Which defender should Arsenal sign?
Introducing LEFTY, a bullshit new stat to rank dozens of potential left-sided defender signings for Arsenal. A big long-read with heaps of analytics, player profiles, and more
Some positions in the Arsenal eleven seem remarkably settled. Names like Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, William Saliba, and Declan Rice appear in permanent marker. The next group was once considered for possible rotation — Benjamin White, Kai Havertz, Gabriel, David Raya — but managed to embed themselves as well. Gabriel Martinelli will look to regain his place as a shoo-in.
One objective of the summer will be to increase the amount of uncertainty we feel come lineup time — more pencil, less pen — and bring in exciting additions to the squad who can raise the level and genuinely challenge their steady reigns. While it’s exceedingly unlikely that some of these players will lose their places, more rotation would be welcome.
You’ll notice two positions were conspicuously absent from that list: one offset player for Havertz and Rice (likely a midfielder), and one left-back.
Which brings us to today.
Who is gonna start at left-back next year?
🗂 A situation report
The search for a new defender isn’t straightforward.
In 22/23, Arsenal’s season stalled when William Saliba got hurt. The team struggled to replace him and the Arsenal of the buzzing first half never really returned. Seeing as how his role of “CCB” (central-centre-back) hasn’t really been fortified since, it’s understandable that some fans and analysts may put that role at the top of the list for a defender signing.
There are a few other things worth considering as context.
It wasn’t just Saliba who was out then. Tomiyasu was hurt in the same game, which had cascading effects. Not only could Tomiyasu not fill in for Saliba, White couldn’t, either — as there was no other RB on the squad who could fill in. Even Cedric was on Fulham.
Jakub Kiwior had only been signed in January and has gained experience since.
Jurriën Timber joined the following summer.
But there’s a final, perhaps most important consideration there: the evolution of the relationship of Saliba and Gabriel.
We’ve written about this a bit, but here’s the TL;DR.
Whereas this used to be more of a default…
…we’ve been seeing this some more — with Gabriel as CCB and Saliba pushing up, dribbling, carrying, and unsettling:
These are a few of the more extreme examples, but this action map will show you where Saliba is popping up more.
If you noticed a few extra swashbuckling dribbles by Saliba in the second half of the year, this was by design.
In a screenshot, you’re more likely to see this kind of look.
What is the result? From a previous post:
This is not to say that Saliba does an entirely new thing now. But it does mean more options are at the team’s disposal. This has manifested in some interesting ways, statistically.
Last year, Saliba had 5+ touches in the attacking third on two occasions. Both times, it was when Arsenal were chasing games late. He has now done that fourteen times this season across comps.
Since Dubai, his touches have been more evenly split with Gabriel, and he has been a little more free to move forward. Of note:
Pre-Dubai: Saliba had 86 touches per 90, Gabriel had 71
Post-Dubai: Saliba has 75 touches per 90, Gabriel has 73
Gabriel’s lower-third touches have raised a bit while Saliba’s have gone down; despite 11 fewer touches per 90 overall, Saliba’s advanced input is a bit higher
Saliba has doubled his attempted direct take-ons after the break, though we’re talking about low numbers (0.25 per 90 to 0.53 per 90)
The result is a pairing that is a little more balanced. As Gabriel splits some responsibilities, and the midfield is more likely to contain a double-pivot of confident passers, Saliba has been a little bit more low-touch. Gabriel has shown increased solidity at CCB, but if you’ve seen a couple more mistakes in the second half of the season (compared to his imperious, “I have no notes” first half), it’s probably not unrelated to the fact that his responsibilities have risen. So too has Saliba’s forward threat.
Thanks to Saliba’s aggression and Gabriel’s development as a steadier hand in back, the “CCB” role has evolved into one that better suits the likes of Tomiyasu, White, Kiwior, and Timber — not to mention Gabriel.
This increases the value of the players already on the squad in that position, and also decreases the marginal value of a new signing.
Could more of a specialist be signed? Sure. I’d honestly love one in a vacuum. But suppose you’re looking for one better than Tomiyasu, White, Kiwior, or Timber. In that case, they are fairly unlikely to be perfect options at other spots of need (like LB), unlikely to see much playing time behind Saliba, and they will be very expensive. That is a difficult needle to thread.
Now, if you look at a simple two-deep chart like this, the case for a left-sided (and left-footed) defender feels easier to make, even if players like Timber (especially Timber), Tomiyasu, and Kiwior can swing over there:
LB: Zinchenko, [x]
LCB: Gabriel, Kiwior
RCB: Saliba, Tomiyasu
RB: White, Timber
In any case, we should be moving past our relationship with the squad being a “Set XI” where everybody plays fixed positions. We should still look more at player profiles, interlocking dynamics, and how the team can set up in different situations — let alone form and fitness.
But looking at those bullets, we can ignore all that for a moment and also say this: there is one remaining backline position for a player to come in and make their own. It may be solved internally or externally; a signing may never actually come.
