Final countdown

As the new season dawns, let's take stock of the preseason — looking at tactical updates, changes to the left-sided dynamics, and other subplots to watch as the campaign unfolds

Aug 16, 2024

“The intellectual advancement of man depends upon how often he can exchange an old superstition for a new truth.” — Robert G. Ingersoll

If you’re reading this, you’re no stranger to the pangs of transfer fever. I have the data to prove it: my transfer scouting pieces are among the most-read in this little library. It’s OK. This is a safe place.

But let’s be honest. This window has been relatively measured so far. One signing, albeit a fun one, has been made official: Riccardo Calafiori. A large adult Spanish midfielder, Mikel Merino, may be on his way. Will an attacking signing follow? I don’t know. I hope.

On the pitch, too, we haven’t seen the explosive newness of recent summers, which were marked by the debuts of inverted full-backs, false-nines, or signings like Rice, Havertz, and Timber being deployed in newfangled ways. This time around, almost every player has been used in a way we may broadly expect. Almost every tactical permutation had some precedent in last year’s campaign.

It’s been fairly smooth on the pitch. It is said that we don’t rise to the level of our goals, but fall to the levels of our systems, and the Arsenal brass, with justification, don’t seem to believe that the system requires a full rebuild. That system must continue to change, grow, and evolve — stasis is not an assurance of previous gains, and is a risk in itself — but evolution, not revolution, seems to be the order of the day.

This does not necessarily make things uninteresting. For the depraved type (👋), preseason may be more interesting to examine this way, because we can look at some of the subtle changes to the system without that shiny variable (new players) confusing things. That statement reeks of self-interest, as I’m hoping to intrigue you about the article I’ve put together.

I work as a data analyst, and this has become one of my favorite strips over time. : r/calvinandhobbes

Arsenal embark on a new campaign tomorrow. I am joyous about this. Watching football is fun and good, and this team is generally fun and good. Any hope is not blind hope, as there is ample logic to support it. Last year, the squad logged the shared-best goal difference in the league, not to mention the top expected goal difference (xGD) and the best out-of-possession campaign in Europe. A young team is now both less young and more reinforced. Lessons from last year have been learned. Simply running it back will probably result in the kind of season we would have dreamed about just a couple of years ago.

But thar be dragons. Things change, progress is not a straight line, and a trophy feels like a must. Injuries, variance, misfortunes, and setbacks await. The league has not been idle. Several mid-table clubs have been spending like world-beaters. We should be patient, but with two weeks left in the transfer window, it’s worth asking whether Arsenal have made sufficiently ambitious updates to raise the ceiling to its final height. Now’s not the time to evaluate that, really.

How are we doing otherwise? Let’s examine.

🔥 Reflecting on our objectives

Right after the season, I wrote Five Ways to Improve Arsenal, which turned our opposition scouting tool inward. This was an effort to identify tangible ways for the team to improve. The piece was less interested in depth concerns — Rice cover, Saka cover, the like — and more curious about the tactical considerations (and skills to carry them out) that may bring Arsenal to the next level.

I thought reviewing that may be the best framework for evaluating the preseason.

A progress report, if you will.

🍖 1. Improve Plan B

The first objective was to improve the attacking conditions down the left side.

On the right, Saka led Europe in touches in the penalty area. Relatedly, Ødegaard led Europe in passes into the penalty area. A jam-packed, though effective, right-side became a staple of Arsenal matches. The duo bobbed and weaved through an obstacle course, and our two best attackers showed themselves as such. Saka casually dropped 34 G+A across competitions in a so-called down year.

In all, the right generated 41% of the attack, compared to 33% on the left.

The left didn’t look like a well-oiled machine for much of the season. There were plenty of reasons for this — tactical intentions (“overload to isolate”), the Havertz/Nketiah/Martinelli trio, growing pains in the lower build-up, simple underperformance, and much more — but we’ve covered all that ad nauseam, so there’s no reason to repeat it at length here.

More fittingly, here’s what we outlined as the required updates back in May.

