Scouting strikers
A huge examination into what Arsenal need — with detailed reports on Šeško, Gyökeres, and dozens of other targets based on fit, movement, physicality, projected usage, and yes, goal potential
“You can't make a racehorse of a pig.”
“No,” said Samuel. “But you can make a very fast pig.”
― John Steinbeck, East of Eden
I’ll often start these with a prose-y introduction that hopefully sets the emotional tone for the newsletter to follow. It’s an indulgent excuse to stretch out my writing legs, but it’s also a window into the fun complexity of this game we love. Football is full of beautiful contradictions and nuance; the subject of the last edition, Martín Zubimendi, is as subtle as they come.
Today, we’re going to look for a big fucker who’s strong, fast, jumps high, and kicks the ball hard.
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🤔 Passing the Pinnock Test
I’ve had a phrase bouncing around my head while assessing strikers for Arsenal: the Pinnock Test.
Ethan Pinnock has been one of my most-admired players since Brentford joined the Premier League. For all the credit distributed elsewhere in that overachieving project, he’s been a relentless source of clear-eyed stability, a bastion of smarts and physicality. You can take it from Thomas Frank, who I used to love, but now suddenly yet forcefully despise:
“It’s fair to say he’s been one of our best players over those five seasons — the most consistent and best centre-back. What he’s doing for this team is incredible. I think Ethan is one of the better centre-backs in the Premier League; he’s so efficient … I don’t know how many teams he’s neutralised the striker from the opposition. He’s a key player for us.”
He (and that towering 6’4” frame) has won twice as many aerial duels as he’s lost over his Premier League career, with a win rate around 66% and some of the highest volume in the league. He’s also smart, anticipatory, and detail-oriented. Across 9,828 minutes in the Premier League, he’s committed just 27 fouls. He’s drawn 12 more fouls than he’s conceded, averaging just 1 yellow card and 6.75 fouls per season.
A pacy striker can beat Pinnock in open space. While he reacts quickly, he doesn’t have the highest-end raw pace of those at the top clubs.
But that’s the point, and why I bring Pinnock up. When Arsenal play a Brentford, they don’t get to stretch him vertically. In fact, the only time Arsenal strikers really get to run into space is against sides like Liverpool — facing the likes of Van Dijk and Konaté. But against most mid-table and lower-half teams, it’s about occupying space on the shoulder of a giant. Generally speaking, that giant is quick, smart, doesn't make many mistakes, and can win in the air.
Can Kai Havertz beat James Tarkowski to a long diagonal? Yes. How often are we going to see it? Not very. Everton make sure of it.
Here, Nico Jackson shows the reality of being a possession-dominant striker in the Premier League:
An Arsenal striker, then, must present some compelling reason to win in this kind of scenario. That might involve having even freakier tools: jumping higher, being stronger, or just being more intense (Haaland). Or it might mean being quick enough, or so technically sharp, or so clean of a ball-striker, that you can carve out the small gaps and punish them (Alvarez, Dembélé, Jesus, Firmino). Otherwise, you're likely to get lost in Pinnock’s long pockets.
And here’s the wider point: Pinnock is a centre-back for the team that finished 10th in the Premier League. More than that: after an injury, the now-32-year-old Pinnock returned as the third-choice centre-back for that 10th-place team, as Frank and the scouting department platformed younger, freakier profiles in Nathan Collins and Sepp van den Berg.
This story is meant to illustrate the scale of physical quality up and down the Premier League. Clubs who finished in the bottom half can run out beasts like Jarrad Branthwaite, Emmanuel Agbadou, and Micky van de Ven (heh, heh). Real Madrid just signed the ninth-placed team’s centre-back — and you could easily argue they didn’t even get the best one (edit: the Champions League winners are now after the other one). Don’t get me started on Milenković and Murillo, who similarly won’t often leave the box when facing a side like Arsenal.
This is how you get a Europa League final between two relegation-flirting Premier League sides.
It’s tough out there.
Can your preferred striker pass the Pinnock Test?
🤔 What’s the problem to solve?
Unfortunately, I can just copy-and-paste what I wrote a year-and-a-half ago.
Two issues have dogged Arsenal a bit this year. To oversimplify, I’m referring to a) mistakes in the back, and b) a lack of consistent “inevitability” in creating open-play goals. When the opponent does score, it can feel a little too easy — thanks to a soft zone on a set piece or a mistake. Meanwhile, a lot of Arsenal goals can feel too hard to create — they require a sense of intricacy and coordinated perfection.
We’ve become accustomed to William Saliba calmly dispatching opportunities away with a sense of gravitas, unbotheredness, and total athletic dominance. With few exceptions, he is bigger than his mark, faster than his mark, more skilled on the ball, and so obviously in the right position for his abilities — and he plays like he knows it.
While there is a lot of talent up front, the question naturally floats to mind: is this what is needed? A Saliba at the 9? A player bigger, faster, stronger, more dominant, more inevitable than his mark?
It’s only gotten truer after Jesus tore his ACL and each one of the Martinelli/Havertz/Saka triad got injured. The attacking corps is thinner, and everybody — perhaps especially, Trossard — is a year older. Scott from CannonStats covered this question about attacking depth in detail.
This all led to a few outcomes which could broadly be expected given the circumstances:
Arsenal were held to one goal or less in 26 different matches across competitions
Arsenal were 7th in total xG in the Premier League
Arsenal generated the second-closest average shots (15.1 yards), but were only 13th in percentage of shots on target (32.7%)
The reasons behind this are both simple and complex.
The simple answer is that Arsenal did not have their best players on the pitch. (On top of the frontline knocks, White should also be included in the “attacking injury” question.) Arsenal suffered 36 different “time-loss” injuries in all. Even when players returned, they didn’t look fully fit. Ødegaard, White, and Saka only looked at their physical best for periods of the year.
I believe injuries were the biggest problem.
I believe Arsenal have been an overpowered attacker short for almost two years now.
I believe some tactical tweaks are in the offing.
I also believe that a striker is not a cure-all.
🤔 Why have issues lingered in attack?
Last summer, I was broadly supportive of the Calafiori and Merino signings when considered individually — though questions about Calafiori’s new position, tougher league, and heavier load were (and still are) valid given the injury risk. But I thought something was missing. An oversimplified version of my take: “My issue wasn’t Calafiori + Merino. It’s that it wasn’t Calafiori + Merino + Eze.”
While I found the summer understandable from a deal-flow perspective — sales, at least, finally needed to be made — the January window was, to me, a clear error.
Rewinding helps here. Looking back at Five Ways to Improve Arsenal, written after the season, it’s clear that not enough has been done to improve in those key areas:
Improve Plan B through the left
Increase risk tolerance in the middle
Boost team speed
Add ball-striking
A few more big passes
The first was addressed, though the health wasn’t there to prove it out. The remaining items weren’t tackled with enough intent, even if Nwaneri and Lewis-Skelly did their best to change that.
The problems have lingered. In New Superpowers, Old Kryptonite, I broke down how Arsenal responded to the brutal 2023 loss at the Etihad, with the club going all-in on the physical upgrades that would dramatically change such a contest: Rice, Havertz, Timber, Raya. These upgrades worked, and Arsenal have since taken City and other top sides to task.
The problem is that we haven’t solved the other issue with the same ferocity. Compact, physical low-to-mid blocks — your Fulhams, Portos, Newcastles — still give us the problems of old.
I also don’t feel the need to qualify the following phrase: “Arsenal were structurally superior to PSG in that tie.” The problem? PSG’s endless bevy of elite attacking threats had their moments of brilliance, which resulted in goals. Arsenal didn’t.
That’s the sport. Their win was earned.
🤔 What’s the priority?
The next stage has to be just as targeted as the summer of 2023: more variety in attack, more block-movers, better dribblers, more pace, and someone who can finish a half-chance.
I’ve had no major issue with the basic positioning in the build-up structure. The intention is clear.
But the midfield progression has lacked crispness and verve. The team went long too often, or was too one-speed, or once we progressed, the opponent block was already settled. Possession became a little too retentive.
The biggest issue was personnel. Without Saka, or with Saka tripled up and limited, there is no true game-breaker to unsettle a block. Dribbling and passing quality only flashed in moments. The data backs it up:
Arsenal were 7th in the league in shot creation from take-ons
Arsenal were 7th in shots that led to another shot (below West Ham)
This was especially pronounced in open play. Arsenal didn’t have a pure “finishing” problem. We actually had the third-highest non-penalty xG over-performance in the league (+6.6), per Opta; but we also know it’s not that simple.
As such, my two top priorities have been:
A midfielder who can enhance and balance the build-up (see: Zubimendi), providing readier advantages to the final-third players
One or two dynamic, swashbuckling, give-me-the-fucking-ball attacking forces (ideally helping on the left)
A pure striker falls below that (or merely overlaps with #2). Why? Because the most bankable advantage is relentless chance creation. Finishing is volatile. Year-to-year, even elite players swing wildly. Kevin De Bruyne’s xG overperformance during his prime (ages 28–30) was +5.2, -2.9, and +9.3.
Notorious underperformers like Thuram, Cunha, and Mbeumo flipped into top-tier overperformers this season. Finishing isn’t a mirage, but paying a premium for it over a short time horizon is risky. The gods of variance do not care how much you spent.