But it is on the side of the pitch that struggled in 23/24. Coincidences…
🎯 The profile to target
The market is changing, and no plan can be fixed. There’s a non-zero chance that the backline rolls as-is, with the likes of Timber, Zinchenko, Tomiyasu, and Kiwior battling it out on the left. But there’s also the chance of renewal. In any case: where is the fun in debating the status quo? Let’s roll.
When starting a search, the first step is to decide the parameters. As much as we’d like to say “find the best player available” — and there is a lot of value in that — you have to make a lot of affordances for the philosophy, system, and long-term view of the footballing project.
I think the example of Antoine Griezmann is helpful here. On one hand, he seems like one of the more system-proof players in world football. On the other, we remember his time in Barcelona. Was he still productive? Sure. Was he at his best? No. If he’s dependent on environmental factors, everyone is.
You want to target a player for the immediate opportunity — but not just the immediate opportunity. The player should align with a stable overarching footballing vision, and, like visions of sugarplums, there should be multiple deployments of the player bouncing around in our heads. This isn’t just how you succeed. This is how you risk-proof your investments.
This was laid out well in a typically-brilliant piece about Kai Havertz by Amy Lawrence in The Athletic. The examples are everywhere.
Ben White was ostensibly a centre-half but has been remoulded into a marauding right-back. Takehiro Tomiyasu plays anywhere across the defensive line. Jurrien Timber can do that, too. Oleksandr Zinchenko is the signature hybrid. Bukayo Saka used to play anywhere on the left flank and now is established as a right-winger. Declan Rice has the fanbase continually debating whether he should be more of a No 6 or a No 8, when they are not thanking their lucky stars they have him in their No 41 shirt. Gabriel Jesus can usually be found scurrying around far deeper or wider than a traditional striker.
Just this week, Rice said this:
“My first discussions with [Mikel Arteta] was to go to Arsenal and play as a six. But, as we started to play more Arteta liked me in the eight role and it gave us more balance - I can play both and I am happy to play eight or six.”
Paul McGuinness, meanwhile, recalls a philosophy passed to him from Warwick Rimmer:
"I always try to recruit my left-back first. It's eaiser to get players to fill-in at right-back."
I’m not too simplistic on this. It is my view that “traditional” LBs should be considered if they have extraordinary base characteristics. But CBs and midfielders are just so talented and versatile these days, and a more typical LB can have trouble finding other uses, so you’d really like to be sure. You’d really just want somebody to be comfortable in 2-3 spots here.
So, with that, we’ll keep an immediate opportunity (left-back) in mind. But more widely, let’s find a great, dynamic, left-sided defender who suits the long-term vision of the club and could slot in different ways.
Here are the parameters I’ve laid out. A job description of sorts.
Required
At least one standout/additive physical/dynamic quality
Active and engaged in the duel
High-level press resistor and progressor (either great at deep passing, forward dribbling, or both)
Can underlap or hold width on left
Tenacious but controlled, particularly when making decisions in counter-press
Not heavily foot-dominant
Either a full two-way player or overpowered enough in attack to be winger depth
Foundation of being a top-10 defender in the world, even if uncertain
Strongly preferred
Left-footed
Can start at left-back against any height of block
Positive on set plays
Ready to make an immediate impact
Excellent ball-striking
Tidy interplay with LW
Lightly preferred
Can start at 2+ other positions
Tall and set play dominant
When in doubt
Target the most impressive base profile
From there, here’s how that turned into a ranking:
✅ Run a wide search: I pulled a list of 200 defenders worldwide between the ages of 18-30 and worth more than €5m on Transfermarkt (though I manually added a few). I removed players for a few different (probably subjective) reasons. It’s hard to define it into a parameter, but I don’t think we’re going to get Aké or Gvardiol, folks. I also removed some players that I just feel like aren’t additive enough to the profiles we have (for instance: Inácio with Gabriel, and Colwill with Kiwior). Again, that’s a little subjective and messy, but we have to narrow things down somehow.
✅ Pull attributes: I grabbed 20+ different relevant attributes for this list of players, mostly from Wyscout. Statistical rankings of full-backs is a bit of a crapshoot, as they play so differently, but it’s a good start.
✅ Group quantitative measures (60%): Defensive duels won %, aerial duels won %, attacking actions, dribbles, passes per 90, accurate passes, progressive passes, short/medium passes, age, minutes played, as well as some aggregate underlying statistics from other providers (like FotMob) to give a base.
✅ Add my bullshit (40%): I have personal, subjective rankings based on viewing them all to varying degrees (some very much, some little). This includes: potential, foot dominance, flexibility, “tenacious but controlled,” and dynamism. There’s probably a lot of noise here because I’m not able to watch every player the same amount.
✅ Adjustments: There are modifiers for age, league adjustment, position, play style, footedness. I added a strong weight for left-footedness here.
Other notes:
This is just a left-sider list. They are mostly left-footers, and some righties who are either truly ambipedal or can make do. At the end, we’ll have a short list of more right-leaning options. I also don’t consider this a narrow profile (overlapper, underlapper, etc), as I see the Arsenal attack as a flexible web of options.