Moving forward, this left pod needs a few things:
More continuity so relationships can develop
More credible width-holding from either (or both) LB or LCM
Some more dynamic passing range and 1v1 take-on ability from this side
Ideally, you sign an LB who can credibly play in all three of the points in this triangle; I personally don’t think this has to be a pure overlapper, because that can result in the scenario with both full-backs holding width, and that can be a little open in transition. Your CM (Rice or another) should be able to do the inside two at least; all three would be ideal.

Continuing:

…and no, I haven’t fully written off the Havertz shadow-striker thing in certain matchups, particularly overpowered teams who are going to sit back. It’s easily forgotten that some of the bigger wins in January were with Trossard/Havertz interchanging up top. There just needs to be an intense focus on the surrounding dynamics, and how the profiles interlock with each other.
In sum:
Problem: Create a more threatening “Plan B” through the left. Turn the sides into “Plan 1A/Plan 1B.”
Solutions: More use of double-pivot midfield; Ødegaard floating horizontally; more stable relationships; one more credible width-holder (perhaps third on the priority list, behind CM and attacker); if Havertz is at LCM/SS, needs to either be at the tip of a 3-4-3 diamond or with a 9 who vacates the space

How have we done on this one?

In so many words: pretty good. At least in terms of sequencing, the left side has been the clear priority of the transfer window — with Calafiori being the first signing and Merino a concrete link. I was personally after a huge swing (and outlay) in that midfield signing, but alas.

New players don’t solve everything. A lot has to do with growth and tactical priorities. What we’ve seen may even be an overcorrection to get the left side flowing.

Here’s a look at the preseason so far.

There wasn’t a single preseason game where right-sided attacks outnumbered those from the left.

How has that come to be?

👉 More players

Against Manchester United, you’d see five players float to create a pod on the left, with even Nelson going over there to provide numbers, right side be damned. This sensory overload (with Zinchenko the widest player) allowed Trossard to move inside and Nwaneri to sneak behind the offside line to receive and turn.

And we remember what happened next.

In the last two years, a lot of Arteta’s tactical footprint has been about borrowing players from deeper lines. If Raya can effectively become a CB in build-up, and a full-back can effectively become a midfielder, then a midfielder can become an extra attacker — and help pin the backline, which creates space across the pitch. This is not only true in the “Havertz at LCM” lineups. It’s true with Rice, too.

👉 Rice’s follow-up album

Against Lyon, with the left side properly staffed, Rice was up in the left-8. As we’ll cover later, we should expect some closely-knit three-man midfields this season.

You’ll see it in a more expected look, like the below.

But you’ll also see it in fairly extreme examples like this — when he isn’t even on the screen. With numbers not needed in lower buildup against a relatively relaxed Lyon press, Ødegaard has dropped and Rice is up there pinning. It’s easy to envision Havertz or Merino having the same interpretation.

Interestingly, Rice had zero touches in lower buildup against Lyon. The only time he took it low was after a regain.

Here’s what you get out of that. Because Havertz is actually pinning at the #9, Rice wanders down to provide Zinchenko an option. Like in basketball, this forces a hand-off between the two wide defenders. Martinelli rips through the blindspot, triggers their miscommunication, and gets the through-ball from Zinchenko.

You’ll see how the defenders whiffed the handoff here.

You can see how high-and-wide his passes were on the day.

Tactical considerations aside, there’s a simple improvement in all of this: Rice is likely to get better at this role. For all the talk about how he played as a box-to-box #8 at West Ham, and is most comfortable there, he was seldom ahead of the ball like this. It was all new last year.

(Rice, it should be noted, didn’t play a minute at #6 in the preseason, though I wouldn’t read too much into that, especially with the potential Merino addition.)

👉 A return of Havertz to the “midfield”

The more interesting thing is the return of Havertz in that LCM/shadow-striker role. While we also saw it against Wolves and late against Bayern, the most recent notable appearance was in that defining, deflating loss against Aston Villa.

Here’s what I wrote after that one.

