Through the fog
Let’s take a step back and see what we can learn from the challenging, maddening, and thrilling start to the campaign: tactics, vulnerabilities, growth areas — and where to go from here
“Life is a dream, a little more coherent than most.” — Herman Wouk
I was away for a week, so it was nice to see that nothing interesting happened.
Oh well, I’ll write about it anyway.
Let’s zoom out even further.
It’s been five league matches so far. Seven in total.
We’ll start with the bad. Our new midfield signing (Merino) was promptly injured in his first training. The captain (Ødegaard) was injured on the international break. The record signing (Rice) was sent off for the first time in his career in bewildering circumstances; you’ll never believe this, but Trossard was sent off for the first time in his Premier League career, too, in circumstances that were either completely bewildering or somehow totally believable, given it … all. Less surprisingly, one returning defender (Tomiyasu) was injured before the season started; another (Zinchenko) was injured in the first international break; another (Tierney) was injured before all that. Another defender is battling knocks as he gets back up to speed from an ACL (Timber); the new one (Calafiori) was injured in his first international break, after a decidedly slapstick flip-and-kick from Ousmane Dembélé landed on his calf; the stalwart full-back (White) looks to be battling something, too.
A previous generation of treasured Hale Enders is starring for other clubs. A new crop of teenagers has already engaged sicko mode, doing last-ditch defending in the North London Derby, scoring multiple goals in the EFL Cup, and getting yellows before ever contacting a Premier League football in anger — then getting subbed on to defend for their lives at the Etihad. The team played in Bergamo at one point. Raheem Sterling plays for the Arsenal, I think, though that may be the edibles talking. I was walking to work when, out of nowhere, a fully-kitted Gabriel appeared from behind the trees; before I knew it, he soared over me and headed a goal into a fountain. Concerned tourists checked on my well-being, but he just ran off celebrating.
Oh, and an actual child played goalkeeper for Arsenal.
There are other things, not least of which is the tidal wave of nonsense on the airwaves and across social media. But I hope that none of the above sounded too woe-is-us. The injury situation looks bad in quantity, but many rivals have it worse on prospective return dates (or lack thereof), and you have to persevere. There are a few situations in which woe is, decidedly, us — all my homies hate PGMOL — but generally speaking, my point is this: the start to the season has been hard and fucking weird.
In many ways, it defies analysis, and a lot of the inanity we see (and contribute!) stems from that. We do it anyway.
Analytics are only useful to prove just how much of a weird, tough grind it’s been. Analytics like:
Arsenal have the second-fewest touches in the league, ahead of only Everton. The team averages 221 fewer touches per 90 than last year. This is a product of a) playing ~20% of the season with ten men and b) playing some of the toughest away fixtures on the calendar.
Arsenal have surrendered the second-highest amount of touches in the attacking third to opponents, but have the second-lowest goals against (3).
Arsenal have the most yellow cards in the league (19). Last year, that number was second-lowest. The card count per 90 has more than doubled.
Arsenal have more second yellows than the other nineteen teams combined (2 to 1).
Arsenal played Man City three times last year. Across those contests, they surrendered 24 total shots. They gave up 28 shots in the second half of this one alone.
All of this is naturally going to warp our impressions. Arsenal are still undefeated, and still unbeaten against the Big Six in all of 2024, but you’ll forgive us if we’re a little disoriented with how things have started. But I’d caution against making any sweeping conclusions about play-styles and season-long tactical intentions (anti-football!!!!!) just yet. Everything has been ruled by day-of practicality.
If I must belatedly wade into the #discourse, I’ll say this:
It was bizarre to read several full days of coverage about Arsenal’s dark arts, and then sit down to rewatch the game — a game that started with Rodri selling contact within three seconds (and feigning a head hit), and ended with Haaland throwing a ball off Gabriel’s head. To be clear, I have no real problem with either. Let the chaos, shit-housing, and rivalry reign. They both did it in equal measures; then, when Arsenal were down a man, they tried to hold onto a lead. It’s fully expected. It’s fully fine.
Arsenal are indeed physical and aggressive. Neither instance of Rodri going down was an instance of that. I supported his outcry against the schedule, which is ridiculous, and it’s telling that he got injured right after voicing his concerns.
I agree with Ronay here, which is a point that shouldn’t have to be made: “First, there is no way on this earth or any other that English referees should be off taking paid employment from a state that owns one of the clubs they routinely officiate … You could make a case that Howard Webb and anyone else involved at that level should walk now purely on the basis of allowing this to happen.”
I wish I wasn’t able to copy-and-paste this from a previous post: “100% of everyone knows the game devolves once you start giving second yellows and suspensions for unwarned, ticky-tack, inconsequential moments (especially if we’re not talking about contact). You could do it three times a game. There's a reason you don't.”
