropping deep” at Atleti usually just means having the ball in the middle third without a lot going on around him. With Portugal, it means a lot of players ahead, so you can see a play like this:
Félix looked pretty great at the World Cup, playing untethered, scoring on the right-wing against Ghana and racking up two assists against Switzerland: one from the left and one up the middle. Like the rest of his team, his final performance against Morocco was a little less dynamic and interesting, but more about misses on the margins and a brilliant Moroccan gameplan. He wrapped up with a curling lefty strike that looked like a possible equalizer.
Here’s what Atlético's CEO Miguel Ángel Gil Marín said during that run:
"Félix is the biggest bet the club has ever made. I think he's a high-performance player, one of the best in the world, but, for reasons that it's not worth naming now, the relationship between him and the coach is not good, nor is his motivation. I would love for it to continue, but that is not the player's intention."
…and here’s what Félix during his run with Portugal:
"The way you play here and at the club are different. When the conditions are favorable, things go better.”
Would conditions be more favorable at Arsenal? One would have to think so.
How does he compare to some Arsenal attackers?
Below, I pulled all in-league data from 22-23 for Jesus, Martinelli, Xhaka, and Saka — and added Mudryk for comparison as well.
The obvious caveats to be aware of: Jesus is a striker; Martinelli, Saka, and Mudryk are wingers; Xhaka is a “fake 10,” of course, who I threw in because I could see Félix operating in that channel; Félix has played primarily as a wide playmaker in a front-two. There are gaps in play-styles, and of course league quality (particularly for Mudryk).
Anyway, here’s the comparison set:
Some notes:
Félix gets fewer touches and less game-time than anybody on the list. Thanks to team play-style, he also gets fewer touches in the box despite his role as a forward.
His goals per 90 is higher than any Arsenal player. I’m intrigued by his assists being high and his xA being so low, and we’ll dig into that more.
Wyscout has his dribbling success rate as the lowest in the sample. Weird, considering that is one of the skills he is known for. More on that as well.
His ball-striking
If you’re looking to calm your jets about the potential of Félix joining Arsenal, I wouldn’t suggest looking at his last two league games for Atleti.
In the team’s last game before the break against Espanyol, he came on as 65th minute sub with the team down 1-0. He equalized the game at 78’, and almost won it with two more shots on target.
In the game before that, he was also a second-half sub, this time with the team trailing 2-0.
He scored his first goal on a bicycle kick off a corner, which deflected in:
…and then he scored from here four minutes later to tie it up. 😬
It still wasn’t enough. A late defensive lapse meant Cadiz scored again in the 98th minute to win 3-2. In other words: a Very Normal Atleti Game.
Félix is not a pure striker, as he temperament leads more to general creativity—in link-up play, in overall playmaking, and in attacking triangles with plays in front of him.
When he does let it rip, the ball flies off his foot. This probably leads him to taking a few too many shots from distance. In all, he’s not imprecise:
As you’ll see, his shots increase in the later stages of both halves. This is particularly true at the end of the game, which is unsurprising for a few reasons. First, he often comes on as a sub. Second, attacking activity can pick up late, in general. Third, and most importantly here, this is when Atleti plays at their most free, especially when down.
His passing, dribbling, and running
Félix’s small-space technicality is the most impressive part of his game. It allows him to be extremely press-resistant, while displaying dexterity in dropping in areas all over the pitch.
As we’ve established, he looks most comfortable in the left half-space, and does a lot of his passing work there.
Among forwards, he’s 98th percentile at through-balls. His vision can be downright absurd, often playing guys open before they even realize it, like when he created this shot for Cunha:
As a dribbler, he’s had a lot of success over the years, but this year, his stats have dipped: his 59.6% success rate last year has dropped to 25% this year, according to fb-ref, albeit in a small sample (5 for 20). It’s probably worth noting that he was 11 for 14 (78.6%) in the World Cup.
Looking at the tape of his lost dribbles this year, I’m not sure how much to ascertain. He may be pressing a little bit, and it looks like his teammates aren’t showing for the ball quite enough, so he’s trying to dribble through 1v2’s. I wouldn’t say he’s suddenly lost any of his on-ball skills, and he’s picking up fouls at a high rate (2.59 per 90), for what it’s worth.
As a runner, he’s firmly in the Saka tier—plenty fast to do the job, but not in the class of Martinelli or Mudryk.
His work out of possession
I’m not sure I have the fullest handle on his defensive résumé. My take: he’s a guy. He pretty much does the thing.
Simeone’s system doesn’t necessarily call for a high-intensity work-rate in the press—it’s more Tottenham than Liverpool. Still, he doesn’t distinguish himself with his vigor, often looking a little upright and stiff, but nonetheless fulfilling the basics of the assignment.
In any case, the stats are fine this year. He wins 58.7% of his defensive duels and has shown a little more aggression in the last two seasons, to my eye. His tackles, interceptions, and dribbles are all good enough for the 80th+ percentile of La Liga attackers.