And sure, Arsenal pad their xG through set pieces. This “overperformance” is also not evenly distributed. In two games — PSV and Man City — Arsenal overperformed non-penalty xG by a combined +9.1. That’ll help the ‘ole statline.
Still, the open-play xG and shot numbers aren’t where they should be. That improves with health, sure. But more than that, it improves with better dribblers, ball-hitters, and final-ball players. This is especially glaring if Saka (who was on pace to break a Premier League assist record, lest we forget) is out.
My final point of context? Kai Havertz is good. If I told you a 25-year-old Champions League winner was producing like this at striker, you’d be intrigued.
🙌 Alas: let’s still buy a striker
But striker-seekers aren’t wrong.
At least I hope they’re not, for I am one.
Jesus is injured, some important team qualities are in short supply, and somebody still needs to put the ball in the fucking net.
One reason is depth.
Another is that Arsenal still need that indefensible attacker, and that can come at #9.
And as we said, against PSG, we created enough to win the xG battle, but lost on moments of individual brilliance.
We should remember that “xG overperformance” only tells us so much. Arsenal do get the ball into the box, but the box is often undermanned, and crowded with defenders. To generate xG, you must take a shot in the first place, and Arsenal aren’t always the best at that. If the trigger doesn’t get pulled, that’s 0.0 xG.
A moment like this? 0.0 xG.
And Saka beating his man but lacking true support in the box isn’t rare.
Against Fulham (December), Partey played as the tucked-in right-back, limiting overlap. That forced Havertz to flare out from striker to run the over-and-underlaps. It worked in isolation, but it often left the box empty.
Here’s Saka’s pass map from that day. Look at the gray dotted lines:
It’s not hard to imagine how a more consistent box presence — someone who passes the Pinnock Test, aside from Havertz — and better dynamics could lead to more shots, more xG, and more goals.
We’ve seen flashes of the ideal striker.
Havertz was close to ideal down the stretch of 2023–24. He scored headers, tap-ins, and big transitional goals. He showed up in big games. At times, he was the guy.
While Jesus was electric in early 2022–23, opponents played Arsenal differently back then, so we shouldn’t cling to that as the ideal iteration. Yesterday’s price isn’t today’s price.
In fact, he showed an ideal incarnation this year. People mislabel him as a pure false nine, but he’s more than that. He’s a target, a shoulder runner, a space finder; a true striker when it’s time to make moves in the box. He just misses some shots.
When Jesus was hot this year, you saw the ceiling.
So now the question: aside from Kai, who else can show more of that?
📊 Factors considered
I find striker to be the hardest position to scout, especially when assessing a wide pool of players. There are so many dependencies, and each forward demands time to understand their physical tools, tendencies, and potential growth. Even then, figuring out how they’ll “scale up” can feel like guesswork, especially as their physical profile is often still developing — and often in ways that surprise us.
As an example, Mateo Retegui won the capocannoniere with a dominant 25-goal season at striker for Atalanta this year.
Here are his numbers from the previous season, with 11th-place Genoa:
He was not on my lists. Without physical data, how am I supposed to find that player’s potential in a broad search?
The only way, really, is to watch.
As a contrast: two years ago, I did a piece looking for cost-effective full-backs for Arsenal. Here were the top three players my model surfaced that I hadn’t yet watched: Riccardo Calafiori (FC Basel), Milos Kerkez (AZ Alkmaar), and Yukinari Sugawara (AZ Alkmaar). All played in the Premier League last year. No eye test was needed.
I haven’t been able to replicate that process with strikers yet. So I wanted to step back and go deeper on a few players in order to improve. Without physical data across the board, the best I can do is set clear criteria take notes and gather stats as fairly as I can.
Here’s what I look for in a striker.
Gaining space
Box movement: How efficiently they manipulate defenders with double-movements, blindside runs, near-post darts, or decoys to receive between lines or get free in key areas. A combination of relentlessness, savvy, and patience.
Poaching: Timing and angle of runs inside the penalty area to meet crosses or cutbacks. Also: reactions to rebounds. How quickly do they snap into action?
Channel running: Willingness, immediacy, shoulder strength, and effectiveness attacking the space between full-backs and centre-backs.
Touches in box: Frequency of involvement near goal. May reflect current role, service, ability to generate separation, or all of the above.
Link-up
Hold-up: Receiving and withstanding contact with back to goal under pressure. Doing something useful with it from there.
Combination play: Interplay in tight areas. Includes first-touch layoffs, wall passes, give-and-goes, and simple bounces. Requires a feel for tempo and attacking rhythm.
Key passes: Vision and ability to create direct chances.
Pass variety: Through balls, clipped diagonals, disguised passes. Doing more than just recycling possession.
Shots
Shot generation and volume: Pure ability and willingness to take shots.
Speed of release: How quickly they can generate power with a snappy backlift in tight spaces.
Ambipedalness: Comfort using both feet to shoot.
xG: Ability to accumulate expected goals. An examination of quality of shot.
On-ball
Carrying: Generating progression with power-carries, in control and with opponents on the shoulder.
Dribbling (box): Comfort at weaving through defenders in tight spaces.
Dribbling (wide 1v1): Clarity and “intention neutrality” of wide, 1v1, winger-like dribbles.
Aerials
Set plays: Attacking and defensive role and input.
Long-balls from keeper: Ability to compete and retain long distributions. Can they turn an exit ball into an attacking sequence, regardless if they win or not?
Headed goals: Timing and physical capacity to generate end-product from the air.
Dead-ball
Penalties/free-kicks/corners: Any specialist value as a ball-striker on these?
Physical
Repeat intensity (attack): Capacity to make hard runs repeatedly for long stretches.
Repeat intensity (out-of-possession): Pressing, recovery runs, lane-closing, tackling.
Pace (short): Acceleration over the first 5–10 yards.
Pace (long): Top-end speed gains after 10+ yards.
Strength: Withstanding contact and re-balancing against Premier League-level defenders.
Playing temperament
Work-rate: Overall engagement and willingness to put in effort. In strikers, I also look for energy management: conserving legs when necessary, and sprinting to cover and disrupt, but not being indiscriminate.
Pressing: Feel for timing, angles, and cover-shadows in the press.
Flexibility/Tactical Intelligence: A “total football” comfort in multiple zones, ability to cover 2+ positions if needed.
Discipline: Fouling record, card record, lack of a bozo gene.
Communication: Vocal leadership, as is shown on a pitch. For strikers, that means having a keen eye on declarative movements (triggering clear runs, leading the press jumps, etc).
Other
Mid-block breaker: Qualities that can destroy the physical mid-blocks that have dogged Arsenal so. Running in behind, snap dribbling, clean ball-striking, and disguised final balls.
Risk profile
Age: Impacts trajectory, resale value, physical scaling, and “deadwood risk” of transaction.
Adaptation (league): The big one. How does a player’s physical adaptation project across leagues, play-styles, and environments?
Adaptation (tactics): I have some correlation scores that indicate how similar a team’s play-style may impact the transfer.
Resale value: Potential to sell at market value or to run through the player’s value.
Injury profile: A look through history of recurring issues.
Potential: When in doubt, go for the highest-ceiling players available.
Cost: A look at the full financial package to determine ROI.
Based on what you’re looking for, you can create an archetype, then turn the dials and weigh things as you see fit. My feeling is that Arsenal are looking for a “complete” forward with skills across the board, but if they are incomplete, let them be incomplete in a way that results in speed, work-rate, aerial work, and shots+goals.
📈 Selection criteria
Today we’re just talking about purer #9s: players you can start there 30+ times as needed. We’ll get into flexible forwards and wide forwards later on.
I started with a list of 147 strikers. From there, I culled it based on key factors — age, shot generation, stage of development — and narrowed it down to a shortlist using a few filters, including:
Some form of instant impact: players who could plausibly hit the ground running as a rotational striker in 2025 for a Premier League club chasing a title.
Shot generation: they needed some track record of producing 2+ shots per 90. If not, they may still be good players, but they’re not set up to succeed at Arsenal’s level just yet.
Catch-all production score: I’ve got a performance score that benchmarks how they performed last season. That helped separate the noise.
This got the pool down to 51. From there, I added rows for each player into a spreadsheet, pulled in stats, made notes on all the key factors, and created an initial shortlist based on both the output score and my gut feel.
What follows is (hopefully) a semi-realistic shortlist of who Arsenal could sign. This is an “all deals held equal” list — if all players were available at the same price (say, €65m) and looking for “normal high” wages, rather than obscene ones. But more than that, it’s a personal eye test. After generating the shortlist, I watched 1–10 full matches for each player, wrote up notes, ran deeper stats, and adjusted the rankings based on feel.
I then weighed things to look for a younger, “complete forward” who bags goals. Total cost wasn’t a primary concern, but value retention was.
In other words: after all that work, this is still a vibes list, not a statistical ranking.
We’ll start with a few less-likely candidates, then get into the meat. Enjoy.
🔥 Group 1: The Unlikelies
👉 1. Alexander Isak, Newcastle
Isak’s grace and skill make him one of the best forwards in Europe. As far as pure No. 9s go, he has a legitimate claim as a top-three option in the world after Haaland and Kane, though players like Mbappé and Dembélé would certainly be there if you include them. Given Kane’s age and the absurdity of Haaland’s wages, Isak might actually be the first striker you'd want to sign if the chance came up.
He glides through space with the ball at his feet, can shift wide to combine or isolate defenders, and has grown into something undeniable at Newcastle. Aside from logistical concerns (injury risk and price, mainly), I previously had two reservations about him, despite loving his game.