Facing a team like Aston Villa, there is a specific toolbox you want available. The short version is that you want passers and runners. Starting Zinchenko, Havertz, and Jesus makes a lot of sense in this regard; omitting Martinelli probably doesn’t, but I just can’t speak with too much confidence about the opaque world of player fitness.
My frustration with earlier iterations of the “Havertz at LCM/SS” thing is that the trade-off (he can’t pass like Xhaka) was not balanced with the reward (he wasn’t treated enough like a bonus target man, or peppered with far-post crosses, or used in twin-striker runs in transition).
Here, Havertz was treated more like a striker than my previous critiques would indicate. That said, Jesus was caught in the middle, structurally: he wasn’t quite enough of a midfielder (he was low-touch, only completing 13 passes) or a striker (he wasn’t always forward on these attacks, though he often was). With a goal-scorer now deep (Ødegaard), and Trossard at left-wing not being a pure outlet presence, it was too hard for this XI to generate its luck.
In sum, the final equation for this should result in 1.5-2 strikers. Against Villa, it often resulted in 0 (both players dropping deep) or 1 (Havertz lonely in transition). When it was two — which, to be fair, it often was — their runs weren’t always complementary enough to turn into goals (which would come with time).

Before that, I’d said this.

I still hold stocks in these two as a partnership up top, depending on the matchup. They're just so complementary in their movements, pressing, and on-ball/off-ball impulses.

After all, Havertz was in the LCM for a run at the beginning of 2024 that led to Arsenal outscoring opponents by a score of 16-0. Him showing up as an LCM on the lineup sheet wasn’t necessarily the problem.

This preseason, Kai’s best performance has come from the spot. It had a lot to do with how the duo pinned and coordinated movements to discombobulate the backline.

Against Leverkusen, Jesus was lively and active. While he is still rediscovering his sense of flow and timing, his immediate burst has fully returned, to my eye. But he wasn’t dropping and playing as a fully false-9 in that one — remember, he was caught in-between against Villa — he was a rotating striker, pinning the deepest CB, sticking up the pitch (he only completed three passes in the first half), but also moving enough for Havertz to find space. At his best, Jesus greases the Arsenal attacking gears.

This, then, isolates Havertz on a slower midfielder (Aleix García), which is the kind of matchup you can find fairly often. So many CBs are freaks these days, but almost everybody starts a slower midfielder. Havertz can beat that archetype to the corner once he starts galloping.

While Garcia is catching up, the box is flooded, and Zinchenko knocks it home on the first touch.

This kind of simple movement was seen here against Liverpool, when Jesus let it run.

There’s a concerted effort to address and attack this high-left side of the box. As we’ve covered, it was a sore thumb in the Arsenal metrics.

Havertz at LCM doesn’t feel like a default option anymore, but shouldn’t be removed from the table. Last year, he was initially hampered by growing pains, confidence issues, and a partnership with Nkeitah that wasn’t all that complementary. With the right characteristics (Jesus staying up and rotating so it’s an actual strike-partnership, ample support behind in build-up, space to run, a midfield matchup to exploit), it can still work.

👉 Hello, Riccardo

There has been another noteworthy change. People will use coded language like “gravitas,” but I will not: I’m talking about the handsome motherfucker.

In his debut in an Arsenal shirt, Calafiori was used about how we’d expect. Perhaps the most intriguing question was the degree to which Arteta would seek to rein in his swashbuckling impulses. After all, players like White, Saliba, and Rice have seen their deep dribbling numbers go down at Arsenal. There are reasons for this — deep losses are callously punished with the kind of line that Arsenal run.

While it may make sense for them, I’m not sure it makes sense for Calafiori. He has pausa deep, but to ask him to chill, bro is to deprive him of his very essence.

The initial signs were promising. If you look at his maiden build-up sequence, he didn’t even get the ball, but he floated up the middle and arrived in “Zone 14” at the top of the box. This does not seem to be a player being told to play a traditional wide left-back role.

Here, we see his growing pains and his potential. He and Partey both arrive in the same inverted spot for build-up — I think it’s actually on Partey to see this and to give him more space, but there is definitely going to be a mutual adjustment period for players around Calafiori — but the left-back nonetheless drags a defender in, opens space wide, and gets free on the exact kind of carry you’d hope to see from him. After that, his timing with Martinelli is a little awkward and the Lyon defender makes a good stab at it with his back foot.

