Introducing BALLER
Here's a new bullshit stat to rank dozens of potential winger (and hybrid attacker) signings for Arsenal. Filled with analytics, dozens of player profiles, and more. (Plus, let's talk comps)
We’ve got our longest read yet.
But first, let’s talk about something else.
🎥 Let’s talk comps
Comps. “Every action” videos. Clip packages.
So often, our understanding of a new player is shaped (at least partially) through one of these means. I don’t know if anybody considers it to be ideal. But it is efficient. There is just an impossibility of performing considered film study on every player in one league; now multiply that by the hundreds of professional leagues that exist worldwide, and you will see what stands before you is an unconquerable mountain.
This isn’t just a hurdle for the layman. It’s true of any club, really, and many of them have sprawling and well-funded scouting operations.
Here is one compelling argument for the use of data: there are so many fucking players. When I crowed about Basel defender Riccardo Calafiori being the top ‘unwatched’ name flagged by my statistical model back in March 2023, when he was in Switzerland, it wasn’t just a back-pat — which I’m not above, mind you — it was to prove a wider point.
I find the “eye test versus data” debate to be reductive, as these concepts are not on competing axes. One hand washes the other. We should watch as much as we can, keeping our eyes open to what the game is telling us. Meanwhile, we should remember how much we miss, and how our spreadsheets can be wonderful at performing wide-ranging searches for players, calling attention to certain intrigues we may have missed otherwise, all while testing, disproving, or validating our assumptions. This informs our playlist. Then, we watch that.
But it’s still hard to be aware of everybody. You’ve seen how big my lists can get; Calafiori wasn’t exactly alone. After doing a huge LB/LCB list in our last post, I saw Jacob Greaves of Hull City (who looks to be on his way to the newly-promoted Ipswich Town) didn’t make it. I’m not really sure why; he’s good. The new Basel LB/LCB, Renato Veiga, was just acquired by Chelsea for €14m. He was nowhere to be found in my lists, and I’m not sure I’ve seen him kick a football. I watch a silly amount. I don’t catch the Swiss Super League much.
Alas.
👁 What comps can (and can’t) tell us
So how are our impressions formed?
Last year, I wrote a long piece for SCOUTED called Mind Games to investigate the many ways —intuitive, deductive, biased, and otherwise — that we form our assessments. Everybody gets things wrong, sometimes famously so (the story begins with the tale of Ancelotti’s misunderstanding of Thierry Henry) and the best we can do is to a) humbly understand why and b) try to fuck up a little less.
The best way to get our handle on a player is through a long list of diverse, representative games, watched methodologically. These games should span block types, competition levels, and opponents.
You don’t have to take my word for it.
“I always watch games back, whole,” said Rodri in an interview with the Guardian. “Especially if I think there are things that can be done better. I watch them alone. You see lots of things you didn’t see on the pitch. The feeling you have watching it is different to how it felt at the time. I often find that there are things I don’t even remember having happened. I like to analyse the game; not just mine, but the rest of the team.
On a player-level, this should be shaped and buttressed by a comprehensive data profile, both informing and BS-testing our appraisals.
But let’s face it, that’s not always going to happen. Comps exist for a reason. While we may agree that this is not the ideal situation, they do serve a purpose. If you’re reading this, I’d wager you’ve done some comp binge-watching of your own. Don’t stand there and tell me you haven’t typed “Calafori Caliafiori Calafiori” into your YouTube search bar in the past week and let the clips wash over you like the morning sun. This is a safe place.
If they’re going to enter our brains, we should be curious about what they’re telling us, what they’re not telling us, how they are biasing us, and what they may be good at. Think of it as a food label.
Here are some of my thoughts on comps, not all negative:
Comps are often motivated creations. Consider who is making them and why.
YouTube comps vary dramatically in quality, editing, and music. All that may impact our impressions. We are also most swayed by first impressions.
Comps are generally good at showing some of the situations in which a player thrives. While this is dependent on team and league, you can usually get a sense of where and how they look their vibrant best. This is not a small thing. “Tactics” and “balance” are really just about fostering a coherent team identity, understanding your players, and putting them in the situations in which they fare best. If you watched full Jérémy Doku games at Rennes last year, for example, you’d get sensory overload from his brilliance, messiness, vibrance, pure unadulterated potential, and rough edges. His usage at Man City this year is like if Pep just watched comps of his best moments, said, “I’m going to have him do that every single time,” and gave him the platform to do it.
Comps are terrible at demonstrating consistency and proportionality. A player who has shown ten brilliant moments over two years may look better than somebody who does well every single week.
Comps are generally proficient at showing the dribbling and duelling styles of players. The most complete picture you get from a comp may be that of a winger, because their game is so 1v1. You can really get a good feel for their approach, intention, skill, balance, physical traits, and more. This is useful. Out-of-possession, if the search is for a particularly direct, duelly position (like #6 or full-back), you can also get a good idea of how they throw their weight around when in direct combat.
Comps are terrible at showing the understanding and manipulation of space. This can be in attack: How do they pin CBs? How well do their off-ball runs create space for others? You’ll get virtually nothing. But it’s even more stark out-of-possession. The huge majority of a player’s defensive impact is not in tangible “actions” that are dutifully marked in a scorecard. I once saw a comp of every action that Sporting CP’s Ousmane Diomande made in one game, and he looked like a combination of Virgil van Dijk and John Stones. I decided to watch the full match, and he lost his man at the far post twice, and was essentially responsible for both goals his team conceded. Neither was marked as an “action” by any statistical service. This is not really a knock on the player: I’m still high on him, and he was 19 at the time, so such a thing would be fully expected. But we should always remember how things are skewed.
