A brief brief on Danilo
Update: in advance of the January window, I’ve since done a much more in-depth scouting report on Danilo here.
It’s the day before deadline day. And as the game comes on, lo and behold: there’s a cavalcade of sources, climbing from the muck to every rung of tierness, speculating about Arsenal’s possible interest in Danilo, the 21-year-old midfielder from Palmeiras.
I’m not the most versed in transfer hype but it does seem like there’s legit interest there. But there are also possible release clauses, club statements, ITK reports, general nonsense speculation, and whether it’s at all possible to get it over the line now (or even later) is still unclear.
Regardless, of one thing I'm certain: something will deem this post a complete waste of time in a matter of hours. I look forward to my reckoning.
That said! Let’s take a look at him. I've been pounding tape, but don't watch as much Série A as many here probably do, so welcome any corrections/clarifications in the comments.
Without further adieu:
🔥 Edu's BBQ: Danilo 🔥
Overview:
Age: 21
Size: 5-9½, 141lb
Team: Palmeiras of Série A (Brazil top tier)
Hair Game: Strong.
Is it that Danilo? No, younger Danilo.
Transfermarkt: £22.5m
Footedness: Left
Positioning: Positioning is exactly perfect for our 6, if a little deeper and less attacking, and not of the exact lone-6 variety. He has the athleticism for other midfield positions (potentially a box to box) but from impressions of the tape, it just feels to me like his whole demeanor and desire is 6-y. See:
Statistical highlights (Série A, 2022):
Editor's Note: I did not double-check any of this.
Defense: High in recoveries per 90, and very high in counter pressing recoveries: 4.6 per 90. Wins 57.89% of defensive duels.
Passing: Good, safe passing accuracy (87.4%). He's in a pretty safe/deep role but isn’t just a back-passer at all -- he passes into the final third and backwards at about the same rate. 5.26 progressive passes/90. Not as ball-dominant as our 6: 38 passes per 90 (Partey is at 52.83, for comparison). Weighted long balls are great.
Attacking: OK amount of shots considering his positioning (1.11/90), mostly (missed) out of the box rips from the right side. Other than that, pretty limited chances in his current spot, so low counting metrics (like assists and key passes). That said, has scored 6 goals out of league this year (Copa Libertadores, Copa do Brasil, etc).
Dribbling: His eye-test shows a lot of dribbling talent but not a lot of dribbling stats this year to back it up (this is my biggest concern). Low success rate of attempted dribbles and offensive duels. There's some conflicting data on this, but what I have: 1.75 attempted dribbles per 90, .67 successful ones.
Impressions after watching a bunch of tape:
The Good (I want to name this section "sometimes maybe good")
He really lights up when there's a chance for a challenge. He runs fast and hard at the guy with the ball and fully commits, and looks good at it. As I said above, while he seems to have talent for positional flexibility, he's got a wrecker core demeanor of a 6.
He is not some rough youthy project, despite his age. He can be really aggressive, but he's now at 61 matches played in Série A, and it shows.
I watched every one of his plays against Chelsea (who was playing full-tilt in the CWC) and the athleticism matches up well to PL. No reason to expect some long physical ramp-up period.
You know how Eddie is a tall-ass 5’9”? Danilo is a big-ass 143lbs (I wonder if that’s up to date). Plays solid and physical, and I wouldn't actually have concerns there.
He pings lofted long balls to sprinting forwards at a really high level. Delivers it right on their lap.
You get a sense of a lot of untapped dribbling and passing potential from his current role. He just doesn't get a ton of progressive-y chances.
The Concerns (I want to name this section "sometimes maybe shit")
I’d have some concerns about his first touches in the PL, but would want to watch more. He has a bit of the heavy touch Gabriel thing where it trickles off his foot and he has to re-control it. That can be overcome in other positions, but scary in this one. That said, he was still very low on stuff like "bad touch leads to goal."
He is aggressive and fully commits when he wants to chase somebody down, but he can be a little lungy. His fouling stats over the course of a season are lower than I would think based on my impressions from watching.
🔥🍗🥩 Final BBQ Verdict 🥩🍗🔥
You can read my full BBQ series on 25 possible targets for DM here. In addition to performance, age, value, etc, I included two made-up stats:
Rodrimiro™: in which a player's skills/stats across four areas (technical, tackling, defense, creativity) are correlated to the two platonic ideals of lone-6'ing
P.C.E. (Passion, Clarity, Energy), which measures and aggregates what Papa Arteta may value in an ideal 6, namely defense, dribbling in tight spaces, and long balls.
Based on all that, his final BBQ came out to 76.22, which puts him 15th for DM's overall and in a tier of guys like Laimer, Paredes, and Carvalho -- lower than I'd expect. I never said I knew what I was doing. There are a few reasons he isn't higher: (1) his stats don't show a lot of creative/dribbling skill (which I had semi-weighted in the model) even if his tape kind of does, (2) his attacking can be more evident out of Série A, where all these stats are based (3) his price is higher than other prospect DM's like Andrey Santos. Mostly, he's just not in a position that racks up playmaking stats.
My take? Impulse is to believe the rumors. He is an Arsenal-ass player with potential elite talent and desire and experience in the role. His long-balls and counterpressing are most intriguing to me, and I have some healthy worries about how the gathering, creativity, and offensive duels will work out. He's a fun watch.
Happy grilling everybody.