My questions were:
Was he quite greedy enough for shots (and the goals that follow)?
Can he pass the Pinnock Test, dominating in settled, crowded-box situations?
Those concerns have more or less evaporated. He’s not a huge aerial threat (four goals, though, including one against us) but I have seen him do enough quick movements to get the better of players like Saliba and Van Dijk enough to know he can beat anybody.
His ambipedal dribbling and ability to break lines on his own stretch mid-blocks, and his shot numbers keep ticking upwards. Few strikers can be that useful in wide areas without giving up the central threat. He is in the highest tier of ball-striker: he doesn’t need perfect circumstances to generate huge power.
Some concerns remain, namely injury profile, how he fits alongside Havertz, and total cost. Isak and Havertz share some movement tendencies that are probably not fully complementary. But, as I said, he’s undeniable at this point.
I could definitely defend spending Antony/Kolo Muani money on Isak. But if the deal creeps past £100m, I’d hesitate. His physical profile and injury risk make it rich for my blood: when you are looking to spend that much, you have to ensure a high floor of possibilities. In our project, you can’t just hope for the peak at those numbers; that mindset is understandable in the 0-65m range of investment. Here, you have to think of the doomsday scenario. Wirtz, Bellingham, Rice, Caicedo all are the kinds of players you can “overpay” for because of how risk-mitigated they are. Isak’s history with muscular injuries doesn’t comfortably put him in that bracket.
Either way, there’s very little chance it actually happens, as journalists remind us every day. Moving along, then.
👉 2. Julián Alvarez, Atlético Madrid
Álvarez isn’t a clean match for every trait Arsenal would typically target here, but the qualities he does check are so central to Mikel Arteta’s demands that he vaults into elite territory anyway. Let’s get that out of the way first: he’s not a back-to-goal target, and at 5'7", he’s not adding aerial value like a classic No. 9, nor is he the pure 1v1 dribbler you get with a Nico Williams–type. But what is appealing is the package: a relentless box-mover, a striker with live-wire instincts in tight spaces, a secondary creative force, somebody who blasts in goals against the run of play, and someone who can press like his life depends on it. Álvarez does all of that at a world-class level.
My reaction to his move to Atlético was that he was overpriced. Why? I just thought they had more pressing needs, and Álvarez does come with a few aforementioned limitations. Plus, there are cheaper players — like Sørloth (and Gyökeres!) — who can bang in that system.
I’ve since revised that take: the price was probably about right.
We’ll start with the intangibles: work rate, repeat intensity, and playing temperament. Álvarez’s effort is obscene. His timing when triggering the press, his ability to cover passing lanes, and his willingness to double up or drop into midfield zones show both humility and tactical intelligence. Then there’s the flexibility. He can play as a 9, a second striker off the wing, or a maurauding 10, and you’ve got a player who could slot all over Arsenal’s rotation without disrupting chemistry, including on the left. His box movement is constant and sharp: front-post darts, blindside delays, double movements. You’d like to see more shot volume, but that’s the trade-off.
Then there’s his ball-striking and ambipedalness. Álvarez generates power off both feet, especially in tight windows: rebounds, cutbacks, half-cleared set pieces. That “snappiness” is baked into his whole rhythm: snap runs, snap releases, snap recoveries. He’s Premier League proven, everywhere proven, a World Cup winner, a football completer, ideal age, and a player who elevates collective belief. He’s a very risk-mitigated signing.
He’s also got through-ball timing in his locker, and the combination of qualities with Havertz is quietly very complementary. Like Havertz, he’s a culture elevator: someone who plays like the ball is always there to be won. On top of that, he makes you feel like another goal is always within reach. That’s not easy to quantify. But Álvarez has it.
👉 3. Victor Osimhen, Napoli
Osimhen, the former #1 on our BEAST rankings, is shock-and-awe: elite acceleration, violent box movement, and a relentlessness that makes him hard to contain even when touches are few. His ability to gain space, run the channels, and carve out even a smidgeon of room in the box all sit in the top tier globally.
He doesn’t float out to link up the way Jesus or even Isak might, but he does create chaos, verticality, and tough decisions, and that tests the opponent’s window of tolerance in a way no other Arsenal forward currently does. He can also create space in zone-14 for others to roam. He offers a rare blend of shot volume, xG accumulation, and headed goals per 90, all backed by arguably top-three aerial reach in the world. And when things break down? He has the repeat intensity to go again and force the issue. He’s physical and furious. Every time he steps on the pitch, defenders know they’re in for a long day.
Here’s a chart I pulled from a year ago.
In Turkey, he was up to 5.19 shots per 90. No Arsenal striker had half that.
The fit has caveats. He’s a low-touch striker who thrives on service and separation. That can shift team dynamics, inviting players to lump it in rather than work advantages through passing, and it can clog central channels where Saka and Martinelli should drift. He’s not someone who’ll solve build-up issues or bring calm to slower spells. His link-up and combination play are functional, occasionally mechanical, and not especially fluid.
To get his impact to a maximum, you need a very intentional structure behind him: a creator in advanced areas, a wide threat who can deliver killer balls (someone like Eze or Nico Williams), and a left-eight who plays more as a provider than a box-crasher.
The cost, injury record, and knock-on effects on current roles make him a complex, high-stakes bet. It creates an awkward situation with Havertz where both would be on high wages and deserve regular starts, and that makes me hesitate. But on pure striker metrics — poaching, box presence, aerial dominance, shot generation, speed of release — he’s close to the top of the sport. He rips the Pinnock Test in half.
The wages likely make this untenable, and those reservations should make us avoid an overpay. You can probably deduce that I put approximately zero stock in gossipy-style murmurings about player character or entourages or whatever, but who knows, maybe there are non-wage-related reasons that teams are shying away. I love his personality on the pitch.
🔥 Group 2: Let’s do it
🔦 4. Benjamin Šeško, RB Leipzig
The show you came for.
We’ll start with the priors:
Fall 2023: Šeško was the top striker worldwide in my value-based model. The estimated cost was low, and the age adjustment helped him a lot. But I’ve always been sky-high on him.
January 2024: In a broader search for a BEAST, he was #2/#3 after Osimhen and a potential bargain swoop (€35m) for Ivan Toney.
Benjamin Šeško is not quite ready yet. His trajectory is somewhat similar to that of Rasmus Højlund, and while Højlund may be more developed physically, Šeško is 6’4”, fast as all hell, technical, and has a sky-high athletic ceiling. The ball explodes off his foot, and he’s got good per 90 numbers to show for it. In all, it’s a foundational package that is right up there with the world’s best. The catch is that he is still very much in development, needs minutes, and has a wide range of outcomes. The problem with the Højlund signing has never been his talent — it’s been his expectation, fee, and role. I’d gladly give Højlund the Nketiah minutes and see how he can develop, and the reported release clause of Šeško (£42m) makes that an intelligent gamble. There’s a good chance you have something rare on your hands.
People were surprised to see Šeško so high in my striker rankings (#2/#3). It's not because he's ready-made. It's because Arsenal have the luxury of nice depth already, and can afford to grab the highest value-to-potential player possible and build him up over a transition year.
He consistently beats Gyökeres, Vlahović, etc in my stuff. He also beat Isak when estimated cost was in there last January, even though Isak is the clearly-superior player right now.
I've never had any illusions about his development areas. He’s also not precisely what Arsenal need in this exact moment: chasing finishing, especially in the short-term, can be fickle. Tierney and Zinchenko were just played on the wing and Arsenal are crying out for a non-Ødegaard creative force. But unless it’s a Jorginho-style deal, long-term vision should always trump short-term need. And we need an attacker (or two!), period.
With his current limitations, you'd like to see him generate more shots — he should be safely at 3+ per 90 in the Bundesliga (he's at 2.35). 4.4 total xG at this stage isn't enough to calm your mind.At any given time, there are only 4-5 of these strikers in the world: true freaks of nature of the highest tier. He has every single thing you can’t coach.
What’s changed since then?
Šeško has completed another year of development, Jesus suffered an ACL tear, Trossard had a down year in front of goal, and, for long stretches, Arsenal’s attack struggled to produce.
For this, I watched (or rewatched) Šeško against Aston Villa, Atlético Madrid, Real Madrid, Portugal, Werder Bremen, England, Inter, Liverpool, PSG, and Juventus. I’ll watch more if we end up needing a full scouting report. The short version: I’m extraordinarily high on his ceiling, measured about the current details of his game, carry a few concerns (namely: cost), and am pretty confident he can score goals while he develops. All of that can be true at once.
Let’s start with Leipzig. The dynamics were strange and often frustrating this year. Watching them more closely wasn’t how I’d have chosen to spend my evenings. The ball rarely moved cleanly, the midfield never quite settled, and the data backs up what the eye test was already shouting.
Union Berlin, who scored just 35 goals in the Bundesliga, took more shots than Leipzig. So did West Ham and Manchester United.
Mohamed Simakan and Dani Olmo were sold, and their replacements (while talented) weren’t fully ready. Arthur Vermeeren, a prospect I liked a lot at Antwerp, joined permanently, but every midfield pairing felt either too young, too imprecise, too lightweight, or just a touch uncertain, and Vermeeren wasn’t as refined as I’d hoped. When the ball eventually reached Xavi Simons, Loïs Openda, and Šeško, it was rarely in clear, advantageous situations. Everything looked like a grind.