The Howard Webb appearances and the post-hoc “reviews” of calls do a lot more harm than good.
Be harder on violent contact and more lenient on bullshit, please. Just warn ‘em. (Starting next year?) If they do it after that, bring the hammer.
I don’t like talking about this stuff, writing about this stuff, or reading about this stuff. It is unfun. Make it stop.
Still, the team should be proud of that performance. As Sami Mokbel reported:
“Arguably the most significant feeling to have emerged from the Arsenal camp in recent days is the notion that with 11 men, they’d have beaten City in their own back yard.”
It’s no small thing. Everything is to play for.
With so many stimuli bouncing around, I wanted to take a step back and really think about what we’ve seen. Without a doubt, I’d like to see more fluid, steady attacking play in the weeks to come. Is that a possibility? What is to be made of the tactical identity?
To better understand, I’ll start with some more straightforward, descriptive analysis: really just trying to understand the shape and intent behind the tactics thus far. From there, we’ll dive into where we go from here.
🔎 A look into the attacking setups
One of the primary questions of this period was how Arsenal would cope without the presence of captain Martin Ødegaard. Specifically, I was most interested to see the build-up patterns that were used, and why.
Let’s look at each match and see if there’s anything interesting we can dig up.
➡️ Against Tottenham
In this one, the question was even wider — how will Arsenal cope without the entire first-choice midfield?
Writing before the match, and right after the Ødegaard injury:
I'll think more. But my first impulse is "we need to compress the spaces." Mid-to-high-block, four-box-two in build-up, transition time. Suddenly feel good about our outlets.
…and here’s what Arteta said after the match, after players had dropped like flies:
“I looked at Spurs for four or five days. I had a super clear plan, how to do it. I prepared everything, the session, the meeting, etc, and then one news, we lose a player. Another news, we lose another player. Another news, we lose a player. So I had to completely change it. I liked the plan for the players that we had available, so it was a great challenge.”
The answer was a double-pivot. Here’s what we saw:
This is virtually the exact setup we saw against Liverpool in the 3-1 victory at the Emirates last season. I’ve blabbed on and on about that setup, as I thought it offered a version of the future — imagining a better athlete (say, Guimarães) in that CM spot and a player like Calafiori in that LB spot, I’d have trouble figuring out what to do as an opponent.
On the day, the structure was fairly sound, but there were improvements to be made in some of the subtle interlocking movements — and more than that, the execution and timing of passes.
You’ll see it here, in which Partey disguises the pass forward, Trossard attracts a swarm and finds the free man, but White biffs it. I wonder when White picked up his knock. These little issues are reminiscent of his game against Luton last year where his touch uncharacteristically let him down. We learned afterward that he was nursing something.
Below, you’ll see Havertz grease the skids in build-up, as he often did in this game. In comparison to his Manchester City performance in which some outlets reported that he had zero completed passes (I saw one or two), Havertz actually led Arsenal in touches in the North London Derby.
We’ll talk about Timber later.
👉 Against Atalanta
I was looking for a Nwaneri start in this one (while acknowledging that giving a 17-year-old his debut in a Champions League match in one of the toughest environments in Italy is a whole thing). The reason? Their aggressive man-to-man style needs to be moved around, and Nwaneri is our best central dribbler.
Instead, Arteta went with a more practical lineup that had some really interesting, swirling movements. Here, you’ll see a tight box form in the midfield, with Timber joining the interior pivot.
But Rice played much of the game as a higher player. The tough part about playing a man-to-man scheme like this? They’re aggressive and unavoidable. The advantage of playing a man-to-man scheme like this? You can move players where you want them.
A key part of De Zerbi style build-up is exploiting this aggressiveness — baiting the opponent as low as possible and then finding the exact moment to go long or find an attacker in space. Here, you’ll see the Arsenal plan — Jesus dropped low, Saka swung inside, and Havertz and Rice did corresponding striker runs. This, then, has two levels of “halos” or “coccoons” that can pick up second balls, with Martinelli and Saka being the first to arrive. Get ready for this kind of thing with Merino:
It can go well, or not. Arsenal almost had the personnel to execute this to perfection. Here’s an example of it going well — Havertz holds it up like Toney, Martinelli does an Mbeumo run in behind, and Sterling gives it to him directly. Martinelli misses the chance.
…but this has also been a source of struggle for Arsenal. For various reasons (intention, game state, always being fucking down a fucking man, etc), Raya launches goal kicks at the highest rate in the league, by a margin (85.4%). The closest teams are relegation dwellers (Everton at 56.4% and Ipswich at 56.0%). This has made things relatively predictable, which helps opponents shade one more player down.
