Today's the day
A few things to watch during the massive battle against Man City
You don’t need me to tell you anything about what today means for the title race, so I’ll start with the simplest sentiment I can offer: what a beautiful thing it is for Arsenal to be playing with stakes such as this.
Seeing as how I probably spent a little too much time this week diving into the question of how to win an aerial duel against the likes of Ivan Toney, this will be a quicker preview.
…and as I’m about to hit post, it’s been confirmed by David Ornstein that Partey is indeed expected to be out. That’s … not ideal, obviously. Please keep in mind that I originally wrote this all with the assumption he’d start, but I combed through the post to keep it as applicable as possible, and added a section in the bottom about Jorginho. I don’t expect the gameplan to change dramatically.
All told, playing a game with such stakes is nice, but winning would be nicer. Let’s get into some of the things to look out for today at the Emirates.
How Man City is doing, really
I pulled a big data report of 95 variables that compared this year’s Manchester City to two teams: the Man City of last year, and the Arsenal of this year. The information ultimately wasn’t all that interesting, so I’ll share the TL;DR:
Across the board, underlying numbers are a little down for Man City, but the margins are very slim, and ultimately speak to last year’s ridiculous heights as much as any struggles this year. Reports of their (footballing) demise are greatly overstated.
Even with the addition of Erling Haaland, they are less likely to pass progressively and long this year, and generate about 2 fewer shots per game.
Otherwise, their numbers—duels, recoveries, possession, passes, passes per possession, pass length, PPDA—are near carbon copies of last year, even with all the personnel changes.
As a broad generalization, Man City’s underlying numbers are either similar or marginally better than those of Arsenal. They pass more, have more possession, and are ahead in both non-penalty expected goals and expected goals against — but have conceded more real-life goals. As a sign of their technical ability, Man City leads the league in touches (795 a game) but has the fewest miscontrolled touches (10.8 per 90).
Man City has a lot more back passes and lateral passes, and is less likely to initiate offensive duels: Arsenal beat them in “take-ons” 8.48 per 90 to 7.36. Man City is more likely to lose the ball low.
Arsenal is 8-2-0 at home, while Man City is 5-2-3 away. Man City often start slow, winning only 30% of their first halves, but 60% of their second halves.
Still, after watching them this year, one can’t escape the conclusion that they look a little less routinely dominant this year, and can get into long sequences of possessional dominance that don’t necessarily generate chances, similar to a World Cup Spain. What do we attribute that to?
I’d offer three explanations.
Speed on the wings. Gone are the likes of Sterling, Jesus, and now Cancelo, and as a result, the balls to the wings are often switches of play that’ll get players like Grealish and Mahrez isolated 1v1 (rather than in behind). They’ve both been pretty great, but generate fewer oh-shit moments in transition than a Sterling did.
The Haaland conundrum. Any conversation about whether or not Haaland makes this Man City team worse has a fair counterpoint: I dunno, scoring 25 goals in 22 games is pretty good, I think? While he doesn’t necessarily make them worse, he does make them different, and Pep is still working to understand how. The central conundrums are this:
Without a false-9, there’s a little less built-in “Zone 14” dominance to their shape, so it has to be made up by others.
Man City is constitutionally about control, and passing to Haaland is constitutionally about sacrificing a little control to create chances. Said differently, you’re going to lose the ball more by passing it to him regularly, but you should score more goals. You can feel the tension of (non-KDB) Man City players pondering whether or not to override their programming in almost every game.
Backline depth and communication. There’s been improved depth at the CB position, and decreased depth at the true FB. With injuries to the center-backs, there’s been more rotation there, and while the individual performances have been good-to-great and the depth has been well-utilized, CB’s are ultimately tandems, and there’s a little less locked-in mindmeld between the players as a result. As we’ll cover later, they’re a little more likely to double the same transition player, or for passes to the midfield to be slightly off. It’s fine margins, but it has turned into goals for their opponents.
Next, let’s see how they might lineup.
A look at their shape and personnel
About an hour before the game, we’ll get our first competitive tactical information: the official lineup release is always an unpredictable moment with Galaxy Brain Pep in charge.
Last time the two met in the FA Cup, of course, Man City played a full-strength side against a rotated Arsenal:
Here’s an inconclusive summary of how that one went: the teams were evenly matched despite the nature of Arsenal’s squad; Holding and Saliba ultimately fared well against the Haaland threat; so too did Aké do well in neutralizing Saka; Ortega was pretty immense, and Trossard and Tomi may have had goals against Ederson, frankly; the high 1v1 press frustrated the Man City buildup; Vieira had one of his games where he struggled to get involved to the level of an Ødegaard; and Partey coming off for Sambi helped tip the game in Man City’s direction for a 1-0 win.
