Where does Reiss cook?

With reports of a new deal swirling, a brief look at Nelson's career performances across the left and right wings to see how they compare

With this week’s long-read in the bag — an examination of the “flipped” formation, anyone? — and some more transfer-related stuff on its way — Declan Rice deep-dive, anyone? — it has nonetheless been a busy news week.

Xhaka’s likely swan song. New kits. A new Saka deal. Reported links to Sacha Boey, whom I covered in March. Other transfer speculation, nonsense and otherwise. The works.

But today, Art de Roché of The Athletic had a scoop:

Reiss Nelson is set to agree a new contract with Arsenal.

The expected new deal comes to recognise the 23-year-old as an important member of the squad as Arsenal return to the Champions League next season.

Negotiations are continuing but Nelson is expected to sign an initial four-year deal with an option of a fifth year.

I’d guess I’m in the same boat as many on this news. I’m so grateful for Nelson’s performances this year, and for the memories he provided us all. I’m excited that he rediscovered his levels, for his own sake, and would fully understand if he sought pastures with more clarity in playing time. He’s earned it.

While I was concerned that a longer-term deal was indicative of some sentimentality and a relative lack of ambition, every successive performance chips away a bit at that notion; he’s looked genuinely electric in almost every appearance on the year, often meeting and exceeding the levels of starters around him, and building a more trustworthy sample size. This is not aberrational, as he regularly showed such levels while coming up, and as such, he’s been attracting interest from the likes of Brighton for a reason — plus some links to AC Milan, Aston Villa, and West Ham.

But ultimately, my approval of this deal is conditional on two factors:

1. Will Arteta actually use him in important games?

2. Will the transfer savings be applied to big, beautiful new midfield?

That remains to be seen.

In the meantime, I was building a squad list for next year, and naturally threw Nelson on the left side: alongside Trossard, and behind Martinelli. Without him, the right-wing was still looking mighty thin behind Saka, but I told myself: “Reiss is much better on the left.” I then paused. Is that just a base feeling, or is that supported by evidence?

To investigate, I pulled all the career data I could — 9,880 minutes in all, ranging from Arsenal, Feyenoord, Arsenal u23, Arsenal u21, England u21, Hoffenheim, and England U17. This is from across a wide range of career stages, from youth phenom to disappointing starlet to instant-attack Premier League player, and as such, carries the requisite caveats.

But hopefully it gives a broadly illustrative view of his relative comfort on the left, middle, and right:

As you’ll see, the data is properly mixed: he shoots and dribbles a touch more on the left, and assists a bit more on the right.

But looking at the graphic in sum, one can’t escape the conclusion that the numbers are essentially even, which portends well for his ability to provide depth across the line.

Along those lines, here is a view of his last 75 shots:

How does this all track with the eye test?

Despite all his heroics this year, his most complete starting performance was in that brutal, originally untelevised loss against Brighton in the competition-that-shan’t-be-named. He generally just looked a cut above everyone on the pitch, shooting 4 times, passing at a 93% clip, winning 10-of-17 duels, and moving across wings.

This dribble and assist started while being surrounded in the Arsenal half. He looked best while cutting inside into the half-space from the left:

In many ways, though, his strengths are demonstrated by his most notable goals of the year. He loaded this pump with his right, and sent the defender flying:

Then ripped a shot with his left, which had ample power:

…and then cleaned up the rebound with his right:

…and in the Goal of the Season, he controlled the bouncing ball with his right, then switched his body shape to do the slow, callous wind-up seen ‘round the world:

That all said, there’s really no mistaking that he looks most dangerous in these isolated situations from the left, and doesn’t have a similar highlight reel in 1v1 wide breakdowns from the other side:

Looking at things holistically this year, here’s a quick refresher on timeline:

• His initial performances were on the left-wing against Bodo/Glimt, which were solid, if less descript than what was to come.

• His breakout occurred mostly on the right against Forest.

• Against Brighton and Zurich, he played mostly on the left, and looked good doing so.

• This continued throughout the Winter friendlies, in which he formed a winger partnership (Vieira on the right) that broke down Lyon and Milan, including a goal against Milan. He was then injured against Juventus, which interrupted his ascent.

• His awaited return was in the left in that famous Bournemouth performance. He’s been appearing relatively equally on the right and left since, but has been more incisive on the left; his RW performance against Sporting CP was his only real “meh” one in the lot.

• He was the most active player in the late stages of the 3-0 loss against Brighton. This was on the left.

OK, I intended this to be a shorter one, so let’s fight all my impulses and wrap up.

My broad thoughts

• Statistically speaking, his career performances across the left and right wings are broadly similar. There’s nary a cavern betwixt. Why do I write like this?

• Visually, he looks to be a better 1v1 dominator on the left. With every move available to him, he’s extremely difficult to defend.

• He looks equally adept at off-ball work (late runs, availability to the ball, relationships with overlappers) on the right; he’s certainly not uncomfortable there.

• Because wingers generally hold the width in the new Arsenal front-5, I believe footedness to be marginally less important than when we had bombing full-backs; as such, Reiss looks good as a wide playmaker on the right.

• Because of that role, I think there are more low-key depth options behind Saka than initially meet the eye — including Vieira as a Bernardo-type, Trossard, Jesus, and potential hybrid transfer targets like Kudus, Szoboszlai, Gonçalves, and others. I think this also includes Martinelli more than it has. The issue, though, is that none of these project to be 1v1 wreckers in the same category of Saka; that’s an enormous ask, but still a big concern.

• Regardless, footedness barely matters with Reiss — as he is as about as ambipedal as a winger can possibly be. There are times I have to refer to my notes to remember what his dominant foot is.

• He’s still 23, and has had something of a winding career. He may continue to find levels.

Beyond that, I know you’re all waiting for my analysis of the new kits. (Wait, what’s that? Nobody is waiting for my analysis of the new kits? Ah, well, nonetheless.)

I have no thoughts, other than to say that I think this one has real “indifference to the haters” meme potential:

Be good.

❤️