Flashy dribblers and top ball-strikers will come off best. It is what it is.
That said, “all action” compilations, while better, have their own biases. Let’s say you pull a list of every attacking duel by Vini Jr, Osimhen, and Declan Rice. They may underrate all three players for various reasons:
~65% of Vini’s “attacking duels” will be fails. As brilliant as the other stuff will be, when pulled from the wider game context and emotion, it may ware you down, and you may incorrectly get the sense that he’s too aggressive or direct. He’s not. He runs shit, and I think he’d actually lose effectiveness if he was more “efficient.”
A player like Osimhen will not have a lot of flashy moments in his attacking duels. His real “duel” is off-ball (and uncharted); when he has the ball, he’s often trying to get a shot off before a duel even happens. Direct take-ons just aren’t really his game, and that’s fine.
Especially as a deeper DM, Rice is really only engaged in an attacking duel when he’s in a jam. A reel of his attacking duels will then show him in a lot of difficult circumstances. This is true of a lot of CBs and FBs too.
It’s hard to ascertain too much of a player’s “mental profile” from a comp, though clues are perhaps on offer. Psychology is a science and a discipline and a profession and a trade. Thank heavens that prescriptions aren’t written off a smattering of YouTube clips. As a wider point, I think one should have their bullshit monitors properly attuned whenever some broadcaster or internet addict starts making sweeping statements about a professional athlete’s mental state. It’s casual inferences or worse. But that’s a post for another time.
So there you have it: comps, “all action” reels, and highlight packages all have their place, but we must keep them in that place. We have to be aware of what they are (and aren’t) telling us, what shortcuts we’re using, and the pitfalls along the way. Mental sanitation, you know.
And guess what? We’ll probably get better, but we’ll still fuck up a lot. Joy.
Onto the attackers.
🧐 The problem to address with a signing
Despite scoring a lot of goals and finishing top-3 in xG, there are questions across the Arsenal frontline — apart from Bukayo Saka, at least.
The questions begin with the likely departures of Hale Enders Eddie Nketiah, Emile Smith Rowe, and Reiss Nelson. From there, queries multiply. Gabriel Jesus is a bonafide star in a current state of flux, both positionally and health-wise; Gabriel Martinelli had a disappointing year and will look to resume his trajectory; Leandro Trossard was pivotal to the campaign, but is 29 and isn’t a prototypical winger; Fábio Vieira wasn’t able to offer any clarity this year; we are sure that Kai Havertz will start, we’re pretty sure where he’ll start, but he still offers an enigmatic quality that may offer up more surprises; even Ethan Nwaneri may make anywhere from 0 or 25 appearances next year.
Anything can happen. With so many options on offer, I like to start with some form of a problem definition, and to do so, I return to 5 Ways to Improve Arsenal, in which we outlined the areas of emphasis for the summer.
Here’s the TL;DR of that piece:
Improve Plan B (on the left)
Increase risk tolerance in the middle
Boost team speed
Add ball-striking
A few more big passes
That seems to suggest a lot of what we need to know for this. The shorter version is this: Bayern knocked Arsenal out of the Champions League because Bayern had more world-class attackers than Arsenal. Gnabry and Sané eventually had their breakthroughs. It could have been another all the same.
As a supporting point, there was a lot of squad inefficiency and bloat in Jürgen Klopp’s final two years at Liverpool. But there was one aspect I felt they got right: the footballing world writ large, and the Premier League specifically, is a battle of attrition. There is no environment in the world in which players are expected to run so fast or so far. There is international duty every few weeks, it seems. There is no offseason. There are more subs, but defenders never seem to come off. Games often reach 100 minutes.
As such, having an abundance of attackers (hopefully of the fast, shot-hounding variety) seems extra useful in this day and age. Late goals are at a peak. I see every reason for that to continue in the years ahead.
Where to start?
🎯 The profile to target
I will repeat myself (and Amy):
You want to target a player for the immediate opportunity — but not just the immediate opportunity. The player should align with a stable overarching footballing vision, and, like visions of sugarplums, there should be multiple deployments of the player bouncing around in our heads. This isn’t just how you succeed. This is how you risk-proof your investments.
This was laid out well in a typically-brilliant piece about Kai Havertz by Amy Lawrence in The Athletic. The examples are everywhere.
“Ben White was ostensibly a centre-half but has been remoulded into a marauding right-back. Takehiro Tomiyasu plays anywhere across the defensive line. Jurrien Timber can do that, too. Oleksandr Zinchenko is the signature hybrid. Bukayo Saka used to play anywhere on the left flank and now is established as a right-winger. Declan Rice has the fanbase continually debating whether he should be more of a No 6 or a No 8, when they are not thanking their lucky stars they have him in their No 41 shirt. Gabriel Jesus can usually be found scurrying around far deeper or wider than a traditional striker.”
Here are the parameters I’ve laid out. A job description of sorts.
Required
At least one standout/additive physical/dynamic quality
Minimum one of the following, but ideally both:
Electric pace; can foreseeably be an in-behind threat against mid-blocks
Genuine gravitas and success in isolated 1v1 take-ons
Ability to perform in more than one attacking position; could start at one wing for an entire, title-winning season
Ready for Champions League minutes
The foundation of being a top-5-to-10 in their position in the world, even if uncertain
Preferred
High-level ball-striking
Hold width with minimum help
Comfortable with both feet or true ambipedal
General playmaking and crossing
High defensive work-rate
When in doubt
Target the most impressive base profile
From there, here’s how that turned into a ranking:
✅ Run a wide search: I pulled a list of 255 attackers worldwide between the ages of 18-30 and worth more than €5m on Transfermarkt (though I manually added a few).