When compared to players across La Liga, his recoveries are mid-to-low-pack:
The case against Simeone
When considering his momentary pause in career trajectory, everything circles around the central question: is this about Simeone or about him?
In a moment of humility, Simeone shared this answer:
"Everything bad that Joao does is that I do it worse, when I don't give him what he needs to give everything he has.”
As supporting evidence, I thought it might be helpful to compare the service he received at Benfica, as an 18-year-old, to his current season:
At Benfica, he received 7.86 progressive passes per 90, compared to 3.86 now
At Benfica, he had 24.6 touches in the attacking third, compared to 20 now
At Benfica, he had 6.25 touches in the attacking penalty box, compared to 3.16 now
He is now twice as likely to touch the ball in his team’s defensive third as he was at Benfica
Meanwhile, many of his efficiency stats (passing %, shots on target, etc) line up
There have been bumps in the road in terms of injury and inconsistency, but I believe Félix’s trajectory to have been interrupted by situational factors, not an overall drop in his level compared to original expectation. I see little reason to fully reappraise the talents that he showed in Portugal.
In conclusion
It’s easy to see what could make Félix so attractive from an Arsenal point of view, and vice versa. Here are some bullets as to why:
His skillset is crying out for a possession-based, expressive system that looks to create numerical overloads through rotations, while also being dangerous in transition. Arteta may be his perfect Simeone rebound.
In the short-term, he could play across the attack, doing his part with Eddie to fill in for the absence of Jesus, perhaps looking like a Jesus/Firmino hybrid in a deeper 9.
From there, he could raise the level of the squad with starts across both wings, and be counted on to safely contribute to a title charge with a true two-deep roster up front. He’s a little more comfortable and dangerous playing on the left, but has played on the right a fair amount, including his goal in the World Cup. There’s a little bit of righty-Kulusevski to his game when he’s on the wing.
I’m in no rush to replace Xhaka, and I’m not sure how galaxy-brain this is, but I can’t shake the feeling that his updated “fake 10” role might be the key to unlocking the long-term potential of Félix. He may not fully fit the longer definition of a mezzala, but he might match the literal translation perfectly: “half-winger.” My reasons are thus:
In attack, imagine Xhaka with more speed, more press-resistance in the middle third, the ability to rotate with a Martinelli on the wing, and world-class technical ability. A fluid Martinelli/Félix/Jesus left side would be an absolute handful for opponents, and Félix has shown that this half-space is where he’s most comfortable. This would also get him ~15 more touches a game: more in build-up, and more near goal.
There’s a big counterargument: Félix hasn’t consistently shown the defensive work rate needed to succeed in that role. This could be offset in a couple of ways. The first: Félix improves his defensive intensity in a higher-tempo side, like KDB did. The second, more harebrained idea: the roles flip and Ødegaard occupies the “fake 10” on the right, with Félix occupying more of the “real 10” on the left, and Partey leaning a little bit more centrally (like Rodri does) to solidify the rest defense. This doesn’t have to be an immediate move, but could answer the question of his long-term home. Just spitballing bad ideas here, folks.
I don’t think this would interrupt any of Vieira’s trajectory. Arteta values versatility and unpredictability. The goal is to have two starters for every position, and I believe Vieira’s mid-term future isn’t locked into any narrow role, but playing all over the pitch. I also suspect the in-house grading of his potential at right-wing is likely higher than that of the fanbase.
As with any transfer, it all comes down to value. I still consider the team to be much more likely to sign a Mudryk than a Félix. The reasons are obvious: Mudryk is also a hugely exciting talent. Not only is the transfer fee likely to be higher for Félix, the wages are likely to be significantly higher, making the long-term investment go up levels. In general, Edu and Arteta have shown remarkable discipline in their business, including a stubborn unwillingness to bust up the wage structure again, or trade any element of the long-term vision for short-term need.
That said, Arsenal’s sharks should circle here. This should be an immensely attractive project to a Félix, and because of his unique skillset and potential cost, the list of likely suitors should be limited. In his eyes, the downside would be that he’d be competing for positions again, instead of a locked-in every week starter. If he welcomes the competition, I can’t think of a better spot for him.
If there is somehow an opportunity for a loan with a reasonable obligation to buy, I’d take it yesterday. If the transfer fee starts getting closer to other options, and the wages don’t break the table, it’s a rare opportunity to lock in a talent like this. Otherwise, it remains unlikely, and one of the fastest players in the world (Mudryk) is welcomed to the carpet.
OK, I told you it’d be a waste of time. Can’t say I didn’t warn you.
Happy grilling everybody.
🔥
The xA (and xG for that matter) from Wyscout can be quite different than others. They don't seem to count shots that are blocked and other key passes that others count seem to drop off, they have him at 0.7 key passes while Opta has him at 1.4.
Wyscout data in general is always a bit less reliable (like the weird goal on the map) than others. It is a bummer because they have great video and it would cool to have it be one stop.