Xhaka, ESR, and the future of the left-sided 8

Looking at the role's updated responsibilities, the ideal qualities of an eventual Xhaka successor, and whether or not it could be Emile Smith Rowe

As Arsenal ventured to Oxford for a third round FA Cup showdown on Monday, the real nerds were not in the libraries — they were eyeing the developments in Arsenal’s advanced midfield. We’re here to talk about two such developments today.

First, we witnessed the much-anticipated return of Emile Smith Rowe — whose late-match sub resulted in excitement, rust, and a near-goal. His multiyear injury is at last operated upon, and while patience should be preached, it’s great to see him back.

Second, we saw a 0-0 score flip into a 3-0 win in no time, thanks in no small part to the steadying contributions of Granit Xhaka.

Much has been written about the Xhakaissance, which is not much of a Xhakaissance at all because he’s been better than ever. While the updates to his role have led to the best form of his career, the previous two games demonstrate why fans should be so grateful for his contributions, and curious as to the long-term plan for fortifying and evolving the position.

As always, it’s a long-read — and a particularly long one in this case. I tell myself that I’d rather overestimate people’s attention spans and be proven wrong, than underestimate them and be proven right.

Whatever. It’s time better spent than refreshing Mudryk news. Let’s dive in!

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How have Xhaka’s responsibilities changed in the left 8 this year?

Xhaka outlined his ideal role back in 2017, at a time when he was further back and leading the league in misplaced passes:

“I’d actually describe myself as a fake No10 – in other words, a No. 10 that plays further back.”

Five years later, it’s finally happening. A few steps were necessary to make it so: Thomas Partey was signed and developed to fulfill all the impossible responsibilities of a lone 6; on the full-back front, Oleksandr Zinchenko was signed and Ben White was brought on and shifted to right-back to form a three-man midfield in build-up; and Xhaka himself reported to duty “slimmer than ever” after a threat of being replaced in the new role by Mikel Arteta:

“I spoke to him at the end of the season and said, ‘I need to unlock something in your brain because you’re so comfortable and confident playing in this area that you have forgot that actually what is going to win us the game is here and the team now demands somebody here, so unless you unlock that I’m going to have to do something about it’.

Though the process began last season, let’s look at how things have changed.

The attacking numbers paint a clear picture of a player further up, more active and dangerous in the box, and less active in build-up.

In a fun and memorable example, this new role looks like the third goal against Tottenham.

Xhaka is so far up that he’s waiting for Martinelli in the middle. He accepts a hand-off as Martinelli cuts inside:

…and bangs it into the corner webbing to seal the game:

In years past, he simply wouldn’t have been there.

While that was fun and all, much more often, his position looks like this:

Xhaka’s attacking role is to embrace his positional savvy, pick out passes in crowded spaces, and rotate as fluidly as possible. He’s been good at arriving in the box behind the striker on low crosses, and has netted home multiple goals in such fashion.

He’s also been around for mop-up duty, like when Danny Ward spilled a save in his direction and he put it home:

Here’s where I thrill you with more ingenious analysis: he likely wouldn’t have been standing there in previous years.

(I am not a tactico. I am the tactico.)

While he’s much less ball-dominant—with 11 fewer touches per game in the middle third—Xhaka is not completely absent from build-up. With Zinchenko in the middle, Xhaka can be seen rotating or dropping deep in ways that feel as much like a striker as a midfielder. He can also provide space by holding height like a striker, as he may be Arsenal’s most adept player at picking out Ødegaard’s unexpected line-breakers, keeping CB’s glued and paranoid.

How have things changed out of possession?

It’s all down, folks. And let this be a reminder of how role-dependent (and inconclusive) defensive analytics can be. Xhaka has shown no signs of a flagging work rate. He has been an effective team defender given the core asks of his role. The opponent possession has been lower, and the responsibilities have just shifted.