✅ Pull attributes: I grabbed 10+ different relevant attributes for this list of players, mostly from Wyscout. I also made personal assessments on speed and running power.
✅ Group quantitative measures (60%): Dribbles (success and quantity), carries, attacking duels per 90, shots (npxG, quality, etc), shot creation, passes/crosses into the penalty area, advanced tackles, age, minutes played, as well as some aggregate underlying statistics from other providers (like FotMob) to give a base.
✅ Add my bullshit (40%): I have personal, subjective rankings based on viewing them all to varying degrees (some very much, some very little). This includes: potential, ball-striking, flexibility, speed, dynamism. There’s probably a lot of noise here because I’m not able to watch every player the same amount.
✅ Adjustments: There are modifiers for age and league.
Other notes:
I have to remove players for a few different (and subjective) reasons: perceived unavailability, cost, etc. This part is always going to be a bit of a crapshoot.
This is not the striker list. That’s BEAST.
I’ve decided not to directly weigh left or right wing experience more heavily; the same with footedness. You may disagree, but it’s a cloudy picture:
In isolation, direct Saka cover is a must. In reality, there isn’t much opportunity for a “purer” RW to accumulate, and there is both some existing positional cover at RW (in Jesus, Martinelli, Vieira, Nwaneri, Trossard) and in left-footed attackers (Vieira, Havertz, Ødegaard, Nwaneri).
At LW, there is more direct opportunity, but also better depth (Martinelli, Trossard, Jesus).
If ESR goes, there is also a case for a right-footer being more necessary for use in the attacking midfield spot (with Ødegaard and Vieira already there, and Nwaneri on the way).
As such, I settled on just directing the search toward the best possible profile. If anything, I might lean slightly left-wing (no comments, please), because the opportunity is greater, all three of Martinelli, Trossard, and Jesus can be effective elsewhere, and Jesus/Trossard are 27+.
I’m sure I forgot or undervalued people. I can’t watch everyone. Remember, you decided to read this, not me.
Summary: we are simply looking for the highest-potential winger or hybrid attacker to add to the side. They should be highly pacey (ideally in-behind) and demonstrate the potential to be dominant in 1v1s; if they aren’t superlative in one of those two areas, they must be in the other. It can be early in their journey, but they should be ready to fight for real minutes, and flexible across 2-3 frontline positions. This is all still subjective and there are just too many players and options to do this methodically.
Onto the ranks.
⚽️ Presenting BALLER
Here are the leaders in Bursty Attacker Launching Liberally Expansive Rotation, or BALLER.
Who is above this list?
With such a flexible profile (including players at high-10, LW, RW, and ST), there are so many to comb through. As such, I pulled some names from the top of the list. Here’s how they worked out.
In order:
Rafael Leão, Milan
Jamal Musiala, Bayern München
Rodrygo, Real Madrid
Federico Valverde, Real Madrid
Darwin Núñez, Liverpool
Alexander Isak, Newcastle United
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Napoli
Mathys Tel, Bayern München
Anthony Gordon, Newcastle United
Bradley Barcola, PSG
Randal Kolo Muani, PSG
Raphinha, Barcelona
To answer your next question, Saka would be #1 (his underlyings present one of the few-best campaigns at any position in world football) and Martinelli would be #7 (buoyed by his speed and carries).
There are a lot of nine-figure names in that list. I’d personally be interested in flinging a €75m offer for Tel, who is a near-perfect example of what I’d look to add to this team: explosive, readyish, LW/ST, 1v1, striking, everything. But that all feels unlikely.
Onto the real list.
🔦 1. Nico Williams
[Edit: Ha, ha. On this day of posting, James McNicholas of The Athletic has reported that “If Arsenal are to sign a wide player, Nico Williams would be Arteta’s preference.” Please don’t consider this section prescient or anything — this is a fairly obvious choice, and he’s been at the top here for months. Please also don’t think I changed this rank today to align with the news; I will produce drafts if I have to.]
➡️ Why?
I doubt you’re surprised here.
I’ll start with a quick recap of some Nico Williams takes over the last few months.
Nico Williams was always #2 on my winger rankings after Olise (via “Sakanelli score”). With the additions of Havertz/Trossard, I’d weight the playmaking stuff less and the speed/dribbling/scoring potential more, so I’m sure he’d be an easy #1.
It's not consistently there yet, but Nico Williams has so much unlocked potential as a finisher. Both feet, every speed, all manner of different types of hit -- gotta be unsettling for a GK. Just so exciting.
Every striker has an asterisk or two (cost, style, peak potential, readiness ... or any combination thereof). Most of the potential midfield targets do too. Nico Williams? I dug deeper. I still got nothing. He’s perfect.
July:
Players are often said to be flexible if they can fill multiple spots in the lineup sheet. But there is flexibility/modulation *within* roles. I love Nico Williams because even just at LW, he can do 2-3 distinct roles well. Playmaker, runner, shot-hound, etc.
As you’ve likely seen in the Euros, it’s hard to create good counterarguments for Williams. He is fast, direct, committed, skilled, ambipedal, playmakery, and as of late — highly productive. He can play across both wings — well — and can play a lot of different subsets of roles depending on what you need on the day. I like him on the counter-press and his energy levels never seem to dip.
➡️ Why not?
