5 things to look for during Thursday's return to Arsenal football

Kai's debut, Jesus's positioning, player "mentality" (ugh), intrigue in the pivot, youth auditions, and more

They tell me it’s silly to write a preview of a pre-season friendly. They tell me that last year’s edition of this game was captained by Héctor Bellerín and started by Pablo Marí, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, and Nicolas Pépé. They tell me that some key players aren’t even going to be there, including the long-awaited additions of Declan Rice and Jurriën Timber.

They’re … right. Mostly.

But you’re a sicko, and so am I. And if we’re not here to overinterpret things, then what the fuck are we even doing here?

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Now, there’s a key reason I said those naysayers are only “mostly” right.

Looking back at that contest last year, there was a lot of noise — but there was some signal as well.

Here are a few insights that proved rather stubborn throughout the year:

1. The team showed an increasingly high-press, high-intensity style of play.

2. Arsenal’s more depth-heavy lineup went down by two goals, and were not able to sustain the margins of the style quite as well as some of the starters who later joined.

3. Gabriel Jesus immediately helped breathe new life into the team after being subbed on to begin the second half, scoring an electric brace, and putting the team up 3-2 within 12 minutes.

4. Reiss Nelson was used across both wings.

5. Arteta went with a 3-5-2 while chasing goals in the second half — which was tried in very limited capacity during the year when down, and with limited results. Here were the formations and lineups used during that first game:

I don’t feel like typing out each player’s name (sorry).

Thanks to the DailyCannon’s Dan Critchlow, we have an idea of the 30-man squad that will be available in Germany:

• Goalkeepers: Ramsdale, Rúnarsson, Hein

• Defenders: Zinchenko, Gabriel, Saliba, White, Kiwior, Tomiyasu, Holding, Trusty, Tierney, Cedric, Walters

• Midfielders: Ødegaard, Jorginho, Havertz, Partey, Vieira, Elneny, Lewis-Skelly, Nwaneri

• Forwards: Jesus, Saka, Martinelli, Trossar, Nelson, Balogun, Nketiah, Marquinhos

Who are the notable omissions? Rice and Timber, of course. Apart from that, Emile Smith Rowe is returning from the Euro u21’s, Matt Turner is busy stopping everything like a Top Dawg in the Gold Cup, and Sambi has a knock (hold your comments, please). The likes of Pépé and Patino are withheld for reasons which have not been shared but which can probably be surmised. We’ll talk about the youth decisions in a bit.

Let’s see what questions may be given context from this game (and those to come).

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1. Will Havertz (and others) shift the dynamics?

Shortly after the closed-door friendly against Watford, we went through the highlights to look for any clues about future schematic adjustments. One of the things we saw was that Leandro Trossard started at the left attacking midfield spot:

He also had at least one opportunity to switch with the main striker at the time, Eddie Nketiah:

With Kai Havertz incoming, this is interesting for a couple reasons.

One of the first things to observe in the friendlies will be whether he’s locked into a particular role, or used across the frontline.

It’s only tea leaves, but this usage of Trossard seems to point towards the possibility of Arteta experimenting with the left attacking midfielder (LAM) being the more advanced of the two — and for that role to be so advanced that it can more easily swap with the 9, or fill vacated spaces behind. In our initial scouting report of Havertz from before he signed, we suggested that tilting the “box midfield” towards more of an angled diamond would bring the best out of him.

The more interesting thing may have happened further back, where the LAM (Trossard) joined the striker as the “2” in the 4-4-2 mid-block, and the right midfielder joined the 6 in the middle block:

This, again, may mean nothing — or it may mean that the right-sided midfield position (where Ødegaard starts) is potentially moving back in the block next to the 6 (who is likely to be Rice in many cases).

The positioning of Havertz and Ødegaard in the block is the trickiest question related to the former’s entry into a primary XI (I know, I know, there’s no primary XI). As I’ve shared elsewhere, if they start together, I’d tend to lean toward Ødegaard joining the middle block over Havertz for a couple reasons:

• While they are similarly high-quality pressers, Ødegaard probably projects better as a communicative, disciplined team defender — whereas Havertz can have trouble turning his pressing instincts off (often sprinting, wandering, and putting legs in regardless of situation — all of which can serve him well up the pitch). I’m receptive to the argument that Havertz can be trained to sit more, but think he may have to override his instincts too much to join a defensive pivot.

• The off-ball, creative, spatial running of Havertz is perhaps his best quality. This gets him cheating up front and interacting with Jesus as much to do it. (Side note, as a warning: get ready for a good deal of offside calls against him.)

• Ødegaard runs as much as any player in the game — so him playing deeper does not preclude him getting further up in settled possession. Upon a repossession, this also gives him the option to ping balls to runners like Martinelli and Havertz from deeper positions.