There is no value adjustment. The budget seems very fungible. There are arguments for adding a midfielder who is 25m and/or 90m; as such, this budget should be flexible, as well. Let’s hunt for difference-makers at every value, starting with the big ogs.
I’m sure I forgot or undervalued people. I can’t watch everyone. Remember, you decided to read this, not me.
Summary: we are looking for the most dynamic, physical defender we can find to improve the left side. This includes some personal bullshit and subjectivity, and is not science. It also includes some big-braining on profile.
Onto the ranks.
The Rankings
With that, I present you L.E.F.T.Y. ⤵️
Why don’t we start by dreaming big?
🔦 Player spotlight: Theo Hernández
I didn’t know exactly how this would turn out before I did it. The more I dug in, the more roads led to Theo Hernández. He is probably the best LB in the world — Gvardiol has perhaps overtaken him, and others like Grimaldo probably had better years in isolation, but aren’t as good — and is proof-positive that attacking dynamism doesn’t have to come from the forward line. I kept watching full-90s and finding more to covet.
He adds so much spice to the Milan attack through progressive carries, 1-2s, interesting movements (often underlaps), simple blow-bys (big touch and brrrr), and little dribbles. His ball-striking is great, and he is incredibly fast — as well as strong, tall enough (6-0), and good in the air (specifically in muscling for open play balls).
Unlike truer wing-back types, he’s not a defensive liability, and can be a big plus, offering much for Arteta to work with: he’s fighty and committed, and can even offer shifts at LCB in a pinch (I watched one against Newcastle in the Champions League). He can be a matchup-proof starter.
Throughout the course of the year, we continued to see our left-backs moving like this.
Often, when Arsenal lined up in a double-pivot, the full-back would float all the way up to the left half-space to occupy that zone.
Now, imagine this player working in those areas.
He could also do this after a (familiar) overload on the other side. The opponent should immediately become a lot more hesitant to send help that way.
In sum, you can see how his in-league statistical footprint fared here.
What’s the catch? There isn’t much … other than the pricetag.
He can be a little floaty and overambitious in certain defensive situations, and he’s also not a true wide FB with crosses. His style is more to beat his man on the inside.
He can also go outside and sprint to the endline for a cutback, rather than act as a standard crosser, so if your objective is just to pinch Martinelli in as default (mine isn’t, I just think that should be improved as an option), he may not be your choice; we have seen the slick associations with Mbappé, so I don’t envision him “blocking” access to the middle. He’s not necessarily a back-to-goal deep inverter either. With any pacey players, there may also be concern with his adjustment if/when he loses a step, and he’s not the most flexible of players: he’s mostly a LB.
But all that pales when compared to his strengths, which I feel would be properly unleashed in this system. If the midfielder signing is more thrifty than it could be — say, 40m or so — it sure feels like the budget would be available for something like this. One can dream…
🔦 Player spotlight: Alessandro Bastoni
This is admittedly swinging big (literally). And it’s based on a big hunch.
After all, Bastoni was just named the best Serie A defender of the 2023/24 season as a CB. In this campaign, he played an untethered back-three role that showcased much of his prowess and ability in all phases. It’s easy to argue that a manager as smart as Inzaghi is using him correctly.
You can see how he’s fared this year when compared to other Serie A centre-backs.
So what’s the hunch?
I’ve had it for a while now. If platformed appropriately, I think Bastoni could bring a unique wrath upon opponents as a unicorn, one-of-a-kind back-four LB.
(Perhaps two-of-a-kind, because he’s a bit like Gvardiol.)
The idea is to showcase all his glittering strengths and isolate some of his few weaknesses. In the box, he’s not necessarily a last-man dominator type (he can look a little imprecise and rushed with positioning as the last man). He is still figuring out how to unleash his height as an aerial bully, and isn’t perfect in every deep defending situation, though he’s improved and is no liability.
But as a passer, progressor, carrier, crosser, underlapper, overlapper, and everything you want moving forward — he comes alive and looks superlative. His crosses and little touches are the stuff of a true attacking player, and he can really gallop.
This is when you see him, and he seems to communicate through his play: “yes, this is what I want to do.” Everything is so fluent and free.
It feels like his body just wants to move aggressively and forward.
The wide cross stuff is probably where he’s best.
He’s also fully capable of being high-touch, hanging back in a back-three, and pinging it around. He possesses big range and has plenty of 80+ pass games throughout his career. He’s playing CCB in the Euros, and can be a capable deputy there, though that’s not my preferred use of him.
What’s the counterargument?
Again, it’s mostly just price and availability. While so many clubs would be in line for his services, it can be hard to justify such an outlay for a “CB” when Arsenal already have the best pairing in the league and other areas of need. My thought here may be an Arteta-pilled “big-back-four” gamble to make, and would feasibly put Kiwior on the way out.
But I laid out my philosophy at some point.
I don't know much, but at the highest of high levels, it becomes a little bit less about managerial tinkering, and more about stacking unicorns. And Declan Rice is the only Declan Rice in the world, which is nice.
Bastoni is undoubtedly another.