There are still inconsistencies in his game. Here’s a speed round:
He’s a good dribbler with a lot of ambition and different moves, but the ball isn’t necessarily always glued to his foot.
His pure playmaking can vacillate between brilliant and confusing/haphazard. It sometimes feels like he can preordain his decisions.
His ball-striking has a high peak but there are still the Row Z shots.
He may presently cross too much, actually.
He has all the physical gifts to be a full outlet threat but sometimes it feels like he likes the ball so much that he wants to stay close to it instead of bursting away.
But let’s face it. The “why not” is really about his personal agency: where he decides to go, and the wages he’ll ask for along the way.
🔦 2. Eberechi Eze
➡️ Why?
Articles about players are peppered with general praise from teammates and coaches alike. Everybody is a “Top lad. Great player.” After all, what is the incentive for saying otherwise?
To actually cull some meaningful nuggets, you have to look for more specificity. Go through a list of articles about Eze and you’ll find it. Permeating throughout is a radiating plea of people close to him, a sense of “no, you don’t understand what I’ve seen” — all while offering a real affection for the player himself.
I loved this interview with Joel Lynch, who made over 400 appearances overall, and was Eze’s veteran teammate at QPR. Here’s a longer excerpt:
“The way he has grown and the way he is now, you can tell how he is so completely different to so many other young players … He was a brilliant player before he went (on loan) but when he came back he was just a different animal. It was just mad. I don't know what happened to him but when he came back he was unbelievable, just a completely different player. Every bit of his game was better. He literally came back our best player. He was miles above the rest really. The way he carries himself is perfect. If any young lad coming through the game wants to look at a player it would be him, he's the prime example of how to be a professional. He's a class act.”
He added:
“I just wouldn't go near him," he adds. “He'd just do some madness and try and nutmeg me.”
I find Eze to be one of the easier-to-appreciate players in the world. I’ve seen people beat Declan Rice before, but I’m not sure I’ve seen others confuse him on the tackle. Eze had him late-lunging all over the place.
When we go through the list of ways for Arsenal to improve, Eze is additive to a lot of them. He has a high degree of risk tolerance (and skill) through the middle, can be a dangerous dribbler (riding challenges easily) or a retentive one, and has all kinds of ideas that can unsettle a block. He’s great at creating shots for himself (3.59 shots/90), has a good swing, and will be able to start in 3-4 positions across the frontline and you’d be happy every time you see him the sheet. There are no indications that he wouldn’t succeed under the Champions League lights.
He was Arsenal and he still feels Arsenal.
➡️ Why not?
The issue with Eze is actually hinted at in that interview with Lynch, when he said this about the attacker: “It was almost like he ran quicker with the ball than he did without.”
Now, that’s a nice compliment, but it shows how Eze doesn’t perfectly align with the specific need of the day. He is not slow, but he is no stretch winger — he wants to have the ball at his feet, and doesn’t demonstrate the burst to lose a good full-back in behind, or drive down the touchline without a Kyle Walker gaining ground. I have no doubt he could be a good winger at Arsenal, and will offer immediate improvement to that left side, but it may push too many of his extraordinary talents too far from goal and strip him of some of his liveliness. Inserting him directly in the left-8 spot may result in some balance issues elsewhere, and you don’t necessarily want him floating down into the pivot to spur progression (that would probably fall to Ødegaard, which has its own tradeoffs).
You also never feel great about an Achilles rupture. But he seems to be all the way back athletically, which is the primary concern.
In summary:
He clears the “do you want this flexible player at your club for five years?” test with ease. He clears the “does he solve the immediate problem before us?” test with less room.
Every “perfect” option is 100m+.
The rest have some trade-offs.
I find myself quite comfortable with those of Eze.
🔦 3. Mohammed Kudus
➡️ Why?
We want top speed, great dribbles, and ball-striking.
Kudus is fast as hell, led Europe in successful-take ons (!), and hits the shit out of the ball.
Arsenal struggled against mid-to-high-blocks this year. Here’s a pretty textbook example of how to break one of those.
Before the season, I did a lot of watching of him back at Ajax and Ghana, which culminated in this thread. The basic takeaway is that defensive midfielders are overburdened in modern man-to-man presses, which is why a player like Casemiro ages quickly. The nicest benefit of a player like Kudus (or Eze) is when you can separate your lines in build-up (Havertz and wingers very high, back-four very low) and expand the space in the middle third of the park for Kudus to drag a full-back or directly take on a Rodri or Mainoo. You can also have him scoop up the balls that come down off a player like Havertz.
In the past, he looked like he strongly preferred the ball to his feet, but his year under Moyes seemed to really refine his off-ball runs (both in volume and quality).
For this, I watched his outlet work at LW and felt good about what I saw. He can really stretch the game, and not just with the ball.
He is electric.
➡️ Why not?
Outside of cost, there are three reasons to stray from Kudus:
Location of losses: He’s at his best when he’s trying to take on players anywhere, any time. This worked at West Ham because they needed their attacks to be as immediate and high-threat as possible, and they always had players back in the event of a central loss. This would not be the case at Arsenal, where a central loss is more easily punished. The team was very adverse to this in 2023-2024.
Positional fit: There can be an argument that his positional profile is a little too overlappy with Saka, Ødegaard, and Nwaneri. As a RW, he won’t find enough time behind Saka; as an attacking midfielder, he may lose the ball in dangerous areas a little too much.
Playmaking: He hasn’t yet flexed an elite ability to play in others around the box.
He’s also got a bit of an injury history, but it doesn’t seem to be perfectly linear or recurring.