As a bit of context: Openda has a kind of bouncy directness to his game, a bit of chaos and variance, but he shows a consistent level of explosive effort and application, and is in his prime. His last four seasons before this one? 10, 18, 21, and 24 goals. This year, his non-penalty xG collapsed from 19.7 to 8.2; total xG fell from 22.1 to 9.0. I don’t think that’s a player forgetting how to create chances. I think that’s a broken platform.
To my eye, Šeško improved the small things. It was the right call to stay a year, but he had to navigate a lot: the tactical and physical drag of Leipzig’s deeper structure, poor service, and more defensive minutes. His playing time jumped, his expected assists went up, and his presence in earlier phases increased noticeably. That helped round out the profile — he took more aerials, held the ball up more — but he was pulled further from goal. His touches in the attacking penalty area dropped. So did his shots per 90. The decline in goals shouldn’t be surprising, but we shouldn’t hand-wave away the shot totals; you’d just like to see them higher.
But my first instinct is to push back on the idea that the 21-year-old Šeško had a disappointing season. His team underperformed, yes. He didn’t explode to Haaland levels. But 16 non-penalty G+A (18 total) in a struggling side, at his age, isn’t all that troubling. Strikers often need time to add their little tricks, and many peak late. Lewandowski was a rotation player at this age. Gyökeres was in the 2.Bundesliga with St. Pauli.
Now, with that out of the way, we can get to the good stuff. After the loss to Bayern in the Champions League, I said the next stage of the project should be about “stacking unicorns.” Few players fit that brief like Šeško.
Speaking of Bayern:
He’s still that explosive, freakish, rare athlete in a game increasingly rewarding those traits. Watch how he accelerates through the lines here. Champions League midfielders and full-backs are left behind while he has the ball, only gaining steam.
In terms of overall athletic profile — strength, size, coordination — he’s in that Bellingham, Haaland, Baleba tier. And there’s not a lot of company up there.
He offers a rare duality of power and pace. In open field, he’s dangerous. He’s already shown he can be a big-club killer in more end-to-end games. If he’s high enough to make a run, and confident in what he wants to do, it’s over.
In the air, he’s reliable whether attacking a corner or defending one. He’s more effective on set pieces than in traditional target-man scenarios, although he handles the latter well enough. His only real peer in terms of leap height among strikers is probably Osimhen, and the thought of Šeško and Gabriel charging in toward goal together is genuinely frightening, though not for us. He can really sky on a cross, and the timing is generally good, so his potential is huge there for Saka whips.
At Leipzig, he’s often positioned as a near-post or central anchor on defensive and attacking set plays, where his instincts and long frame are trusted to clear danger or even initiate counters. He isn’t a pressing maniac, but he presses with intent and brings energy and physical presence in those moments. His long legs help make it hard to play around him.
The in-between moments, outside of the highlight reels, are where he’s still learning and rounding out his game.
At times, his channel runs stall before they really threaten. He’s obviously quick, but he can sometimes be hesitant in his movement, regularly checking his shoulder or holding his run rather than committing fully into space the way someone like Gyökeres does. He has a tendency to wait for chaos rather than create it himself. It’ll be the manager’s job to increase his own level of conviction.
On the ball, his dribbling is impressively clean for someone of his size. When he finds himself isolated in wide areas, especially in 1v1s, he can look like a genuine (if giant) winger, and could even fill in on the left in a Martinelli-type role as a stopgap contingency.
These setups are good.
However, he lacks some of the detailed scanning and low balance you see in more refined battlers like Lewis-Skelly, and this can result in occasional loose touches, misreads, or times when he doesn’t feel pressure before it arrives. Where Zubimendi has a sort of internal “pre-processor” that helps him anticipate and shape play a beat early, Šeško doesn’t fully have that yet. There’s no guarantee about where it ends up.
When his playmaking goes well, it goes very well. He has an interesting bag of passes.
His link-up play varies in quality. At its best, it’s clean and simple, helping moves tick with one-touch layoffs or quick passes into space; his quick-turns can be super impressive.
But it can also carry too much force or imprecision, resembling the overpowered, slightly chaotic combinations you sometimes see from Osimhen. Here’s him (red) losing it, resulting in a goal by … Gyökeres (white).
To me, some of that deeper work feels like underemployment for a player with so many goals in him.
Shot selection is another area where his decision-making still feels in development. He’s very willing to shoot from distance (something Arsenal could actually use more of) but he doesn’t vary his finishing choices much and doesn’t often disguise his intentions. He prefers to strike through the ball while already in motion, using momentum to power his shots. That rhythm allows him to finish from awkward angles and body positions, but it also makes him less effective in tighter, slower penalty-box situations. Right now, he needs space to gather himself and build into a shot.
It should be said, he can hit a ball with a power only a few in the world can match. Some of his highlights look sped up.
The total number of human beings on Earth who would score a goal from this pass may be two (2): Haaland and Šeško.
(Perhaps Osimhen, too.)
There’s a compelling foundation of boxy striker instincts developing. His acceleration is sharp, his off-ball movement in the box has become more intentional, and even in a Leipzig side built around quick transitions and less structured buildup, he’s finding ways to sneak into gaps between defenders and finish quickly — with either foot. There’s no doubt he wants to score.
What he needs now is a framework that refines that ambition, pushes him forward (literally), shapes his timing, and teaches him when to arrive, not just how.
Here, we see he’s logged 53 dribbles on centre-halves alone, resulting in 21 shots and six goals.
I think Šeško has been underserved by the current Leipzig setup. He hasn’t had enough chances to lean into his unicorn traits, whether that’s running channels aggressively or bullying defenders in more settled final-third positions. If he were given that kind of responsibility and structure, I believe he’d score more goals.
Case in point. If you compare this top 5 — Isak, Álvarez, Osimhen, Šeško, Ekitike, Gyökeres — Šeško has the most touches in the middle third, the second-most touches in the defensive third (second to Álvarez), but … the fewest in the attacking third, and the fewest in the penalty box. If he was meant to be a deep playmaker this year, he was still an imperfect one. But it may have been good for his development.
Sometimes players don’t get the ball in the box because they haven’t done enough to earn it. But it hints at how some of his responsibilities have influenced his production.
We can hold a few thoughts at once:
Very few players in world football have as high a ceiling as he does. Arsenal need unicorns to win at the highest level. He qualifies already, but his “final form” is almost unmatchable.
Everything has to be considered relative to his age. For a striker who turned 22 a few days ago, 60 goals and 28 Champions League apps is a lot. He’s three full years younger than Álvarez, for example; at this age, Álvarez was still playing for River Plate. Gyökeres was on loan for St. Pauli.
As such, every aspect of his game is more shapeable than others.
Kai Havertz is, in all likelihood, the better player right now.
Šeško remains underpolished in several key areas. He can have games with little impact. Some of his runs have hesitation. He can dribble into trouble. He doesn’t always anticipate pressure. His shot selection can be too linear, too predictable. His potential currently is higher than his production.
And yet, he could remain somewhat raw throughout 2025–26 and still bag plenty of goals if used well. Just look at how Merino produced during a brief run as a striker: I had him at 9 G+A in 12 appearances. Šeško can feed on aerials, rebounds, and the occasional thunderbolt while the rest of his game rounds out.
Arsenal have been crying out for a ‘high man’ who can sprint and stretch the defensive shape the moment a ball is won. (He’s also fun to watch “go” on post-corner counters.) When your high men are, say, Merino and Ødegaard, you are going to be naturally constricted. Our deeper players can hit balls to a diagonally-running Šeško shortly after a rewin. Despite my talk of the Pinnock Test, Arsenal can and must play more transitionally than they do.
This is a player with long legs, both-footedness, and freakishly fast reactions; that strikes me as a player who can bang in some rebounds, right? Only problem: RB Leipzig were dead-last at shots that led to another shot attempt. They didn’t shoot enough, and when they did, Šeško was often doing something else.
He might become one of the best possible weapons for breaking mid-blocks and producing messy, random, scammy goals through sheer ball-striking power. That’s something Arsenal have lacked. Giving the opposition the feeling of “no matter what we do, that fucker might still score” is something those PSG attackers have offered, and the likes of KDB has provided countless times over the years. I honestly think it impacts a team’s sense of belief from before the whistle.
Let’s say you often have 2-0 leads. I really like the idea of Šeško coming on for Ødegaard at 75’, with Havertz moving to #10. Then you have a midfield of Zubimendi, Rice, Havertz — with Saka, Šeško, and a transitional winger up top. That’s maximum defensive/aerial solidity, and a great transitional/ball-striking threat to tally in more goals. In general, he can sub in every game, in every game-state, and then rack up cup starts to prove himself. It’s a perfect opening.
It’s also fair to have questions about his current shot volume. He doesn’t yet show the consistent instincts you see in elite box predators, only flashes. Sometimes that’s something you can train; many true 9’s peak later for this reason. But sometimes it’s hardwired.
His intensity/distance/speed numbers all look great.
I genuinely believe he’ll be much better served by Arsenal’s setup than Leipzig’s. The spacing, the support cast, the rhythms, the possession, the predictable nature of the quality — all of it will help him. Havertz is a great example for Šeško’s areas of improvement.