🔦 Player spotlight: Alphonso Davies
We said we’d like to target “the most impressive base profile.” It’s hard to imagine one more impressive than Alphonso Davies.
Davies finds himself in limbo. His contract expires next year; his own season was up-and-down (perhaps mostly down, if Bayern fans are to be believed); Real Madrid always seem to be lurking.
Here’s how it worked out when compared to the league.
As far as being able to change a game on his own, he’s the peak of the entire list. We saw that when he subbed on at left-wing against Real Madrid and scored.
This was him playing “out of position,” in the Champions League semi-final, against a top-3 world CB, on his off-foot:
He can spring down the line, but is probably underrated as a deeper and midfield presence — he can create from there, too.
When you look at one of the (momentary) formations like the below, there is no full-back in the world you’d want holding width on the LW more than Davies. As an opponent, how comfortable would you be shifting your block aggressively to the Arsenal right?
I’ve also been experimenting with a “portability score,” where we can rank the transferring clubs who would have the easiest time adjusting to Arsenal’s style of play (based on pass tempo, PPDA, possession, defensive actions, etc). Bayern rank extremely high.
It can feel hard to justify a massive outlay for a player who could struggle defensively in the Bundesliga. I consider his defensive outlook more “confusing” than purely “negative;” in fact, there was a period last year when I thought he had successfully turned himself into a true stopper, in addition to all his explosive qualities forward, only to backslide a bit now.
The Premier League is likely to offer a stiffer test, and I can sometimes have trouble envisioning Arteta starting a truer wing-back like this during the business end of the Champions League. If a bespoke role could be formed — high-wing-back against mid-to-low blocks, and actual speed-winger against the better teams, perhaps things can get interesting.
He is a real difference-maker.
🔦 Player spotlight: Nico Schlotterbeck
Schlotterbeck is a former Arsenal target who just helped his team advance to the Champions League final.
Here’s how he looked compared to his league rivals. (Just to restate: please remember that all of this is an in-league comparison against their most-used position.)
Like Bastoni, he does so as a CB, though Schlotterbeck is an LCB in a back-four setup. He combines some of the best qualities of two existing Arsenal players: the strength and savvy of White, and the raw athleticism of Jakub Kiwior.
(Important note: it could be said that a Schlotterbeck addition could raise questions of Kiwior’s future, and I’d understand that, and would probably only go for this move if there were others on the horizon for Arsenal’s left side.)
That said, I’m including Schlotterbeck so high (and not players like Colwill or Laporte, who I think are too similar to Kiwior) because I think his aggressive, duelly style of defending on the left can turn him into a true dawg out wide — while adding a lot of stable, thoughtful, skilled, forward-thinking, progressive “Left White” characteristics to a side in need of some help. If you play with a double-pivot, then both sides of the formation can neatly alternate.
He’s tall, strong-ish, aggressive, developed, great on aerials, mature, and is a really controlled (and interesting) carrier of the ball who is comfortable in traffic. His experience as a wide-three CB and a LB (as recently as a January friendly) would ease the transition, and he has a good burst of pace for defending wingers. His one remaining bugaboo (the odd defensive mistake) will get masked in front of Saliba and Gabriel.
If it doesn’t work out? There are certainly other uses of him, and he’d retain value.
Mostly, this would be a question about squad-building.
🔦 Player spotlight: Nuno Mendes
Nuno Mendes is like his compatriot Pedro Neto: he is the perfect profile to sign, but is almost purely an injury inquisition. As such, take this ranking with a grain of salt. You and I can simply wave a white flag to the Information Asymmetry Gods and admit that the clubs have more to work with than us.
Mendes, still 22, was rushed back a couple of times before finally getting surgery on his hamstring. If he gets the green-light from Arsenal docs — last I checked, he was the fastest player in the Champions League after returning, and it may actually be something that is behind him now that it’s properly dealt with — he is not a good target, he is a near-perfect one.
I’ll put it more stark: a fully-healthy Mendes is probably #1 on this list. He is fast, strong, aggressive, committed, and projects to be plus-defender and a plus-attacker, capable of winding in and out and making things happen. His defensive duel success was among the highest in the sample, and we know that’s something that the club prizes.
He’s a little imperfect in some places at this stage, but whatever. I doubt PSG would let him go at this point but, hey, let’s leave no stone left unturned.
🔦 Player spotlight: Alejandro Baldé
Alejandro Baldé’s profile may get flattened as pure overlapper but I tend to think he’s a lot more interesting than that.
He’s fast as all hell, but he’s a wing-threat from deep, and can get himself into all kinds of interesting situations — primarily from the carry, but also with some close control, build-up moves, and big passes.
He feels a little setup-dependent right now, and can have “young” games, and I get the feeling he could get even more joy with endline sprints (and cutbacks) than he does — in general, his final balls could have more intention.
That’s all expected as a 19-year-old, and he’s also refined in a lot of ways: he projects as a great defender, locked-in and attentive to details, so there’s not a lot of trade-off here at all.
He’s an elite talent who could play right away — and offers attacking depth, as well.