We also got an amuse-bouche here. He inverts, dishes it off, and goes running. This is where his movements are unorthodox. He is not so much attacking space as trying to unsettle the opposition. When I was watching him for the scouting report, there were several times I thought “alright, man, why are you running there? You’re crowding the space.” And then he comes out of the other side of the train tunnel, free and clear. This was a bit like that: it puts the defenders in confusing situations.

The early signs? Arteta isn’t looking to fix or change him — but to embolden him.

I do think Arsenal fans should be patient with Calafiori’s easing-in process. Zinchenko and Jesus are expansive players, but they are expansive within the guidelines of positional play. Calafiori is genuinely up to some oddball stuff, and he may be overeager for a bit (which is fine). That does mean that the adjustment period is mutual, and Arsenal players, often so disciplined, are going to have to learn his tendencies, as he learns theirs’.

The TL;DR of this section? The left is looking better.

This is being achieved in a few ways:

Increased numbers, focus, and overloads to the left
Improved dynamics around Havertz/Jesus
More wide movements by the left-back (namely Zinchenko so far)

The other improvements are qualitative: Zinchenko, Jesus, and Rice just look a bit better, and Calafiori has an environment to patiently ease into. An LCM is likely on his way, and Timber should be able to offer help, as well.

This is the objective I feel best about so far.

It’ll get more measured from here.

🍖 2. Increase risk tolerance in the middle

Last year, Arsenal were unlikely to progress directly through the middle. The standard Arsenal possession involved build-up play that ferried wide, and steady advanced play that suffocated the opposition, but also kept things pretty crowded. Opposing defensive lines were low, and Arsenal rarely lost the ball (or took risks) through the middle. This worked for the objective of “control,” but the objective of tearing apart blocks with killer, unexpected actions.

We got some recent support for this argument with a brilliant recent article by Mark Carey in The Athletic, which showed that Arsenal were the most likely team to work around the opponent block instead of through it.

Here’s a summary from our piece in May:

Arsenal are unlikely to engage on the dribble through the middle. Part of this is down to the profiles available (this is just not a strength for players like Havertz and Ødegaard), and part of it is down to a philosophy of not losing the ball too much here.
This reliance on Saka to move players around led to those moments where things felt overly static and difficult to break down. I don’t like adding any expectation to a teenager, but our next wunderkind is pretty much the exact tight-space, confident, tekky, strong, central dribbler that you’d target to rectify this.
Problem: Not enough threat is generated through the middle
Solutions: Let Rice dribble more; bring in another carrier/dribbler; rely on a more defensively-solid LB to shield in case of a ball loss; unleash ESR (if not sold) or a certain next-gen starboy

I’d also suggest another remedy for a “good problem to have” — more play in the middle third, instead of the advanced third. When things stay so pinned, they can be difficult to unlock. When things are closer to the halfline, the block is easier to manipulate.

In other words, so many of the questions that get asked in advanced areas are answered by looking at some of the earlier build-up. The better the build-up, the more harried and unsettled the final third defending, the more dynamic the later arrivals.

👉 Updated build-up options

Here’s a simple way to look at one of the preferred build-up shapes against a team that is looking to press, as Manchester United did.

Whereas previous versions were a bit more straightforward — “Xhaka is in the pivot” or “Zinchenko is in the pivot” — this is a lot more situational and modular. The midfield three (Ødegaard, Jorginho, and Nwaneri) are fairly close together. One of them can drop down while the other pendulums up, and Zinchenko can also float into the pivot as the situation calls.

Below, I drew out an oversimplified view of some of the options. So much of it is about Ødegaard’s deployment, so he’s highlighted here.

So there are a lot of options at the team’s disposal. And make no mistake: these options are not purely strategic or situational. Sometimes it’s about vibes. A player feels like going into a zone, and the others adjust.

That is how you wind up with something like this four minutes into the game.

Benjamin White is the new striker signing.

There’s been another tweak, too.

👉 LB dropping

With Ødegaard dropping and supporting the build-up, this creates optionality on the left side. The left-back then isn’t shouldered with the burden of being a default midfield progressor — they can pinch in, stay out, go up, do whatever.