Valuation-wise, there are touches of Højlund, Isak, Núñez, and Ramos to this deal. My very simple, back-of-the-napkin valuation came out at €69.8m. I'd probably expect the total package to come in a little higher than that because of his gifts, and the silliness in the market, but that is a way to justify an overpay. Those comparable deals demonstrate some of the risk, so: much higher than that, and I worry.
It’s a rare combination of gifts, in a near-ideal stage of development for a transfer.
In conclusion, think of the tunnel.
Won’t somebody think of the tunnel?
🔦 5. Hugo Ekitiké, Eintracht Frankfurt
I’ve watched him plenty, but I didn’t expect to like Hugo Ekitike this much for us. I’d loosely followed his breakout at Reims and his PSG detour, but the Bundesliga loan was the first time I actually studied him. What I found was a player with real clarity to his game: lanky, upright, gliding — but also, a player with deceptive strength and a real striker’s instinct.
He’s not just a wide forward who moonlights as a 9, or purely a link-man who is learning movement. Like Jesus, whose box movements were often under-celebrated, he can also be an actual box forward who happens to fan around and carry the ball like a winger.
His frame invites lazy comps, but his tools are specific. He’s 6’2", lean, and his strength is a layered, confusing topic, but that’s not the lens through which to view him. This ain’t weak.
His movements in the box are economical and disguised. He’ll hang just off the back shoulder, then shift into the gap before the defender recalibrates. A lot like Havertz, actually — physically adept, a bit shifty, and spatially clever. In Frankfurt’s cutback-heavy system, he thrived on those moments. Most of his opportunities came from finding a yard, timing the finish, and trusting his technique. He’s able to generate these shots at some of the highest rates in Europe.
He’s like an exact midpoint of Gabriel Jesus, Kai Havertz, and Morgan Rogers.
He’s not an elite ball-striker, and he doesn’t overpower keepers. He’ll often just do loose-ankle whacks at the ball. But because of the positions he puts himself, he absolutely racks up xG: his 19.3 non-penalty xG was third-highest in the top-five leagues of Europe, ahead of Haaland and Mbappé, and on fewer minutes.
What may be most appealing is how often he creates chances by himself. Critics will argue he benefited from Eintracht’s transitional setup, and there’s absolutely truth to that. The field-tilt was different to an Arsenal, and it was a system tailored to his strengths. Eintracht is famous for platforming strikers well, and they don’t always translate elsewhere.
But he’s not just a run-and-gun poacher. He drops into the left half-space, rides contact, plays the return. He can operate in tight spaces, keeping defenders off-balance with feints and hesitation rather than pure bursts. He can create a lot of layoffs like these.
There are moments where he looks half-speed — until he’s not. When he opens up, he can glide past a full-back or thread through a tight seam. He’s scored more than once from a loose touch or misread bounce that turned into a shooting lane. It’s not always sustainable, but it shows he’s comfortable in traffic.
The risk lies elsewhere. He’s not yet a physically dominant, press-resistant wall player. He’s not a long-range threat. His ball-striking is only OK, and very comfortably sits below the Isak tier. Aerially, he’s somewhere in the middle: not bad, not great. He’s tall and can get off the ground, but success depends on how well he sets his body and prepares for contact.
This is where the Premier League gets tricky. If he starts slow and doesn’t assert himself physically, it becomes a value problem. That profile cools quickly in England because it’s tough to resell to the league’s big spenders. Right now, he’s 22, productive, and interesting. But if the goals dry up and the physical adaptation is awkward, that interest fades, and he’s more likely to return to the continent for a lower fee. If he goes into the wrong system, I could see him having some Zirkzee-like struggles because he’s such an interplay-heavy player.
Still, I think he’s worth it around €65 million, which would be far below the price you’ve heard quoted. He frees up Havertz, covers for Jesus, is one of the best xG-generators around, and can feasibly start off the left or as a high 10 without issue, and offers something Arsenal don’t currently have: a striker who manipulates space inside the box without needing to bulldoze through it.
At minimum, you’ve added a quick, dribble-and-move-first centre-forward who gives you an extra weapon against mid-blocks, which are exactly the kind of matches Arsenal have to unlock more regularly. And if it all clicks? You’ve got a player with a rare blend of ball-carrying and penalty-box instincts. It’s worth exploring.
📍 A note
This is the point in the process where things get more complicated.
Isak, Álvarez, and Osimhen will likely prove unavailable for very different reasons: contract length, price, internal politics, Chelsea getting weird(er), whatever. Šeško and Ekitike, depending on how their situations unfold, could feasibly reach uncomfortable levels in terms of cost.
Strikers are famously bust-heavy, so this is where a shift in approach may become appealing. Instead of committing a massive fee to a truer, but more uncertain, #9, it may be smarter to spread the investment across profiles. This could look a few different ways. It could be one high-level left-winger (like Nico Williams) and one flexible attacker (like Morgan Rogers, Xavi Simons, Loïs Openda, Mohammed Kudus, João Pedro, that sort). That’d offer thrust, adaptability, and squad value without overloading a single role or bet.
It would help de-risk the window and ensure that 3–5 vibrant, bursty attackers are on the pitch at all times. And it gives Arteta a broader range of solutions as the season evolves.
That said, there’s no need to be dogmatic. Let’s keep looking.
🔥 Group 3: Hmmmmmm
🔦 6(ish). Viktor Gyökeres, Sporting CP
I was a skeptic. Not because I thought Viktor Gyökeres was bad, but because of the usual reasons. I’d watched him plenty, knew how intense and violent a player he could be, and wondered — like most people — how well that game would scale across leagues. As time passed, though, I started to grow weary of hearing the same analyses repeated again and again, so I tried my best to hit reboot on my brain, strip things back, and take another look.
The first thing that stood out was the physical profile. Through SkillCorner, SCOUTED has some great physical data that I don’t get reliable access to, and it shows that Gyökeres is a serious athlete, with serious dog.
He’s built for repeat intensity, with carrying and duelling numbers that also put him near the top of the striker market. He’s happy to hang offside to stretch the line. He’s big and wide, runs hard and often, and can generate a lot of power.
Against Arsenal, he tangled with Gabriel and Saliba, and they ultimately won that battle. But he also put up a fight. Here, he spun Saliba, and got a powerful shot off with his left.
He’s usually first to a rebound, a half-clearance, or a mistake. The mixture of doggedness, physicality, and ball-striking is a tough cover. He scores more in the box than he’s often credited for.
He presses with intention but not volume, and it’ll be interesting to see how that works out. He’ll walk, then snap into action when the moment demands it. He tries to lull defenders into comfort, then launches at them, and it works often enough to matter.
In attack, that extreme level of physical engagement never drops. His most endearing quality, by far, is what happens when he confirms that he has a physical advantage on a defender: he will cash it in, every time, without exception. There’s something deeply likable about how clear that dynamic is: when the matchup is uneven, goals are coming. Many players — like, say, Havertz — are superior overall Premier League players to Gyökeres in my eyes, but would put up lower goal totals in Portugal.
It’s also part of the problem. Until you really watch at length, it’s hard to fathom just how overmatched the lower-half Primera Liga centre-backs are.
I mean.
Nicely, he can add some value on the wings. By swinging left, he helps create space for wide players to cut in, which in Arsenal’s setup could make things easier for someone like Martinelli or even Havertz. His runs are immediate, especially when there is a chance after second balls or loose transitions. Picture Rice winning a duel, seeing space, and launching it to Gyökeres, who is sprinting on the shoulder while Martinelli flows through the middle.
His game thrives in instability: broken sequences, rebounds, errant touches, spilled saves. But also, the channels. It’s hard to overstate just how many of his goals are this: a tireless run over the shoulder, endless long-ball service, and simply outrunning the defender to the ball before blasting it in.
This is used to write him off, but the truth is that Arsenal do struggle against mid-blocks like Villa, and also are weak at scoring from high ball-wins. In a league getting more-end-to-end every year, these opportunities will still present themselves, just not at the levels he’s used to.
Still, Arsenal generally face lower blocks than that. When the block is higher, that is specifically because the team’s CBs are trusted to run and stay with players like Gyökeres. That running rhythm, the service could dry up at Arsenal, and in more crowded, structured games, his tools look blunter. The Pinnock Test.
As such, I think the ceiling might be lower than some hope. He’s not dominant in the air. Of his 39 league goals this year, against those overmatched centre-backs, exactly zero (0) of them were with his head. That’s #bad, and relevant because he’d start in place of Havertz, he won’t start on the wing, and those lineups would generally also be without Merino. In a team that has often relied on set plays and high launches, that kind of loss isn’t small. Gyökeres doesn’t replace that presence.
His ball-striking is impressive. He generates power off both feet, hits hard and early, and brings real danger with any shooting window. But there’s not much disguise. Some shots are too predetermined, and some of his best strikes require an extra setup touch. In the Premier League, that extra beat might close the window and limit his shot volume.
His link-up play is fine but has some rough edges. He can find a teammate, but doesn’t dramatically draw defenders out or shape space for others. He plays the pass in front of him. When the game slows down, he can sometimes feel mechanical: shoved off balance because he didn’t prepare for contact, too rigid, or clunky on the turn. I’d simplify it to say: he has extra-strong shoulders, but a weaker back.
His dribbling can surprise you. There are winger-like moments where he beats a man with control and timing. But it’s hard to say if those translate to a tighter, faster league.
He doesn’t scan the field often enough to reliably find ideal options under pressure. That part of his game is still reactive.
