How the 2023 overhaul was designed to propel Arsenal past City; why it’s past time to treat Newcastle-style blocks with the same ferocity in the market; and where we go after all the fucking injuries
I understand the restrictions of the January transfer window. And I get that there is a plan for the summer, but surely after the injury to Jesus, there should've been a tactical look at players, who while may not be long term solutions could have played a role this season and in the next few seasons to come. It is looking far more likely that there is going to be a big exodus out of Arsenal this summer. Trossard, Jorginho, Partey, Sterling, Zinchenko, Tierney, Neto, and possibly Kiwior might all be heading out the door. Even if we look at the possibility of getting a 80 million striker, a 70 million winger, and a 60 million midfielder, that still doesn't cover the exits. We will need an additional 2 players to round out the depth for this squad, especially if the club is looking at next season as going for broke (and they absolutely should be, as we are squarely in the middle of that proverbial "window" to win big trophies).
There was business to be done. Perhaps they would've had to spend an extra 10-20 million from their targeted original expenditure to have to go out and get an attacker this January, but the risk was, and now the situation has become existential. I know people decry the "warm body" narrative. But looking at the outgoings, surely we needed an option. I look at the likes of Eze, Kudus, Mbuemo, and I think that spending 50-60 million on one of those, while maybe would've pushed us over in the summer in terms of what we were trying to do, would've maybe paid dividend right now, in this season. Even if its as simple as getting past the round of 16 in the UCL, or maybe even making a semi finals. We would've recouped those monetary premiums.
I think for the transfer window was that cliché that I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed. The summer window and this January window has been a harsh one for Arsenal fans because I think it has been reminiscent of those transfer windows under the latter years of Arsene Wenger's tenure. There are glaring issues, everyone knows what they are, and yet we don't fix them.
Sigh...After all this, I know there will be an opportunity to do something this season. I know Liverpool are going to lose games in the final run in. I just dont think we are in any shape to take advantage of it anymore.
Largely agree with what you are saying but sure how available those players you mentioned are at those prices. Clubs have money and their best players are worth more to them halfway through the season. West Ham could get relegated, Palace and Brentford are both trying to crawl their way up. They aren't looking to sell their best players and they don't need to.
Yeah I understand that, but there is a mathematical equation usually associated with it I believe. One of the reasons why January transfers cost more is because buying clubs usually have to compensate the projected loss in value to the selling club that they may lose due to selling a player and not getting Europe, or whatever. I dont think it would've been cheap, but with clubs like West Ham, Crystal Palace, Brighton, Brentford, we had some leverage to say that "You're not getting Europe, and you're not going to be relegated, let me start funding your war chest for the summer..."
Oh well, what is done is done, Can you imagine if after all of this, Liverpool collapse due to some weird series of events, and we win the league under these circumstances?
On one hand, I am a little unhappy about how this season has turned out so far — yes we’ve had all the bad luck in the world, but the problems we’re facing now had to be seen as a real possibility given squad depth and makeup. On the other hand, I am curious to see how Arteta chooses to deploy what’s left of our squad. We might get to see some interesting combinations. Who knows! Maybe the manager will unlock some new secret combo that will crush all comers. At this point, I feel the league and UCL are gone, so I can just sit back and see what transpires with zero stress. What will be, will be. I’ll still cheer on our Gunners and hope that our transfer cup runneth over this summer.
I think Arsenal playing six more games than Newcastle is a big reason they were able to bully us. They struggled when they had to manage european football last year.
Your stuff is so good. Thank you. The January window analysis is a little harsh IMHO though. If they genuinely have the inside track on Zubimendi and Nico Williams, that's £100 million UPFRONT IN CASH. They won't see much change out of another £100 million for Sesko and Joan Garcia, though obviously that can be amortised, plus Nypan and whoever else on top. So with that locked in level of investment, could they really be chucking major money about in January? Feels very unlikely without big compromises down the line, in a season where ref persecution and Salah's Indomitable Hamstrings have stolen the title. (If they DON'T make all that investment in the summer then burn the witch, obvs). Of course a loan would have helped but I feel weirdly more justified about not doing that post Havertz and Martinelli than I did before. Kolo Muani, the most one footed player in professional football, or Alvaro Morata ain't making up for Arsenal missing every single one of their top attackers for several months. They just aren't. Sometimes it's not your day.
All fair perspectives. I'm not apocalyptic, and the idea of having long-term moves already queued up for the summer is probably the biggest elephant in the room. I just think there were some moves available that didn't put that all in jeopardy; also, I totally agree that a loan/signing wouldn't fix everything, or even all that much, but I think that line of thinking can quickly turn a little fatalistic. You can still look to improve, raise your floor, simply protect your players a little more with rotation, etc.
Yeah, of course that's true, though you know how long it takes even a permanent guy to adapt to Arteta's complexities so the impact would likely be pretty limited. Your point that there are more affordable guys out there than the top shelf options we aim for is bang on; the one I'm still pissed off about is Kulusevski. Not all your jeans need to be limited edition Japanese selvedge! Hit the vintage shops occasionally! (I don't mean bring back Giroud). But clearly the money for this year is already earmarked for the summer.