🔦 4. Xavi Simons
➡️ Why?
Long-time readers will know how colossal of a fan of Simons I am.
He’s been on quite the tear. He just turned 21-years-old and has logged 52 G+A in the last two seasons (across competitions), all while having an enormous responsibility in progression, and not always being close to goal. He had twice as many carries into the final third as anyone in the sample, even Saka (133 to 68). He is free advancement.
On top of that, he is whip-fast and active in the duel, and loves the football. He’s a gorgeous striker of the ball, and while he has an array of finishes to choose from, his best one is a simple, low-lift blast that can generate a surprising amount of power. I think he’s actually got the Foden spin-and-blast thing in his future, too.
He passes the flexibility test (with some notes, which we’ll get to later), and keeps betting on himself and being proven right.
➡️ Why not?
It’s all about fit and balance. He is small, and has a similar playing brain to Ødegaard (tricky, creative, high-IQ, manipulative, relatively small-space) but with different tools (more drive, smaller, more transitional, and more carrying than passing). As such, a midfield three of Rice-Ødegaard-Simons is plenty talented but doesn’t feel perfectly balanced. On the wing, he’s not a real Doku-style dribbler, and doesn’t look to get behind the line much without the ball — he’s best used in a Silva-style “false winger” capacity, which is nice, but isn’t necessarily what Arsenal are sorely lacking right now. Some of his limitations there have shown up in the Euros, where he needs better surrounding circumstances and more freedom to be effective. My concern is basically about how this ties up resources that could be more additive elsewhere.
All that said, I see very little risk with his overall production and quality, and this, like Eze, becomes a very high-floor signing (though one dependent on outgoings). He’s just so young, so progressive, and creates so many goals. You’ll always find a place for him.
🔦 5. Marcus Rashford
➡️ Why?
I can feel your look right now. Hear me out.
At his best, Rashford is a lab-creation of a signing. He has things that other players do not have and can not get. He offers the exact transitional threat, fear factor, and ball-striking that puts Arsenal over the hump and secures those final Champions League games. When your team isn’t at their best, he can create an odd yard of separation with a little shake and pull a goal out of nothing (as we know too well). He can also offer specific help against the mid-blocks that bedevil this side.
He is above-average when bringing the ball up with pace, is a good 1v1 threat, and is probably an underrated crosser. His best spot is fairly clear (LW) but he can still show quality elsewhere.
There are differences, but there is also much in common with the story of Kai Havertz — much-maligned, stripped of confidence, though clearly at the highest physical levels — and it’s hard to imagine a better “I can fix him” option than this. He’s faced a lot of weird, disproportionate, often-racist bullshit over the years, and the dynamics around him have been absolutely terrible. I don’t think the tactical solutions are that hard to find in a top side.
➡️ Why not?
We can count a few:
This calculation takes a €60m value in mind, but that’s only the half of it. Manchester United will drive a hard bargain (if at all), and his wages are huge. If that doesn’t dramatically change, this moves from “intelligent gamble” to “going all-in,” which would be awfully hard to defend given the risk factor.
It’s difficult to make a pure statistical argument — especially at huge cost — for Rashford based on last year (even based on nerdier underlyings). To give a peek behind the curtain: my personal (qualitative) ratings are lifting him up, and the numbers (specifically around value and risk) pulling him down.
It can be argued that he hasn’t consistently demonstrated the non-negotiables. I solemnly believe that the criticism has been disproportionate, Twitter-fuelled, and highly charged. When you are looking for something with laser-eyes in football, you will generally find it: the lapse, the lazy moment, the mistake. But he definitely does do some walking out-of-possession, and has fallow months — which you’d like to think will change in a new environment, particularly Arteta’s. But you can’t bet your house on it.
So many of the questions are interpersonal. We’re not really equipped to make them from our vantage point.
He’s 26, which means it may be hard to recoup transfer value near the end of his tenure.
In terms of pure profile, he may be first. In terms of proportionate risk mitigation, he drops. It’s all ultimately unlikely.
I don’t like “appeal to authority” biases, and don’t think we should blindly support every move Edu and Arteta make, despite their track record. But I do think that if Arteta comes out of a series of meetings with Rashford (armed with Edu’s big research documents) and wants Rashford, we should feel pretty good about it.
🔦 6. Karim Adeyemi
➡️ Why?
Adeyemi is one of the fastest players in the world and is not unproven. He just helped lead his side to the Champions League final.
If you’re after a robust, flexible, transitional threat — one who can make some of the game’s best athletes look ordinary — then Adeyemi may be the one for you. Here’s his neat trick: he simply runs past you, gets the ball, and drives it toward the goal.
He may present the ideal positional profile, as well. He’s left-footed but very comfortable with both. It’s almost even-money as to where he is most effective, though you’d probably lean LW based on the evidence. Perfect, in my book.
He’s genuine striker depth (he has some poachery instincts in the box, and is experienced as a 9), is still young (22), and has a lot of fun close-control moves, especially in messy, uncertain situations. I tend to think he projects well aerially. His tools may be the best of anyone here.
➡️ Why?
He’s got a couple of issues working against him. A lot of it comes down to pure inconsistency. He is not the most repeatable in his 1v1 approaches in settled situations. Like a Mudryk, he doesn’t necessarily have a degree of intent, tempo, and dominance in a one-on-one that will confuse and unsettle the opponent past the physical traits (though he is an “improver,” and shows flashes all the time). If he’s expecting contact, he can ride challenges, but if not, he can get thrown off the ball (he’s not small or huge). I haven’t been wowed by his playmaking. And there’s the biggest knock against him in this calculation: there are a lot of scuffed shots in his tape, and not a lot of screamers from range. There also just aren’t quite enough shots there.
