Announcements big and small

Brief reflections on Rice, Havertz, Timber, inversion, and some (very trivial) news of my own

I’ll be appearing in your inbox shortly with a regularly-scheduled Lavia BBQ, but in the meantime, I thought I’d check in on the big news week — and offer a minor announcement of my own. There’s a buried lede at the bottom.

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On Wednesday, multiple international teams of scientists jointly revealed findings they had reached independently. Telescopes across the world have detected signs of a “gravitational wave background,” rippling the fabric of space and time around us, bobbing the earth like a skiff in a choppy sea. They’d been researching the “low-pitch hum of gravitational waves resounding throughout the universe and washing through our galaxy to warp space-time in a measurable way,” and they found it.

Also on Wednesday: Arsenal agreed on a £100+5m fee to sign Declan Rice.

Two jolts of world-bending news. One day.

On the latter, I have so many thoughts, and few of them are particularly complex. Let’s review.

Back in January, I created a new bullshit stat called "D.U.E.L.S." — which stood for Depth Upgrades for the Elusive Lone Six, because I am a word genius. We used the metric to sift and rank 80 potential defensive midfield targets on dozens of underlying metrics for defending, passing, dueling, versatility, value, creativity, age, fit, league-adjustment, and more.

In a stacked field, Rice didn’t win — he demolished the competition:

From there, we spent a long chunk of time — about 8,000 words, in fact — dissecting Rice’s game in detail in a three-part series, looking at his career trajectory, best qualities, most in-progress characteristics, and ideal utilization.

Many of you were too superstitious to read this at the time, so if you skipped it then, you can catch up on the future Arsenal star now:

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Much has happened since writing that. We’ve gained some more clarity on prospective roles and makeup across the squad, and I think it’s a good time to take a moment to review how some of the puzzle pieces might fit together.

Most notably, Kai Havertz has been signed and announced to the public.

You can read (or re-read) his big profile here:

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While pitching ideal uses for King Kai, we offer a couple options, but leaned towards this:

If I were drawing up the best way to get the most out of Havertz, it would be this: as the point of a 3-diamond-3, with license to roam forward, across, and behind. By inverting Thomas from the right, Rice can step a little forward and do what he does best — and Havertz can be covered behind by both Rice and Gabriel. There are some things to sort out in terms of block shape (does everybody in the backline shift over a spot?). Also, there is thin depth at midfield-inverted RB, where only Partey (and perhaps White) can play at the moment. It would be great to fortify that before the window is closed.

That call was answered with our next reported target: Jurriën Timber. We’ve got an enormous profile on him, too. I bizarrely decided to release it at the height of Rice-to-Man-City mania, so in the event that you were in no mood to read it, here’s that one:

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In our profile of the Ajax man, we concluded that his CB skills were nothing to shake a stick at, despite his height — but that his highest potential may lie elsewhere:

• Timber can provide high-skilled, press-resistant CB depth as needed, though he has a few areas where he needs to increase his defensive consistency, and is likely to have a few mistakes in the EPL.

• I happen to believe that White’s current rendition of full-backing (a back-three CB in build-up, that tucks in a bit in advanced areas, then interplays up top occasionally) is an excellent immediate use of his abilities, because of its similarities to a back-3 job. He’s great through the middle, but this view isn’t fully supported by his full-back tape to date when high and wide, so it requires some vision and/or optimism. The role can be better tailored to his skills, and I did see him turn a MoTM performance in there once.

• Then, we dream. I think he’s got sky-high potential through the middle as a true inverted partner (from CB or, more likely, RB), and think the current roster — particularly with the addition of Havertz — is crying out for the option of a Right Zinchenko as a base. (That was going to be my next article, in fact). He is comfortable and ticks every box, and this is probably where his potential is most exciting. But we must be realistic about what can reasonably be expected of a player who just turned 22 and is making a big leap. He may take off immediately; he may require a bit to ease in; it may never really happen. (I may be more rosy about his immediate potential here than I am letting on; I just think some patience is probably healthy).

We’ve talked a lot about the main quality of the transfer window being “triple modular redundancy,” which is really just a nerdy stand-in term for (a) true quality depth and (b) individual flexibility, allowing things to be supported in triplicate. This brings us to a third, associated objective: the ability to invert from either side.