Anyway, well done for setting up a forum where intelligent football conversation is miraculously still possible! Nobel Prize if you can do the same for politics.
I don't support The Arsenal, or even like them at all. But I read this newsletter religiously because it's simply the best damn football writing I've found on the internet. Thanks for writing it, Billy.
Awesome stuff again, Billy! The winter window has happened and unfortunately it is what it is. Looking ahead to the summer, how well would you say we’re doing in addressing our issue with the mid-to-low block given our reported main targets? That is, assuming we ended up getting Zubimendi, Nypan, Joan Garcia, Nico Williams (3rd time’s the charm?), and Sesko, what would your report card for the Arsenal summer transfer window be?
Worth the wait, Billy. Real clear and rational thoughts on what we've been through - much needed in what has been an emotionally difficult and frustrating few months. And with you fully on the preferred line-up coming up. Would love to see that at the next stage of the UCL
Amazing work Billy. I feel so much mental clarity after reading this. I feel hopeful that the messaging on where to strengthen in the summer is clear to Arsenal too
Excellent as always. Originally was more partial to the sterling-trossard-nwaneri front 3 (I still think that’s what we’ll see this weekend) but convinced by your reasoning, especially the aspect about how your front 3 would allow more rotation up top.
Also happy to see some repeated comments about how good Jorginho was against blocks last year (he was excellent in the 4-1 against Newcastle, which might have been my favorite match of ours from last season. As an aside to an aside, my favorite zinchenko match was his performance against Newcastle in the 0-0 draw around new years 2023. Linebreakers: important against a block). Fans would often mock our depth when we’d bring him on as a sub late when chasing a goal, but it would be for good reason. Shame his athletic levels are so low (last I checked, raya’s top speed in CL is higher than his), could have used him in some of these matches.
Yeah, definitely expect more of the Sterling/Trossard/Nwaneri after some undertones in the Arteta presser today; it's the most clear/obvious, perhaps the strongest on paper, and gets Trossard close to goal which I like. Just worry about rotation and expecting full-90s, plus some other things (aerials, set pieces, going long, etc). Hope to see some different options out there.
I understand the restrictions of the January transfer window. And I get that there is a plan for the summer, but surely after the injury to Jesus, there should've been a tactical look at players, who while may not be long term solutions could have played a role this season and in the next few seasons to come. It is looking far more likely that there is going to be a big exodus out of Arsenal this summer. Trossard, Jorginho, Partey, Sterling, Zinchenko, Tierney, Neto, and possibly Kiwior might all be heading out the door. Even if we look at the possibility of getting a 80 million striker, a 70 million winger, and a 60 million midfielder, that still doesn't cover the exits. We will need an additional 2 players to round out the depth for this squad, especially if the club is looking at next season as going for broke (and they absolutely should be, as we are squarely in the middle of that proverbial "window" to win big trophies).
There was business to be done. Perhaps they would've had to spend an extra 10-20 million from their targeted original expenditure to have to go out and get an attacker this January, but the risk was, and now the situation has become existential. I know people decry the "warm body" narrative. But looking at the outgoings, surely we needed an option. I look at the likes of Eze, Kudus, Mbuemo, and I think that spending 50-60 million on one of those, while maybe would've pushed us over in the summer in terms of what we were trying to do, would've maybe paid dividend right now, in this season. Even if its as simple as getting past the round of 16 in the UCL, or maybe even making a semi finals. We would've recouped those monetary premiums.
I think for the transfer window was that cliché that I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed. The summer window and this January window has been a harsh one for Arsenal fans because I think it has been reminiscent of those transfer windows under the latter years of Arsene Wenger's tenure. There are glaring issues, everyone knows what they are, and yet we don't fix them.
Sigh...After all this, I know there will be an opportunity to do something this season. I know Liverpool are going to lose games in the final run in. I just dont think we are in any shape to take advantage of it anymore.
Largely agree with what you are saying but sure how available those players you mentioned are at those prices. Clubs have money and their best players are worth more to them halfway through the season. West Ham could get relegated, Palace and Brentford are both trying to crawl their way up. They aren't looking to sell their best players and they don't need to.
Yeah I understand that, but there is a mathematical equation usually associated with it I believe. One of the reasons why January transfers cost more is because buying clubs usually have to compensate the projected loss in value to the selling club that they may lose due to selling a player and not getting Europe, or whatever. I dont think it would've been cheap, but with clubs like West Ham, Crystal Palace, Brighton, Brentford, we had some leverage to say that "You're not getting Europe, and you're not going to be relegated, let me start funding your war chest for the summer..."
Oh well, what is done is done, Can you imagine if after all of this, Liverpool collapse due to some weird series of events, and we win the league under these circumstances?
Sublime.
On one hand, I am a little unhappy about how this season has turned out so far — yes we’ve had all the bad luck in the world, but the problems we’re facing now had to be seen as a real possibility given squad depth and makeup. On the other hand, I am curious to see how Arteta chooses to deploy what’s left of our squad. We might get to see some interesting combinations. Who knows! Maybe the manager will unlock some new secret combo that will crush all comers. At this point, I feel the league and UCL are gone, so I can just sit back and see what transpires with zero stress. What will be, will be. I’ll still cheer on our Gunners and hope that our transfer cup runneth over this summer.