But the bigger problem is what happens next. If you don’t win the second ball, your shape can be stretched out. While Jorginho can win the initial ball at high rates because of his anticipatory prowess, if he’s not there, he and Partey are forced to defend in space. This is not an ideal situation.
The other issues are just about a) variance and b) opponent quality. Teams like Brentford go long because they’re great at it, and because it introduces variance into a game. If you aren’t the superior team, that is helpful. But if you consider yourself better on paper, you don’t necessarily want to tie your control over the game to the bouncing ball. Sometimes the ball bounces the other way.
At Atalanta, the question was less about structure or intention. They’re just very good at fighting for the ball — it’s in their DNA. With the home side winning their fair share, the Arsenal long-ball strategy didn’t really pay off, except in spurts.
There was something I liked plenty though. My first choice midfield is just a boring Rice/Merino/Ødegaard setup: three players doing their jobs forcefully and clearly. But in the absence of that, I like this double pivot setup — in which Rice plays as an aggressive mover (on the left) for much of the game, and hopefully helps secure a lead, before moving back to the deepest role for the closing stanza.
After Jorginho came on, here was the setup.
Things got really swirly from there.
There is a throughline in most of the recent transfer business. I think we’re only coming to terms with what a perposterously good window that Rice/Havertz/Timber/Raya summer was. This summer, it was Calafiori/Merino/Sterling. The commonality is that they all have some physical advantage, and there is a whole lot of positionless, feisty, ambitious play from that group. Calafiori played LCB against Bolton and was dribbling up to the frontline before too long. Havertz is Havertz. But I think it’s probably underappreciated just how much Sterling will work to mix things up.
We have more Jesuses on our hands, is what I’m saying.
At 81’, this was a normal rotation.
There weren’t really any unexpected moments that caused this shape to unfurl. Trossard dropped into midfield, Calafiori became a #10, Sterling went all the way over from RW to LW, and Martinelli and Havertz (playing the Ødegaard role) were our twin strikers.
This is fun and cool. But not devastatingly effective yet.
Why is that? It’s not really because of structure or awareness. It really comes down to comfort. Look at this little sequence from Sterling, Trossard, and Calafiori.
The “technical empathy” is all off — every pass is a little awkward and stuttering. They’re not quite anticipating what their new teammate wants.
Even with longer-term members of the team, new connections are forming. The right is usually held down by the ever-stable Ødegaard/Saka pairing. Here, White and Havertz aren’t on the same page.
From afar, Serious Tactical Observers like you and I will make arguments for more movement, more interchanges, more fluidity. In reality, there is a balance to strike. Sometimes, over-fluidity can lead to exhaustion and openness in transition; others, it can make it more difficult to form rock-solid relationships on the pitch. Within pods, you have fewer reps with each individual player.
My diagnosis of the Atalanta game:
There were some interesting, ambitious things happening in build-up to combat the man-to-man scheme.
The team didn’t have a stable linking player between build-up and attack (i.e. Ødegaard). I stand by my Nwaneri pick 🤪.
New connections were still felt new and a bit awkward.
Atalanta did a great job on second balls and aerials.
👉 Against Man City
A feast for the eyes, the allure for this match started before the whistle, as Arteta submitted a lineup featuring both Jurriën Timber and Riccardo Calafiori. White apparently wasn’t fully fit.
One of the more interesting things was seeing both Timber and Calafiori pinched in to support build-up and leave the wide channels open if needed.
Along with last year’s preseason, this is a tangible sign that the right-back position could be Timberified. White spent a period fully inverting last spring in the “White-Rice” pivot, but generally speaking, Arsenal’s full-back inversion has been either/or: almost always on the left, a few times on the right. This shows that “both” is a possibility — which is fun.
There were some moments where play got trapped in the corner, the ball was hit out, or Raya cleared it. Calafiori showed an easy swagger to his play back there and Partey had his best game of the season. The midfield played in a fairly traditional double-pivot, and Rice had some nice moments of threading play forward, all while sweeping up counters. It was close to ideal usage.
I’m basically showing you this next clip to show that a) Calafiori is really good at finding lanes in the blind spot, and b) Saliba is ridiculous, period.
The ability of Calafiori to roam and cover behind at LCB means that Gabriel can venture forward with more zeal.
We’d have more information on these build-up shapes, but we were deprived of it thanks to the red. Raya ultimately went long 31 times on the day.
👉 Against Bolton
This one had less deep build-up, and Arsenal used the opportunity to fling more players forward. In settled play, it was an expected 2-3-5, with everybody in their expected place.
We’ll cover the Hale Enders in a bit, but one of the most satisfying parts was seeing Lewis-Skelly’s line-breakers translate on a bigger stage. This projects to be a top-level attribute, and he delivered these kinds of passes at will against Liverpool in the preseason. He finds the moment, he disguises his body-shape, and he weights them perfectly. At this stage, he may do them too much, in fact.
