The Next Day

A still-punch-drunk overanalysis of an alluring pre-season friendly, including the debuts of Rice and Timber, the impacts of right inversion, and the reliable brilliance of the brilliant

It’s been a beautiful week since we last spoke. Real football was played. Kai Havertz made his first appearance, then Declan Rice and Jurriën Timber officially signed. An away kit which can only be described as an “assault on the eyes” debuted. A skills challenge was had, then memed. At one point there were goalie wars.

And finally: we got our first glimpse at how all the new parts may fit together against the MLS All-Stars.

It was, frankly, everything I could have ever wanted.

Here’s where I’m supposed to say that pre-season is meaningless, that we shouldn’t overrate performances, yadda yadda yadda.

I think there’s plenty to glean. Let’s examine some moments that caught my eye.

(P.S. The scouting platform I use doesn’t have this game yet, so I hope you like gifs!)

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☝️ The first half

The scoring began with a Gabriel Jesus curler.

Though he genuinely saw time on the wing during spells last week, the game against the MLS All-Stars saw him slot back into his expansive version of false-9’ing that we saw last year to such good effect.

When we did an investigation of his missed chances last year, we were reminded of how technical and slick his finishes can actually be further from the net, despite public perception. His problems stem from overdribbling in the box, causing him to get too close to the keeper — or for the ball to fall behind his plant foot, making it hard to control. If he takes longer shots, more goals will probably follow.

But the play started further back. You’ve heard my weekly treatises on rushed recoveries: how the top players calmly pass upon acquisition, instead of slapping it away. It is one of the most tangible differences between the new generation of Arsenal signings (Kiwior, Timber, Rice, etc) and the last (Holding — and in truth, Tierney has a tendency to try to “get it away” as well, but it may be more fixable).

In a small but pivotal moment, Gabriel didn’t punt. He one-touched it right to Jorginho, who then found Saka sprinting in behind:

Saka was incredible, of course. As seen in the EURO qualifiers when playing with Trent Alexander-Arnold, Saka is becoming increasingly aggressive at prodding the backline for opportunistic runs. This will have several knock-on effects.

For one, it’ll lead to goals. It led to the other first-half goal, as well:

And secondly, it’ll make defenders less confident about hanging with him and shoving him in the back. If he’s more likely to sprint behind you at any time, you’re less comfortable about showing that kind of aggression. It’s all connected.

Unsettling the offside trap is always good. By Saka moving and dragging players, Martinelli may benefit as well. Havertz — who can probably be accused of taking “prodding the offside trap” too far during the course of his career — may increase his margin of error.

Which brings us back to the second goal of the night. Trossard is capable of finishes that make me laugh with glee instead of celebrate:

Showcasing for the third consecutive appearance in the continually-upward LAM/LCM/“left-8” role, Trossard gets to showcase everything that makes him special: little box movements, false 9-ing, and finishing. While he can lack the pace and power to take down opponents wide on the wing, he can certainly ball here, and it’s also a nice home for his multi-footed crossing to the far-post.

Here’s what we wrote the day after he signed:

Early yesterday, I said “do you want to hear my Trossard-in-Xhaka-role propaganda now or later?” I was mostly kidding: in the near-term, I think Trossard is gonna fill in most on the LW, and rotate everywhere else across the frontline in spurts.

But in the longer-term, I do believe there’s something there. As we covered in detail last time, the old summaries of the responsibilities of the left-8 are no longer sufficient. Arteta himself refers to the twin 10’s as “left attacking midfielder” and “right attacking midfielder.”

Trossard covers many of the new responsibilities to perfection: elite movement in the box, ability to show danger in all three spots of a triangle with the LW and inverted LB, high pressing intensity, positional discipline, and the work rate to get back as a face-up defender and support Zinchenko. There will be plenty to iron out: despite the shortened list of requirements in build-up, is he secure enough on the ball to make it work? (For Xhaka’s lack of agility in the middle third, he’s got half as many miscontrols, despite fewer touches). Can his ability to carry the ball up offset that potential concern? We’ll see.

All that said, parking him in that left half-space, which is the closest thing we have to a shadow striker, would put him in his happy place — and perhaps put us in ours. There isn’t a long list of Premier League players you’d rather have hanging out in those positions.