Looking forward to today, Pep is facing a choice in terms of shape that may be more complicated than initially meets the eye. The two shapes he is likely pondering are a committed “3-box-3” with a diamond midfield or a more standard 4-3-3:
Logic would seem to point Pep towards the right side for a simple reason: running a three-back without a built-in wide marker for Saka is … a decision, certainly. Moreover, as we covered, Aké did a good job against Saka last time around.
There’s a big tradeoff, however. The left lineup was chosen in a more confident clash against Villa, but it did a few things. First, it helped Pep play his most mature, well-drilled 11. Second, by utilizing Silva in the central midfield role that is usually occupied by an inverted full-back, it helped both Rodri’s isolation, and with the rest of the team’s control in advanced central areas that free up the Gundogans and Haalands. Silva tracked back a bit to help the defensive left in transition, but ultimately it was a 3-back, double-pivot, sans wingbacks that had a ton of control and directness:
I’d ultimately expect for Pep to go with the 4-3-3, but he may rue the relative lack of midfield presence from Aké and Walker, and it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see Rico Lewis make his way into the lineup. In any case, there is an exploitable element for Arsenal:
If it’s Aké in a four-back, it’s game-on for the press and the midfield.
If it’s a three-back with help from Silva, it’s game on for Saka.
If it’s Rico Lewis in a four-back, it’s game-on for Martinelli.
Elsewhere, Haaland is “reportedly” battling a knock, and if Alvarez makes his way into the lineup, there will be a lot more interchanging play up front. Foden could also start at left-wing, though Grealish has been on his best run of form in a Man City shirt.
Set pieces and what happens next
Standard set pieces haven’t been a particular source of joy lately for Arsenal fans. Many of them have been annoyingly fine margin moments like Ramsdale bumping into Tomiyasu and spilling the ball to Lisandro Martinez, or the double-offside VAR shitshow against Brentford. Some of them are more foundational, like Ødegaard getting muscled by Tarkowski, or a monthslong drought in corner deliveries (seriously, what is the last time an Arsenal corner hit an Arsenal head?).
There’s a lot of nuance to corner routines which may be the subject of a future BBQ. Much of it will make me sound like a 90’s-player-turned-pundit: just kick the ball better, and be stronger.
That said, there are still opportunities on both ends here. On one hand, short corner routines (and post-corner sequences) offer the chance to catch Man City out of shape and force them into active communication and switches, where they’ve been a little less impervious (more… pervious?) this year. The kinds of opportunities that presented themselves against their fellow Mancunians may reappear:
On the other side, Man City commits a lot of players forward. While they are generally better in the air, the two teams are pretty similar in terms of set piece goals, and the moments after a Man City set piece may be some of the best time for Arsenal to pounce in transition.
Who can forget what happened after that Liverpool free kick, going the other way:
This kind of opportunity can also present itself against Man City, which Liverpool exploited by kicking off an immediate Alisson-to-Salah ball that made Rodri fall down:
Martinelli (and others) in transition
On that note, a way in which Man City have looked more human is in their defending of fast-breaks:
After a seemingly endless run of double-teams and low blocks, it’ll be a joy to see Martinelli (and Nketiah) with more space. This is the kind of ball that Partey passed up against Everton that shant be missed today:
These showed up on City tape, including wide through-balls to Núñez on Laporte leading to a goal:
If it’s Walker and Aké in the back, Walker may have more attacking responsibilities in front, and be more exposed to the counter than some of their other shapes. If it’s a three-back, I would simply send outlet balls to Saka one thousand times.
Aside from that, I’d like to see the more expansive play that low-key showed up against Brentford continue.
Allan Saint-Maximin tore City to pieces in the fall with expressive, unpredictable dribbles that crossed them up. This dribble from the halfline resulted in a goal for Wilson:
On Eddie’s side, I could see him offering help in transition in two ways: first, by exploring the Man City offside trap, which should be poked and prodded at every opportunity, as the inter-team communication has been a little less solid this year. Second, in dropping deep, he can open up chances for “up-back-through” balls: Say Saliba pass —> dropping Nketiah attracting defenders —> back to Jorginho —> cutting throughball to Martinelli in space.
I’d also like to offer another transitional threat to the mix: Ben White (or Tomiyasu, if his number is called). One of the things that becomes more apparent on rewatches is that White ventures up for these jailbreak runs a little more than one may expect, and his teammates often don’t have him in their sightline. It might be a good way to generate cheap, unmarked crosses:
The press and man-marking Haaland
How do you create shots against Manchester City? It’s a tall order:
From live passes, they give up the fewest (9.73/90)
From dead balls, they give up the fewest (.64 per 90)
From dribbles, they give up the second-fewest (.59 per 90), only behind Arsenal
From rebounds, they give up the second-fewest (.82 per 90), only behind Arsenal
From fouls, they give up the fewest (.55 per 90)
So where’s the gap in their armor? Defensive actions. After opponent defensive actions, they give up the fourth-most shots per 90 (.5 per 90), behind only Everton, Wolves, and Bournemouth. They can be harried into mistakes, as we saw against Tottenham and others:
A strong press early, before they settle in and gain comfort, could go a long way.