Meanwhile, Sterling did the exact kind of darting run that you sign him for. Martinelli is good at this; Sterling still has something to show him.
He power-crossed with his left, and there were sufficient players forward to attack. Jesus went nearer post, Nwaneri went mid-right, and Saka saw that and waited for the soft spot behind. Goal, Nwaneri.
Now, I’ll include the Rice shot just because.
One of the subtle developments in this period was the usage of Rice. Whereas his early-season usage looked like a soft-launch for Merino, this period has felt more Rice. He’s been used forward, backward, and in-between. He’s cleaned up messes in transition and also been active in the box. He’s still a little too far forward — as Jorginho being the last man back on a counter will show us — but we’ve seen his elite attributes platformed with more authority.
🔎 A look into the defensive setups
Here’s what Arteta had to say after the NLD:
“I didn't want to. I wanted to press much higher, lose the ball in much better conditions, higher up the pitch and do that. What I didn't want to do with certain players that we had today missing is expose ourselves to a game that they are incredibly good at. So, I have to choose. And the reward, I think on the other side, was much bigger than acquiring certain risks today against this opponent.”
Tottenham set up in their normal formation, but with an aggressive lineup. With Ange (correctly) deducing that Arsenal would probably prefer a closer defensive shape than usual, including a less-intense high press, he started two #10s ahead of Betancur: Kulusevski and Maddison. While not fully fortified in lower build-up, his hope was that this kind of lineup can hurt you in advanced areas.
Arsenal’s gameplan was less than certain. Without Ødegaard, there was mild confusion — and perhaps disagreement — about how aggressive (and high) to get with the press.
Here’s Trossard and Havertz closing out in the early stages, with Havertz motioning to Saka that he’d like some backup on Micky van de Ven.
But Saka thought that press wasn’t “on” and felt it was wiser to hang back. He looks back at Arteta for instruction. Arteta indicates that he’d like the team to push forward.
Saka relents and pushes forward. Within seconds, he’s proven right — he had no covering fire behind, and the free man was easily found.
Arsenal eventually got on the same page. They did this by settling down into a more stable shape, allowing pressure, and gradually turning up the press — and only doing it when the team was sure that everyone was committed forward. It’s common to assume that pressing is all about hard-and-fast rules, with a coach like Arteta magically joysticking everyone around, but it’s often much more human than that: does a player feel like they can close the space? Do they feel like, in this moment, they’ll get backed up? Do they sense weakness or solidity in their opponent?
The standard, well-drilled 4-4-2 took the main stage. When spaces are compressed, Jorginho and Partey’s running vulnerabilities are dulled. This shape is second nature to them, and they’re generally great at closing down spaces like this — which means they’re often better defenders against good teams than they are otherwise.
Increasingly, though, the pressing was more committed. Saliba ran up to support the shape, which allowed Partey to track the inverted full-back (Udogie) and Saka to push forward without leaving space behind. This is about as committed a press as one could expect in the circumstances.
Then Gabriel scored his 15th Premier League goal.
As time wore on, it became clear that Arsenal would lock things down low. Almost immediately after Sterling and Jesus subbed on, the old teammates were switching spots so Jesus could cover the wide area on a momentary rotation.
That’s when Saka went down with a knock and Arteta had to push his wonderkid into an all-out defensive situation in a North London Derby. Initially coming on as a right winger, Jesus saw that the winger (and underlap) coverage were the biggest risks, and immediately offered a switch to the teenager. Nwaneri was able to defend in his more natural #10 position (where Ødegaard usually would be) while Jesus put in a tricky shift out wide covering the crossers and runners. He deserves a lot of credit for this kind of awareness and leadership.
In a sign of what was to come in the ensuing weeks, we saw the 17-year-old making last-ditch blocks on Son.
Everything else be damned, I’ve watched enough of the likes of Vini, Messi, and Ronaldo to know that there are advantages to letting attackers save their legs for their attacking runs. As a result, I’ve argued for a player like Martinelli to get a bit lazier and cheat up more in the event of a counter. That’s all nice in theory. But from a team identity standpoint, it’s more straightforward to say this: if you want to play, you have to put in a defensive shift. The benefits show not only for the younger players, but also for those like Sterling and Trossard — who know they have to go all-out to see their name on the team sheet.
There was much discussion about how negatively Arsenal played against Man City. Before going down to ten men, that wasn’t exactly true.
In an interesting choice, Arteta opted to flip Partey and Rice’s positions — so Rice would be on the right, and Partey on the left. But he also flipped the responsibilities of the pressers. So Havertz (nominally an RCM here) would press like a striker, and Trossard would do a role more associated with Ødegaard. Partey would then patrol behind.
I was a little surprised by this, mainly because Akanji is a right-footer playing LCB and seemed the more obvious trigger.