🔦 Player spotlight: Jorrel Hato
At one point, I was working on a big long-read about Jorrel Hato, watching and compiling notes. That went up in flames with one recent interview, when he said:
“I’ll just play for Ajax next season. I haven’t finished learning here yet. And I want to win prizes with Ajax. That was my dream when I came here.”
Serves me right.
Hato is a lock-fit LB/LCB profile for Arsenal, though a young one. I think he made the right decision for his career to be greedy for minutes and development at Ajax. If there were was a value component to this calculation — Hato may be €30m, Mendes may be €60m+ — I imagine Hato would climb.
He fits firmly into the “old head, young legs” archetype of the day. He is almost astonishingly self-assured and crisp with his actions. While some smart players are content to show it in their play, I pick up the “forever communicative, yet perpetually dissatisfied with what he sees” vibe of a future captain and manager here. In fact, he’s a captain already.
The confidence on the ball is similar to viewers of Timber, but it’s a slightly less audacious, swaggy version. The ball sticks to his feet and does whatever he wants it to, and he distributes it in the correct ways.
He is a really ferocious, committed dueller. Defending the wing is a tough business and he’s been beaten before, but has the tools to succeed.
In back, I saw a few too many low losses at this stage — times when his patience and confidence got the best of him. He would be “play” but not “plug and play every week.”
Up top, he would project as pure competence, but not necessarily as peak dynamism, crossing, or intrigue. He feels like more of a distributor than a creator to me.
More than anything, he just needs a little time.
🔦 Player spotlight: Riccardo Calafiori
When I wrote a piece in March of last year, Riccardo Calafiori was in Switzerland at Basel, and he was the top player flagged by my model who I hadn’t watched yet. His subsequent breakout has made me feel good.
But it also shows the value of a stat-based search: it is not likely to offer a complete picture, but it can really help inform your “watchlist,” identifying players you haven’t seen who deserve your attention. One hand washes the other.
After digging into Calafiori in the fall and winter, I got the heart-eyes. Thiago Motta saw him so clearly, giving him license to roam and attack and dribble and create; he has a controlled urgency to him that propels things naturally forward.
In “Five Ways to Improve Arsenal,” we identified “increase risk tolerance in the middle” as one of the key areas of improvement, and he is quite thoughtful and successful when he decides to go for it. We also said this:
In all, I think a focus of the transfer window has to be fewer trade-offs. Ultimately, at this level, you don’t want to choose between your progressive left-back or your defensive left-back. You’d like to start a progressive, defensive left-back.
On top of all he offers moving forward, he’s an animal on duels and recoveries.
He can be a little imperfect when judging space behind, and there are probably slightly better high-and-wide threats on the left, but I’d be so happy to plug him at LB (while rotating him elsewhere as needed) without looking back.
Other possibilities
OK, let’s get into quicker profiles. As I’ve said, some of these are well-educated opinions (5-15 games watched), some are more cursory. Proceed as such.
I’ve covered Ferdi Kadıoğlu for a long time, so long-time readers will know that he’s one of the players I simply like most. Here’s what I wrote in that same piece from last March, which was not long after he’d caught my eye, and before there were any Arsenal links:
Unquestionably the most fun player to research here, as you may have seen in the Europa. A converted attacking midfielder and winger, Kadioglu is an energetic madman in the Süper Lig, flashing genuinely special dribbling ability, positional fluidity, and work-rate. He winds inside and creates opportunities at will. Those aren’t his only tricks, as he’s also been a secure and dynamic passer, and can play both right-back and left-back with pretty much equal skill (he’s made the same amount of appearances at each this year), and covers other spots for Turkey as well — in terms of raw, non-league-adjusted attacking stats, he and Grimaldo are a cut above the rest.
Since watching him some more, I feel better about his ambipedalness (he’s played more on the left side, and the intricacies of his control/prep touches show somebody, like Gvardiol or Guéhi, who is genuinely getting the advantages of both feet, not just passing with them). I also feel better about his defensive edge: he’s been throwing his weight around, and his duelling feels consistent. If he wasn’t a potential fifth right-footed defender, I’d probably say “just sign him.” His little carries and ideas would be a boon.
Lisandro Martínez would have been a pretty nasty signing two years ago, assuming he stayed healthy. He remains one of the better deep line-breaking passers anywhere in the game, a welcome attribute, and is really comfortable under pressure. The problem is health, age (26 now, which means a contract would take him until he’s 30 or so), and that your biggest question-mark about him as left-back (running in big spaces) can compound issue #1 at the moment (health). Sure, I’d like him, but I don’t see it happening.
You can plug in Noussair Mazraoui at either full-back spot and be virtually assured he would put in a good performance, at any level, against any opponent. The end.
Eintracht Frankfurt have become something of a secondary rooting interest for me, and Willian Pacho caught my eye from week one. I’ve since gone back to his Antwerp days a bit (checking out more Vermeeren and Mandela Keita) and I like everything I see. As a defender, he can remind me of a left-sided Ibrahima Konaté in his eagerness to duel. Moving forward, his skillset strikes me as unfinished but incredibly pliable: he has elite tools (control, speed, progression) but they can be pointed in any number of ways. The most likely way is as the “aggro” CB in a back-two. But I think there’s something there in a defensive, roaming, wide role. And hey, it’s my list.