• This potentially gets Rice over to the side with Zinchenko, which increases solidity over there.

The counterargument to all of this is pretty simple. Ødegaard’s role was more advanced last year — and there’s a direct correlation with him turning into one of the better players in the world:

My general sense is that we’re probably over-indexing this as a concern. In a dominant-possession side, the mid-block isn’t even used all that often. When it is, it doesn’t preclude Ødegaard from continuing to play in his happy place in settled attacking sequences.

The big question is whether an increased role in build-up drags Ødegaard’s production down, and whether or not that is offset elsewhere — or whether the likes of Rice and Timber can help Ødegaard push forward regardless. I believe it can ultimately be offset, but that’s an open, and relatively significant, question.

Interestingly, I think this jives with my priors about the possible usage of Vieira and Smith Rowe as well (Alert! Alert! Confirmation bias! Alert!). Long-term, I marginally prefer Vieira as an attacking midfielder on the left, and ESR on the right. Before we were ever linked with Havertz, I’ve said that Vieira has sneaky raumdeuter qualities: he can be a minimum-touch, maximum-chances type of player, and looks good in the advanced press. I also like ESR in the mid-block: his lack of jumpiness makes him a good lane-plugger, and having him interact with Saka while getting on the ball more is a good use of his skills. Likewise, the more Trossard gets into the box near the striker (at a more advanced LAM), the better.

I do have niggling worries about set piece strength with attacking midfield pairings of Trossard/Ødegaard, Vieira/Ødegaard, etc. It’ll be too easy for a big CB to find one of them to isolate, which is why Havertz brings such an additive quality.

But there are a lot of benefits. In phase-two progression, there may be certain automatic rotations that become lethal. Here’s one I’ve got my eye on:

Jesus drags one CB down, Havertz sprints behind with the other. Space everywhere.

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2. Where will Jesus play?

Gabriel Jesus did an interview with Denilson last week, and a reddit user (u/GGFrostKaiser) was kind enough to share a summary. Related to his positioning, here’s what Jesus discussed:

Jesus mentioned he does not care about money or where he plays, the most important thing is the project. And mentioned how Edu and Mikel were pivotal in his decision to move to Arsenal. They made a great pitch and made him feel at ease with playing time and position. Jesus said one of his main prerequisites was to come in and play as a number 9 … Jesus said he wanted to come in to play as the number 9, but throughout the interview he mentioned several times he is a team player and he would play anywhere.

This preference is also seen in his chosen number for both club and country: #9.

This tacit agreement was my suspicion for much of last year. Despite the lack of depth at right-wing, Jesus never formally swung out wide until the last match of the season. This was even true when it clearly would have made more sense, like when Nketiah started at left-wing against PSV in Europa. You got the sense of a manager wanting to prove to a player that he wouldn’t be jerked around.

But perhaps some well-earned trust started paying dividends. Jesus played the last 16 minutes of the season out at right-wing, and Nkeitah featured centrally. That is the setup that Arteta chose against Watford.

Having this option on the table makes all the sense in the world. With striker depth suddenly fortified — with Jesus, Nketiah, Trossard, Havertz, Martinelli and even Balogun currently in the ranks — having Jesus as more regular right-wing cover seems preferable to dropping a bunch of coin on a new one at the moment (that is, unless a bunch of successful departures happen).

There’s another reason why it may make sense. With the possibility of the team inverting from the right more often (with Timber), the responsibilities of the winger and those up the pitch change as well. Instead of relying on infrequent overlaps, the RW will be “relationist,” and heavily rotate with all those around. This suits the game of Jesus well.

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2a. A brief aside on “mentality”

This also gives me a handy excuse to talk about the concept of “mentality,” as the word keeps coming up in discussions of Folarin Balogun, Albert Sambi Lokonga, and Gabriel Jesus (after his comments about unhappiness with Pep) — or even the likes of Havertz and Cancelo.

My position is this. Unless you’re traveling with a player, training with a player, meeting with a player, or otherwise have a direct relationship with a player — any discussion of their mentality must begin with an admission of how little you know. And even then, it may still be subject to certain shortcuts and personal biases.

Why is that the case? Well, let’s think about how we get information as fans:

• In many cases, we hear rumblings through the press. These narratives are often shaped by players, managers, agents, or staff who share that information outside of the club — not to mention the clickbaity, often-mistranslated headline writers who then seek to take things out of context and exploit their findings. They all have their own motives: good, bad, virtuous, petty, and power-hungry.

• From there, we gain understanding through a player’s social media. In your own experiences, how well does a person’s savviness at social media correlate with some form of zenlike mental clarity? In my experiences, not much. Still, that’s where #narratives are shaped, even though a person’s social media presence can never be considered a full (or even accurate) encapsulation of them as a person.