Against Manchester United, we saw Zinchenko use this to lend a lot of help as high and wide as possible. This touchmap isn’t really that much different from a more traditional full-back. That wide work helped Trossard get off the touchline, Nwaneri play free as a LCM, and a lot of overloads to happen over there.

But there’s been another change. With a little bit more regularity, Zinchenko and Lewis-Skelly have been dropping between the CBs.

Here’s Lewis-Skelly doing it.

With more options floating through the midfield, and the back-three sorted, White is freed from the backline. He’s clear to push all the way up to the RW — which, in turn, helps Saka get off the touchline as more of an inside forward. I think we’d all like that. This also helps Saliba feel freer to take risks and carry forward.

This role gets interesting when thinking of the future at left-back. I imagine this approximates the set of responsibilities that Arteta envisaged for Lisandro Martínez, who was a reported target prior to Zinchenko. He could dictate play from deep, Gabriel could handle the wide 1v1s against tough wingers, and the LB could jump up the middle in the counter-press (instead of being exposed to touchline runners). (For the record, I’d be less confident about Licha at LB after his injuries). I used to call for a similar setup against Liverpool: Kiwior at “left-back,” but playing through the middle, with Gabriel tracking Salah wide.

While Calafiori isn’t a pure CCB, this set of responsibilities fits him nicely: a little bit of everything, with interlocking coverage all around. I’d expect him (and a midfielder at times, everyone from Rice to Jorginho to Partey to Ødegaard) to continue dropping between the CBs and pinging it around.

👉 Hello, Ethan and Myles

You’ll notice my hesitation when talking about youngsters. As a Father of Several Children, my impulse is not to critique or build expectation of the u18 crowd, but to let them be.

But sometimes they force our hand. So we proceed, cautiously.

It’s hard to talk about “risk tolerance in the middle” without talking about Ethan Nwaneri’s skillset, which resulted in plenty of vibrant moments in the past few weeks. He got a couple hundred minutes in all.

Arsenal just haven’t seen many actions like this in the last couple of years.

Here, he turned-and-burned to set up Saka in a 1v1.

Against Bournemouth, he interchanged with Vieira and blew past his man on the touchline.

And there was of course that devilish assist against Manchester United.

Arteta had kind words about his starlets.

“If they continue like they are doing right now. There is no difference whether they come from the academy or we sign them from Germany or Argentina or Italy. If they are showing the quality that they have, the personality they have to play at this level... let’s see. Why would we put any restrictions? If they deserve minutes, they get minutes.”

There will be some growing pains.

For Nwaneri, the assumption would be that the learning curve is in the out-of-possession game, so I went back and watched all that. There is little evidence that the 17-year-old is a liability, however expected that would be. He was hesitant on one jump, but other than that, he was communicative, steady, aggressive, and confident in his actions. He performed at both RCM (where Ødegaard leads the press in a front-two) and LCM (which supports other pressers, then drops back into the middle of a 4-4-2 block), which is a tall order. It wasn’t perfect, and veterans will have him beat on some of the finer details, but it was certainly a promising start. He’s a smart guy.

The real learning curve will be where he decides to take risks with the ball. He is so accustomed to dominating everybody that he can dribble himself into trouble at times at higher levels. This is fine in the advanced areas. He just has to be careful about doing it too low.

I’d recommend caution and patience to all those who read this. In truth, though, I expect him to make a real contribution this year. I’m embarrassed to say more.

For Myles Lewis-Skelly, my immediate expectations are more tempered. He is somehow already on the level physically; his control touches are sublime; he can offer those rambunctious, Calafiori-esque carries; he also can really disguise his passes while delivering a line-breaker. But he is also 17, after all.

Unlike his agemate Nwaneri, Lewis-Skelly plays positions where mistakes are more costly. Defending big spaces is so tricky at this level. He is still learning the details of that trade: when to block lanes, when to run, when to hand off, when to engage in a duel, things like that. This doesn’t preclude him from a lot of first-team training, some scattered minutes and work in the EFL Cup and the like. Who knows, he may surprise and get more time than I expect; he is developing in interesting, not-perfectly-linear ways. The little cues are good.