The primary inversion of last year had several key advantages. For one, Zinchenko is perhaps the most press-resistant player at his position in the world, and his support in build-up had a consequential impact on the team’s fortunes. Secondly, the new shape of the “rest defence” was able to capture and maintain possession more effectively, keeping the ball relentlessly pinned forward.

There were also some drawbacks. First, Zinchenko was injury-prone and had no stylistic backup, which turned him into the much-dreaded “single point of failure.” Secondly, his flank could occasionally be targeted in transition.

In the final two games, Arteta experimented with Partey at RB; the results were mixed, but mostly positive in my eyes: there was clearly potential, but some actions just needed to be a little quicker against Forest.

With the additions of Rice and Havertz, here are four key reasons to make the option of “right inversion” a priority:

• Depth: even if its on the other side, an inverted RB is Zinchenko depth in practice.

• Support for the left: “right inversion” means the natural 6 shifts over to the left, taking Zinchenko’s place in build-up. If a truly attacking midfielder is on that same side, this will increase the defensive support on offer.

• Flexibility for Rice: I’m of the general belief that Rice’s long-term value is more likely to be captured as a “floating 6,” but not strictly in that role; while all signs seem to point to his use in the 6, he has some real, all-actiony Yaya Touré skills that should not be ignored, and he seems keen to use them.

• Rotation on the right: This will increase the right’s ability to rotate players as needed.

A lot of interesting questions to go through. For now, let’s look at how the option to invert from either side can play to Rice’s strengths:

Some notes:

• Rice may be the primary benefactor of this flexibility. When the team inverts from the left (likely via Zinchenko), he can play the role of dominant, expressive holding midfielder — a version of what he does for England, on steroids, and with a closer pivot partner.

• But when the team inverts from the right (likely via Timber), there are going to be four CB’s around the backline, which will allow him to stay in the first phase, but “cover” the left attacking midfielder — potentially Havertz — and bomb forward in certain situations, as Havertz likes doing wide interplay.

• In other cases, I wouldn’t entirely discount his aptitude and desire to pair with a 6 and play in the LCM spot, either, with ample rotations forward and back.

• There are justifiable questions about the block shape with both Havertz and Ødegaard in the lineup. With two up front, I tend to believe Ødegaard could adapt pretty quickly to joining the middle “4” in the 4-4-2, as he and Havertz are similar pressers, but Ødegaard is probably the better anticipator, team communicator, and lane-cutter. From watching tape, Havertz often feels like a pure pressing forward, but he is coachable. I’m honestly not sure yet, but this will be a big thing to watch in the preseason.

• The “Right Zinchenko” role is awfully difficult, and we shouldn’t take Timber’s ability to do this immediately for granted. I’m hopeful — particularly because he is projected to join the team early, and have ample time to prep. But if this is the plan, it may take some time to implement. This is mostly me telling myself to chill.

• Perhaps the trickiest question is what the out-of-possession “back 4” looks like in the event of inversion coming from the right. In an ideal world, you start Gabriel, Saliba, White, Timber — but that effectively shifts three players a spot over, and puts Gabriel at LB. I think Gabriel is a tremendous wide 1v1 defender in transition, as we saw against Salah, but I also think keeping him out of the box in more measured opponent possession feels like sacrilege. Tierney is certainly an option if he stays, as the “Left White” role actually suits him fairly well (1v1 defending and overlaps? Yes, please). Same with Tomiyasu — who I’m optimistic about in this role. If not either, the attention, then, turns to Jakub Kiwior: will he grow enough to play LB in pivotal games, enabling a backline option of Kiwior, Gabriel, Saliba, and Timber? We’ll see.

Finally, some notes on value. My model was generally high on the likes of Mudryk and Havertz, though quite price-sensitive. Mudryk’s eventual, exorbitant fee saw him tumble down the order, and Havertz (at £65m) was tip-toeing his way down too; another £5m or so, and he would have cratered. This is because of the relative depth of their respective positions, if not profiles: once you start going into the £70m range for a Havertz, a lot of others begin to look mighty appealing — whether that be a Xavi Simons, Dominik Szoboszlai, or the hybrid attacker of your choice.

With Rice, it’s different. As you saw in the D.U.E.L.S. model, he had a healthy gap on the field, and showcased some truly rare, unfuckwithable qualities that were hard to replicate elsewhere. Because of that, it was hard to unseat him, no matter what I put into the value column.