With all the new signings, it appears Arteta is making a simple transaction. By adding best-in-world defensive coverage ahead of the backline, and increasingly playing CB-types with high potential in build-up, that LAM role can drop some of its less glamorous responsibilities and go all-out for goals. This may, at last, “break the seal” and transform this into a team that can score 4, 5, or 6 with increasing regularity.

It is a transaction, and transactions usually have some element of risk. As you saw, and as Brighton fans will remember, some inconsistencies can show up with Trossard when dropping deep, back to goal.

He can also have shaky moments when looking to properly weight passes across the pitch. He was a 63.5% medium-range passer for Brighton last year.

But those “risks” were immediately cleaned up by a bullying, borderline unfair back-two of Saliba and Gabriel. Saliba’s dominance all night was, candidly, a bit rude.

Another story of intrigue was Eddie Nketiah playing a somewhat typical incarnation of left-wing, where he looked a bit awkward last year — taking direct routes to goal, and being a bit one-speed and predictable with his take-ons. He showed more glimmers against the MLS, including some of the nice interactions with Jesus that we saw last pre-season but were too rare thereafter:

I’ve always considered his consideration at winger to be a bit of a non-starter, but perhaps it’s time I update my perception.

Finally, Jakub Kiwior. It doesn’t require a pro scout to identify that this is pretty good profile: he’s 6-2, can sprint past anybody for fun, and has one of the higher-ceiling passing repertoires around. But patient, we must be.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about last week’s game against Nürnberg was Kiwior’s move to the midfield pivot — filling in many of Zinchenko’s responsibilities, with some tweaks. He showed both ridiculous promise and plenty of teething moments, and his involvement allowed some interesting sing-song moments with Gabriel.

His one-touch stuff led to chances:

…and, perhaps most intriguingly, his presence allowed more freedom for Saliba and Gabriel. For one, they are both overly-restrained dribblers, and Gabriel is comfortable out wide. For another, many of Gabriel’s early-season errors last year were the product of being over-interventionalist given his surroundings. With Kiwior instead of Zinchenko beside him, he can follow his impulses:

But being a midfield pivot is tough labor, and the learning curve is unforgiving. One of the primary reasons for this is because of the necessity of determining your action before receiving the ball. If you decide what to do once you get it, you’re already too late. He did a lot of that yesterday.

Scanning is a funny topic. On youth pitches throughout the world, in the very moment you read this drivel, there are coaches screaming at their players to scan — without helping them appreciate what they’re looking for, when, and why.

Arsenal conveniently boasts one of the most purposeful scanners in the world in Martin Ødegaard. He is so good that years ago, while at Heerenveen in the Eredivisie, he was used by researcher Geir Jordet as the positive example of how to do it:

The short version: players should eye the most information-rich aspect of the pitch at all times. Generally speaking, that means looking at the ball each time the teammate touches it, and scanning in-between touches — and then scanning once more while the ball is on its way. They shouldn’t look just to look.

When watching a player like Kiwior, you’ll see how those subtleties come into play — and then result in a decisive action or a clumsy one.

The speed of such decision-making through the middle is often the real learning curve for players joining the Premier League, as much as physicality. On that front, that’s what often happened with Fábio Vieira last year: he’d gather the ball, look up, and then it was too late. Early signs about improving his “processing speed” are looking positive, but there’s more to come.

In any case, this build-up — with Kiwior, Jorginho, Trossard, and Vieira — would have likely been too imprecise (and small in the midfield) to survive a Premier League press. If Kiwior keeps his trajectory up, he’ll be able to provide smaller players a better platform, but they will still be vulnerable on set pieces.

And as we get carried away, I say this to myself as much as others: remember, my dearests — Zinchenko is very, very, very good.

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✌️The second half

We can still admit that things are a little strange.

The year is 2023, and Jorginho is shipping penalties for Arsenal Football Club in a kit that looks like some kind of special-edition Lando Norris helmet:

Things really popped off with some of the most interesting preseason second-half subs that one can imagine. And despite all the rightful anticipation of Declan Rice, the show-stealer of the game itself was, undoubtedly, Jurriën Timber.

Right after subbing on, I was curious to feel out where he’d be playing, especially as his signature was only secured a few days ago. Would he a more conservative RB/CB hybrid while he got his feet wet, playing in the White iteration of the role — or could he immediately slot in as the expansive Rightchenko Who Was Promised?

The answer we got was immediate and conclusive. Here was his first action:

I think I speak for everyone when I say: lol.