Castello Lukeba is a brilliant player already. He would fully complete a conclusively mean-spirited “Thou Shalt Not Pass” backline. A unit consisting of [White/Timber] + Saliba + Gabriel + Lukeba would be the strongest defensive look in the world.
If I may add a quick lol:
He lost 0.08 challenges per 90. Haha.
He would also be a steady, progressive force in the first two phases — finding progressive partners and delivering assured, weighted balls everywhere. I have open questions about how much sticking him at LB would feel like a real shoe-horning, instead of a slight one; can he cross like Bastoni, or carry like Calafiori? I’m not so sure, and we’d like to offer some more help to Martinelli and the like.Jarrad Branthwaite is a great talent. His aggressive duelling, athleticism, flexibility, and ambipedalness make him a higher-ceiling version of Tomiyasu, and I think he’s been on an ideal development trajectory, but should probably settle in as a simple CB, despite his pace. Ultimately I have trouble seeing Arsenal spending the most on him; the fit is fine but not totally perfect.
Marc Guéhi, though right-footed, is just a player you want on your football club. He will figure out a way to start most games, is steady and assured, and radiates leadership and captain energy. I think he could be our Akanji: utterly capable in every single role, even if inverting (and even in midfield, where I recently caught a performance of his). I also think he’d be a better LB than Akanji, as his impressive left-foot (and speed) is capable of delivering overlaps and wide crosses. His ground duelling is also incredible. In short, he’s a manager’s dream. I have minor nits: he’s not a sound aerial battler, and is not the most ambitious of line-splitters (which is an area of need); when he hesitates on a grounded progressive pass, he can try to carry his way out of it — and I’ve seen a few deep losses this way. Anyway, nothing big, just things to consider when weighing against the (justifiably) considerable price tag.
I’m still making up my mind on Murillo. The statistical footprint wasn’t entirely kind, but team factors must be taken into account, and it’s hard not to love him when you watch him. He is all-in. I’ve seen him thunder in (almost) goals from his own side; I’ve heard a THWACK of a screamer hitting his head as he threw himself in front of it on the last line; I’ve seen all kinds of interesting dribbles and carries. I fully would see the vision, but his short track record and some statistical oddities add a little uncertainty to my assessment.
While I have you, here is his shot chart from WyScout. I’ve circled two shots literally fell off the map.
In August, I popped up the first Lazio game of the season. I was intrigued to watch Gustav Isaksen, a winger from the Superligaen, make his debut in Serie A (he struck me as a player who would either pop immediately or struggle mightily … It was the latter). Instead, I tweeted: “I tuned in for Isaksen but this 18-year-old Patrick Dorgu guy on Lecce is just popping off the screen. Wow.” I had never heard of him. After digging more, I confirmed that yes, he was impressive, and he’s gained some buzz since. He’s the type of talent who is easy to spot: he’s a little too controlled, a little too fluid, a little too fast, a little too smart, a little too big. The issue is just that he’s 19 and needs minutes and time to develop, and it’s probably a touch too early for the Big Move.
I like Rayan Aït-Nouri. While he is electric and interesting, he is not necessarily a profile I covet these days as a final-piece-type. Give me a top dueller, a top creator, or both. These more expected full-back profiles, while great and impressive in isolation, can fall in-between for me. His speed and forward power does add a tangible advantage.
Miguel Gutiérrez largely falls into the same boat. I’m looking for standout attributes and he’s a nice passer and mover, especially in LaLiga, and that could feasibly help Martinelli out. Other than that, I don’t see him being sturdy enough in the wide duel to be able to show strength in a wide, 4-back position — and he doesn’t have another offering (pure speed, truly killer ball delivery) that can offset it. He would still helpful.
I normally wouldn’t imagine Andrea Cambiaso leaving, but Juventus is a strange and ultimately unknowable operation. You’ll read a lot about “angle bias” in tactical articles — and I’m not sure it’s always used thoughtfully or correctly — but Cambiaso is whatever the opposite of “angle bias” is. He’s a lefty who’s played mostly on the right this year and has all kinds of little moves, dekes, and crosses. He has a midfielder’s brain, and got the Motta treatment last year, which seemed to have worked — I think he can play every type of full-back now. I have some questions as to whether he peaks as a 8/10 or 10/10 player.
Maximilian Mittelstädt isn’t a Euros creation, and doesn’t look like a flash-in-pan to me. He’s tremendously competent, plays big, is a great tackler, and is excellent at both pinching in (to a 2-3 rest defending shape) and holding width and nailing crosses. I couldn’t believe how active he was out-of-possession, sometimes probably overdoing it: he’s the league leader in tackles, attempts, and is up there on interceptions (and lost challenges, which is more a product of his activity — he’s still pretty high-percentage). He’s above-average at almost everything. Wanna see?