For Arsenal, a lot of this comes down to having the confidence to man-mark Haaland so that others can commit forward in an aggressive press, as they did in the FA Cup:
While I’d understand hesitation after the Toney aerial show, I’d be inclined to play as aggressive as possible and go this route.
Haaland will always be a tough matchup, but is less of a savvy genius in the air than Toney (in fairness, almost everyone is). Otherwise, Saliba can match up about as well as one would hope in recovery speed, physicality, and height. Haaland is not especially natural at hold-up play and can be shoved over at the half-line when receiving the ball; the trick is to do it before he passes and cuts back into space himself, as Holding did with semi-clumsy effectiveness. Successfully tracking through-balls will be the order of the day, as will tactical fouls.
This allows Arsenal to go forward in a 3-2-4-1 high-press, with Eddie looping around Ederson to try and cut the pitch in half and pressure Man City into mistakes. After the recent run of games, it’ll be nice to see the Arsenal press back in full swing. If it’s successful, Ederson may opt to hoof it long, in which case second balls will loom large.
Mayhem and numbers on the left
As with Martinelli, there are two other Arsenal players who have a knack for shining when the competition is tougher. The first is Zinchenko, who is one of the more press-resistant players in the world. The second is Xhaka, who is skilled at exploiting numerical advantages that are less likely to be found against parked buses and more likely to be found against forward-leaning teams.
Against Brentford, Zinchenko took up more wide spaces, Martinelli was freer, and Saka even joined in on the fun. This all makes Xhaka his most potent self:
Jorginho’s impact
This is obviously a late addition to this piece, so here is my snap reaction: It’s a bummer to face this test without perhaps our two most pivotal players, of course. It’s also not too difficult to preach calma, as this is exactly why you sign Jorginho, who is comfortable in a game like this, will likely help with overall communication and flow, and doesn’t turn this into the write-off it may be otherwise. I continue to hold some reservations about the Xhaka/Jorginho pairing in transition, which feels a little current-Liverpooly. It's not a double-pivot, but it's still two slow dudes in the middle of the pitch. This may increase Pep’s desire to play Silva, who would be a difficult matchup on the dribble.
But like Zinchenko, Jorginho will work to out-Man City them, decreasing the odds of dangerous dispossessions, and keeping the ball away from them, which they’ll hate. A Gundogan/KDB midfield is not the biggest athletic test that could be in the offing, and Jorginho genuinely adds some interesting passes to the mix. However much Partey would be the preference, I’m still looking forward to seeing what Jorginho can do in this setup, and am grateful as ever that he's on the squad.
On first glance, he’s 3-0-3 against Manchester City with Chelsea, which is better than many can say.
Otherwise, a couple notes
A few other things on my mind:
Testing Ederson: The fact that a keeper can be elite in 2023 without being particularly good at saving shots is the kind of thing I intellectually understand but have trouble accepting on an emotional level. Still, that’s Ederson, who allows them to play with a Boehlyian 4-2-5 in attack. He gives up the second-highest goals per shot on target, at .37 per 90, and is not tested enough. While the gameplan against lower blocks might be to hold your fire until a lane opens up, I’d let ‘em rip against City and see what happens.
Xhaka and Jorginho joining the backline: It’s well-known that a 5-back can be Man City Kryptonite, as their record against Tottenham shows. Over the course of the year—Liverpool comes to mind—Xhaka and Partey have both shown a certain dexterity at joining the line to crowd things up, and I’d like to see that a bit here in settled defending. From there, Martinelli and Saka can join wide triangles to harry the wingers.
Dribbles by center-backs: Twitter is a bad place that I do my best to avoid, but Jon Mackenzie and Mark from markrstats had an interesting dialogue about how Liverpool use their CB’s to push forward and add numbers on the dribble against low blocks to unsettle things. Perhaps not the game to try, but I’d particularly dig continuing forward involvement by Gabriel, who has good judgment on such things.
Cutback crosses: With so many players in the opponent box, Arsenal has been deprived of one of their most potent weapons: the deep endline cross. That can be particularly useful against teams that want to keep their line high, because by dragging a defender deep on the dribble and cutting back, his teammates may remain a few steps forward, but everybody is onside.
Individual moments of brilliance: This is lazy analysis, but lazy doesn’t mean untrue. Games like this are often decided by top players showing who they are. Man City certainly has their candidates. Paging Doctors Saka and Ødegaard.
OK, that should about wrap it up — not a conclusive post by any means, but it’ll do for now, and game time is rapidly approaching. Back to anxiety-eating.
HAPPY GRILLING EVERYONE.
🔥