Within five minutes, we saw how committed the team was willing to be. With play flowing to the City right, as intended, there are six pressers on the screen, including Saliba.
The difference, though, was that the triggers were relatively relaxed. One of the primary points of fragility in hybrid pressing schemes is when the team transitions from a press to a block. Sometimes there are fairly complex directives to keep the pressure up. In this one, it was simple: as soon as Man City found a free man, everybody fell back.
The result was a highly narrow 4-4-2 shape. Pep is incredibly stubborn about creating through the middle. Even if the opponent is over-committing, he wants to try to penetrate these central areas. Arteta, knowing this, kept the shape as close together as possible to deny a former boss his precious.
That said, there is a risk to this. With an aggressive lean, you can see the space between Calafiori and Savinho here.
Here, Akanji times a switch to an interior run by Silva, as we often see Ødegaard do.
…and Calafiori was regularly put in this tough spot, sprinting over to be completely isolated against a tricky winger. This was much of the Man City attack, especially in the first half. We’ll talk about how they exploited it in a minute.
Once Arsenal were down to 10 men, we saw the side commit fully to a 5-4 (6-3) shape with five different centre-backs (Timber, White, Saliba, Gabriel, Kiwior). If the City right-winger was holding width, the Arsenal left-winger would also drop back, making it a 6-4 look. Arteta completely abandoned the counter in an effort to clog up spaces as best as possible.
It culminated in a lot of looks like this.
…and that, my friends, is how you get this Kovačić passmap.
Pep caught some shit for just passing back and forth in this one, but I think there’s nuance there. When you are passing it like that, your ball is moving — but the opponent’s bodies have to move to close space. In a war of attrition, you are generally wearing them down, and are likely to open up more opportunities late by tiring them out. The final goal was hectic and random, but it was basically because Grealish was fresh and Arsenal players (Saliba especially) were spent.
That said, if I’m Pep, I’d take a few back-post crosses to Haaland over a few Dias pot shots any day.
Oh, and Raya’s been great, hasn’t he?
🚧 An out-of-possession vulnerability
As we’ve said, there are basically two places to attack Arsenal:
You can try to get past the full-backs with bursty, athletic wingers.
You can force Jorginho or Partey to sprint and cover space.
The first one is what it is. Arsenal haven’t given priority to bringing a speedster full-back like Walker to the club, and there are reasons for that. The existing full-backs can be elite defenders in a lot of ways, but will occasionally find themselves with a tricky matchup.
The second one is tougher. You’ll see it here.
If you watch that closely, Porro recommends a change with Kulusevski. He then falls back to make sure Martinelli follows him and clears out, taking him out of the play. The winger (Brennan Johnson) is right on the touchline, bringing Timber as far away as possible. Then, Gabriel has to watch Solanke in the middle. The entire point of this is to stretch this corridor as wide as possible and let Kulusevski outrun Jorginho into it. You see the angle Jorginho has to use to get back 😬.
This issue reappeared against Atalanta. Again, the full-back (White, in this case) is drawn out closer to the touchline, Saka is invited to give pressure, and Partey is dragged out to defend in this underlapping space.
After Partey catches up, he gets megged and called for the penalty.
…and it happened quickly against Man City.
Here’s the first issue, and something Calafiori will need to work out. He wants to crowd the receiver immediately, every single time, which is a good impulse to have. But he’ll keep having to add nuance to his angles, and perhaps a little pragmatism, to his defending of Premier League wingers. Savinho’s first touch burns him here.
…and Savinho is off to the races. There are a couple of minor mistakes in this moment that result in the goal. The first is that Partey should interrupt the carrier: dispossessing at best, delaying at a minimum, fouling if necessary. The second is the spacing of the CBs — Saliba can be a step closer to Haaland (Gündoğan can’t be fully ignored, but Rice can generally track him), and Gabriel can be marginally less concerned with Silva from my vantage point — he’s not going to destroy you on the counter. The focus should be on disrupting Haaland and disrupting the carrier.
Instead, Partey falls back, which makes him redundant to the play. The space between Saliba and Gabriel is too wide (they could each be one step closer together) and Savinho has ample space to carry into.
From there, it’s about individual talent: Savinho delivers a perfectly-weighted ball and a ruthless Haaland scores without a prep touch.
It’s a difficult solve. A lot of it is about distances. A lot of it is about pure running power — Merino and Rice can generally cover these moments. I have another thought that I’ll pitch later.
🔥 Fully Backs
As you’ve seen, influencing the proceedings has been the presence of two “new” full-backs: Timber and Calafiori. Their usage has demonstrated many things, but above all, they demonstrate the trust of Arteta.
Before the preseason started, I reviewed some Timber tape and tweeted this:
My lukewarm take is that Timber is gonna render himself undroppable for large periods of the season.