But it’s also a question of need. Arsenal are currently too stacked at LB, and deeper midfield offers a complicated route. But Arsenal do genuinely need some of Nwaneri’s qualities, post haste. And the opportunity in that LCM — where the position is nicely fortified but not fully locked down, even with Merino joining — looks right-sized.

Where does that leave us for this section?

Ødegaard’s role is empowering more flexibility in build-up
The additions of Calafiori, Timber, and an LCM should increase the dynamism of the progressive play
Calafiori’s central carries can serve as a lock-picking apparatus through the middle; playing four CBs should increase coverage for carriers like Rice
If the LCM addition is Merino, he has a high risk tolerance in higher areas, and can generate the requisite amount of chaos (and subsequent counter-pressing)
Nwaneri looks ready to add to some of the central vitality
If Partey plays more this year, he will add to the central line-cutting, and there is more coverage for losses
Some noble experiments are likely down-sized: Kiwior as inverted LB, Tomiyasu as inverted LB, Havertz as deeper LCM

However:

An additive, advanced central dribbler has not been signed — and ESR has been sold
Lineups still run the risk of perpetual trade-offs: Zinchenko and Jorginho can offer progression, but vulnerability in space; Calafiori and Merino can offer physicality, but run the risk of stalling in line-cutting against tough blocks

I like what I’ve seen tactically. But I would definitely like to see more dribbling and power-carrying obtained in the market.

🍖 3. Boost team speed

After getting beat by some great runners in the Champions League, and failing to unhinge a few mid-blocks with squad speed, the message seemed clear: Arsenal need one more demon.

I’ve said this kind of thing a few times:

I don't know much, but at the highest of high levels, it becomes a little bit less about managerial tinkering, and more about stacking unicorns.

There is also this.

One big argument for an attacking signing: games don’t end; players don’t get breaks. For all their wonky squad-building of late (more LCMs!), Liverpool got something right: it’s always good to have an extra dynamic attacker to throw on against tired legs. Don’t be too precious.

While Liverpool had more games in the balance late, these late goals are a sign of the times. Having an extra runner is helpful.

For much of the year, Havertz didn’t effectively serve as a stretching presence, but once the calendar turned to 2024, he was a force — running past defenders in the channels and unsettling the line. Martinelli, of course, is the primary speed threat.

But other than that, Arsenal features a litany of players who like the ball at their feet and possess “Premier League” speed but not “Olympian?” speed. Trossard, Jesus, Nketiah, Nelson, Saka and company all fall into that category — but so do Arsenal’s full-backs. There’s not enough advantage to exploit.

This area is not without change:

Calafiori will add to the team’s running qualities. He has a real engine and looks to unlock the backline.
Merino would too; some say he’s running as I type this very sentence. His ground coverage could prove pivotal this season, as it’s something Arsenal lacked in the midfield bar Havertz and Rice.
Nwaneri brings a lot of effective game speed to the proceedings.

But while their skillsets are impactful (especially Merino’s coverage of Rice), that is not the chief problem. What is needed is one more player who can stretch and probe behind the defensive line for gaps. One more option for players like Ødegaard, Partey, Zinchenko, and others to hit in space.

It hasn’t been addressed yet.

🍖 4. Add ball-striking

We started this section with the following graphic.

…and ended it with this one.

Arsenal wound up a good finishing team, though they struggled in the tired days of December. I’ve long thought that tiredness impacts finishing quality, but the data I’ve been able to muster is noisy at best.

Overall, though, from 18+ yards out, Arsenal scored 16 fewer goals than Man City. In a tight title race, that is all the difference.

After giving him a little shit, I mentioned the impact of Phil Foden.

He wouldn’t be my pick for Player of the Season, but the truth is, he’s been great, and has had a major impact on the title race. This is for a fairly straightforward reason: as we saw in that final day, his ball-striking has been hugely influential to their season, always seeming to come through in the right moment. While running our opposition reports, Man City have been an outlier — they do better when they take further, off-target, “worse” shots. This is because they’re likely to get one in. If not, they at least generate a little chaos in the box.