Right after the initial links, I pumped the Timber BBQ with Caicedo comparisons, and was most bullish about his prospects in this inverted-midfield role — but also shared my inner monologue that these things are difficult and may take time:

Then, we dream. I think he’s got sky-high potential through the middle as a true inverted partner (from CB or, more likely, RB), and think the current squad — particularly with the addition of Havertz — is crying out for the option of a Right Zinchenko as a base … He is comfortable and ticks every box, and this is probably where his potential is most exciting. But we must be realistic about what can reasonably be expected of a player who just turned 22 and is making a big leap. He may take off immediately; he may require a bit to ease in; it may never really happen. (I may be more rosy about his immediate potential here than I am letting on; I just think some patience is probably healthy).

As it turns out, we didn’t have to wait. Virtually every Timber action was spicy, showing hip-turns, carries, off-ball runs, anticipation, and a variety of clever little passes. Most pivot-ally, for the purposes of this role, he also demonstrated the ability to receive in the midfield with his back to goal:

We got our first clue that he may be after real minutes last week, when White was rotated at RCB. If the latter was the presumed, every-week starter at right-back, and Timber was seen as depth across both positions, White probably wouldn’t be building so many reps back there. Said Arteta after the game about Timber:

“He’s a really versatile player. We can use him in different positions within those positions. He gives you the capacity to invert and occupy different spaces. He’s so comfortable on the ball in that phase. As well he’s got that aggression in the duels and that dynamism which I really like. You saw with his first action, high press won the ball straight away, won the duel and was ready to go. He is going to be a really important player for us.”

It’s easy to get shiny toy syndrome and overrate a performance like this. In this case, like Jesus and Saliba last year, I think the excitement is warranted.

I may be out on limb here, but I think he has fairly elite defensive potential in this role as well. He is an expert front-foot, ground dueler, as you saw in the first clip. He had shaky moments last year because he is the type to opportunistically float up the pitch, instead of anchoring a back-line by himself, which leaves things exposed if there’s nobody behind. Combine that with not being tall or particularly good in the air, and some impressions will form that don’t necessarily extend to this role.

This is a player whom a strange old task-master dinosaur started in the World Cup at centre-back over the likes of de Ligt, Botman, and de Vrij. It was a wide role, of course, but if you’re anything close to a liability, or not generally the quality of an EPL CB, that’s not happening — and that’s a higher-responsibility portfolio that he’d have for Arsenal.

Furthermore, projection isn’t necessary: you can pull tape on him against Haaland, Alvarez, Messi, Núñez, and others. Every once in a while he can get caught up the pitch or turned on a change of direction, but by and large, he does his thing. When paired with a more disciplined, imposing profile behind, as he was with VVD in the World Cup and Lisandro Martínez the year prior, his potential off-the-ball is extremely high, IMO.

He’s coming for real minutes, and if you were to ask me for a prediction, it’s as simple as this: White starts when Zinchenko plays, Timber starts when he doesn’t — and the latter has the potential to turn into Arteta’s preference.

That is not because of Zinchenko, necessarily — who, I repeat, is very very very good — but because of all of the downstream effects of “right inversion.” Here’s what we wrote in late-June:

But when the team inverts from the right (likely via Timber), there are going to be four CB’s around the backline, which will allow him to stay in the first phase, but “cover” the left attacking midfielder — potentially Havertz — and bomb forward in certain situations, as Havertz likes doing wide interplay.

Build-up shape

Rice will still be exceptional when paired with Zinchenko, but this twist, in effect, brings Rice’s qualities to the maximum: enormous coverage, central position in the “rest defence,” the ability to carry and bomb forward, the leftward tilt. Especially if you see the position of the LAM above, and consider Trossard and Havertz’s likelihood of going out to the touchline, you’ll see a wide-open lane through the left half-space for an aggressive carry. For all the consternation about his role, this is essentially everything good about a 6 and a box-to-box in one role.

Which brings us to his performance. There was nothing particularly surprising about the usage of Rice. He was calm, communicative, secure, and boss-like. Thanks to Timber’s inversion, Rice was able to play in his happy place: floating down the left flank, then covering everything behind, and even getting a shot off. When Zinchenko plays, he’ll lean right.

As far as his additive qualities go, we saw the sheer range of his coverage: he dropped into left-back during transition, he swung around to the backline and guarded in a RCB-ish spot later in the half, he did it all. But it was a considered performance, and let’s face it: the best part was seeing him run on the pitch in an Arsenal kit. I’m still programmed to disbelieve that it’s real.