I said this because, while Timber is his own thing, he has traits in common with his fellow summer signees Rice and Havertz — he’s always locked in, tactically astute, communicative and duelly. They are the kind of players that managers get reliably addicted to. I just didn’t expect this to be so soon.
Timber’s introduction to the team has been nuanced.
As a reminder, this was the player we signed from Ajax:
He had 63 carries per 90. Haha.
At Arsenal so far, though, his progressive work has been more measured and secondary. He’s joined the pivot and helped move the block around, but has generally been pretty off-ball — culminating in his one completed pass at the Etihad. That said, he’s had his moments.
This little work finding the pockets was nice.
Here, you saw how comfortable he is in tight spaces against tough presses.
But the primary contribution has been without the ball. In the original Timber scouting report from before he signed, we outlined some areas of questioning. When he was at Ajax, and wasn’t paired with a wrecker, he could overburden himself in space, and was caught out a few times in that final year (though he was pretty impervious alongside Licha).
There were also some situations when he shone brightest.
To my eyes, he seems best when the assignment is clear, direct, and even difficult — which shows up in such a high dueling percentage. I’ve seen him face down the likes of Haaland, Núñez, Alvarez, Messi, etc — and he has little moments, but never looked too overmatched.
His wide 1v1s were a point of curiosity heading in. Timber hadn’t done a lot of full-backing, and Premier League wingers are impossible.
I expect a couple tricky moments in the future. But the early returns are very good. He is showing an attention to detail and technical focus in his 1v1s that is really squeezing attacks and shutting down wingers.
Some of Doku’s imperfections get the social media attention, but make no mistake: he’s one of the ~5 toughest players to defend in the world on a wide 1v1, and his downhill-runs-to-byline-crosses are some of the most statistically threatening passes in the league last season. Here’s Timber shooing all that away.
Timber has been more impactful out-of-possession than in-possession so far. While it’s logical to expect more influence with the ball given his track record, Arsenal could really use a touch-heavy deep orchestrator — it’s one of the biggest open questions on the squad — and it’s not clear whether he can fill that role quite yet. Above all, it’s good to see his agility, strength, at speed at the levels he’s shown thus far. Early days.
Calafiori’s time on the pitch for Arsenal is even more limited. His in-possession work is already showing its contours. The adjustment period is on the other end — he’s had some good headed counters, duels, and direct engagements, but also some adjustment. From his scouting report:
In space, there’s the thing we mentioned before: he can jump forward, see he won’t ‘get there,’ then get caught in between. This can improve.
We’re essentially talking about one thing: managing the first touch, or the big shifts, of Premier League wingers. Calafiori’s entire impulse is to close down space as quickly as possible, and he’s fairly accustomed to getting there. The problem is that these wingers are freaks and force you to pick your battles.
He’ll have to adjust, and he generally did on the day.
Meanwhile, his scouting report also included this:
His passing game is sharpest in deep build-up. He’s a comfortable receiver, and can use either foot to take the ball, manipulate it, and move defenders around … His body orientation usually leaves him with options, and his left-footedness is an advantage out on the flank … He has the “unbothered” quality you look for with somebody back there. He’s not looking to avoid pressure so much as generate it, so he can pass around it … He’s usually a patient orchestrator deep — it’s in these situations in which he displays the most calma. As he advances, he seeks out those 1-2s.
Within a few minutes, he was facing the fierce Manchester City press at the Etihad. This is no major moment, but you can see that “aura” is not just a codeword for his looks (though…), he genuinely is just so calm and unrushed in high-pressure situations.
There will be a bit of cockiness deep (he had a loss against Bolton) but you want him playing with this amount of bravado. It is his essence as a player.
This culminated in his wonderstrike.
I was asked in the chat whether this kind of goal was aberrational for him.
Here’s his career shot chart.
He’s scored three times at all levels from outside the box. His first career goal was a long, first-touch banger in the Europa in his second career appearance — an emotional return as a teenager recovering from a devastating injury. I saw a variety of finishing types last year at Bologna (chips, etc), but it’ll be interesting to see whether this evolves from “intriguing attribute” to “big strength.”
I am very bullish on the triangle of Merino, [Martinelli/Sterling], and Calafiori.
🦴 Dogs
There have been so many graveyard shifts early in the season. Pure Dogs Only. The centre-backs, of course. Timber and Jesus also come to mind. Jesus has had a couple questionable late dribbles, but his physicality may be easing its way back, and it was a lot of fun to watch him rotate out to Bernardo Silva and strip him multiple times, leading by example.
A lot of this comes down to efforts of those in attack.