To show you just how much they have, here are his percentiles when compared to Premier League midfielders this year:

He’s pressing less. He’s got zero tackles in the attacking third. He’s intercepting less. He’s recovering the ball less. His work in the midfield has mellowed.

As an attacking member of a 2-3-5 “rest defense,” the core midfield shape and disruption is offered by the practical “midfield” of Zinchenko, Partey, and White. Xhaka himself is not always agile enough to directly interrupt counters from so far up. When opponent play settles, he then holds the middle in more of a 4-4-2 of late, keeping position, leaning into people, and communicating.

In all, that means when Arsenal dominates possession against a weaker opponent, his responsibilities are relatively few in number — but as we saw against Oxford, they can still pay dividends.

His out-of-possession task list increases against top sides, however.

Early against Newcastle, he was back with Martinelli to help Zinchenko stave off the Almirón threat. This all-hands work is part of the reason Newcastle gave up on attacking:

Against Liverpool, he spent much of the first half plugging a spot between Gabriel and Tomiyasu to help pocket Salah:

Throughout the season, almost every player on the pitch has been given more license to roam freely and follow opportunity where it leads. While he doesn’t have the burners to regularly join in the reindeer games, Xhaka is always smart at rotating and covering any adventurousness by the likes of Martinelli, the strikers, Partey, and Zinchenko.

In sum, his current defensive responsibilities include little intensity when pressing, but high amounts of stuff that doesn’t always show up in the individual stat sheet: standing in passing lanes, offering overall solidity to the midfield, and a muscular presence in the defensive box. Against top teams, he often has the tough task of getting all the way back and all the way forward, providing much-needed cover to Zinchenko against dangerous right-wing attacks.

What skills does Xhaka lack that Arteta may seek in the platonic ideal for this role?

➡️ Higher pressing intensity

However much the team’s increase in pressing intensity has contributed to the increase in results, I’m not convinced that Arteta is satisfied.

While Martinelli and Saka started the season by sprinting at opponents, it’s been more of a hybrid 4-4-2 of late, with the wingers settling out wide and Nketiah and Ødegaard playing up top, and Xhaka settling in behind. I sense that Arteta is always aching to play bolder, and would like the option to play 3-up with more conviction, but doesn’t want to tax his wingers any more than he already has.

Globally, there are some truly combative pressers in the attacking midfield. Arsenal now has a couple who are developing that way in Ødegaard and Vieira, who are first and second on the team in possession won in the attacking third. Xhaka is eighth, with 0.4 per 90.

➡️ More speed (and carries in build-up)

Three points to make here. First, as we’ve covered, Xhaka can play in more of a box-to-box role against top teams, depending on gameflow. While the “box” and “box” output is usually grand, it’s the “to” where there are issues. Because of his speed limitations, Xhaka can have trouble doing both in immediate succession, and can get caught in the middle third, where he’s least effective.

Second: much has been made about Nketiah’s developing ability to drop deep and turn with the ball to push it forward, but that’s a responsibility of any attacking player. Xhaka’s relative stiffness on the turn has been much of the reason for his earlier struggles in roles further back, and those issues haven’t disappeared.

Finally: if we consider his role with Zinchenko and Martinelli a truly rotating triangle, it’d be great to offer more direct threat from the winger position. He still does the best he can with the tools he has: a late wide rotation lead to the handball shout against Newcastle.

➡️ More variance in advanced passing

Xhaka is a master at quick grounded passing in the box, and solid at crosses. On the other side of the advanced midfield, you’ll see Ødegaard’s lifts, crosses, feints, and through-balls helping generate a team-high in big chances (10), with Xhaka creating two (despite four assists). Particularly when Zinchenko is rotating up and Xhaka is covering back in a mezzalla spot, a fuller range of passes would be welcome.

How does the Arsenal left differ from the right?

Based on the course Arteta has charted over the last couple years, with full-backs tucking in and pushing everyone forward, it’s clear that he doesn’t want five players who can join the attack: he wants five attackers. That basically means Twin 10’s: an Ødegaard on the right, and an Ødegaard on the left.