🔦 7. Pedro Neto
➡️ Why?
How does this heat map look to you?
Quite nice.
These crosses look good:
And so do these dribbles:
Neto is an otherworldly blend of some of the best qualities of Martinelli (bursting pace down the line, power-carries) and Saka (thoughtful crosses). He is a true threat from both sides and is ideal depth, and prior to some … interruptions … he was firmly in the conversation with Foden and Saka. My big-brain idea is that you can even have him overlapping Saka as a “RWB” against particularly low-blocks; he’s done that kind of thing before.
As far as active pressing and threatening pace down the line, he’s a near-ideal fit.
➡️ Why not?
You know what I’m about to say. It’s the injuries.
I said this about England’s squad composition and its dependency on Shaw:
At a certain point, pinning your hopes on a player known for their lack of availability graduates from “unlucky” to “malpractice.” As an Arsenal supporter, I speak with expertise on the matter.
This was not a case against signing players who have been injured. That’s impossible. It is a case around pinning your team’s central identity around a single player who has a history, and not putting countermeasures in place. In previous iterations, this may mean Partey, Zinchenko, or Jesus.
But injuries are complex,, and most of us aren’t qualified to speak at great length about their impacts. In the defender piece, I gave you a preview of what I think here.
Nuno Mendes is like his compatriot Pedro Neto: he is the perfect profile to sign, but is almost purely an injury inquisition. As such, take this ranking with a grain of salt. You and I can simply wave a white flag to the Information Asymmetry Gods and admit that the clubs have more to work with than us.
I don’t think Neto is fundamentally unsignable. I do think at a certain budget (say, €65m+), one must expect him to be a reliable starter, and one cannot really do that. The risk must be priced in. At €40-45 or so, it becomes a thoughtful gamble with outsized rewards, and there are backup plans. I like that a whole lot better.
Outside of the price, Neto has one other issue: he doesn’t really generate enough shots or goals. It’s not a tiny thing given what is needed.
💡 Other possibilities
It’s time for the speed round.
Moussa Diaby (Aston Villa) offers obvious upside. He was able to adjust to the Premier League with ease, and his pace and power can play anywhere (and on either wing). If he stayed chugging at his current level, that is just fine, but he has a lot of inside-forward and output possibilities that have to be attractive to Arteta. There may still be a late-blooming superstar in there.
I’ll be honest. I don’t really know where to put Leroy Sané (Bayern Munich), mostly based on his wages. He’s still only 28 and had a low-output finish to the season, but on net, he was one of the world’s most productive wingers, and he sure looks like he has a sprint in him (let’s not talk about it). His technical proclivities may lend him to aging gracefully — he’s not just a speed merchant — and may do some interesting things on the inside later on.
Jack Clarke (Sunderland) may be a surprise this high. I graded him well on many of the subjective parts of the evaluation, and the numbers back it up: he led the Championship with 148/276 dribbles (53.6%) — averaging more successful dribbles per 90 than Vini — and can just constantly bring the ball up with ease. I think he has a lot of little details right, is fast enough, and can figure it out at the next level. See for yourself. (His volume defending numbers are good but I can’t say I’m fully versed on his outlook there. I’ll watch more.)
Kamaldeen Sulemana (Southampton) is a maxed-out version of many of the qualities you seek. I think he’s one of the faster players in the world, was one of the most successful dribblers in the world in France, and his immediate moves, unpredictability, and burst can make the best defenders fall down. He can also play across the wings, and you can easily see him be deployed in a Doku role, running directly at people to make things happen. The problem is that he’s just got the Mudryk Thing at the present: bouncy touches, inconsistent technique (leading to shots going every which way), and late/awkward final actions. If this can be improved, you have something unique. Here’s a chart I love from his time in Ligue 1:
I shoehorned Désiré Doué (Rennes) into my “PWR” rankings, saying he was “My fave attacking midfield prospect, bar none. Actually it might be Arda Güler. Whatever.” He’s played mostly on the wing this year and is a take-on artist who can deal with a shove. Stephen at SCOUTED has a lovely piece on him that outlines his many bristling strengths, but shows how the the Premier League may be a big adjustment (it’s slowwwww in France). He’s got an absolutely special technical and physical base.
Johan Bakayoko (PSV) is the player you chose if you’re looking to budget-replicate as much of Saka’s skillset as you can. He’s a smart, cerebral, productive winger who has a lot of nice physical characteristics but mostly just wants to do the right thing.
I put my thumb on the scale for Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford). You can always surprise a colleague by mentioning Mbeumo’s age (he’s 24). He’s quite mature, technical, and marauding, and I like the idea of throwing him on against tired defenders — he runs, pounces on mistakes, and slots them home with a lot of power. He’d also be one of the top players for running off of long-balls to Havertz.
Loïs Openda (Leipzig) is really more of a striker, but I included him here just because he fits the bill of a player who is at elite levels of runny, duelly, dribbly, and goal-hungry. I wouldn’t feel too great about him as a pure winger unless it was in a transitional setting; I’d like to see he and Havertz performing a partnership late in games. There’s also a configuration where the midfielder drops low, the full-back goes high, and the LW becomes the shadow-striker. That’d be interesting for Openda.