His playing temperament is elite. His penalty-taking is clinical and terrifying. His willingness to compete is obvious. He doesn’t shy from physical duels, and his overall application is strong. Age isn’t a problem in terms of performance (he’s 27 and built for the long haul) but it does place a limit on resale value if the fit isn’t perfect.
An interesting consideration is whether you’d want to pair him with somebody who can do some of the aerial work from the wings to balance things out. Antoine Semenyo is great at that.
And that brings us to the price. His floated prices last summer were extremely high, which was a hard no from me. This summer, he was reportedly available for €65m (£55.4m) w/add-ons; that’s at the high end of my threshold. It’s a reasonable risk to take considering his production. I also don’t think anyone should discount the possibility that he is a stubborn motherfucker who is just going to rack up goals wherever. But with word that the price is “still under €100m clause but not €65m now,” I’d be back to a hard “no.” That kind of risk is too hard to justify, considering the options, likelihood of higher wages than younger players, resale value, and other concerns.
Let’s say he doesn’t pass the Pinnock Test, and struggles against lower blocks — only showing his true worth in more even, end-to-end, transitional games against top sides. Well, those are Havertz’s specialty — running, battling, duelling. Can we reasonably expect him to be that much of an upgrade? Can we expect them to play together?
Still, I came away with more respect for him. The tools are real. The goals are real. If he’s fast, elite with his intensity, high-level tenacity and game mentality, and has good ball-striking, it’s hard to be too blasé about that skillset. He’s durable and ready for a Premier League calendar. I think he can continue to rack it up in a good situation. But if Arsenal sign Gyökeres, I’d expect him to be a tier below the top.
It’s a defensible path, but especially at the rates I’ve seen quoted, it isn’t the one I’d choose.
👉 6(ish). Samu Aghehowa, Porto
Samu plays with the hunger of a player convinced every loose ball is his. He has standout athleticism and tools as a mover, and he’s got a lot of brains for little blind-side runs and quick, tricky sprints. He’s aggressive in duels and gets shots off from odd angles, early touches, and awkward windows — not always cleanly, but with intent and frequency. That joyful greed to get shots off, and to score, is baked in. He might be the closest thing this list has to a Jhon Durán archetype, but I think he has a superior tactical IQ and feel for the game (though less alien ball-striking). He passes the Pinnock Test with distance to spare; a fully-formed version of him could beat anybody, any time, in transition or in a packed box.
He plays with bravery and elite determination, work rate, and off-the-ball enthusiasm. He’s far from polished, especially in terms of first touch, passing reliability, and technique in tight areas. His calma and dribbling still lag a bit. But that’s understandable for a player who didn’t come through a possession-first academy system. What you’re betting on here is intent, aggression, and tools. He’s constantly threatening the back line, loves to run into space, and is improving with the ball at his feet. He’s fun to watch run. He’ll be happily gliding past everyone and then still have another gear to switch into.
There are similarities with Šeško — both tall, athletic forwards who want to run through the last line — but Samu’s game is less tight-space and tekky, but more thirsty for shots. He can score in a variety of ways: notching 7 fast-break goals, 4/4 on penalties, 12 with his right, 4 with his left, 3 with his head.
If Arsenal wanted to go for a high-upside forward, who currently plays with a degree of chaos, but can be developed to do many other things, and is robust enough to start in the Champions League already, Samu fits the bill. Despite those similarities to Šeško, I think Samu is earlier in his path, and Šeško’s ball-striking and year doing deeper work may offer him a clearer path to produce while he’s adjusting. Samu’s first year in the Premier League could result in limited minutes while he works things out.
Anyway, here’s a superfluous Vieira goal.
I mentioned that Ekitike was close to Šeško for me. Depending on the actual deals on the table — wages included — there is a high chance Samu is up there too, over Gyökeres. (Don’t put too much stock into rankings that don’t have total deals on the table!) At 21, he’s almost assured to be a better pure investment vehicle. The question is about how immediate the impact will be.
👉 8. Liam Delap, Ipswich Town
(This one’s over, but I started writing this all before he went to Chelsea.)
Delap has raw tools: frame, aggression, a nasty shot when it connects. He runs hard into space and has flashes of being a true focal point. He’s still chaotic in his execution, and his finishing doesn’t always match the buildup.
There are things to like: physical profile, academy production, dribbling, transition work, intensity. He has a real ability to drag a team up the pitch with smart dribbles. He’s an extreme value, but is still very much a work in progress.
🔥 Group 4: It very much depends
👉 9. Ollie Watkins, Aston Villa
Watkins is a plug-and-play fit for this role. Though he doesn’t perfectly match some Havertz qualities, he offsets that with other strengths. His movement, work rate, and finishing combine into one of the most productive striker profiles in the league. His physicality and versatility allow him to offer consistent box presence while linking well with midfielders and wingers. Technically secure, strong enough to pin centre-backs, and excellent at manipulating the space between full-backs and the central defenders, he checks every tactical box.
The challenge is timing. Jesus is still recovering from injury setbacks, and Trossard is entering his thirties. A Watkins signing would leave Arsenal with three forwards aged 28 or older, one of them quite injured and expensive, and all with overlapping skill sets. In a league getting younger, faster, and more transitional, that doesn’t strike me as smart business. If the bulk of the bag has to be given to a young star like Barcola or Rodrygo, though, or if Trossard is on his way out, I’m on board.
Watkins would raise the floor, but without a younger option coming in alongside, the ceiling might stagnate in two years. It’s not a bad idea, but without that youth invasion to pair with it, it’s probably not the best one either.
👉 10. Mateo Retegui, Atalanta
I didn’t expect Retegui to show up here, but the more I watched, the more his brutally effective striker habits kept stacking up and appealing to me. He constantly slips into gaps at the right time, attacks the near post, and scores off first-time finishes. Nine of his first 11 goals this season were one-touch shots. His success rate in crowded boxes comes from how quickly he adjusts to loose balls and his consistency in making clean contact. You can coach patterns and actions, but some players just smell goals. He has a perfectly symmetrical scoring record: 10 left foot, 10 right foot, 5 with head.
Retegui lacks elite burst and doesn't have the tools to stretch a shape vertically. He’s not as dynamic in isolation or combination. But he’s strong, disciplined, and brings real edge. At 6’1”, 190 lbs, he can hold space in the box and win duels against most center-backs. His strength and jumping help explain why he can score with his head from distance, and his simplistic, battering-ram finishing shows in how often he gives himself a real chance on every shot.
He’s a poacher and a target who thrives when others do the creating. He has a huge range of outcomes, and depends on others, so I’d be uncomfortable with a big outlay, and that would likely be required after such an xG over-performance; I fundamentally don’t love paying up after those years, and his age and physical characteristics don’t make him the easiest player to sell if he flops. But I do suspect he might just be one of those classic goal-baggers. I’ll be interested to see another year of data.
🔥 The best of the rest
After that, we have a trio of players in the 26+ age bracket who would nonetheless be interesting. As with Watkins, these are three players who I may support signing if we went young, audacious and expensive with other playmaking signings. For example: if you sign Rodrygo or Barcola for LW. Or, if you went with Williams AND Xavi Simons, something like that. These three could fit the bill for dependable striker rotation:
11. Serhou Guirassy, Borussia Dortmund: Since joining Stuttgart three years ago, Guirassy has tallied fucking 92 G+A. His goal return has come from his brains, and is proof of why strikers can develop later. He offers clever, disciplined box movement — often attacking the blind side and meeting cutbacks early. He has utter simplicity to his actions. Combine that with good physical traits and all the dad tricks around, and he racks up high-value shots and takes few bad ones, leading to a top-tier xG per shot. He chips, taps it in, has powerful headers, and occasionally really rips it home (almost always with his right). He’s scored a lot of hard goals, and was near the top for Europe’s best aerial forwards. He’s not without limitations but his strengths are quite strong.
12. Alexander Sørloth, Atlético Madrid: This is one from the heart. Sørloth started 15 times and still generated more non-penalty xG than Dembélé, Lautaro, Kane, and others; 20 goals on 15 starts is nasty work. He’s a battering ram with surprisingly light feet, capable of quick little layoffs and one-touch combination play. His aerial threat is very legit (he’s 6’5” and wins 5 per 90) and while he ran hot this year, I loved his channel running for Real Sociedad and he’s only gotten better since. He's not a dynamic dribbler or playmaker. He's as pure a striker as they come.
13. Jean-Philippe Mateta, Crystal Palace: Mateta is a grown man; he plays like he’s angry at CBs for not doing their chores. At Palace, he has paired his physical tools with consistent finishing — showing sharper instincts around goal, particularly in 1-touch finishes and late-arriving box runs. He can pin defenders and win flicks, giving you a legitimate aerial and hold-up option against low blocks. But I have open questions about his play in more settled situations.
I still would hesitate to sign one in that group, because I want unstoppable superstars, or players who have that potential.
I watched more Yoane Wissa for this to see if he should be included in that group. I confirmed him to be tremendously likable and underrated. But I did conclude that he would function better in a more chaotic side with space to operate.