While the plan may be to have the sides be perfect mirror images of each other, there are some differences as of today.

Take every average position map with a grain of salt, but this one happens to be a little illustrative:

• The Arsenal right (the left on the image above) naturally has more defensive solidity: the right-back is an adapted center-back; Partey is often leaning right; and Saka and Saliba are both great defenders for their positions. This all frees up Ødegaard.

• On the left, it’s more action-packed. The striker is more likely to drift left; Gabriel plays higher than Saliba; Zinchenko is more likely to push up and do all kinds of Zinchenko things; Martinelli is on the touchline for longer than Saka in the current setup, but also cuts inside. This creates a lot of tight-space opportunities for the left-8 role to exploit overloads. But all this action can leave the side a bit more vulnerable to attack. Despite his newly advanced position, Xhaka has to cover for Zinchenko more than Ødegaard has to cover for White.

What does an ideal Arsenal left 8 look like?

With all this in mind, here are the characteristics I’d use to describe the ideal left-8 in the current Arteta system:

• ✅ High-level technicality and movement in the opponent box

• ✅ Creative, diverse range of passes that unsettle defenders and create chances

• ✅ Ability to show danger in all three spots when rotating with LW/inverted LB

• ✅ High pressing intensity

• ✅ Work rate to get back as a “face-up” defender

There are other characteristics that would be nice for any player—dominating box-to-box defending; the ability to expertly unstick build-up—but I’m doing my best to not make this a list of every possible good characteristic of a footballer.

Regardless, a few different profiles of player who could fit the bill. With Smith Rowe on the mend, let’s see how he’d do.

Can ESR fulfill this role?

To answer the question, I brushed up on two categories of games. First, I wanted to look through his best performances to see what conditions led to his production. Next, I looked through his limited time spent in the left-8 to see what we’ve learned.

➡️ His best performances

To get reacquainted with him at his best, I rifled through Spurs (h), Villa (h), Chelsea (a), Brentford (h), and Leicester (a). 

Though he was a left-winger in all, one of the first things that struck me was how similar his positioning often was to this year’s left-8. In many cases, the width was held by Tierney and Tavares bombing as full-backs, so ESR was navigating the half-space just like he would in the new position.

After breaking the press early against Tottenham, ESR dribbles and hits it out wide to Tierney. This shape is similar to what they’d do this year, but the roles are changed: here, Xhaka is back where Zinchenko would be, ESR is where Xhaka would be, and the full-back is the wide winger:

The full-back wasn’t always there last year, but when he was, ESR was often in this year’s Xhaka role already.

It was also true in the magic moment.

Xhaka is again playing where Zinchenko would play, and he gives the ball to ESR, who is dropping deep. He one-touches it to Tierney on the wing and starts sprinting:

From there, ESR is on his horse in this channel. Auba gets it and one-touches it into the canyon of space. ESR runs it down all the way to the goal, and pays Auba back with an assist:

In that 3-1 win, I needn’t remind you that he also scored himself — with a fox-in-the-box cut on a Saka cross. He’s wonderful at these (he was 99th percentile with 57.5% shots on target), and these two always seem to have a Hale End mind-meld:

Most often, though, his preferred attacking sequences started out wide — in space, on the dribble. Here, he took the defender on 1v1, got him crossed up, and netted it home:

There’s very little question that Smith Rowe would bring a little bit of transitional spark to the position. But what about the other responsibilities?

His performances in the left 8

There was a two-game run that featured Smith Rowe at the LCM spot last year. With a thin team, there are caveats galore, not least of which is that he was probably being rushed back from injury.

Even so, the results were… not great. Although he had a few good moments—including on the high press—here’s a map of his total actions against Liverpool:

Unsurprisingly, the Sambi/ESR/Ødegaard midfield got overrun, with Sambi probably the best performer of the three (and honestly, looking more confident than he did this week against Oxford).