In January I mentioned that I was “trying to dutifully identify strikers who are ready to make a real impact for Arsenal, but stuck in a loop of watching the lanky, hyper-fast, 6-1', not fully ready, but oh-so-interesting 21-year-old Maximilian Beier.” He’s exploded with some more goals since. He’d have to be an Isak-style transition wing but he offers a really great 1v1 approach, so I wouldn’t write it off completely. As much as I balk at fans saying a player like Vieira has to bulk up, I think it’s true with Beier — he’d be well-served to put on some weight and settle in at striker.
I’d checked out Jaden Philogene (Hull City) a bit before, but this was my first medium-dive. I came away so impressed. He can offer a little bit of everything: run, associate, score, cross. His statistical blueprint seems to support that conclusion. I think he’s ready for the Premier League.
It is thought that Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton) had a down year but I didn’t really see it, outside of goal variance. He upped his shots, successful dribbles, and carries, all while driving into the box more and losing the ball less. He may have a slightly lower peak than others (he’s 27) but he’s on the general level.
Armand Laurienté (Sassuolo) is one of the best dribblers in Europe. He’s learned by doing, attempting 275 in the last two seasons. He hasn’t been in the best situation and some of his underlying numbers are lackluster on a relegated side. But pop on the television, and it doesn’t take long to see him do something special.
Leon Bailey (Aston Villa) is fast, a good positional fit, and “Premier League proven.” He racked up successful dribbles and carries, and it sure felt to me like his 19 G+A season went under the radar.
Jarrod Bowen (West Ham) is possibly the closest thing on the market to a Trossard-style signing. He’s younger than I thought (I thought 29, but he’s 27) and has a long track record of Premier League production. You’d never be dissatisfied to see him snag a start, come on late, or get hot and lock down a position for a bit.
One of the players I felt most indecisive about was Federico Chiesa (Juventus). I wrote him off before this exercise for the basic reasons — ‘he lost his burst after the ACL’ — but I threw on the tape and, I don’t know, there’s something still there and it may be fully undervalued. He does a lot of smart things in and around the box and can be used at either wing or striker, and Italy is not the athletic leap it used to be: it’s probably the second-fastest in the world right now, so things can translate. At 25-40m, I may be interested.
Simon Adingra (Brighton) is a floor-raiser who could turn into a ceiling-raiser. He makes a lot of sense on paper: age (22). Premier League experience, good on both feet, fast, quality, almost equally good on both sides (at least in my viewing). I do find myself wondering if he has that final gear (or dribbling nous) to be a proper Champions League level-raiser.
Mykhailo Mudryk (Chelsea) probably hasn’t been the disaster he’s been made out to be, and I tend to think his situation has played a large part in that. He’s a speed demon lacking in tactical nous and technical consistency. Could Arteta take this and turn some of those 75s and 80s up to 95s? I wouldn’t rule it out.
It’d be hard to argue too forcefully against an Antonio Nusa (Club Brugge) signing). He’s got everything to some degree, and Belgium is my preferred place to find attackers these days — the league does such a great job of preparing them for the next step. The problem is that he’s 19 and should be getting as many minutes as he possibly can.
Crysencio Summerville (Leeds) had a huge season, being named the Championship’s Player of the Season. He racked up the goals, was direct, and was the “main character” on the pitch every time I watched him. The statistical profile is a little higher than I am. When you catch full-90s you’ll see a lot of little inefficiencies in the game, and they’re enough to to sap some of the value for me (I’d imagine he’s fairly expensive this year).
There were quizzical links to Edon Zhegrova (Lille) at some point a couple years back, and I’ve always had my second eye on him since. He’s got an extremely clean dribbling style that displays itself in quick, decisive detonations. He’s one of the highest-volume dribblers in Europe, and I like his crosses too. The question is just how much of that can port over: I see him as quicker than fast.
It may be a little early for Julien Duranville (Borussia Dortmund) — I pulled a good few “prospect wingers” from this list, but not him. There’s something already-refined there.
Brajan Gruda (Mainz) doesn’t offer the true outlet threat, but he might be something really special in terms of tight control (including strength), power-carries, and ball-striking. At 19, he's got more successful take-ons per 90 than Kvara, Rafael Leão, or Nico Williams.
One of the only players to get the best of William Saliba was Elye Wahi (Lens). He’s more of a striker than a wide attacker.
Francisco Conceição (Porto) is #actually good. Speaking of comps, I first came across him in a “Young Messi” comp that made the rounds when he was at the youth level, dribbling around everybody. His carrying and dribbling numbers are top-notch and he has a lot of little moves to unsettle opposing full-backs and get the ball into the box, as we’ve seen in the Euros. He’s also quick.
Omar Marmoush (Eintracht Frankfurt) is a personal fave. He is not a pure take-on artist, but has a lot of the other things we’d be looking for: game intelligence, manipulation, outright pace, goal hunger, flexibility across the line, mature interplay, and output. He may just be a striker but in any case, his experience there (in various formations) has helped his ability to make runs in-behind. He’d be a killer box-crasher from wide areas.
I’ll say this about a few players from this point on, but Matìas Soulé (Frosinone/Juventus), is the right player for somebody, but not necessarily us.
I liked Ademola Lookman (Atalanta) when he was at Leicester. Losing his profile was a big reason they went down, if I remember correctly. He’s since had his breakout, scoring 24 league goals in the last two years, playing flexible roles across the frontline and showing off his skills, culminating in a brilliant, clutch hat-trick to deliver Leverkusen their only loss of the year. On top of that, I have a little stat to show which teams would foster the easiest adjustment period to an Arsenal, and Atalanta is high up on the list.