Calafiori and Merino, while no slouches, shouldn’t dramatically impact Arsenal’s shooting prowess.

As much as I hate to pin any more expectations, I must also mention him here. Here is Ethan Nwaneri’s shot log:

Nwaneri’s last 75 shots (source: Wyscout)

You’ll see the breadth of accuracy in goals in the exact same areas (and situations) that Foden has thrived. There’s a lot of stuff like this.

Calma, however. I’m talking to both you and myself.

There are some other solutions.

Jesus has his well-documented xG underperformances. But he can strike a ball, as we saw here.

When I investigated this about two years ago, I found that a) he can miss tap-ins and b) he often dribbles himself into tricky situations, close to the goal and with all his angles shut down; the ball can lag behind his plant foot and inaccuracy can win the day. One of the thoughts I had then was that he should widen (and lengthen) his shooting range. I still think that.

Some other ways to improve:

Havertz being confident all year 🫏
Martinelli regaining strength in his final action thanks to better dynamics and shooting locations
Saka having more tap-ins from chances generated on the left
Vieira earning more minutes
Rice letting it rip, which we saw in preseason

An attacking signing would ideally have 2-to-3 of the following qualities: in-behind speed, 1v1 dribbling ability, and ball-striking.

Until then, we wait.

🍖 5. A few more big passes

In a lovely interview with The Athletic, Rice had this to say.

“The manager doesn’t like diagonals, really. He does like diagonals if you’re going to gain an advantage from it.
“So if it’s there to hit and it gives you an advantage, you hit it, of course. But if it doesn’t, he’d rather you play short relationships, let them come onto you and play around them to then create the space for him (the winger).”
“We’re really big on playing ‘same side’.”

Arsenal, as a result, don’t play a lot of big switches. Here’s what I said in the last piece:

Now, I’m not advocating for a huge uptick in this pass specifically (a switch is defined as traversing >40 yards laterally on the pitch). But I do think that some of the passes from side-to-side need to be a little bit more immediate, with fewer layovers on their flight.

Many switches are performative and don’t result in an advantage. But it’s hard to watch Toni Kroos play this kind of ball over and over without seeing its value against mid-blocks.

Have Arsenal been switching more? A bit.

Here’s one from Vieira.

…and here’s one to Vieira.

But I pulled the numbers. They weren’t that stark, but perhaps worth a mention:

Last year, Arsenal’s long pass percentage was 7.02%. This preseason, it was 8.17%.
Playing at a slower pace, however, that works out to be about 4 more long passes per 90. This is while total, lateral, and forward passes were generally down.

Meanwhile, the team has been sending in marginally fewer crosses. That said, I took a look at them, and all crosses aren’t created equal — almost any wide pass into the central area will count. What we did see was an increase in this kind of pass from Zinchenko, which is a welcome sight:

An improvement on the left does not impact the left alone. The right side should be able to sneak in some cheap goals, especially if Saka starts nailing in some headers.

A more expansive, killer-ball LCM signing would have put this over the edge. But there are also solutions from within.

🍖 Final thoughts

Here are some assorted thoughts. I can’t cover everything, try as I might.