Against the Liverpool press, ESR was simply unable to make himself available to the ball, and eventually lost all 9 of his duels. The issues eventually forced the team into a 4-2-3-1, with a Sambi/Ødegaard double-pivot and ESR as a lone CAM. Watching back reminded me that while Ødegaard can drop back, it’s a misuse of his talents — and he should probably be the more advanced of the midfield trio in almost every case.

The next game at LCM was against Burnley. It was a better performance, with the soon-to-be-relegated side offering up 75% possession. Smith Rowe played a lot freer, with he and Martinelli occasionally arriving to balls at the same time. He was mostly his dynamic self when he just rotated and acted like a winger. Some of the play-it-up-the-middle problems remained, and the incisive moments never wound up in the net. The game ended with a disappointing 0-0.

There are two big reasons to think it could be different this time, and they have names: Partey and Zinchenko.

With all that in tow, let’s summarize our findings.

Why and why not?

Here's where it potentially gets spurious, but let's give it a shot.

🤔 Why ESR in the left-8?

It’s a pretty simple, compelling picture to paint. Imagine Ramsdale getting the ball and looking to immediately set off an attack the other way, and having all of Martinelli, ESR, Jesus/Eddie, Odegaard, and Saka fanning out in front of him. The quick transitional moments would be must-see TV. On top of that, the position offers exciting chances for box-crashing, where ESR excels: it’s the closest thing to a “shadow striker” in the squad. He can be quite good at lane-cutting, and he may have more defensive potential than he’s shown while battling fitness issues.

🤔 Why not?

This picture is straightforward, as well—and perhaps a little more compelling. For one, he didn’t do well in the role last season, and whatever the changes, there are still some responsibilities out of possession and in build-up that aren’t as natural for him.

With current personnel, the spot may not be the best place for ESR’s unique skills to shine. He naturally drifts to the wing and may feel squeezed by Martinelli’s current spot out there. He won’t be quite as comfortable rotating back to the inverted LB position and pinging balls in. He may struggle to double all the way back to cover for Zinchenko when needed.

To date, ESR’s most productive position with Arsenal has been on the left-wing, and whatever happens in the window, he should be in the immediate rotation there. Up the middle, the current responsibilities of the RCM may suit him better than LCM: many of the opportunities remain, while many of the potential issues are sanded down. He won’t have to rotate down with White; he’ll have fewer defensive responsibilities based on physicality; he’ll be able to capitalize on his comfort with Saka; and with Saka liking to pop in early, he may be afforded more wide space as a dribbler. Hopefully his right foot is as cold-blooded over there.

It doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be subbed at LCM to see how he does, or when chasing goals—but perhaps not as the anointed successor.

Arteta seems to agree. In 4-of-6 appearances this year, ESR has replaced Ødegaard on the pitch. In the other two, he came on in the left-wing.

Against Oxford, it was ESR at LW and Martinelli at RW, before ESR moved inside to the RCM spot.

What about Vieira?

After evaluating ESR’s potential in the spot, a stubborn thought kept reappearing: man, Fábio Vieira fits many of these new requirements in the LCM like a glove.

The early signs at Wolves were good. He’s been surprisingly advanced and tireless as a defender, can be plenty dangerous when rotating with Martinelli and Zinchenko, has every kind of pass at his disposal from all three spots, and can crash the box. The only question (outside of ironing out the messiness that exists wherever he plays) is the degree to which he can get back and participate in face-up box defending against good teams. His physical limitations have largely popped up with the ball so far, not without it. But he’s no Xhaka back there. We’ll see.

Before any additions come to the carpet, my current (healthy) depth chart would look something like:

• LW: Martinelli / Smith Rowe

• LCM: Xhaka / Vieira / Smith Rowe

• RCM: Ødegaard / Smith Rowe / Vieira

• RW: Saka / Martinelli / Vieira

If Arsenal were to target a long-term fit for left-8 in the summer, who might be on the list?

