This was spot on. Rice was too high to stop the transition/match physicality and although Kiwior was there to do the job, we actually needed Tomi on Sane. We should have gone the Brighton away game model but instead pressed too aggressively and gave them too many opportunities to create vertical transitions. Were made to play their game and must be happy with what we got.
Consolation is that I think we’ll be a lot better in Munich because our away set up is better suited to this opponent.
Always love tuning into these, once before and once after the game to see how right you were. Billy, are there any plans to look at what impacts Arsenal disproportionately? I understand there’s not a lot of time between now and the end of the season to get this done though, but think that would be interesting to dispel some narratives about certain players… cough.. Zinchenko… cough
Musiala on the turn vs Rice will be the critical juncture for any Bayern transition. I would fancy our (Bayern's) chances once the ball is released to the widemen 1v1 against Arsenal's fullbacks, who are by no means bad. It's just backpedalling against the pace and trickery of Coman/Sane is no easy task. But yeah if Arsenal's block can deny us space and time to turn and run at the back 4 then our main threat is nullified. Nice piece, especially for a Bayern fan to read!
Curious how we attack given that Dier is a likely starter…Kane is understandably scary for us (will be fascinating to see how he plays against Saliba/Gabriel) but Dier is well past his prime so I do see potential for us to go at him…perhaps even force an early yellow.
Thanks for continuing to churn these out during the packed schedule! I find these match previews helpful in calming my nerves both during and before these big games.
The work on correlating stats to underlying performance seems to be coming along nicely. Can't wait to see it further develop.
Thoughtful analysis as usual. Thank you. I’m both excited and very nervous for this match. I like to think the team is more up for it than I am though. Pressure is a privilege. Hoping our boys meet the moment. At their best, I give them good odds against any team in the world. COYG!
I found something confusing in the Player Correlations table for Bayern , in the Potential areas to exploit sector , why is Kimmich's Short Pass "success rate" a negative correlation? I cant imagine why Bayern would do worse the the more Kimmich completes short passes. Kinda same with Tackes in middle third %.
Yep, so my interpretation (without digging into that specific thing further) is that "good" things can have bad team correlations. A simple example would be, say, Ramsdale saves, or Holding clearances, or Tierney crosses. The individual stat may be good, but the more of it you have, the more a weaker performance may be either caused or reflected.
My guess from watching Kimmich is that when he's pinging it around and being aggressive, he's at his best, but when he's the primary metronome of the team, he can have some weirdness in his tempo, take extra touches, dribble a little too much, etc -- so even though he's completing more short stuff, the team isn't doing better. Same with tackles in the middle third -- that may point to him being the lone destroyer (instead of an 8 or a right-back).
I think I understand what you mean but I think that logic is applicable when talking about Volume of passes by Kimmich , instead of the "Success rate" we see here. But if the table is right , then it would mean that if Kimmich has lower success rate and a possible higher volume (riskier areas of the pitch) then Bayern is actually better off rather than Kimmich having a higher success rate of passes (in safer areas?). If that is true then giving Kimmich the ball in their half and then pressing whoever he passes will yield results.
Or like the other user said ,it probably is just noise.
Always look forward to these man, your write ups are amazing!
Thank you!
This was spot on. Rice was too high to stop the transition/match physicality and although Kiwior was there to do the job, we actually needed Tomi on Sane. We should have gone the Brighton away game model but instead pressed too aggressively and gave them too many opportunities to create vertical transitions. Were made to play their game and must be happy with what we got.
Consolation is that I think we’ll be a lot better in Munich because our away set up is better suited to this opponent.
Keep it coming.
Always love tuning into these, once before and once after the game to see how right you were. Billy, are there any plans to look at what impacts Arsenal disproportionately? I understand there’s not a lot of time between now and the end of the season to get this done though, but think that would be interesting to dispel some narratives about certain players… cough.. Zinchenko… cough
Any tactical and personal breakdown that starts with Chekhov is fine with me Billy!
Duly noted
Duels, duels, duels!!! We’ve gotta love that. Great work billy!
Musiala on the turn vs Rice will be the critical juncture for any Bayern transition. I would fancy our (Bayern's) chances once the ball is released to the widemen 1v1 against Arsenal's fullbacks, who are by no means bad. It's just backpedalling against the pace and trickery of Coman/Sane is no easy task. But yeah if Arsenal's block can deny us space and time to turn and run at the back 4 then our main threat is nullified. Nice piece, especially for a Bayern fan to read!
Curious how we attack given that Dier is a likely starter…Kane is understandably scary for us (will be fascinating to see how he plays against Saliba/Gabriel) but Dier is well past his prime so I do see potential for us to go at him…perhaps even force an early yellow.
!!!!!!!
????
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for continuing to churn these out during the packed schedule! I find these match previews helpful in calming my nerves both during and before these big games.
The work on correlating stats to underlying performance seems to be coming along nicely. Can't wait to see it further develop.
Thank you so much, Victor. Your support has always been so appreciated.
I was at the City game last week and half way through found myself thinking "hmmmm....has Rodri been making that many short passes?"
Great work Billy, I hope Carlos Cuesta has notifications turned on.
"We've done pretty well but HAVE WE KEPT THEIR SHORT PASSING BELOW 92.2%???"
Love it, David.
Thoughtful analysis as usual. Thank you. I’m both excited and very nervous for this match. I like to think the team is more up for it than I am though. Pressure is a privilege. Hoping our boys meet the moment. At their best, I give them good odds against any team in the world. COYG!
Love it, Daos.
Sorry, will you have comments on today's match with Villa?
Excellent Writeup!
I found something confusing in the Player Correlations table for Bayern , in the Potential areas to exploit sector , why is Kimmich's Short Pass "success rate" a negative correlation? I cant imagine why Bayern would do worse the the more Kimmich completes short passes. Kinda same with Tackes in middle third %.
Yep, so my interpretation (without digging into that specific thing further) is that "good" things can have bad team correlations. A simple example would be, say, Ramsdale saves, or Holding clearances, or Tierney crosses. The individual stat may be good, but the more of it you have, the more a weaker performance may be either caused or reflected.
My guess from watching Kimmich is that when he's pinging it around and being aggressive, he's at his best, but when he's the primary metronome of the team, he can have some weirdness in his tempo, take extra touches, dribble a little too much, etc -- so even though he's completing more short stuff, the team isn't doing better. Same with tackles in the middle third -- that may point to him being the lone destroyer (instead of an 8 or a right-back).
I think I understand what you mean but I think that logic is applicable when talking about Volume of passes by Kimmich , instead of the "Success rate" we see here. But if the table is right , then it would mean that if Kimmich has lower success rate and a possible higher volume (riskier areas of the pitch) then Bayern is actually better off rather than Kimmich having a higher success rate of passes (in safer areas?). If that is true then giving Kimmich the ball in their half and then pressing whoever he passes will yield results.
Or like the other user said ,it probably is just noise.