👉 Saka
I think two players are subtly in some of the best form of their life, and they’re doing it while adding so much with their defensive efforts. White wasn’t at his nimble best against Tottenham and I saw Saka covering, tracking, disrupting over and over. Here’s Saka tracking his own mark deep and shoving him off the ball himself.
Saka is also starting to take free kicks. I’d personally probably give these to him.
…and he still flabbergasted me in a few moments. Look at him work his way out of this and generate a would-be opportunity.
Watching him play Bolton felt a little cruel. He was just moving around defenders at will, creating six chances on the day.
(Watch Sterling’s reaction time on the above. That’s something you can come to expect).
He’s been devastatingly effective, and racking up the assists to show it. In addition to the six goal involvements, he’s responsible for two others that went uncredited after deflections.
👉 Havertz
His work-rate continues to impress. Here were his numbers against Spurs, pulled from Adrian Clarke’s great piece.
For now, all I’d like to focus on is something simple: he’s really fast.
Watch White get spun and Havertz burst on the scene to save things.
Here’s a reference point. In the second half, he laid out this ball for Martinelli — and it was going to be interesting to see who got it (Romero, Martinelli, or Vicario).
It was Van de Ven, coming from the middle. He may be one of the fastest players in Premier League history.
But watch this little ball that gets hit out to him in space. Van de Ven has a similar angle — though Kai has a straighter line — and VDV easily cleans these up like four times a match.
Havertz won it, held it up, and this run of play resulted in the winning corner.
TL;DR: he’s fast.
👉 Martinelli
I get asked a lot about Martinelli, but I’m afraid I don’t have anything to novel or interesting to say. His overall effort and application is as good as ever. His dribbling hasn’t really evolved much over the past two years, though it’s a harder job. He’s overthinking in spurts, and missing some shots by rushing technique. I’d like him to steal a few shot-generating movements from a GOAT at the trade (Sterling). The end.
Over at CannonStats, Scott has a great, in-depth piece on the matter.
If he just keeps doing what he’s doing, he’s still a very good Premier League winger, and can be rotated with the likes of Sterling and Trossard. It’s all fine.
If he gets a cheap goal, everything could turn around — he’s not far off.
🎯 Oh, Gabriel
I’d be remiss if I didn’t talk about this gentleman.
I always go back to this Rice quote.
“If you watched him (Gabriel) train, he scores about three of them a day,” Rice says. “He’s so aggressive. We play against the kids, he doesn’t care. It’s like he’s playing in a Premier League match. He scores goals for fun in training. No wonder he does it in games.”
Gabriel’s physical gifts — his height, burst, aggression, and leap — are present for all to see. I do think that leads people to underappreciate his focus on the details. These are tough opponents who know exactly what Arsenal are trying to do, and have prepared all week to stop it. To combat this, he is noticing little things, reacting appropriately, and building a cumulative advantage as the corners build.
You’ll see him before most dead-balls, shepherding things before communicating with the other jumpers.
This goal has been covered everywhere, and I don’t have much to add to the discourse. Saliba and Martinelli crowded Ederson, Partey cleared in front of them, Havertz went back post, Calafiori was opportunistic, and Gabriel burned Walker. This was another cumulative goal — the smaller seismic events were recorded in the previous corner. Then, this earthquake.
Walker had switched onto Gabriel to cover for Doku, who had ceded the previous chance.
You can do your lip-reading here.
“Fuck! It’s my fault. It’s my fault.”
🐣 MLS and Nwaneri
I really liked this insight form Arteta:
“Those two are really pushy, really demanding! They want everything! They want more and more information. They love it, you can tell them, they are so passionate about everything. They see the opportunity and want to grab it with both hands. They are great to work with.”
Myles Lewis-Skelly built himself an awfully nice passmap against Bolton — with a lot of forward-pointing arrows to show for it.
There was so many positives there, particularly in how his line-breaking and physicality can translate with the senior team. He can still be overdirect, and the level should be remembered for this one; I continue to preach patience with him, primarily because he is newly 18 and he plays difficult positions that are punished mercilessly, and young players should be eased in whenever possible. It is abjectly absurd that he got a yellow before stepping on a Premier League pitch, and then made his debut in a 10-man shape at the Etihad against the champions. With all that said, his pace of development has surprised me at every turn, and continues to.
I will continue to preach prudence with Nwaneri — don’t overburden a kid with minutes — but I’m not sure how much patience is needed with his skillset at this stage. I am just overcautious about building expectations around a youngster. Don’t get fucking weird, people. But…
He’s ready. And his baseline is in that special tier.
Outside of the two goals, this was the moment I liked best. His driving carries are an attribute that Arsenal sorely need, but what I love most (and you’ve seen me write about ad nauseum) is the speed of the switch at the end of this play. We are too accustomed to routing that ball through three intermediaries and slowing this down. This got Sterling isolated in a nice 1v1.