Vieira may be the move. But in the event that he’s seen as a positionless player for the long term, let’s get into some speculation. Some quick caveats before we do:

1. As with the near-signing of Douglas Luiz, and the links to Youri Tielemans, there is a solid chance Arsenal targets a hybrid: somebody who can lift technical levels and provide depth across the midfield, before eventually focusing on one of the roles long-term. I think that makes plenty of sense: Caicedo and Tielemans were my two preferred targets this summer. Today we’re just talking the profile we’ve established for the attacking left-8.

2. Yes, Jude Bellingham is the perfect fit for the role. Enzo Fernández isn’t far behind. There is a class of midfielder (including de Jong, Barella, Camavinga, and even SMS) who is Very Expensive and Very Good at All The Things that I won’t include here. If the project and the Champions League appeals to one of ‘em this summer, and Papa Kroenke obliges, sign ‘em up.

3. As far as Declan Rice goes, I project him as a “floating 6,” like Bruno is doing in Howe’s 4-3-3 now: holding the fort but having more rotational coverage than Partey to bomb forward when the time is right. Rice’s unique skills are not fully harnessed in his current box-to-box role. (Edit, June 2023: I’ve updated my thoughts on Rice here after going through a ton of tape. Read Part I and Part II + III of my scouting report here).

4. I don’t really follow the latest transfer news or contract permutations, so if one of the below dudes is totally unavailable, you have my apologies.

5. I’ll probably do one of my made-up stats to rank options in the future. These are just my initial thoughts.

To recap, here are the traits we’re looking for:

• ✅ High-level technicality and movement in the opponent box

• ✅ Creative, diverse range of passes that unsettle defenders and create chances

• ✅ Ability to show danger in all three spots when rotating with LW/inverted LB

• ✅ High pressing intensity

• ✅ Work rate to get back as a “face-up” defender

Here’s a quick list of potential fits in the left-8, in no particular order:

• Dominik Szoboszlai, RB Leipzig: A different player, but one of the few players in Ødegaard’s league in both technicality and work-rate. Plays everywhere as a flexible attacking midfielder, often taking up wing positions, and with experience as a straight-up CM. He’s 98th percentile in shot-creating actions, touches, and tackles in the advanced third. At 6-1, can project well physically as a defender.

• Lovro Majer, Rennes: Perhaps the best Ødegaard clone available. Incredibly slick technically, and earns his comparisons to Modrić (though let’s not get ahead of ourselves). Would do wonders at un-sticking progression and creating goals. Could use more physicality but the work-rate is there (97th percentile goal-creating actions, 93rd percentile tackles in advanced third).

• Mohammed Kudus, Ajax: It’s hard to argue against the fit of a young, hard-working, high-pressing, goal-scoring dynamo who is most comfortable as a 10 but has experience (and genuine productivity) across the wings, as a CM, and as a striker. There are injury concerns, and I personally don’t have enough context on how he’d project in the middle and defensive thirds as a defender. But I’m guessing you watched the World Cup.

• Alexis Mac Allister, Brighton: Gündoğan may be the perfect template for this position, and Mac Allister may be the closest to projecting like him. He’s technical enough to play and score as an advanced 10, but is also a build-up and defensive monster for when games get gritty. I’m still feeling out his full passing range, but his little box movements and passes are ideal.

• Other shouts, kind of in order: James Maddison (that’d be a lot of fun, if a little YOLO), Pedro Gonçalves, Orkun Kökçü, Eberechi Eze, Brais Méndez. Not an exhaustive list. My Olise Fever is so strong that I genuinely think he could even project well here. I will seek help from a doctor if symptoms last for more than a week.

With how he’s performed, and the leadership he offers to the young team, Xhaka has worked himself into any plan for the midterm, if not longer. As the team continues to evolve the roster with young, highly technical, front-foot players at every position, there are many exciting possibilities there — both in and out of house. That said, ESR’s first action may project better at LW and RCM than the Xhaka role for now, but it’ll be interesting to see how it unfolds.

Finally, ESR should get the black boots back.

Be good. And happy grilling.

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