The wildcard pick:
14. Nick Woltemade, VfB Stuttgart: He’s a fun one. Woltemade has some real unicorn characteristics and has started to pair them with real production. His 6'6" frame doesn’t limit him — it gives him oddly deft agility, that he uses to great effect, not unlike Ekitike and Isak. Earlier this year I saw him sub on, immediately accept a throw-in, dribble past 5 or so players, and score the winner. His underlying counting stats are all great: goals, assists, dribbling, carries, everything. He managed 14 G+A in only 1,622 minutes and I think the technique on his ball-strikes looks really good. What’s the catch? He’s a little gangly and lethargic feeling, and it’s not purely aesthetic: it shows in those statistics. Other options play with more intensity and make more runs. It presents risk for a potential transfer to the Premier League.
I just can’t quit you:
15. Dušan Vlahović, Juventus: I’ll say it upfront. I’m sorry. Vlahović still has the characteristics of a lab creation of a striker, and his power and ability to score from thin angles make him a constant threat in transition or when fed early. He’s a strong penalty box presence and offers some verticality, but his game without the ball is too static, and he’s running out of excuses — he can justifiably trigger the Moneyball response: “if he’s a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good?” Despite all reason, I still could see him bagging 18+ goals for a well-oiled side. But I don’t expect the finances of such a deal to be workable.
🔥 Still more
Here are some players who are outside of that top-15 of likely signings, but may be interesting to discuss nonetheless.
This is not an exhaustive list, nor a conclusive one. In many cases, it’s just a summary of first impressions. some I’ve watched plenty, some only a game or two.
👉 Hybrid forwards
Aside from the very top tier in the list above, this is the group I’m most likely to move for.
Xavi Simons, RB Leipzig: He shouldn’t really be included in this discussion, as he’d be deployed elsewhere, but long-time readers will know he’s always been near the top of my stuff. I’d much rather get him than reach for a questionable pure striker. Like Liverpool or PSG, you can be sure you will be starting a dynamic, propulsive, high-level attacker in all four (five?) forward positions, no matter what.
Morgan Rogers, Aston Villa: Again, the kind of flexible forward I’d also look at before overpaying for a less-talented, more “typical” striker, but there’s a good chance of overpaying for him, too. It’s nonetheless simple: buy the best talents and let the rest take care of itself. Rogers is a poster child for what works in the modern Premier League — physical, direct, and end-to-end, with real drive on the ball. His dribbles and carries could unstick the static games Arsenal sometimes get mired in, and he could feasibly start at five different positions. He doesn’t offer aerial presence or penalty-box pinning, so would need to be paired with true box threats if played as a false 9. Interestingly, his metrics don’t pop as much as the footage does — but I’d still generally back the profile.
Eze is in there too, of course. But you know that.
Maximilian Beier, Dortmund: He’s putting the pieces together, and was a key flag in my BEAST piece a year ago, and just look at the toolset: top speed, serious ball-striking, and top intensity. His physical stats show that he has a serious motor, serious burst, serious threat: and the concept of “repeat intensity” is basically my whole theory of the game these days. The technique still needs to catch up occasionally, but the upside is exactly what you'd want in a third attacking signing, and he really came alive down the stretch. You couldn’t bank on his short-term impact, but you could bet on his future.
João Pedro, Brighton: Offers a valuable blend of pressing, combination play, skill in tight areas, off-ball sharpness, and tidy penalty-taking. His fluidity draws Gabriel Jesus comparisons — but I think people often miss just how striker-ish Jesus really is with his near-post darts, target play, and penalty-box presence. The reason he misses those chances is because he’s there in the first place. Pedro’s game leans more finesse than finish at this stage, but the ingredients are clearly there.
Loïs Openda, RB Leipzig: Relentless runner and pressure-merchant with a straight-line hunger for goal. Was the second-fastest player in the Bundesliga this year — quicker than Frimpong, Davies, Adeyemi — and it shows. He’s not a build-up player, and the ball can get bouncy under pressure, but if you’ve got a good structure behind him (Leipzig didn’t this season), he’ll break games open. One of the first names I’d want running behind a mid-block — saw him do it to Villa in the Champions League and wished we had him.
Ademola Lookman, Atalanta: A snappier, more transitional version of Leandro Trossard — but with more risk baked into the profile. Lookman’s knack for generating shots and touches in the box from wide positions is impressive, and he can also dribble, carry, and slip passes between lines. But at 27, with some positional overlap with Trossard and others, I’d only want him if others (namely Trossard and/or Jesus) were transitioned elsewhere.
Mohamed Amoura, VfL Wolfsburg (USG): His stats have serious heft behind them, powered by his pace and direct running style. The small, aggressive forward is terrifying in space and loves a one-vs-one. He’s fast, decisive, and fearless. He can hit a ball, and he’s hungry to score. Probably best suited as a second striker, an inside winger, or super-sub rather than a lone 9. As with Beier, he only makes sense as a third signing.
Kenan Yıldız, Juventus: This would be less about “fortifying the striker position” and more about relentless chance creation. The bag is deep: technique, body control, off-ball timing — and he's got that rare blend of size and touch. Still working out how best to apply all of it, but the ingredients are there. He’s going to be very good, and someone will get a jump on that curve.
Charles De Ketelaere, Atalanta: The tall boi shares some spatial instincts with Kai Havertz — a sort of soft-stepping connector between zones — but with a silkier first touch and less physical presence. He’s more second striker than killer finisher, and makes possessions feel more composed and intelligent. Doesn’t generate enough shots to be the answer to Arsenal’s box-domination question, but would bring real attacking feel and fluency. A finesse option.
👉 Value-seeking
I’d be pretty unlikely to go this route, but search we shall, with an open heart.
Georges Mikautadze, Lyon: A mobile, technically gifted, go-everywhere forward who excels at a lot of things: two-footedness, dribbling, and creating chances, especially in fluid attacking systems. He’s fairly quick, composed, and contributes heavily in buildup, but offers little aerial threat or defensive presence. My instinct is that he’s a tier below an Arsenal target, but a good player.
Gonçalo Ramos, PSG: A thumper with excellent box instincts and an ability to scrap goals from nothing, but doesn’t offer much outside the penalty area. He thrives in systems with creators around him and freedom to attack second phases. Some may label him a bust, or at least an overpay, but still: he’s only 23 and increased both xG and goals at PSG. There’s no shame in not starting over that bevy of stars. I’m a little bit open to him. He’s kind of like a steroid version of Merino-at-striker.
Vangelis Pavlidis, Benfica: Really caught my eye at AZ over the past two years and exploded down the stretch for Benfica. Has an elite feel for blindside runs, economy of motion, and finishing angles. A true penalty-box operator who doesn’t waste steps and brings close control and playmaking ideas. Scores in every way (take-ons, link play, pressing, aerials), but doesn’t pose much threat in open-play aerials and won’t burn past Premier League defenders. Had one of the assists of the season. See:
Jørgen Strand Larsen, Wolverhampton Wanderers: One of the nice surprises of the season, netting 18 G+A (non-penalty) for a 16th-place Wolves team. As another Norwegian striker, his game is built on physicality and was enhanced by a complementary partnership with Matheus Cunha. He’d pin defenders while Cunha floated and had his fun. He’s very off-ball, a good target for crosses, and strong on second balls. Fun fact: he’s shot twice from outside the box and scored both. Not quite rounded or nuanced enough for Arsenal, but still young and aging well.
Ferran Torres, Barcelona: A load-balancer across the frontline who had a very strong season as a rotational player for Barcelona. He plays multiple roles and looks clean when the game is in front of him. He’s had previous issues with ghosting from matches. I like him, but likely wouldn’t pull the trigger.
Moise Kean, Fiorentina: Had a great year and seems to be in a good place. Still a one-track mind when I watch: dribble toward goal and shoot. In fairness, that’s not the worst thing to give priority to. He’s got some curlers and good movement, but I’m not sure there’s enough overall game to envision him starting regularly for Arsenal. I only saw him once or twice this year, though.
Mika Biereth, Monaco: Hello, old friend. We scouted Biereth back in March 2024, and most of those thoughts still apply. He’s dogged and determined. Just a total nuisance. I still don’t know if he generates enough shots to make his scoring record sustainable, but whenever he plays football, he tends to score. He’s fairly similar to Mateo Retegui, though Retegui is slightly more refined with movement, better with his weaker left, and has a higher ceiling for aerial goals.
Victor Boniface, Bayer Leverkusen: When he’s on, he’s a problem in every sense: huge frame, creative instincts, real flair in big spaces, and legitimate dribble power. But you have to live with some funny touches and wild ideas. He’s not chaos-adjacent so much as chaos itself. That’s not a knock; he was one of the most entertaining players in Europe last season. Still, his body doesn’t look built for maximum intensity. At Leverkusen, he played just 41.7% of available minutes. As such, he can’t be signed.
Jonathan David (free): A high-floor striker with smart movement between the lines, tidy combination play, and a consistent scoring record. His Ligue 1 numbers are productive but propped up by penalties and featurning lower shot volume. Great presser, but I don’t want Arsenal’s main No. 9 generating just 0.38 xG/90 in Ligue 1. I don’t see him as on the level.
Jonathan Burkardt, Mainz 05: Generated healthy xG and solid overall stats for a successful Mainz side. Compact, direct, and intelligent off the ball with a striker’s sense of space. Normally I’d just say he lacks the physicality for Arsenal and move on, but I’m intrigued Eintracht Frankfurt are after him. They tend to know a productive forward when they see one, but it doesn’t always translate after that. Not for us, not now.
Tolu Arokodare, Genk: I love attackers in Belgium. Arokodare is a towering striker and aerial menace who had a hugely productive season (21.9 non-penalty xG and 5 assists) and is just fun to watch. His 8.44 touches in the attacking penalty area per 90 are elite. But he’s not it.