Do I think he’s a £100m player? I actually do, but was hopeful that West Ham’s relative lack of leverage — “he only wants Arsenal” — wouldn’t make it so. Alas, Rice’s unwillingness to thumb the scale against the club that raised him, combined with a late-entry by Arsenal’s highly-charged rival (get it?), ultimately resulted in a big fee. Oh no.

Ultimately, the consistent, savvy signings can take you to a certain level — regularly challenging for Champions League spots, and going as deep as you can out-of-league. But to truly face down the likes of Manchester City and Real Madrid, rare profiles are required. Those profiles tend to be pricy. For this signing, for that reason, the Virgil Van Dijk comparisons are apt. And I have a feeling, with the benefit of hindsight, Liverpool would have been happy to pay £100m there.

In truth, though, my reaction to the Rice news was more emotional than analytical. A lot of it was pure gratefulness and excitement.

Two nuggets will stick in my mind from this period.

The first is a quote from Martin Ødegaard in that beautiful piece in The Player’s Tribune:

“I spoke to Mikel Arteta on a Zoom call and he told me all about the project. At the time, Arsenal were not doing well. They were way down like 15th in the table, but that meeting … Honestly, I challenge anyone to come away from a meeting with Arteta and not believe everything he tells you.”

The second is an image. During an earth-bending cataclysm brought by dubious reports of Man City being in “advanced talks to sign Declan Rice,” coupled with worrying reports from more reliable journalists, Arsenal social media turned into a true hellscape. #EduOut was even trending again.

Meanwhile, the Sporting Director was enjoying a pint:

The club’s power apparatus is not beyond reproach, and we shouldn’t blindly trust every move they make. Sometimes sustaining success can be more tricky than creating it, so in these parts, we’ll keep asking questions.

But if one thing is abundantly clear at this point: that pint, like this club, is in good hands.

And that, dear readers, is why it’s called Edu’s BBQ.

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Moving forward with the BBQ

50+ long-reads in, I have thought hard about the best way to move this project forward. There are so many people doing great work on video, podcasts, and more.

And guess what? I’ve decided they are better at all that. I like writing.

Writing is magic. In his wonderful book On Writing, Stephen King did a better job of describing my love affair with the written word better than I ever could. If you’ll indulge me:

“Look — here's a table covered with red cloth. On it is a cage the size of a small fish aquarium. In the cage is a white rabbit with a pink nose and pink-rimmed eyes. [...] On its back, clearly marked in blue ink, is the numeral 8. [...] The most interesting thing here isn't even the carrot-munching rabbit in the cage, but the number on its back. Not a six, not a four, not nineteen-point-five. It's an eight.

This is what we're looking at, and we all see it. I didn't tell you. You didn't ask me. I never opened my mouth and you never opened yours. We're not even in the same year together, let alone the same room... except we are together. We are close. We're having a meeting of the minds. [...] We've engaged in an act of telepathy. No mythy-mountain shit; real telepathy.”

We are together. We are close. We’re having a meeting of the minds.

Maybe I’ll branch out one day, but for now I’m just gonna write the best stuff I can, and see where that takes me. I hope that’s OK by you.

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Turning on paid subscriptions

Everything here has always been free and public, and that’s basically the plan moving forward. Somewhere along the way, several dozen of you generous people have pledged paid subscriptions to this thing, or signed up for a benefit-free Patreon. (You’re all the best.)

Thanks to Substack’s incessant prompting, I’ve decided to turn on my ability to accept payments.

If you’d like to join the ranks of those paid subscribers, you can do that here:

What do you get for this? I don’t want to overpromise. There will be occasionally be a subscriber-only post, but my plan is just to keep this free for all to read. Really, your subscription is a much-appreciated pledge to help keep this thing going. If you’d like to do a lower amount, Patreon is still on, as well (Substack only lets you go so low). If it’s no longer of value to you, by all means, cancel.

If you choose to remain a free subscriber, nothing should really change, and you have my unending gratitude as well.

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TL;DR

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Regardless, all I ever really ask is for you to enjoy the pieces, and help to pass them along. I fucking hate Twitter — self-promotion, doubly so. Save me.

From the bottom of my heart, I thank everyone who has kept this thing going. It’s really been something.

Lavia piece incoming. Thank you.