We didn’t talk much about out-of-possession stuff because we didn’t see many big out-of-possession changes. They’re going full steam ahead with last year’s blueprint, just with more depth.
I think some of the conditions for Saka are improved, though not transformatively so, and he should be able to get a little more of an in-game breather, get inside more, and pick up some easier goals. He is also a better in-behind threat than he’s been able to show while shouldering such responsibility. He’s good at losing his marker when his legs are fresh.
As exciting as it was to see Nwaneri glob up the minutes, it wasn’t particularly encouraging to see Vieira without playing time in the interior. I’m still holding my stocks — he offers the exact kind of passes and ball-striking that would answer a lot of the questions posed here — but it’s fair to wonder about the situation. A good sign: I went back and rewatched all his defensive work, both in the preseason and last year, and saw plenty to like. His “need to bulk up” hasn’t really shown up on that side; he was almost too engaged and aggressive. It’s all about speeding up his initial actions in attack. Nothing in the actual preseason performances garnered concern, really — he nailed in a goal, remember — and it’s also notable that we didn’t see Jesus go out to the wings at all. Is he simply the backup RW?
Kiwior has been back at CB, which is basically where he belongs. With Tomiyasu out again, it’s hard to let Kiwior go. If I were a Spanish or Italian club in need of a quarterback LCB, I’d be preparing a bid. He’s got a lot to work with.
The situation around Martinelli has dramatically improved. Much of this actually started to get addressed after Dubai. Here’s what I wrote in the season recap back in May:
The timing of his season was annoying from his personal perspective. As soon as dynamics started improving, and Ødegaard started shepherding play throughout, and actual midfielders were in the left-8, Martinelli was battling some knocks and Trossard had rendered himself undroppable.
Later in the season, with Ødegaard sitting atop a defensive double-pivot, the captain was able to venture leftward with more sagacity. This kind of Ødegaard passmap would have been a sight for sore eyes for much of Martinelli’s early going
There’s a lot going on in his head right now, but his initial actions are looking as bursty and decisive as ever. I’m bullish on his shooting boots. It just may take some time.
I expect to see a fair amount of Trossard, especially early.
I expect for Timber to be eased in during the opening months. From there, I could see him rendering himself undroppable for large periods of the season. He’s too aware, too smart, too adaptable, and too skilled to be a late-sub for long. Where do those minutes come from? As a back-of-the-napkin kind of thing, I could see him getting 30-35% of the minutes at RB, 5-10% of the minutes at RCB, and 10-15% and left-back.
I’d also ease Calafiori in. There’s a lot of depth to use over there in the meantime.
There’s been plenty of talk about whether Arsenal are due for set piece regression. Follow Jake for all things in this domain. I haven’t done a deep-dive on this yet, but Scott has. My general feeling is that there was some kind variance and a lot of qualitative superiority, pushed along by some moves that the Premier League has now seen fit to outlaw. If I’m going on feels? I’d wager that the performance above xG drops a little bit, but the quality itself goes up (Calafiori and Merino taking up minutes of our weakest links, Rice getting a full season), and things basically cancel out.
Another player whose adjustment period is behind us: Raya. It should be beneficial to be on the other side.
I’ve felt Saliba showing a little more adventurousness and risk tolerance in lower buildup. He can toy around with a press, but he usually only does his little tricks and feints when he’s cornered. I feel like he’s proactively done them a bit more of late. Fun.
I still have some concerns about the load placed on Ødegaard as a low receiver in the build-up and a high-engager in the press. Those two responsibilities are far away, and not only will it lead to a lot of running this year, it can lead to situations where the press can’t reset after a ball loss. As effective as a dropper as he is, I hope there are some different options there.
Ayden Heaven is more promising than I’d previously understood. He showed a lot of interesting stuff, particularly his flexibility and composure on the ball.
A lot of the tactical possibilities rest on a trio of players: Calafiori, Timber, and Rice. If one of them proves they can dictate tempo, filling the void of a Zinchenko or Jorginho by stepping on the ball: speeding things up, slowing things down, or ripping apart a block with the right pass — then Arsenal can field a full XI of progressive duel monsters without clear vulnerabilities. If that doesn’t happen, it’s not calamitous — Ødegaard, Jorginho, and Zinchenko can do it — but there are just more trade-offs in some of the lineup selections.

The question ringing through the ears of Arsenal fans: is this enough?

The tactical tweaks, hard-won lessons, and promising new faces all point toward steady progress. Lest we forget that I’ve only mentioned the growth areas here; the existing foundation is an absolute monster. Yet, in the twin crucibles of the Premier League and Champions League, where expectations and reality collide, only time can tell.

A lot can happen in the next couple weeks. I’m sure I’ll have more to say on the transfer window as things progress.

For now, we watch.

Fuck yeah.

“Veil after veil of thin dusky gauze is lifted, and by degrees the forms and colours of things are restored to them, and we watch the dawn remaking the world in its antique pattern.”
― Oscar Wilde, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Edu's BBQ

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