• Then, anxiety-ridden internet commenters react and overreact to the quotes, clips, and social media posts to come — usually finding the most meme-worthy thing to focus on, helping disproportionately embed it into the public consciousness. Again, I’m not certain this population can be considered a Kloppian ideal of a mentality monster.

…and some assumptions:

• There is no one form of “strong mentality.” People are many; people contain multitudes; motivation takes different forms.

• Sometimes people act wronged because they were wronged.

• Players play all year with minimal breaks. What is often seen as a mentality issue is probably just an undisclosed injury.

• Players go through all kinds of personal shit that we never hear about.

Now, the tricky thing is that mentality matters so much in this game, and would be one of the primary things I’d look for as a manager, coach, or sporting director. It is, indeed, the decisive factor between many players making it (or not). As such, first-hand, accurate, double-confirmed, quality intel should be prized at the club level.

From our vantage point, though, we can only watch how players sprint after balls; we can judge how much they communicate; we can look at their body language. Whatever, it’s all fair game. I’m just politely suggesting that we remain steadfastly aware of how incomplete our picture is.

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2b. A brief aside on the output of Jesus

Here’s another quick aside.

While it’s true that Jesus has a style of chance-creation — tight-space, chest-over-ball dribbles in the box — that makes it difficult to get off controlled shots, I still think that the relative focus on his finishing feels out-of-proportion. To blow a chance, you have to create one. Voluminous chance creation is a rare quality, and Jesus is absolutely elite at it.

Richarlison is the same age as Jesus, for instance, and it should be said that Jesus has played for better teams and played the equivalent of ~19 more 90’s. But looking at his career, people tend to gravitate to the right-most numbers (xG underperformance of -11.8), instead of the other number (+40 more xG!):

If you’re wondering why the goal numbers are so much higher than the xG, there isn’t xG data from Brazil or Carabao ties.

In his career, across club competitions, Jesus has scored 145 goals — 52 more than Richarlison, to go along with 40 more assists (68 to 28).

All of that results in 213 club G+A for a player who turned 26 in April. This is, supposedly, the downside of his game.

Meanwhile, look at everything else:

Yeah, I think he can be a league-winning forward.

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3. What happens at right-back?

On Thursday, it will be interesting to see what happens in the midfield pivot, particularly if Zinchenko is still returning to full-strength.

Here are some questions that we’ll get intel on:

• If Zinchenko isn’t on the pitch, where does the pivot come from?

• Are the likes of Tomiyasu and Tierney still options to join the midfield in build-up at all, or is that experiment over, and they will stay wide?

• Does Thomas see any more time at right-back?

• If not, could Benjamin White also pinch in more to start demoing right-back inversion, or is that possibility earmarked for Thomas and Timber alone?

• Does White get any time at CB, potentially tipping towards a more flexible, plug-in role this year?

We’ll see.

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4. Can a #youth work his way into the team?

The traveling squad was notable for its youth inclusions. Reuell Walters, Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri are all joining the team, and should see the pitch on Thursday.

Go bookmark Jeorge Bird’s site on Arsenal youth if you haven’t already. As he writes:

Given that the first-team squad is quite large at present and with further arrivals imminent in Jurrien Timber and Declan Rice, it seems unlikely that many youth players will head to the US, so Walters, Lewis-Skelly and Nwaneri will be especially determined to stand out in the hope of remaining with the group for the duration of pre-season.

Reuell Walters is a physically-advanced CB/RB prospect who seems to be verging on readiness, whatever that means to you. With MLS and Nwaneri, we must be patient, as all logic would point us against any regular contributions to the senior squad any time soon. Do I have a sneaking suspicion that one of them may bust the odds and get some cup-style time in the next year or two? Don’t punch me, but I kinda do. As we’ve seen with Warren Zaïre-Emery at PSG, some youth players just ain’t on a normal development curve these days. However, expectations must stay firmly in check.

The traveling squad was also notable or its youth omissions, namely Amario Cozier-Duberry and Lino Sousa. Others have a little better visibility than I, but from what I’ve seen, they both look pretty loan-ready to me.

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5. Are there any signs of a “next stepper” taking a next step?

Reiss Nelson demonstrated a new level last year. With a new contract in hand, it’s now up to him to show that he can consistently stay there (and stay healthy) against top sides.

With that, two others are entering big years:

• Will Jakub Kiwior look like a still-developing ancillary piece, or like a player capable of earning significant minutes?

• Will Fábio Vieira demonstrate more comfort, confidence, and timing in his play? Can he now deadlift a caravan with a family of four inside, as so many Arsenal fans seem to require of him?

No further thoughts. It’ll just be interesting to see.

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OK, there’s a lot more to discuss, believe it or not, but I’ll chill for now.

I’ll be back soon with some transfer rankings if we get clarity around any potential outgoings.

In the meantime, be good.

And happy grilling.

❤️🔥