Nicolás González (Fiorentina) would raise the floor, but maybe not the ceiling. He’s flexible, fast, duelly, and wins lot of aerials for a winger. He’s shown up awfully high in previous versions of these ranks, and Fiorentina is another club who have a high “adaptability score” to Arsenal. The question is just about his take-on ability and whether he has that final level of quality to be an Arsenal regular.
Another one of those intriguing LW/ST shouts is Amine Gouiri (Rennes).
I expected Carlos Forbs (Ajax) to look more loose based on his rotational playing time since joining Ajax from Manchester City, but instead, I really liked what I saw in how he attacks opponents and runs downhill at them. This rating gave a priority to pace and ball-striking and he’s got both.
João Pedro (Brighton) is a penalty merchant, it’s true. What else is true is that he’s a vibrant attacker who can play multiple roles (ST, CAM, LW) and never look out of place, all while doing well on aerials and advanced duels. A case could be made that he’d offer a younger, Jesus-style impact, but I ultimately think it’s an awkward fit.
Our old pal Donyell Malen (Dortmund) offers the speed and goals we’re looking for. I’m not too crazy about his take-on style, aerial non-impact, or his chance creation for others.
Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad) is a lovely player, but for another club. He’d be locked in behind the Ødegaard/Saka duo, and doesn’t carry too many differentiators from their profiles.
Antoine Semenyo (Bournemouth) had a lot of really great moments last year.
Marcus Edwards (Sporting CP) is almost there. I personally see him as more of a mid-table starter, which is no shame.
Viktor Tsygankov (Girona) is a bit like Nicolás González in that he seems to be above-average at everything. I think he can make it in the Premier League.
Barış Yılmaz (Galatasaray) offers the Liverpool route. He’d be an intoxicating player to throw on against tired legs late in matches, and he’s as fast as they come. I’m not sure he offers the refinement in advanced possession that you’d want out of a player who can challenge to start. But the vibes would be immaculate.
Andreas Skov Olsen (Club Brugge) is ready for a move and gives you a lot to work with in terms of pace, power, and production (especially on carries down the line). I think he’s right on the edge of the level but not quite there.
Other players and omissions
Players who didn’t have outright pace or pure wide 1v1 ability didn’t fare well or were removed. This includes a lot of good players like Dani Olmo, Lee Kang In, Alex Baena, Oihan Sancet, and the like. I am intrigued by them all but wouldn’t start them at the wing at Arsenal, so I just consider it a different search.
Going down this list, there is a point where I’d be really interested in doing a big-brain, actual conversion of a full-back. The names on my list for that are Alphonso Davies, Alejandro Balde, Jeremie Frimpong, and João Cancelo. I think they are more talented footballers than almost everybody on this list.
I saw there have been some recent links to Yáser Asprilla (Watford). He’s somewhere in the #45-#60 zone (it gets uncertain because I didn’t add any eye-test stuff down there) and has a nice hybrid profile for a player his age. I’m excited by the little I’ve seen of him — smarts, striking, control — but I’m not sure he gets the minutes he needs here, or represents an immediate qualitative improvement over a Reiss Nelson.
Mohamed Daramy (Reims) just missed the cut and I like what I’ve seen of him plenty.
No, I don’t know what to do with João Félix at this point, either. I think that ship has sailed, and in any case, he doesn’t fare well on the 1v1 or wide-winger numbers.
Another player I don’t know what do with is Jota (of Al-Ittihad, previously of Celtic). He’s previously fared quite well in my rankings but has had a confusing spell in Saudi Arabia.
I also pulled Georginio Rutter (Leeds) and Joshua Zirkzee (Bologna) from the list. I’m not sure if that’s the right call, but I just consider that a different positional search.
I ultimately pulled some prospects from this list because I think we need somebody who can play this year, and I think the following names are all ~one year off: Assane Diao (Real Betis) is messy for now (he’s 18) but there’s almost nobody with a better foundation than him … Andreas Schjelderup (Benfica) was really high up on this list before I yanked him. He just needs that year (or two) at Benfica but he’s got tekkers, speed, and goals in him … Dilane Bakwa (Strasbourg) unfortunately looks like a good move from Clearlake, those fuckers … Wesley (Corinthians) is one of the more talented dribblers around … Go have some fun watching Osame Sahraoui (Heerenveen) clips. He’s tiny but so balanced, ferocious, and successful … I think Karim Konaté (Salzburg) is a pure striker but he offers a lot of the stretching capabilities a Šeško did, which results in overlap in this search … I thought Badredine Bouanani (Nice) would break out this year, but I was wrong. He wasn’t ready. Perhaps there’s more to come … Wilfried Gnonto (Leeds) is box office but I still think he’s in development. He should keep trying to get as many minutes as possible.
My two deeper shouts are Callum Hudson-Odoi (Nottingham Forest), whom I will never give up on, and Maxwel Cornet (West Ham) who might be a questionable suggestion but I just don’t care. There’s still something there.
Well, that may be my longest piece yet.
As always, the funny thing is that I’m also positive I forgot some players. You can remind me of those.
Who do you think Arsenal should sign?
Billy: ‘We’ve got our longest read yet’
Sickos: hahahaha YES
Hi Billy, another great piece! I love the acronyms, by the way 😅
I think Eze would be a shout for the L8 position (a replacement for ESR, basically), so even though he’s listed here, in my ideal world it would be him + a more traditional winger.
My preferred option is also Williams, but I don’t think it will be possible due to the reason you listed (his personal choices). I think that if we bring a winger, it will be Pedro Neto, hoping that with more rotation, his injuries can be better managed and avoided.
Keep up the great work, Billy!