I don’t know where to put him, but Jhon Durán (Al-Nassr) shouldn’t be purged from memory. We don’t talk much about players coming back from Saudi, but who knows. Durán has a lot of the qualities Arsenal need. Every touch is violent, every run looks personal, and his ball-striking is elite. There’s still looseness to his game, and I do have some questions about his awareness and temperament. But I was always jealous of Villa’s ability to throw him on.
👉 Hear me outs
Two players who offer plenty of questions, but also exactly what Arsenal lack: chaos, shot volume, transitional threat, and runs.
Marcus Rashford, Manchester United
Darwin Núñez, Liverpool
I wouldn’t want to rely on either as the marquee signing — there’s too much risk — but if a value deal presents itself and they’re the second or third attacking addition of the window, I’m sorry, I’m interested.
👉 Young guns
Here are some young players with the current toolset to be rotational for good sides:
Emmanuel Emegha, RC Strasbourg: Only caught him twice this year. He’s Šeško’s rival in terms of athleticism. He’s 22-years-old, 6'5", the fastest player in Ligue 1, and scored 14 goals. He can breeze past defenders in the channels. There’s still a real “early days” to his game, as he doesn’t offer much playmaking or 1v1 threat yet, but it could click fast. As part of the BlueCo group (🤢), he’s looking Chelsea-bound in 2026.
Eli Junior Kroupi, FC Lorient (Bournemouth): Still just 18, and both the footage and underlying stats are pretty absurd; he was one of the best watches of this whole thing. In Ligue 2, he led a first-place promotion run by averaging 1.03 goals per 90 (!). A slippery left-sided technician with great balance and a knack for delay moves. He’s a sharp finisher and someone who can create all on his own. A bit in-between positions at Arsenal, but likely to have an impressive year at Bournemouth after he phases in. Another example of multi-club hoarding, ugh.
Evann Guessand, OGC Nice: His breakout has come with a shift to a more interplay-heavy, higher-10 role. In the two games I watched, he was fun and physical — constantly making runs to stretch and manipulate the back line. He’s a player with ideas. Somebody’s going to be lucky to have him; given needs, I don’t think it’ll be at Arsenal.
Mathys Tel, ???: I’m still holding my stocks. He’s one of the most dangerous young players around, with an early-shot mindset and serious athletic flashes that can tilt a game. Still in development, and I haven’t loved his pathway (he went to Bayern too soon), but I think Thomas Frank can polish that over the next year or two … unfortunately.
👉 Prospects
Ange-Yoan Bonny, Parma: One of the other players who really made me lean forward during this exercise. He’s strong, slick, and hard to knock off balance, with real fluidity on the dribble and some mature characteristics. When I say “hard to knock off the dribble,” I mean he projects in a truly high tier for hand-checking and withstanding contact. Still working out the timing of his releases, hasn’t shown much in terms of aerial ability despite his height (I told you, physicality is weird), and doesn’t generate enough shots for himself. I’ve seen very little of his box instincts. I don’t love neat comparisons, but he has a lot of Marcus Thuram characteristics, especially in the middle third.
Conrad Harder, Sporting CP: Big frame, quick feet, and improving with every game. He has the greenest of lights. After 59 league appearances across Nordsjælland and Sporting, he’s logged 1,973 minutes. His shots per 90? 5.16. I expect him to score a lot of goals next year.
Orri Óskarsson, Real Sociedad: I was really bullish on his potential when Real Sociedad signed him for what was a significant fee for them. It’s safe to say he didn’t hit the ground running. Still, he projects as a player who could give you everything at some point: goals, box efficiency, aerial presence, and enough connective work to make a difference. Striking is hard. Down the line, maybe.
Promise David, Union Saint-Gilloise: Football is strange. Two years ago, he was playing in the Estonian third tier. He spent all of the 2023–24 season with Nõmme Kalju in the Meistriliiga. Since joining USG, he’s exploded: one of the most impressive statistical profiles of any player on this list. He’s 6'5", has 99th percentile xG, 96th percentile shot quality, 99th percentile in shot creation via take-ons, wins a lot of aerials, generates assists, and has strong defensive numbers. USG can really scout ‘em.
I remember loving how he took his critical pen against Ajax:
Franjo Ivanović, Union Saint-Gilloise: Yes, another USG striker. I know less about him, but similarly, his underlying metrics absolutely pop across the board.
George Ilenikhena, Monaco: I’ve previously said he’s my top striking prospect. I think that’s still true, though I’m not totally sure. He’s a frighteningly immediate, two-footed striker with long levers and clear instincts, but at 18, he’s still learning the rhythm of senior football. The framework for everything (runs, striking, etc.) is there. He’s just figuring out how to play comfortably and aggressively.
Charalampos Kostoulas, Olympiacos: What a market. He just moved to Brighton for €40m. The kind of player who proves that scouting can be the easy part. Everyone would be convinced of Kostoulas’ talent within 30 seconds of watching a comp. But recruitment (showing pathways, minutes, development plans, financial plans, clear next steps, etc.) is the hard part.Karim Konaté, Red Bull Salzburg: One of the sharpest talents around, now in post-hype territory after tearing his ACL last November, which is one of the factors that helped tank Salzburg’s season, I think. I’m still curious long-term. If I were a mid-to-low-table team in Germany, Spain, or Italy, I’d be looking to scoop him up.
I had Franculino Djú (Midtjylland) on my lists, but this SCOUTED epic caused me to watch him. Still 20, almost every attribute is intriguing. Some savvy mid-table club is gonna grab him, ramp up his minutes, and make a killing in two years.
Two others that are on the list from that SCOUTED piece: Eliezer Mayenda (Sunderland) and Richard Koné (Wycombe). Gotta watch more.
I didn’t do a true-up to see if I’d forgotten anybody.
I won’t be taking any further questions.
🔥 Final thoughts
As you can tell, this has been a few weeks in the making. More than anything, this was just an excuse to zoom out and survey the wider striker market. I care less about the rigid rankings because they don’t factor in the details of the respective deals.
In terms of next steps, we can probably assume the top three are unavailable. To answer the simple question: I am, and have always been, #TeamSesko. He’s been at or near the top of my list for years, and I’m bullish on the signing. I’m also not under any illusions. His development stage has to be factored into the price and expectations, and people should have open eyes about the range of outcomes. But there is an ideal opening and environment for his unicorn traits to flourish, and the time is right.
Ekitike was a lot closer than I expected as a potential signing, assuming price and deal mechanics were equal. He’s so talented, so smart, deceptively strikery, and awfully productive.
I think Gyökeres’ game has been flattened and stripped of nuance. He’d be a good striker for most Premier League clubs, probably do fairly well at Manchester United if he went there, and could explode for a team like Atlético Madrid. There’s every chance he runs hot at his next stop and makes Arsenal fans second-guess passing on him. That’s fine. I’m fairly certain he’d be productive at Arsenal too! He’s just not who I’d choose for a larger investment. There are a lot of subtle risks that add up — lack of positional flexibility, lack of resale value, lack of reception of high (aerial) launches from the keeper, lack of headed aerial threat — that need to be accounted for. As a fan, it’d be fun to welcome him aboard. As an analyst, there are other ways I’d use the team’s resources, unless the price dips and he turns into a market opportunity, and reinforcements are secured elsewhere. His physical intensity, game temperament, speed, and ball-striking should make people more hesitant about dismissing him.
I think Samu should firmly be in the consideration set, especially if a surer thing is signed on the wing. Who knows, maybe Berta can make some calls.
Rather than go down the path of signing strikers who are lower on this list, though, I’d be more inclined to just find the 2-3 best attackers I can, wherever they play.
I’d be fully, fully, fully on board with spending big on someone like Barcola or Rodrygo, and then either:
a) signing another top flexible attacker and just going the PSG route, or
b) picking someone from the Watkins / Guirassy / Sørloth tier for max depth and lighter risk.
Up front, the dream is a top-tier threat (Barcola/Rodrygo), a flexible wingfielder-playmaker type (Simons/Eze/Kudus), and a Šeško-type #9. I know all three may prove unrealistic.
Going through this exercise had some clear takeaways. For one, this shit is hard: I still have a higher degree of conviction with other positions, so make your own conclusions. For another, every player has trade-offs. Being a striker for a top club is extremely hard, and very few master it before their mid-to-late 20s; there are so many rough-and-tumble, loosey-goosey talents that have trouble turning that into production. As such, the pool for who I’d actually sign is quite limited. There just aren’t many players who project well in this environment, because of how little space Premier League and Champions League teams give you.
Arsenal largely face two attacking environments: (1) physical blocks, and (2) the occasional, physical, more transitional game against top sides. For both, the team needs indefensible players. Indefensible dribblers, runners, final-ball-whippers, and dominating box presences. Players who run fast and kick the ball hard.
On the last note: we should keep our wits about us, but we may wind up with a player who has some galactic levels of that, and a player I’ve wanted for years. It’s plenty to be excited about.
In any case, there are options. Tick, tock.
You really spoil us. Thank you very much!
I've been eagerly awaiting this one for a while and it absolutely did not disappoint. Sesko's numbers this year had me second guessing whether he was the right option and this changed my mind. You need to be careful writing these though, one article gets into the wrong person's hands and you're head of scouting at Brentford