Mikayil Faye strikes me as an ideal blend of Murillo and Hato. With continued drilling (Barcelona doesn’t hurt here), he could turn himself the prototypical modern hybrid defender. Watch this. The only issue is that you’re probably buying a year or two early, and the immediate impact may be light. He needs minutes.
I haven’t studied Bradley Locko much. From what I’ve seen, I like. He has the ability to be comfortable in every place on a pitch: interior, inverted, out wide, overlapping. He also has some nice close control to match.
Jhon Lucumí is enigmatic. He’s a bit of a CCB and a bit of tight-space midfielder all in one; if you peel back the layers on William Saliba, you’ll see the same. I’d like him for some other openings — I kept turning on Bologna for saucier players like Zirkzee and Calafiori, but he kept catching my eye — but ultimately wouldn’t see the same kind of potential as a high-and-wide full-back here. A team would be smart to scoop him up, though. Why? Mainly because he is smart.
I’m not sure Josip Stanišić is a true ambipedal but he’s damn close — he looks good at left-back. If I turned down the dials for footedness and position, he’d be near the top of the list. His underlying numbers were explosively good during his loan year at Leverkusen. Whereas some players are flexible in a more utilitarian way, he is genuinely comfortable in multiple spots.
Fabiano Parisi is a top talent with the ball. One look at his frame will give you a concern about how he’d hold up physically; in practice, I think he looks pretty feisty 1v1. But alas.
Milos Kerkez has a huge range of outcomes. There is a lot to work with there, but a lot of uncertainty at this stage. (He was another player flagged by a version of this model last year when he was at AZ).
I have watched a lot of Piero Hincapié. His numbers pop, and I’ve seen him be aggressive to the point of detriment. In reality, he is a really appealing player, but I’ve just seen some extremes in his performance levels. Undecided.
If I had to consider one played for a Calafiori-style breakout season next year, it’d be Maxim De Cuyper. He’s really long, flexible, active, and alive as a player — and whereas Calafiori does more on the carry, De Cuyper does his damage on the pass. I speed-ran some 90s of him and I thought he passed the test of “is he athletic enough for the next league up,” and Belgium always has a lot of great attackers to face down. He can be a little clumsy when defending but the killer balls and work rate are there; his progressive numbers are nice and he bangs in a lot of crosses and inswingers from the corner flag. It can be argued that he’s a little behind the typical trajectory of a future star (he’s 23-and-a-half), but careers unfold in myriad ways.
Quilindschy Hartman should be higher than this on merit. I lowered him because of injury realities. He is part of the Feyenoord machine that tops many analytics spreadsheets. He is big, fast, good aerially, and comfortable with a lot of the ball. He can pinch in or go wide and nail a cross, and his bursty dribbles are impressive. There are two questions: 1) whether he has the final bit of sauce to make him a 10/10 potential player; and 2) he, uh, tore his ACL and is out until December. I saved the kicker for last.
Jayden Oosterwolde screams “2024.” Great with the ball, well-drilled, big, dynamic. He’s a CB and a bit of a late bloomer (he’s had an odd career, from Eredivisie starter at age 19 to Serie B and Turkey at ages 21-23), but there’s a lot of promise in his overarching characteristics as a hybrid.
Maybe I steer away from more traditional LB profiles, but Pervis Estupiñán is just a good football player, and you would be confident about his adjustment period (or lackthereof). Here, I’ll prove it.
Same with Kyle Walker-Peters. Flexible on both sides, and last seen overmatching the Championship, you will never feel exposed if he’s in the lineup on either side.
Mika Mármol is an interesting one. There might be something really special of a line-breaker here; his manipulation of blocks reminds me of Lisandro Martinez. Here’s a jaw-dropping stat from a recent Athletic piece: “Last season, playing for FC Andorra in the Spanish Segunda, he completed 3,105 passes — an unthinkable 42 per cent more than any other player in the league in at least five seasons.” I’d have to watch more to understand his potential as a possible full-back.
I really like Bjorn Meijer’s toolbox. He’s big, athletic, and has a mean whip on his crosses and corners. I worry about his numbers in quick, tight build-up.
Tyrick Mitchell was one of the many Palace players who went on a blinder down the stretch under Glasner. Mitchell works really hard, is very fast, and is a great defender. In the closing weeks, he was placing his passes better than he ever has. The arrow looks up, and I could easily argue that he should be higher.
Ayrton Lucas feels overdue for a move to a Top-7 league in Europe (if he’d take one). He’s good at pretty much everything.
Antonee Robinson may be stubbornly forcing me to join his cause. He’s been on a steady train of improvement, and I used to have more concerns about his looseness in possession (which is probably still a thing, but offset more elsewhere). Still, I can’t imagine actually making the move.
Alfie Doughty. You get a cross, and you get a cross, and you get a cross. Doughty is a nice athlete and a dangerous passer, but I’m not sure I’d want him defending out wide for the Arsenal.
I always keep an eye on Tom Rothe as a unicorn type. He had 12 G+A in the 2.Bundesliga as a giant LWB, and he’s got a unique blend of physical traits and technical ability. He’s getting awfully close to first-team-ready.
💡Others
👉 Omissions
I pulled players out for a few reasons.