🤔 Where do we go from here?
It’s been a supremely odd, challenging start to the year. While our Arsenal haven’t lost, there have been frustrations aplenty, and it’s been almost impossible to find a groove.
How do we get there? Let’s count the ways.
👉 Some normal games, please.
Let’s play 90 minutes with all of our players, and maybe even throw in some easier competition here and there. Thank you.
In seriousness, all the chopping-and-changing (and shitty game-states) has made it difficult for connections to build — especially when the team is 19th in touches, and has been forced to pack the box. A run of “normal” game states will do this team wonders.
👉 Unleash Calafiori
There are open questions about how steady and domineering Arsenal’s deeper build-up play can be. The hope is that, through experimentation, a certain configuration is determined to be an “unlock.” My guess is that includes Calafiori, Gabriel, Saliba, and a rotation of White and Timber at RB — with Timber perhaps going out to LB in a particularly tough defensive matchup.
There’s a real chance that Calafiori hand-fabricates some inventive solutions to those remaining issues. He takes some mutual adjustment — the likes of Rice, Partey, and Gabriel are going to have to get used to playing with an oddball. Let’s get the show on the road.
👉 Better connect build-up to attack
Right now, the team is going long too much, and not forming a coherent, steady link between deep build-up and attack. This hurts the effectiveness of both.
That is to be expected with the loss of Martin Ødegaard. But we can’t wait for him to return to improve things.
My interim solution to that is fairly simple: it’s time for an increased, but still reasonable, amount of Ethan Nwaneri. He looks mature, physical, and unphased by the pressure of the moment. His driving carries can push things forward, and he has an array of little line-breakers, runs, and shots that can unlock things for the front. He’ll only have to watch the deep losses, and correct defensive positioning mistakes quickly.
We’ll also want to be careful with minutes. But this seems like a good window.
Another idea, which I’ve floated before: Saliba in the Stones role, with Rice dropping back. Saliba has proven himself over and over to be capable of turning and line-breaking with defenders around him. Rice is very similar to Saliba when facing play. In the absence of Ødegaard, if things get stuck, it may be worth a shot.
👉 Defend the half-spaces better
In this pre-break period, in games where Arsenal have a clear qualitative advantage — including tomorrow’s game against Leicester — I’d expect to see Partey/Rice/Havertz, but I’d like to see a midfield three of Rice (6), Havertz (LCM), and Nwaneri (RCM). In those cases, the half-spaces will be tracked by the two central midfielders in the defensive pivot: Rice and Havertz. They can keep up with opposing attackers and guard against that vulnerability.
In tougher matchups (like PSG, perhaps), where one of the veteran #6s is likely to be employed, I think the full-backs should shade off the wingers a little bit more, and Martinelli can pay a little less attention to deep build-up — so that there are some bodies closer to that half-space.
I’m also always curious about a 4-1-4-1 defensive look, in which the #6 (Partey or Jorginho) stays central and the two midfielders (say, Rice and Havertz) jump on the ball-side and track the half-spaces.
I don’t have an extra bullet for this, but I’m looking forward to seeing more Sterling as he builds his physical levels back up. He looked spry and highly useful against Bolton.
I may come to eat these words, but I still like the current squad size and build.
I have some quibbles (the inefficiency of the GK situation, needing one younger controlling midfielder, and the injury makeup of the left-backs), and some aspirations in front.
But the entire squad is being used — and looks to be trusted by Arteta. Players are getting right-sized opportunities and taking them. Nobody is rotting on the bench. Everybody is contributing and could play on the day.
To navigate all this weirdness without losing is a feat unto itself. We have higher aspirations, though. I’m still frustrated at some of the bullshit, but that should go away sometime in the next twenty years.
In the immediate future, we have Leicester, PSG, Southampton, Bournemouth; after the break, it’s Shakhtar. It’s a fun run, and one that should offer more stable insights about the squad.
It hasn’t been clean or straightforward, but they’ve been fighting like hell. Hopefully the next few weeks involves less scratching and clawing, and more balls in the net.
Fantastic as always, Billy. To quote Johan Cruijff, “every disadvantage has its own advantage.” The sending off against MC simplified things for Arteta in that the team could focus on defending in the low block, and the versatility of the players in that half really showed. It is a testament to Arteta’s quality as a coach and Edu’s skill in building the squad. Seemed like, with the exceptions of Gabriel and Saliba, as people tired, each defender played multiple roles, from Timber moving from R to L, to Kiwior playing CB and LB and White playing CB and RB. When the buildup gets solved, the team will really be a sight to see.
It somewhat shows that while you were gone, my timelines are very polarized on what we should’ve gone with in each game; it also somewhat forced me to actually learn to identify the tactical patterns myself.
Never leave us like that again, Carpenter.