All good stuff. 👍
Yeah as grim as it is, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't really curious about how we lineup in the coming weeks.
It’s going to be the definition of out-of-the-box thinking. Necessity being the mother of invention and all that jazz. 🙃😳
I think Arsenal playing six more games than Newcastle is a big reason they were able to bully us. They struggled when they had to manage european football last year.
Yeah, they were just definitely more snapped-on than us in this one, in particular.
Your stuff is so good. Thank you. The January window analysis is a little harsh IMHO though. If they genuinely have the inside track on Zubimendi and Nico Williams, that's £100 million UPFRONT IN CASH. They won't see much change out of another £100 million for Sesko and Joan Garcia, though obviously that can be amortised, plus Nypan and whoever else on top. So with that locked in level of investment, could they really be chucking major money about in January? Feels very unlikely without big compromises down the line, in a season where ref persecution and Salah's Indomitable Hamstrings have stolen the title. (If they DON'T make all that investment in the summer then burn the witch, obvs). Of course a loan would have helped but I feel weirdly more justified about not doing that post Havertz and Martinelli than I did before. Kolo Muani, the most one footed player in professional football, or Alvaro Morata ain't making up for Arsenal missing every single one of their top attackers for several months. They just aren't. Sometimes it's not your day.
Keep it up man, your work is incredible.
All fair perspectives. I'm not apocalyptic, and the idea of having long-term moves already queued up for the summer is probably the biggest elephant in the room. I just think there were some moves available that didn't put that all in jeopardy; also, I totally agree that a loan/signing wouldn't fix everything, or even all that much, but I think that line of thinking can quickly turn a little fatalistic. You can still look to improve, raise your floor, simply protect your players a little more with rotation, etc.
Yeah, of course that's true, though you know how long it takes even a permanent guy to adapt to Arteta's complexities so the impact would likely be pretty limited. Your point that there are more affordable guys out there than the top shelf options we aim for is bang on; the one I'm still pissed off about is Kulusevski. Not all your jeans need to be limited edition Japanese selvedge! Hit the vintage shops occasionally! (I don't mean bring back Giroud). But clearly the money for this year is already earmarked for the summer.
Anyway, well done for setting up a forum where intelligent football conversation is miraculously still possible! Nobel Prize if you can do the same for politics.
Such a great article and always come away learning so much.
I am hopeful Cunha is part of this scouting report! Be interesting to know your thoughts on him.
Also alternatives to Zubamendi. I am not as confident as the club appear to be.
Thank you for your efforts mate
Very much appreciated
I don't support The Arsenal, or even like them at all. But I read this newsletter religiously because it's simply the best damn football writing I've found on the internet. Thanks for writing it, Billy.
👏🙏⚽️
Josh, thank you so much, means a lot. I wish you success and great fortune in every single aspect of your life except one (1).
Keep in touch!
Awesome stuff again, Billy! The winter window has happened and unfortunately it is what it is. Looking ahead to the summer, how well would you say we’re doing in addressing our issue with the mid-to-low block given our reported main targets? That is, assuming we ended up getting Zubimendi, Nypan, Joan Garcia, Nico Williams (3rd time’s the charm?), and Sesko, what would your report card for the Arsenal summer transfer window be?
Coming here before FT in the Leicester game. Merino F9 - it’s happening…
Worth the wait, Billy. Real clear and rational thoughts on what we've been through - much needed in what has been an emotionally difficult and frustrating few months. And with you fully on the preferred line-up coming up. Would love to see that at the next stage of the UCL
Amazing work Billy. I feel so much mental clarity after reading this. I feel hopeful that the messaging on where to strengthen in the summer is clear to Arsenal too
👊, Heera.
Excellent as always. Originally was more partial to the sterling-trossard-nwaneri front 3 (I still think that’s what we’ll see this weekend) but convinced by your reasoning, especially the aspect about how your front 3 would allow more rotation up top.
Also happy to see some repeated comments about how good Jorginho was against blocks last year (he was excellent in the 4-1 against Newcastle, which might have been my favorite match of ours from last season. As an aside to an aside, my favorite zinchenko match was his performance against Newcastle in the 0-0 draw around new years 2023. Linebreakers: important against a block). Fans would often mock our depth when we’d bring him on as a sub late when chasing a goal, but it would be for good reason. Shame his athletic levels are so low (last I checked, raya’s top speed in CL is higher than his), could have used him in some of these matches.
Yeah, definitely expect more of the Sterling/Trossard/Nwaneri after some undertones in the Arteta presser today; it's the most clear/obvious, perhaps the strongest on paper, and gets Trossard close to goal which I like. Just worry about rotation and expecting full-90s, plus some other things (aerials, set pieces, going long, etc). Hope to see some different options out there.
!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!1!!!11one!!!!!!!!
Thoughts on Nwaneri being a triple threat in passing, dribbling and, shooting now??
Any thoughts how young Max Dowman could slot into the team if Arsenal get an exemption?