Unlikelihood: Some were omitted because I just don’t see them leaving (Raphaël Guerreiro, Luke Shaw, Grimaldo, Federico Dimarco, Lewis Hall, Tino Livramento, etc). You can argue that I included some who probably aren’t leaving either, but hey, allow a man to dream.
Not additive: Some were committed because the overlap to existing squad qualities was too high to justify a big outlay (Beraldo, Alessandro Buongiorno, Levi Colwill, Gonçalo Inácio, Aymeric Laporte, Valentín Barco).
Already moving: Some because they’re already on the move. Ladislav Krejčí, in particular, showed up really well in both the numbers and my eye test. He’s a big, skilled LCB who is comfortable in midfield and has dropped 32 (!!!!) G+A since last year as the captain of Sparta Prague. He’s off to Girona. Also omitted was David Hancko (who really pops in these numbers, and his deal may be less wrapped up than I thought), Lilian Brassier (who is joining De Zerbi at OM), and Jeanuël Belocian (Leverkusen).
I removed Robert Renan because I’m not sure a deal with Zenit Saint Petersburg can be completed. If I’m wrong, I’ll re-evaluate.
👉 Younger Players / Prospects
There’s a long list of young players who have my eye but I haven’t necessarily studied, and/or I don’t have the numbers to back up. Among them: Mauro Perković (Dinamo Zagreb), Callum Doyle (Manchester City), Max Finkgräfe (Köln), Morato (Benfica), Adam Aznou (Bayern), Álex Valle (Barcelona), David Møller Wolfe (AZ), Kassoum Ouattara (Monaco), Owen Beck (Liverpool), Melvin Bard (Nice), Abner (Real Betis), Juan Larios (Southampton), Bastien Meupiyou (Nantes)
👉 Missed the Cut
Some assorted notes on those who narrowly missed out:
Leif Davis (Ipswitch) was on a mission all year, and was close to the top-40. He has (32!) assists in the last two years on a ridiculous number of crosses and dead balls. Am I rethinking his position? Maybe … (Calvin Bassey (Fulham) has plenty of potential but it hasn’t been a straight line … I’ve watched both Luca Netz (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and Adrien Truffert (Rennes) and admire them as players, they just narrowly got beat is all … I am intrigued by Toral Bayramov, who plays for Qarabağ FK in the Azerbaijan Premier League. He’s skilled and has bagged plenty of PKs … Marc Cucurella (Chelsea), I just can’t quit you … Yukinari Sugawara (AZ) is a dynamo. Every time I turn his tape on, he’s doing something interesting and unexpected, and never seems to tire. I’m surprised he’s done four years at AZ … Quentin Merlin (Marseille) falls into that more standard full-back profile that always seems to lose out in a head-to-head for me … Jon Pacheco (Real Sociedad) has good progressive numbers and is a beast in the air … Caleb Wiley (Atlanta United) has a nice technical base … Arthur Theate (Rennes) is a great option on paper. I’ve just thought his touches were a bit loose … Juninho Capixaba (Red Bull Bragantino) stacks the statbook in the Brasileirão … Remember Otávio from Porto? No, the other one. The LCB. He looked really good.
There are many, many others. I probably forgot somebody great. Let’s move on.
👉 Right-Sided Options
Options for a more right-leaning defender could be a long-read in itself. If top targets on this side are missed out upon, I could see that pivot happening — though there would probably have to be a corresponding outgoing, and I certain profiles as unlikely.
Off the top of my head, here are some possibilities. Bayern has four options in addition to Mazraoui (Stanišić, de Ligt, Upamecano, Kim Min-Jae); Wilfried Singo and Mohamed Simakan offer so much, but they feel too much of an overlap with Timber/White/Tomiyasu; there are more flexible up-and-comers like Ousmane Diomandé, Anel Ahmedhodžić, and Maximilian Oyedele Kayode, who offer plenty of appeal; there are hot properties like Dean Huijsen and Leny Yoro; and prospects like Abakar Nagalo and Héctor Fort … An inverted MF we’ll assuredly be discussing is Archie Gray … You know I love Lutsharel Geertruida.
🔥 In conclusion
As I go to hit publish, James McNicholas has published a story that says the following:
Arsenal would like to add a specialist left-back but any such deal would most likely require one of their existing options to depart.
I, ultimately, believe that the current squad can offer acceptable depth on the left side. Timber, in particular, is fully capable of taking it and making it his own — even if he uses the wrong foot.
With that said, I don’t think a left-footed coterie of Gabriel, Kiwior, and Zinchenko is necessarily reflective of this team in its final form, either. We must always remember to aim high, as Arsenal are competing with a juggernaut who gave Nathan Aké 41% of the available minutes in the Champions League.
We’ve discussed some rare, interesting profiles today.
It’s a high bar, but there is an option to improve, it should be taken.
What do you think?
Can we take 90 mil for a midfielder and 40 mil for a left back and turn it into 130 mil and chuck it all at Real for Camavinga
Missed these BBQ. Keep up the good work my friend. Would like your views on the potential outgoings as well.