Next up, let’s talk about Havertz and Ødegaard.

Here’s what we covered on the pairing last week:

• The positioning of Havertz and Ødegaard in the block is the trickiest question related to the former’s entry into a primary XI (I know, I know, there’s no primary XI). As I’ve shared elsewhere, if they start together, I’d tend to lean toward Ødegaard joining the middle block over Havertz for a couple reasons.

• The off-ball, creative, spatial running of Havertz is perhaps his best quality. This gets him cheating up front and interacting with Jesus as much to do it. (Side note, as a warning: get ready for a good deal of offside calls against him.)

• Ødegaard runs as much as any player in the game — so him playing deeper does not preclude him getting further up in settled possession. Upon a repossession, this also gives him the option to ping balls to runners like Martinelli and Havertz from deeper positions.

This combines to form the vision of a slightly lower, more ball-dominant version of the skipper — a little more Modrić than KDB. The discussion, then, is how much this impacts his output, and whether that can be offset elsewhere.

The initial results are … promising. Captain Ø looked shot out of a fucking cannon, and for all the ballyhoo over Timber, let us not mince words: the best players on that pitch were still Saka, Saliba, and Ødegaard.

Questions over the roles in the block are build-up are still in need of further data. From what I saw, Ødegaard was often the low man, but there also may have been a simple machination at play in both phases: the ball-side midfielder would drop a little bit (in build-up or when defending), and the far-side player would just push high. With the ball, I know which one of them I’d prefer to have a lot of touches — and which one I’d like to have making off-ball, advanced runs.

Out-of-possession, in all likelihood it’ll just be a more disciplined, standard 4-4-2 block with the assumed roles. Don’t fix what isn’t broken. But if it gets a little bit more press-like and modular, it’ll be interesting to watch:

Furthermore, we saw a more expansive, creative version of Havertz — albeit against beleaguered, slow MLS defenders on a humid night. I’ve seen a lot of analysis mention his “right-side bias” when playing, but I have a slightly different view.

It is true that throughout his career, he’s drifted to the right a lot during transition and build-up, and he’s simply played over there more. But once possession gets advanced, he has clear ways of reliably scoring goals: (a) with his head, and (b) with a left hook across his body. Despite all his time there, you’ll see a big gap in goals through the right half-space. Over there, he’s more likely to “push” the shot and flub it:

If I’m looking for goals — and I am — I know where I’d rather he be.

From there, some final notes:

• Martinelli also looked fantastic, and for whatever reason, he hasn’t been central to conversations lately. That should change soon: his trajectory continues, unabated. He will benefit greatly from more dynamism and wing-rotations from the LAM spot, and if Ødegaard is deeper or floating left more, get ready to see some more Brighton-style sprints to the goal.

• I was so happy to see Tomiyasu in various CB roles. I’ve always thought he has 90% of the qualities of a great full-back but 100% of them as a great CB, and this will hopefully be more kind to his muscles. I was not expecting him back so soon; everything is coming up Milhouse.

• Marquinhos is still figuring out his levels, but I thought his appearance was positive. He’s really good at playing teammates in from the wing. He needs minutes — young players can’t improve unless they play. He feels one successful loan year away.

• The LCB/LB hybrid role, with Timber inverting, is indeed a much better use of Tierney’s skillset — and I'd be anxious to use it against top right-wingers. While it can feel a bit like a more traditional, touchline full-back role, it can still be incredibly ball-intensive, though: White could be trusted to pump in 70-80 secure passes at will. I have niggling concerns about Tierney’s ability to retain the ball at similar levels, but as depth — potentially third-choice depth, mind you — it’s hard to imagine much better.

• Jorginho and White, still good at football.

• Some Havertz 4-2-4 is definitely looking like it could be on the menu.

• Balogun is the good kind of headache. Though the writing seems to be on the wall there, I may have an upcoming post about him.

It’s been a thrilling week. And as much as we should celebrate the new signings, I find myself mentally celebrating somebody else with equal vigor: Mikel Arteta.

When asked about the fans in America, he had this to say:

“It’s great. We are obviously a massive club with a tremendous impact in world football.”

Indeed.

Happy grilling everybody.

P.S. While you’re here, go listen to The Next Day by Bowie. It is an underappreciated masterpiece.

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